Such and Such

Congrats to both the Penguins and Red Wings. Im looking forward to this final, which is more that can be said for the previous two rounds. To Pittsburgh fans: while you may seem to be on the precipice of a dynasty with all those great young players, make sure to enjoy this experience while it lasts. It could turn out to be rather fleeting - take it from a Flames fan.

To Detroit fans: I hate you spoiled, spoiled bastards.

An now, apropos of nothing: iceless skating. Seriously.

Note my furrowed brows

Does anyone else have a sinking feeling that Todd Fedoruk is going to become a Flame in the near future?

Perhaps this horrible calamity could be prevented by my turning to the dark side?

Or maybe it's just me...

Four million reasons to trade Adrian Aucoin

A little while ago, Frequent Commenter Ngthagg and I had a back and forth regarding Adrian Aucoin. Here's his comment, which is the jumping off point for this discussion:

I think Aucoin may have a bit more value than some people think. Look at his numbers:

10g/25p
+13
20:57/game
37PIM

I don't know if that's worth $4M, but it's worth more than bugger all. Those are the numbers of a reliable offensive dman. And it's hard to say if he'll take a step back next year, since this year was such a drastic improvement over his time in Chicago.

Quite sensible. Aucoin's counting numbers are certainly nothing to sneeze at and were actually some of the better ones on the Flames back-end. The more I've thought about it, though, the more Im convinced that Adrian will indeed take a step back next year.

Firstly, keep in mind Aucoin played against nobodies all year and spent over four minutes on the PP with Phaneuf/Iginla/Huselius/Langkow. Almost anyone playing beside Phaneuf sees an increase in their PP efficacy - just ask Andrew Ference. "Friendly surroundings" and all that. And speaking in general terms, I've found that players that excel only in the cuddliest of circumstances tend to fall back eventually (because circumstances can't always be cuddly). For evidence see: Tom Preissing.

Secondly, Aucoin's favorable results from this past season represent a bunch of near-career-bests, suggesting a regression back to the norm is in order next year. The 76 games he played was the most he's managed since 03-04, His 35 point total was the 2nd best of his career and the 8.3 shooting percentage was his highest since that 23 goal season in Vancouver all the way back in '98. His career averages for the various categories are:

GP - 59
goals - 7
points - 23
SH% - 5.5

Chances are, Aucoin falls back towards the mean in one, if not all, of these areas next year. Especially since he's a 34 year-old veteran of 13+ seasons.

Even considering the role of chance and easy minutes detailed above, like me, you may still be a little surprised by Aucoin's numbers, especially if you watched him lumber around all year. There were many times that Aucoin looked like a fairly terrible defender, particularly if he was caught on the ice with anyone of moderate skill. His +13 doesn't seem to jive with my qualitative perceptions of his abilities.

Which is why I wasn't surprised when I stumbled across Aucoin's name in this "horseshoes list" compiled by Jeff over at Sisu Hockey. What it shows is the players that seemed to benefit from complimentary difference in for/against team SH% while they were on the ice. As you can see, the Flames had a SH% of 10.6 versus a 6.4 SH% for the opponents while Aucoin was playing - a difference of 4.2%. I suppose it's possible he was driving these kinds of results, but, after watching him all year, I really don't think so. As Jeff notes:

I also removed the players who are obvious drivers of big % differences (Crosby, Malkin, Lidstrom, Getzlaf, Iginla etc). No point in including them - I'm looking for the guys who are due for a fall, guys you might want to avoid trading for.

Or, in the Flames case, avoid keeping on the roster when cap-space is a precious commodity. The more I look at Aucoin this off-season, the more I think trading him is the prudent move. All arrows point to a big step backwards next year; if Adrian's 4M cap-hit is poor value when all the coins land on heads, he's going to look like a hideous boat anchor when the numbers start averaging out (just ask Chicago). Deal him now when his stats still look good and use the cap-space on a top 6 forward.

Talking up the VDG

Rob Kerr recently posted a summary of a discussion with QC Flames head coach Ryan McGill recently on his blog. Of interest were McGill's thoughts on the potential "NHL ready" guys, particularly considering the big clubs pressing need for cheap replacement players next year.

David Van Der Gulik is a guy who quietly made huge stride this year, according to his coach David is a guy that doesn’t do one thing really well but does a bunch of things very well.

I've championed VDG around these parts previously, based mainly on stats and third-hand accounts (as I've never really been able to see him play). Last year, the 24 year-old RW led the team in terms of plus/minus, while putting up respectable, if unspectacular, offensive numbers (16-27-43).

Stats-wise VDG didn't seem to take a step forward this season, although one has to consider the team around him was considerably worse than the 06-07 version: no Richie Regehr, Mark Giordano, Dustin Boyd, Eric Nystrom, Andrei Taratukhin or Curtis MceLhinney (for a portion of the season). Plus Daniel Ryder's thing. That's at least two top 2 defenders, 3 significant forwards and a number 1 goalie, gone without adequate replacement. It's hardly a wonder the team didn't make the play-offs.

McGill's comments made me take another look at VDG's numbers at the end of the year. He ended up 4th in terms of scoring with 42 points and tied for 3rd in goals with 19. He was also the only forward on the entire squad with a plus rating (+3) and one of only two players in the black by this measure (Palin, at +14, was the other). From what I can gather from shaky messageboard reports, VDG was the teams top penalty killer (also, team leader in SHG with 3) and frequently played against the tougher competition. If that's true, then the fact that he scored at a decent pace against a good level of competition, with only secondary PP time and away from the clubs other offensive threats (Stevenson and Kolanos) is encouraging. What that seems to suggest is, Gulik can drive a positive GD, even against tough competition and even though he doesn't score a lot himself. That's good.

The thing being, the kid's not exactly a kid anymore and the time is rapidly approaching for the Flames to fish or cut bait with VDG if he's to be anything more than AHL fodder. From the scraps of evidence I can find, David looks like the kind of player Nystrom was expected to be, but has thus far failed to (and likely never will) be. Hell, if Nystrom, Godard or Mark Smith can make the Flames, surely VDG can be afforded a shot this season.

Other guys mentioned in the article are: Matt Pelech and Adam Pardy ("close to NHL level") and team scoring leader Grant Stevenson. Conspicuously absent: Kris "I wish I was back in the BCHL" Chucko.

Looking Ahead

With the 07-08 season in the rear-view mirror it's probably time to start investigating the Flames present and near future. As we've already established, Sutter has some significant challenges in store for him this summer, especially if the goal is to take a step forward rather than tread water (or fall back).

The Forwards

For the sake of this discussion, Im going to assume the rumored Langkow and Giordano contracts are true.

Firstly, here's what the clubs forwards depth chart currently looks like (cap hit in parentheses).

Tanguay (5.25)-Langkow (5?)-Iginla (7)
?-Lombardi (1.817)-?
Nilson (1)-Boyd (.543)-Moss (.550)
?-Primeau (1.4)-?

(Prust, Van Der Gulik ?)

Total: 22.56M

UFAs (projected salary/year):

Huselius (4.5)
Conroy (1)
Nolan (1.5)
Yelle (.700)
Mark Smith (.550)
Eric Godard (.550)
Eric Nystrom (.700)
Stevenson (.700)

We can guess almost immediately that Eric Godard and Eric Nystrom will be re-signed. I personally don't have much use for either of them, but the coach and management seemed to like both guys last year. I think we can also guess that Huselius and Smith will walk this summer, Juice because the grass really is greener elsewhere and Smith because he's pretty much useless.

That leaves Conroy, Nolan and Yelle. Some tough decisions. While Nolan and Conroy weren't very adept in the offensive zone last year, they both proved they can still contribute to some degree, even against tough competition. Re-signing one or both of them will depend largely on their salary demands and how much Sutter is willing to invest in players that aren't a 2nd line LWer (the teams most glaring weakness with the ouster of Huselius). An additional variable may be the Primeau contract: if Sutter can somehow rid the club of that burden, he may be able to get both Conroy and Nolan back for another year.

As for Yelle, I fear his time as a Flame has come to a close. He's no longer an elite PKer and his offensive game has spiraled into total non-existence. While I dont think he should be put out to pasture just yet, he looks like the most expendable of the three players mentioned to me.

Tanguay-Langkow-Iginla
(free agent)-Lombardi-Moss
Nilson-Conroy-Nolan
Nystrom-Boyd-Godard
(Van Der Gulik?)

New total: 24.91M

Potential UFA LW:

Naslund
Fedotenko
Gelinas
Stillman
Nagy
Shanahan
Malone
Hagman
Pandolfo

Ugh. Boy oh boy it's a thin crop. Guys like Hagman and Malone who had career seasons this year are going to be overpaid this summer. Naslund will probably be too expensive and is unlikely to sign here anyways. Gelinas and Shanahan are getting to old for top 6 ice-time. And Nagy is the cock-tease type who is too injured and too lacking in passion to deliver on the promise suggested by his talent level.

The top candidates from where I sit are Fedotenko, Stillman and Pandolfo. Of the three, only Stillman has what many would consider "top 6" type offense and will likely be the most expensive. He isn't much of checker, but can produce on the PP.

Fedotenko is a 15-20-35 guy who is speedy and can play against a decent level of competition without being overwhelmed. Flames fans "saw him good" during the 03-04 finals.

Jay Pandolfo is ideally a shut-down forward. He has the most modest offensive totals out of the three, but he also tends to play against the toughest competition. Pandolfo actually had a pretty decent ESP/60 rate last season over 54 games (1.99/60) relative to his teammates (and Stillman and Fedotenko, actually), which is encouraging considering who he was playing with and against every night. He was also tied for the best ES +/- rating (+9) amongst NJD forwards.

Last year, Stillman made 1.750M (cap-wise), Fedotenko made 2.90M (!) and Pandolfo made 0.836M. Feds is the youngest at 28 while Pandolfo and Stillman are 32 and 33 respectively.

Looking at the numbers now, I'd be really surprised if NJ allowed Pandolfo to walk. He's incredibly good value, even if he deson't put up great counting numbers. Assuming he's available though, that's the guy I'd like to see Sutter target. He'll be cheap, he can play against anybody and he was a plus player on a club that wasn't very good at scoring at ES last year. Unfortunately, he's unlikely to add much in the way of PP scoring.

Assuming a contract of about 1.5M, adding Pandolfo and a 700k 13th forward (Prust, Van Der Gulik, etc), the depth chart becomes

Tanguay-Langkow-Iginla
Pandolfo-Lombardi-Moss
Nilson-Conroy-Nolan
Nystrom-Boyd-Godard
(Van Der Gulik)

Total: approx 27.11M.

Strengths: Top 3 lines can all take on tough competition without being overwhelmed.

Weaknesses: Team is even more top-heavy, with an almost complete lack of legitimate offensive threats outside the #1 line. Depending on how Boyd and Nystrom progress, the 4th line looks like a loser again to me as well (boy I hope Im wrong about the Godard thing).

Defense

Here's where the rubber really hits the road. Lots of bad money on this part of the roster that absolutely must be purged in the off-season if Sutter wants the Flames to be competitive next year (and to subsequently keep his job as the team's GM).

Depth chart (cap-hit):

Regehr (4)-Sarich (3.6)
Phaneuf (6.5)-Aucoin (4)
Giordano(.80)-Eriksson (1.5)

Warrener (2.35)

Total: 22.75M

UFAs (projected salary/year):

Hale (.600)
Vandermeer (1.5)

The issues afflicting the back-end are glaring and obvious.

First of all, Warrener's contract has to go away through whatever means necessary (short of buying him out). Even when he's healthy (which is rare) his contributions fall well short of his cap hit. If he does nothing else this Summer, Sutter absolutely MUST get rid of Warrener. To put it into perspective, Daz could conceivably re-sign both Giordano and Vandermeer for about what Warrener's salary is worth.

Next up on the hit list is my favorite punching bag, Anders Eriksson. Bubba proved beyond a shadow of a doubt (at least to me) that he's little more than a fringe NHL player at this stage in his career. Although he could probably be a capable enough 6th/7th defenseman, like Warrener, his cap-hit is out of line with his role. Deal him for bag of sweaty jocks, waive him, send him to the farm...just get rid of him.

Im more ambivalent about Adrian Aucoin however. He was decent on the PP this season and wasn't too much of a liability at ES as long as he was sheltered. 4M is still poor value, but at least Aucoin can help the team win in some manner. His NTC and bigger salary also make it more difficult to deal or send him to the minors. My feeling is Aucoin will be sticking around unless Sutter can somehow deal him and get something worthwhile coming back.

Regehr-Sarich
Phaneuf-Vandermeer/replacement
Aucoin-Giordano

Hale or Pardy

Total: approx 21M

Strengths: Cheaper, a little more mobile, with at 3 least PP capable defensemen.

Weaknesses: Still a gap in the top 4 (Vandermeer is more a 5-6 guy), unless Gio has taken a couple leaps forward.

Altogether

Forwards -- 27.1M
Defensemen -- 21M
Goalies (Kipper @ 5.833M + Back-up @ .700M) -- 6.533M
-------------------
54.64M

It's a pretty tight squeeze, even granting the eliminations of Warrener, Eriksson and Primeau and cheaping out on the top 6 LW signing. If the cap falls short of the expected 56M ceiling, then dealing one of Aucoin or even Tanguay for cheaper pieces becomes a necessity (and yes, Tanguay has a NTC as well).

Whatever Sutter makes, he's going to earn it this summer. As you can see from my hypothetical scenario above, he's facing quite the boondoggle. Perhaps the best part about the impending budget crunch is Darryl will be forced to abandon some of his bad habits. There won't be any money or room for reclamation projects (Friesen), comfortable vets (Primeau) or "experienced" defensemen (Eriksson, Zyuzin). It's "adapt or die"for this management team this summer I think. Im really quite interested to see which it will be.

Flames Season Review - Part Two

The GM says the toughest calls he'll have to make this summer aren't necessarily tied to a list of unrestricted free agents that includes Kristian Huselius, Owen Nolan, Stephane Yelle, Jim Vandermeer, David Hale and Curtis Joseph.

"Those aren't the tough decisions," said Sutter. "It's the guys already under contract who aren't earning what they're making. There's a number of those guys that, based on their careers, they're third- and fourth-line guys. Well, every one of our forwards in Quad Cities (the Flames' top farm club) can play on our third and fourth lines."

- Calgary Herald via Matt.

The Black Hole

During the slow summer months last off-season I put together a player typology post that detailed the four basic kinds of forwards available in the NHL: the Big guns, the soft comp eaters, the quellers and the even-stevens. I neglected to include a fifth, rather prevalent type: the lead weights. It is this latter kind of player that dominated the bottom of the Flames roster this year. And it's those guys Sutter is implicating above.

As such, allow me to present the black hole: Wayne Primeau, Marcus Nilson, Eric Godard, Stephane Yelle, Matthew Lombardi, David Moss, Mark Smith, Eric Nystrom and Dustin Boyd all took turns at the end of the rotation. Five of those players were gross liabilities at even-strength (Primeau, Godard, Smith, Nystrom, Boyd) to varying degrees and three of the remaining four players couldn't score with a two-four of gin at the prom (Nilson, Yelle, Moss). Matthew Lombardi was the only player of the 9 (!) mentioned that managed more than 10 goals or 30 points. He spent a lot of time skating with Primeau, Yelle, Nystrom and Boyd so his underlying numbers took a beating.

Most teams in the NHL have a couple players they have to hide at ES. They are your scrappers (Godard), your projects (Nystrom) and your raw rookies (Boyd). Ideally, a club has 3 or less of these guys in the line-up at any one time. Any more, and sheltering them becomes a significant chore.

There were many times during the regular season that the Flames had all five of the lead weights listed above (Primeau et al) dressed at the same time. Moss was injured a lot and Nilson spent most of the season as Keenan's pressbox punching bag, meaning one of Yelle or Lombardi was often tasked with trying to keep the shaky raft (sporting a couple of leaks and 5 anchors) afloat.

The result? Two de facto "4th lines", each with no chance of out-scoring the opposition and with little chance of playing them to evens.

The lack of an effective third unit was felt at the top of the roster as well, particularly by the Tanguay/Conroy/Nolan combination. The Flames "2nd line" was given the unenviable assignment of shutting down the other team's big guns WHILE providing some secondary offense behind the Iggy line. Tanguay et al. faced the toughest competition on the team with the obvious effect being a dampening of their offensive stats. And Conroy/Nolan are hardly scoring wizards in the first place.

When your secondary scoring unit is also your shut-down unit because everyone else below them can't be trusted to do either well -- you're in trouble. That the Flames were slightly above average this year in terms of ES scoring (145 GF, 12th) has everything to do with Jarome Iginla (65 ESP, 3rd, only Flame in the top 30) and Dion Phaneuf (26 ES points, 6th among defensemen) and concurrently suggests how good the team could have been with a few more competent supporting pieces.

Chasing Leopold

Only a few short seasons ago the Flames blueline was considered one of the best in the league. Think back to 05-06. Leopold, Regehr, Ference, Warrener, Phaneuf and Hamrlik were the top 6 defenders that year. Richie Regehr and Mark Giordano each got a cup of coffee that year as well.

This season? Regehr, Sarich, Phaneuf, Eriksson, Aucoin, Hale and Warrener (and Vandermeer) was the blueline squadron, with half of them doing favorable impressions of the key-stone cops on most nights. All for a bigger price-tag, naturally.

The defense was arguably the weakest part of the club this year. Like the forwards, the bottom of the rotation was littered with guys that either couldn't outplay the opposition no matter how soft it was (Warrener, Hale, Eriksson) or were poor value (Aucoin) or both (Warrener, Eriksson). And, like the forwards, there were many nights when the difference makers (Regehr, Phaneuf, Sarich) couldn't make up for their lackluster brethren.

The back-end's degradation since the onset of his tenure here is probably the strongest indictment of Sutter's management up till now. What was once young, effective and cheap has become older, ineffective and expensive.

Part of that has to do with the premium put on defenders since the lock-out. Ed Jovonovski is scheduled to make $6.5M next year for example. The escalating salary cap and high demand for blueliners likely ensured an inexorable increase in costs for that category of player.

Of course, the problem isn't that the Flames defense corps is high-priced relative to itself two seasons ago. Rather, the problem lies in the fact that it's expensive when compared to other clubs in the league right now; all of whom were/are subject to the same market forces as Calgary. Only 7 clubs had pricier bluelines than the Flames this season (Tor, Ana, Bos, Det, Edm, Mtl, Phi) and that was due almost entirely to Phaneuf playing under an entry level contract. With his and Regehr's raises kicking in next season (up to 6.5M and 4M respectively), the team is scheduled to have the heaviest back-end, cash and cap wise, in the entire NHL come September. Keep in mind, The approximate cap-value (21.95M) as it stands right now does not include replacements for Hale or Vandermeer , both of whom are set to become free agents July 1.

That figure would be forgivable if the defense had the performance and results to match it's big price tag. But, as immobile and bad with the puck as they were this year, there's a very real chance they'll be even worse next season: Eriksson, Aucoin and Warrener are all good bets to take a step or two backwards. Regehr and Sarich are probably at their ceilings now. Only Phaneuf has room and opportunity for real improvement. While there's talk in the media of coaxing Mark Giordano back into the fold and re-signing Vandermeer, their additions will only be beneficial if they occur in concert with a couple of deletions (Im looking at you Rhett and Bubba). The back-end not only has to get better in terms of skill and results going forward, it simultaneously has to get more efficient (ie: cheaper) as well. That's a fairly tall order, and one potentially beyond Sutter if we're to judge him based on his past efforts. When I consider the task at hand it invariably conjures that classic Bullwinkle line:

"Hey Rocky! Watch me pull a rabbit outta my hat!"

The Decline

I recently identified the three great tragedies of the Flames middling results from the last couple of seasons:

- Wasting back-to-back MVP type performances from Iginla.
- Frittering away Phaneuf's high value entry-level contract.
- Frittering away Kipper's high value median-level contract.

The final point may be the most tragic considering Kipper's downward trend since becoming a Flame: his yearly averaged SV% has steadily decreased since 03-04, culminating in this seasons throughly average .906 number. Whereas Phaneuf and Iginla will continue to deliver value for their contracts, Kipper is poised to become another expensive, un-tradable anchor should his slide into mediocrity continue. His just-okay results this year were a significant contributor to the teams just-okay results. If the unflappable Fin doesn't experience a bit of renaissance in 08-09, it may not matter what else Sutter does this summer - his team will be doomed to remain at the edges of play-off contention.

Flames Season Review - Part One.

I've decided to separate the season review into a couple of parts. This first post is centered on explicating the general processes that informed the Flames year, largely from the management perspective. In the second part, I'll concentrate on the particular manifestations of managements efforts in the Flames roster.

The best way to start off may be to establish that the 07-08 Calgary Flames weren't a bad team. They contended for the NW title for awhile in mid-season. They scored a couple more goals than they gave up. And they made the play-offs despite playing in a tough division and competitive conference.

The best way to continue may be to be to acknowledge that the 07-08 Calgary Flames weren't a good team either. They had the second worst GD of any WC play-off squad. They didn't even have average special teams. And they squeaked into the play-offs by the hairs of their chiny-chin-chin.

One of Darryl Sutter's favorite hobbies when granting interviews is to glibly dismiss the bleating of the press or fanbase as short-sighted or ill-informed. This year, as the club stumbled down the stretch and the possibility of missing the play-offs loomed large in March, Sutter answered the faithful's anxiety by peddling "parity": the team's tenuous grasp on a play-off position was attributed to the league's increasingly large middle class.

It's seems a legitimate argument on the face of it. Thanks to three-point games and the salary cap's influence on the concentration of talent, the difference between the "haves" and "have nots" has indeed been eroded since the lock-out. For exmaple, the Minnesota Wild won the NW Division with 98 points this year. The Canucks, who were a mere 10 points back, placed last. The difference between the two teams goal differentials was 7.

Even with that in mind, When I first heard the Sutter interview in March his claim struck me as a bit of ass-covering sophistry. "Okay is not okay" was one of his famous lines from the previous off-season. "Okay is simply inevitable" seemed to be the new Franchise motto come the end the regular season, however.

I guess the question is: is just okay...okay? Should fans and pundits be adjusting their expectations for the Flames given the landscape of the "new NHL"?

Bull-shit I say. I have a few weeks between me and that Sutter interview and it still strikes me as utter bullshit. The increased parity in the league hasn't eliminated elite teams; it doesn't ensure mediocrity across the board, nor does it explain the Flames second straight season as first-round fodder. The Calgary Flames have elite players at every level of their roster. Iginla, Tanguay, Regehr, Phaneuf, Kiprusoff. Two of those guys are top 10 forwards in terms of ES production, another 2 are top 10 defensemen (albeit in different ways) and Kipper is two years removed from a Vezina trophy. This isn't the foundation of a middling squad. This is a talent core Sutter has gone to pains to lock-up long-term, and for good reason - most GMs would kill for it.

Let's look at it another way. The Nashville Predators, who finished in 8th place, just behind Calgary, sold off a bunch of their difference makers last year. They dealt their #1 goalie, their #1 defensemen, a couple of younger pieces (Hartnell, Upshall) and lost Forsberg and Kariya in the summer. Due to ownership and budgetary concerns, the free agent signings and roster expenses were scaled back. Nashville ended up with a $36M team - a full 12M less than Sutter's roster. They muddled along with Dan Ellis and Chris Mason in net. Dan Hamhuis was their #1 defenseman and Shea Weber was injured half the year. Jason Arnott and JP Dumont were two thirds of their #1 line (not exactly beasts at taking on the tough competition) and Mike Sullivan didn't play a game thanks to his back issues...

Nashville ended the season with 3 less points than the Flames, and 1 less win. The team's goal differentials were virtually identical (+1, +2). Granted, the Predators played in the relatively weaker Central Division...but they also had less difference makers at key positions, a vastly cheaper roster and more injuries to significant pieces.

To my eye, the issue isn't simply "achieving a moderate level of success" that can be reasonably expected of most teams. The Flames aren't most teams. More accurately, they don't have to be. They don't have the budgetary concerns of a Nashville or Phoenix. They have an enviable core of talent - arguably superior than a number of clubs that sit above them in the standings (and are still playing in the post-season). The apparent "win-now" attitude of Sutter and management the last two seasons was not ill-advised given the quality of core players on hand. Ill-executed, perhaps. But sensible considering where guys like Kipper, Iginla, Regehr and Tanguay were (are) in their careers.

Ironically, it's been Sutter's flavor of "go for it" that has sunk the team into mediocrity since 03/04, and painted the franchise into the cap-strapped corner it's in now. His tendency to fill roster spots with known commodities - ex-Sutterites and veterans - has bloated the roster's budget and bled the team of cheap talent. As Darryl has gone about locking up key pieces to long-terms deals and exponentially more expensive contract extensions, he's also surrounded them with slowing vets (Nilson, Yelle, Primeau, Eriksson, Aucoin, Amonte) and dubious reclamation projects (Zyuzin, Friesen), many of whom for multi-year, multi-million dollar deals. The results, both this season and last, were two-fold:

- A cap inefficient roster - At various points this year, the Flames had Rhett Warrener (2.35M), Marcus Nilson (1M), Wayne Primeau (1.4M) and Anders Eriksson (1.5M) sitting in the press-box as healthy scratches. That's 6.25M (or difference-maker money) worth of dead-weight on any given night.And I didn't include 4M worth of Adrian Aucoin playing in the 3rd pairing, or guys like Smith (400k) or Godard (400k) skating around pointlessly. All of the bad money listed in the first sentence carries forward to next season, by the way.

- A relatively hostile development environment - The preponderance of million dollar vets makes for a crowded roster. Rookies and prospects not named "Dion Phaneuf" need some at bats to establish themselves as NHL caliber players. They require roster spots and time on the ice to develop. Spot duty on the 4th line with Godard or banishment to the press-box after a rough game - if you make the team at all of course - doesn't cut it. Mark Giordano outplayed a couple of vets (Zyuzin, Hale...Warrener arguably) last season on an already crowded blueline, despite being an undrafted freshman. Sutter, naturally, responded by offering him a nominal two-way deal and then signing useless tit Anders Eriksson to a one-way, multi-year, multi-million dollar contract in a sudden fit of "my cock is bigger than yours" when Gio understandably balked. Getting a fringe player like Eriksson for that long and for that kind of cash is questionable management on it's own. Losing a cheap, young, relatively effective replacement level player as a result is that much worse.

Even if the kids aren't any better than the incumbent vets initially, they have the advantages of being cheaper and potentially improving. Mark Giordano at 800k > Eriksson at 1.5M, even if their performance levels are comparable for the season, due in part to the cap-savings and in part to the potential development and progression of the youngster going forward. Eriksson at 1.5M and 30+ years old is, at best, a diminishing asset. You pay for the experience but the BEST he can do is play up to the value of his contract. Rookies are riskier in terms of the range and variance of their performance, but the gamble is accompanied by the attendant reward of a guy out-performing his salary. Which is gold in a capped environment.

I've heard arguments that Sutter has been constrained by the Flames rather lackluster collection of young talent during his reign. To some degree, that's true. Calgary's prospect cupboard was pretty bare when Sutter ascended to office in 04. He's spent time gathering draft picks and establishing a capable farm system the last 4 or 5 years. And good on him. But the fact that the Flames don't have a lot of sure-fire NHLers makes the loss of guys like Giordano and Taratukhin that much more egregious since the basic tenants of any given marketplace are: low supply/high demand. As such, if you don't have a great deal of high quality prospects, you should probably protect and covet the ones you DO have. Insisting your lone NHL ready defensive prospect agree to a two-way deal, for example, is a silly hill to die on.

Of course, suppressing the kids hasn't been Sutter's lone folly. That would be forgivable if he was loading up on good value vets in the kids stead. But he hasn't done that either. I think part of the reason Owen Nolan has been so favorably received this year is because he looked positively herculean when compared to many of Sutter's other recent acquisitions (Amonte, Friesen, Eriksson, Zyuzin, McCarty, Eriksson, Aucoin, Primeau, Lundmark, Boucher, Leclerc). Look at that list again. That's a whole lot of SUCK that's passed through here the last couple of years and a great deal of it wasn't (isn't) cheap. In the same time frame, the Flames have lost guys like Commodore, Lydman, Reinprecht, Kobasew, Ference, Gelinas, Donovan and the aforementioned defectors (Gio, Taratukhin) for little or nothing. And none of them are or were prohibitively expensive (Lydman and Gelinas are the priciest at about 2.8M each).

Sutter has done a great job of identifying and locking up the core big boys during his time here. Alternatively, he's done a fairly terrible job of identifying and installing good-value guys at the roster's edges. Which is why the results have been so average the last few years. There's been a couple decent contracts (Huselius @ 1.4, Lombardi @ 1.817 and Langkow @ 2.4), but not enough to overcome the sheer volume of bad-value guys. It's why the organization is at the precipice of it's most difficult and contentious off-season in Sutter's time here: a lot of the good value contracts go away and a lot of the dead-weight needs to be purged. The former is a guarantee to happen. The latter will require a small miracle.

Saving the Worst for Last

It was fun while it lasted, wasn't it? Right up until that final performance I guess.

Appropriately, all the problems that made the Flames an average team during the regular season were in full view last night. The immobile defense corps. The poor puck-distribution. The bad transition game. The lack of any kind of offensive push with Iginla off the ice. Mediocre goaltending. Losing the special teams battle. A veritable rogues gallery of the team's warts.

But first, let's get this out of the way: the Sharks played an absolute whale of game yesterday. They pressured the Flame's lumbering defense whenever they had the puck and turned the neutral zone into The Nightmarish Place of Inevitable Turn-overs. After SJS took the lead in the 2nd period, they executed a nearly perfect defensive game, excepting Primeau's fluke goal. They were, by far, the better team last night and deserve to move on. Full credit to them.

And now back to your regularly scheduled bitching --

Everything the Flames did well to stretch the series to a seventh game seemingly went out the window last night. The team's glaring weaknesses (*ahem* Eriksson) finally overwhelmed whatever ineffable force was holding them at bay the last couple of games. I think that goes back to Matt's screed on consistency in sports in general (and hockey in particular): Flames were good enough to bring it sometimes, but not all the time. In short, and to be perfectly glib about it - talent will out. And it finally did last night. Which is why we play 7 games I guess.

Probably a lot is going to be made of Keenan yanking Kipper after the 4th goal. From my perspective, the loss was a foregone conclusion at that point and it wouldn't have mattered what Keenan did from then on. His options were pretty limited - pull Kipper, call a time-out - and neither was going to make much of an impact. The team was being out-shot 3:1 at that point in the game and the Franchise goalie had allowed 4 goals mid-way through the second period. The Fat Lady was in costume and already warming up by the time Kipper sat down.

For what it's worth, I think Keenan did as much as can be expected with this roster. I certainly didn't agree with all of his moves this year - Godard in the line-up, Eriksson in the top 4, beating up on Juice down the stretch - but at least he managed to evoke something more than the limp whimper we saw from the club last April. I did like Keenan's active bench management during the series although there were times he even out-smarted himself. What Im getting at I guess is: I dont think Keenan was part of the problem like Nervous Jimmy was last year. I wouldn't be against Iron Mike returning as the Flames coach next year.

I'm going to hold off on the season's postmortem for now. Allow for some time to mourn. There's a lot to go over, but also a lot of time to go over it. I'll let the Furies rest for now.

Game 7 Preview - serious this time

It's down to a coin-flip. As noted over at Inside the Flames recently, this has been the most evenly matched series in the first round. Through the first six games, both teams have scored the same amount of goals, won the same amount of games, have had the same GD in their victories. Hell, the Flames and Sharks both have 9 GF at ES and 4GF at 5on4!

Perfectly symmetrical. Like boxing your reflection. And considering where I was before the series began, I couldn't really ask for much more than this -- an even chance to advance.

Calgary played a near perfect game on Sunday. They limited the Sharks chances, out-shot and out-hit them and stayed out of the penalty box. It would have been nice to see Alex Tanguay bury that golden opportunity in the first period so he shake that monkey he's been carrying the last week or so. Alas...

Wasn't it nice to have a functional fourth line (for the first time in recent memory) last game? My anonymous phone threats and letter bombs obviously got through to Keenan and he sat Godard in favor of a 7-d rotation. The resultant "enegry" line of Primeau, Moss and Nystrom was generally effective: they didn't spend inordinate amounts of time trapped in their own zone and actually generated some havoc for the Sharks at the other end. Hell, there was even a scoring chance or two squeezed in there, which is pure gravy when it comes to the bottom of the roster. Particularly the bottom of the Flames roster.

An ancillary benefit of playing all 12 forwards was a more even distribution of ice-time across the forwards ranks - Moss, Nyzerman and Primeau all played between 8 and 10 minutes - meaning a less beat-up and worn out Jarome Iginla for tonight's contest. Good news for certain.

The development of a reliable support cast is an encouraging one for me since I tend to take the view that the game and series isn't going to be won by the big guns so much as lost by the secondary players (if that makes any sense). The Flames have some elite talent up front, in the net and even on the back-end. Regehr, Iginla and Kipper are pretty much guaranteed to perform. It's the Eriksson's, Primeaus, Yelles and Aucoins that worry me as a Flames fan. It's the questionable Hale pass or another bad Bubba pinch that may end up making the difference, especially in such a hotly contested and evenly matched series.

The Sharks have ballers too: Thornton, Marleau, Clowe (!?), Nabokov, but they also have similar "issues": Brian Campbell seems to think the spin-o-rama is the best play by default at almost any place on the ice or time in the game. Milan Michalek is so snake bitten he's probably been soliciting teammates to suck out the poison during the intermissions...and Jody Shelly, well...he would lose to Eric Godard in a foot-race (not that Eric would win. They would both somehow lose simultaneously).

So while San Jose fans may be in search of a hero, chances are they'll just be cheering for one less screw-up. Just as I will.

Line-up notes:

I can't imagine Keenan changing anything after the victory on Sunday. Expect Godard and Boyd to sit, with Vandermeer taking spot duty up front and on the back-end. No doubt Wilson will try to get Thornton away from Iginla and Regehr this evening, likely through some crafty double-shifting type shenanigans. I said it above, but it bears repeating...if the Flames support guys can weather that storm and keep the galactic F-ups to a minimum, I like their chances in this game.

Prediction - yeah right.

GO FLAMES!

It's Now or Never. Tonights the Night. Etc.

Inspired by some of the coverage I've heard, seen and read in the MSM recently, I offer you my Say Nothing game 7 preview. Enjoy!

It's been a tough, hard-fought series so far. The Sharks started out by making the most of their chances and winning the battles in the hard areas of the ice. They seemed to have the momentum after their victories in game 2 and game 5 as their much maligned difference makers showed some of the heart and leadership that many have claimed has been missing in years past.

The Flames intangibles and play-off experience have helped them make a series of it, though. Some of the support players have stepped to the fore while Jarome Iginla has shown everyone why he wears the C on his jersey. It's been clear as day that Calgary has wanted it more recently, particular in the game 6 victory.

I think if the boys come out tonight and give 110% they stand a good chance of silencing the critics and advancing to the second round. If all 20 guys can play for the symbol on the front and not the name on the back, they will able to take the home crowd out of the equation and win bragging rights at the end of the day.

However, if the Flames fail to bring it tonight, then it is what is - a tough loss to a superior opponent. Whatever happens, though, Im sure we can all agree afterward: the better team won.

A Thousand Words

Game Six Preview - The End?

Even if tonight proves to be the last game of the season for the Flames, I've been relatively impressed with the boys performance in this series. They've matched one of the best teams in the league step-for-step and every single game has been close and hard-fought. It's certainly a far-cry from the limp, embarrassing performance they put in against the Wings last year and provides a modicum of hope heading into the off-season.

Course, my pseudo-eulogy could prove to be a bit pre-mature. Calgary may have lost the last game but they probably out-chanced the Sharks and were the better team on the ice aside from a few (but crucial) brain cramps. They have a good chance to win this game - and potentially the series - if they can keep it up.

Some of the Flames difference makers have been full value the last few nights. Jarome Iginla has proven to be the best player on both teams so far and his continued excellence may push the Flames over the top in the end. Dion Phaneuf has had some hiccups in his own end, but is still one of the league leaders in terms of scoring from the back-end and looks 500X times better than he has in the play-offs previously. After a rough first game, Robyn Regehr and Cory Sarich have been bloody fierce in their own end of the ice. And Matthew Lombardi, while still pointless, continues to be a significant presence in the defensive zone and on the PP. He's also generated a number of quality chances in the Sharks end and his 0 in the P column is more due to Nabokov or the offensive ineptitude of his line-mates than his own failings.

Since this may be my last chance to this, here's what I'd do if I were Keenan tonight:

Forwards:

Tanguay-Conroy-Iginla

Match this trio with the Thornton line. Sub in Lombardi if Conroy continues to struggle. We've seen previously that Iginla/Tanguay can out-play Thornton et al at ES. Keenan should therefore exploit this match-up on home ice.

Huselius-Langkow-Nolan

Play these guys against softer competition as much as possible. I still think Juice can do damage if managed properly.

Yelle-Conroy/Lombardi-Moss

Match them against Marleau's line at ES, depending on where he lands in the Sharks roster (ie: away from Thorton). Their mandate should be to spend as much time in the offensive zone as possible and limit chances against.

Nilson-Boyd-Primeau

Sit Nystrom and Godard, who are craters at ES, and sub in Boyd who can at least do something in the offensive end and on the PP. Reserve them for the soft underbelly and occassionally replace Iginla for Primeau. Boyd+Iggy against the Sharks 4th line might yield some quality chances now and then. Otherwise the regular trio including Nilson and Primeau shouldn't be as big a liability as the previous Godard-led combination(s).

Defensemen:

Sarich-Regehr

DUH!

Phaneuf-Vandermeer

Ideally, Vandy isn't top-4 guy and he had a rough night in game 5, but h still seems to be the best option to skate with Dion.

Aucoin-Hale

Aucoin has looked pretty awful lately. His lack of speed and agility have been gleefully exploited by some of the Sharks speedier players. Hale was sat in favor of Eriksson last game, but I still prefer him to the bumbling boobery of Bubba.

Feel free to add your own combos in the comments.

Prediction - a nerve-wracking OT ending.

Go Flames!