Saturday, October 24, 2009

Flames Scoring Chances, Game 2 versus Oilers

Scoring Chances for NHL Game Number 20021

TeamPeriodTimeNoteCGYOpponent
CGY118:0920 goal4716202334519323571915v5
EDM116:15 312212528341022243544835v5
EDM116:00 312212528341022243544835v5
EDM114:14PP chance421242834 1927353777914v5
EDM114:12PP chance421242834 1927353777914v5
EDM114:02PP chance421242834 1927353777914v5
EDM113:48 31517222834519273571915v5
EDM113:4727 goal31517222834519273571915v5
EDM110:52PP chance717222834 1022354471834v5
CGY17:5225 goal34122125341924323544 5v4
CGY17:18 316202428341022353777835v5
EDM16:10 78111722341327354467715v5
EDM11:26 47111623341932353777915v5
CGY10:01 4515172234513273567715v5
CGY219:03 312212528341022353777835v5
EDM214:40PP chance47172234 1927353777914v5
EDM214:39PP chance47172234 1927353777914v5
CGY27:36 31221252834510223571835v5
CGY26:393 goal3415172234513183544 5v4
EDM25:59 78112333341832353746775v5
CGY24:11PP chance51517222834519243235 5v4
EDM23:28 71620232834510222435 5v4
EDM22:34 45202233341924323544915v5
EDM22:0367 goal31122283334513273567715v5
EDM318:20 512212528341932353777915v5
CGY317:14 3416202434513242735675v5
CGY310:45 315162428341932353777915v5
CGY310:23 315162228341932353777915v5
EDM39:29 45172125341022243544835v5
EDM37:0089 goal4515172234518354671895v5
CGY36:30 4515172234513323567715v5
CGY35:26 312242528341019222435445v5
EDM31:06 417222528341932354477895v5


#PlayerEVPPSH
3D. PHANEUF18:40753:00203:0600
4J. BOUWMEESTER21:56452:47205:1905
5M. GIORDANO14:50240:51100:2000
7A. PARDY13:31130:19012:0103
8S. KRONWALL8:02020:00000:0000
11F. SJOSTROM10:07040:00001:4000
12J. IGINLA14:11331:41100:0000
15N. DAWES12:38432:39200:0000
16D. BOYD11:14510:08010:5700
17R. BOURQUE12:36262:08202:4403
20C. GLENCROSS11:58310:08012:1800
21O. JOKINEN14:36241:54100:2303
22D. LANGKOW14:44371:55203:0003
23E. NYSTROM10:47120:08011:3800
24C. CONROY8:36400:00003:2003
25D. MOSS13:26351:10100:0000
28R. REGEHR19:31670:57115:1404
33B. PRUST8:52030:00000:0000
34M. KIPRUSOFF48:0310133:57318:0006


PeriodTotalsEVPP5v3 PPSH5v3 SH
14103610000400
2462321000200
3545400000000
4000000000000
Totals1320101331000600


I'm currently re-watching some of the first few games of the year with the purpose of counting the scoring chances. This is the first of 4 games that will appear hear over the next week (games 2 through 5) not including any regularly scheduled games, of course.

I'd have to say this was probably the Flames luckiest win of the year thus far. They were grossly outshot and outchanced and I wouldn't have classified 3 of their 4 goals as chances if they hadn't gone in. In fact, I excluded the final Moss tally outright since it was little more than a giant error by Khabibulin that led to the goal. I think the win could have very easily been a 5-1 loss if not for some favorable bounces and Patrick O'Sullivan missing repeatedly missing the net on glorious scoring chances.

The only Flames well in the black this evening? Dustin Boyd (+4) and Craig Conroy (+4). Boyd also led the team in terms of chance (5), all of which came at ES. Given some of his other notable efforts, that seems like a trend to me, so it'll be interesting to see what Boyd's totals and differentials are through the first 10 games are.

Here's how Dennis scored the game from an Oilers perspective. He was little kinder to the Flames than I was, apparently, finishing with a 19-16 figure favor of Edmonton.

Tuesday, October 20, 2009

Flames Scoring Chances, game 9 versus Columbus

Scoring Chances for NHL Game Number 20111

TeamPeriodTimeNoteCGYOpponent
CGY117:31 4615172234110162036615v5
CGY117:1822 goal4615172234110172036615v5
CGY116:0320 goal3122024283413185093975v5
CGY115:14PP chance3412202122118505197 5v4
CBJ113:52SH goal35151722341263661 5v3
CGY110:39 3122024283413185093975v5
CGY18:364 goal412242834 13166197 4v4
CBJ14:29PP chance311233444 110141650934v5
CBJ13:05 461216213413152526975v5
CBJ10:55PP chance620243444 114165051934v5
CBJ10:30PP chance611233444 110141650934v5
CBJ219:08PP goal462434 16161820613v5
CBJ218:20PP goal34202334 110141650934v5
CBJ216:35 361517223413162061975v5
CGY213:54 51517222834118365051 5v4
CBJ29:48 31121232834110152526365v5
CGY27:20 5162333344413101426405v5
CGY26:163 goal351720213416151850515v5
CBJ21:25 31216283334110141736405v5
CBJ20:55PP chance4242834 16161820613v5
CBJ20:13PP chance4242834 16161820613v5
CBJ319:21PP chance4242834 16161820613v5
CGY314:35 46152233341361416615v5
CBJ39:26 5112123344416162051935v5
CGY37:1412 goal461112213416162051615v5
CBJ36:44 51623333444110141725365v5
CBJ36:21 5112123344416101417255v5
CBJ35:45 4615172234116203651615v5
CBJ34:49 461220243413185093975v5
CGY34:28 3122024283413185093975v5
CGY34:0511 goal31121232834110141725365v5


#PlayerEVPPSH
3D. PHANEUF15:53534:10101:1002
4J. BOUWMEESTER14:03533:09103:1701
5M. GIORDANO13:32232:05100:0000
6C. SARICH14:08441:07003:4302
10B. MCGRATTAN2:37000:00000:0000
11F. SJOSTROM12:28230:00002:0802
12J. IGINLA13:33533:47100:0000
15N. DAWES10:34322:08100:0000
16D. BOYD8:58132:15001:5000
17R. BOURQUE10:46322:11102:3900
20C. GLENCROSS10:14412:37102:3202
21O. JOKINEN14:29342:13100:0000
22D. LANGKOW11:08321:43202:3900
23E. NYSTROM13:42240:00001:0103
24C. CONROY9:30410:00001:5501
28R. REGEHR14:11520:38103:5000
33B. PRUST8:33221:07000:0000
34M. KIPRUSOFF42:561195:39107:2504
44A. JOHNSON14:21130:41002:5603


PeriodTotalsEVPP5v3 PPSH5v3 SH
1655110010300
2372310000103
3464500000001
4000000000000
Totals131811920010404

Monday, October 19, 2009

Now I know Why Jay Feaster isn't a GM anymore

I've picked on Feaster before, but I think his latest item at THN is even more reprehensible than his Heatley offering.

This time, he's congratulating himself on not trading for Tomas Vokoun, whom he argues has yet to carry his team to the post-season and last year, when new coach Pete DeBoer really needed him to elevate his play, he faltered, stumbling badly enough that DeBoer handed the starting reins to backup Craig Anderson down the stretch.

Holy shit, the list of things wrong with this claim is staggering.

Let's get the obvious stuff out of the way: Vokoun has been one of the best goalies in the league the last few years, despite playing on some pretty crappy teams. His SV% the since 2005-06 has been .919, .920, .919 and lastly .926...you know, the year he "faltered badly down the stretch". That save rate was second in the entire league, BTW, behind Vezina winner Tim Thomas.

Anyways, Feaster ignores the fact that Florida was the worst team in the league in terms of preventing shots last year and were 17th in the league in terms of goals for. The only reason they were within spitting distance of the post-season was - that's right - out of this world goaltending (from both Vokoun and Anderson). To place their failure to make the play-offs at Vokoun's feet isn't just wrong, it borders on the obscene. His "stumbling down the stretch" was doubtless little more than a near unsustainable SV% coming back down to earth - which is especially disastrous when a team gives up almost 35 shots a game. "Alright, Tomas" said coach Peter one day after practice. "I know you're in the top 5 in terms of SV% in the league and we allow teams to routinely pepper you with shots on a nightly basis...but I really need you to elevate your play down the stretch..." Pfffft. As I wrote back in February in response to the news that the Panthers would be keeping Bouwmeester:

The lone factor holding the Panthers in the race is that unsustainable .933 ES SV%. Should that uncanny number continue for the rest of the season and squeeze the cats into the play-offs, I have no doubt they'd be swept aside in short order by whoever they'd end up facing in the first round.

Of course, Feaster also ignores the fact that Vokoun has indeed appeared in the post season...and although he's never won a series, his career SV% of .922 in the play-offs suggests he's at least done his part when he's made it there.

Damn your lack of clutch Vokoun!

Feaster continues:

Not surprisingly, Vokoun has faltered and the Panthers find themselves desperately needing help from their backup goalie yet again. The only way for Florida to climb back into the hunt is for Clemmensen to do for his current squad what he did last year in Newark, and time is of the essence.

Seriously. Jay is pointing to Vokoun's .902 SV% through a grand total of five games to start the year as proof positive that he can't "handle the pressure" and needs to his back-up to "save him". This is below-grade messageboard fodder...written by a former NHL exec.

Imagine how history might have changed had we agreed to the deal with Nashville. The Panthers gave up a second round pick in 2007, plus a first- and second-rounder in 2008 for Vokoun. Had we done that deal, that first round pick in 2008 could have been our overall first pick and Steven Stamkos might now be skating in Nashville!

Or maybe with one of the best goalies in the league the Lightning wouldn't have finished last in the NHL, meaning, you know, the pick wouldn't have been first overall.

Sunday, October 18, 2009

Reactions: Early season curiosities

Every year, the first 10 games or so are filled with results that seem intuitively screwy (Colorado, anyone?). Sometimes, the new stuff is a sign of real change, and sometimes it's just an artifact of chance and small sample size. Here's some of the things I think are telling and others that will fade with time.

Don't Buy it -

The Colorado Avalanche

The Avs are looking real good right now, but it isn't going to last. They have a terrible shot differential, a 935 SV% and a team SH% of about 14. Both percentages are unsustainable (although I think Anderson is the real deal) and once one or both fall back down to earth, the Avs will too. They're roster is really, really young to boot and will probably hit a wall half way through the season. Best in NW right now, perhaps, but my bet is they still finish last.

Atlanta Thrashers

Another lesser light overachieving, the Thrashers shot differential is even worse than the Avs. Their success has a lot to do with a league best 37.5% PP success rate which will inevitably regress.

Toronto Maple Leafs

As fun as it is to laugh at Toronto and Brian Burke, there's little chance the Leafs are actually this bad. They've suffered through the worst goaltending in the league and currently have a 6% shooting rate. It's a perfect storm of terrible afflicting TOR right now and it's bound to end eventually. If Gustavsson returns and can at least be average, the SH% should correct itself to some degree and the Leafs will start winning some games.

Calgary Flames

Calgary's off to a "good" start, but the truth is they've allowed the most shots against in the league, have a shot differential well in the red and their money forwards have been abysmal in just about every aspect of the game. Notable performances by depth players, the 4th liners and a sky-high PP percentage (34.8) has allowed them to outscore their issues, but that won't last forever. Unless Sutter get's the team in the black in terms of outshooting, things are going to get ugly here in town very soon.

Edmonton Oilers

Same deal as above, except it's ES SH% that is driving the Oilers bus. Their shot differential is similarly bad, but they've currently scored the most 5on5 goals in the league (22), despite only generating some 23 shots a game. Hemsky's hurt now too. Not going to continue.

Buy it -

Boston Bruins

Most writers in this corner of the web could have called the Bruins decline. not only did they lose a number of decent players this summer (Ward, Kessel, Yelle), much of their success last year was derived from out of this world percentages. The regression was inevitable, which is why I picked them to be a middling club in the EC this season.

Detroit Red Wings

Losing Hudler, Hossa and Samuelsson isn't easily overcome. On top of that, sticking with Osgood in net and backing him with a rookie is probably a mistake. Adding Bertuzzi and losing Franzen for 4 months can't help but further hurt the Red Wings at ES. Zetterberg, Datsuk and Lidstrom are great so they won't tumble too far, but their relative early season struggles look like the real deal - the NHL's best outshooting team the last few years has a SD of just +1.4/game thus far.

Phoenix Coyotes

I know. I can't believe it either. I've seen the Coyotes play a couple of times this year and they look...good. It's a foreign feeling. They are currently 5th in the league in terms of SA/G (26.7) and they have a positive shot differential. Tippett is the real deal and the club actually has some strength down the middle in Hanzal, Lombardi, Lang and Mueller. Doan is, of course, excellent while Michalek and Sauer are underrated, good value players. Bryzgalov and Labarbera are a good bet to prove better than average goaltending as well. I doubt they'll continue to lead their division much longer, but be prepared for them not to suck for the remainder of the year.

Friday, October 16, 2009

Flames Scoring Chances, Game 8 Versus Canucks

Scoring Chances for NHL Game Number 20091

TeamPeriodTimeNoteCGYOpponent
CGY116:13PP opp34122021341381021 5v4
CGY116:00PP opp34122021341381021 5v4
CGY114:37 41116232834114293340555v5
CGY113:31 351220223413101723265v5
CGY112:4120 goal420242834 13141826334v5
CGY19:1015 goal5615172234110212355 5v4
VAN18:45 46122024341582633405v5
CGY17:39 71011162834110182329425v5
VAN16:12 3412202134123263355 5v4
CGY16:07 341220213415263355 5v4
VAN13:49 461220243418142333405v5
VAN11:09PP opp420242834 114182326334v5
VAN10:35PP opp411212834 114182326334v5
VAN214:23 4615162234121232629335v5
CGY213:223 goal31720222834114172123295v5
CGY210:4416 goal31016283334115232429375v5
VAN29:10 3112123283413101842555v5
CGY28:2610 goal5710163334115232429375v5
VAN25:43 572021233413101842555v5
CGY22:03 57122024341581018425v5
VAN21:14 4611212334114232933405v5
VAN313:05VCR goal5710163334814233033375v5
CGY311:47 31517222834317183040555v5
CGY310:55 5710163334810232430375v5
VAN37:01 461121233458142630335v5
VAN32:58PP goal6242834 318232630333v5
VAN32:17PP goal317242834 514172930404v5


#PlayerEVPPSH
3D. PHANEUF15:19416:01311:2601
4J. BOUWMEESTER15:29155:45314:0712
5M. GIORDANO12:24424:54100:0000
6C. SARICH14:10052:51102:0200
7A. PARDY13:30420:03000:3000
10B. MCGRATTAN5:55410:00000:0000
11F. SJOSTROM11:20230:04001:4701
12J. IGINLA14:20225:59310:0600
15N. DAWES9:02115:45100:0000
16D. BOYD7:17520:16000:2000
17R. BOURQUE9:51204:27102:1901
20C. GLENCROSS14:42334:53310:5811
21O. JOKINEN13:34045:28310:4701
22D. LANGKOW11:25314:58102:1200
23E. NYSTROM11:21140:16001:4900
24C. CONROY11:35120:00001:3212
28R. REGEHR14:39511:50003:3913
33B. PRUST6:38310:00000:0000
34M. KIPRUSOFF42:429810:42415:4613


PeriodTotalsEVPP5v3 PPSH5v3 SH
1853241001200
2444400000000
3242200000101
4000000000000
Totals14139841001301

Tuesday, October 13, 2009

Flames Scoring Chances, Game 7 versus Columbus

Scoring Chances for NHL Game Number 20074

TeamPeriodTimeNoteCGYOpponent
CGY118:23 671523243416185051935v5
CGY115:47 451720213418151620975v5
CBJ115:15 3111222283418185093975v5
CBJ113:37 312172834 13105093 4v4
CGY112:44 341221223418265097 5v4
CBJ18:53 3172021283413101850935v5
CBJ18:49 3172021283413101850935v5
CGY17:45 451112223418252661975v5
CGY17:10 3152324283416162051615v5
CGY13:4120 Goal671720213413101520265v5
CBJ10:44 3152324283416162051615v5
CGY217:16 671523243413101850935v5
CBJ215:05 451112223413101625615v5
CBJ211:04 451720213413101620615v5
CBJ211:02 4517202134110162051615v5
CBJ29:47 3101628333416185051935v5
CBJ29:27 3101628333416185051935v5
CBJ25:20PP opp416202834 16182051614v5
CBJ24:28PP goal4242834 16161820613v5
CBJ23:36PP opp416172834 110141650934v5
CBJ22:52PP opp37112334 1681820614v5
CBJ22:39PP opp37112334 1681820614v5
CBJ22:2420 goal3671123341681820615v5
CGY315:23 6716233334618405051 5v4
CBJ314:46 31517222834310185093 5v4
CBJ314:06 4512202134815252697 5v4
CGY311:38 4515172234615252651 5v4
CGY38:14 31220212834815252697 5v4
CGY33:46 6711162334310152526 5v4
CGY31:44 4516232434615252651 5v4


#PlayerEVPPSH
3D. PHANEUF13:53186:14210:4402
4J. BOUWMEESTER13:26237:26312:2402
5M. GIORDANO12:08235:46210:0000
6C. SARICH11:34314:07200:4900
7A. PARDY8:58315:58201:3302
10B. MCGRATTAN5:19020:00000:0000
11F. SJOSTROM10:41133:56100:5802
12J. IGINLA11:29137:20210:0000
15N. DAWES7:09315:54110:0000
16D. BOYD6:24022:38301:0902
17R. BOURQUE11:24255:19111:3001
20C. GLENCROSS10:07244:42111:0601
21O. JOKINEN11:07245:42210:0500
22D. LANGKOW11:20126:15211:1200
23E. NYSTROM9:03324:46301:2602
24C. CONROY9:06312:37100:3800
28R. REGEHR15:01174:41112:2902
33B. PRUST3:25022:00100:0000
34M. KIPRUSOFF37:2661117:05623:5704


PeriodTotalsEVPP5v3 PPSH5v3 SH
1655510000000
21111600000401
3520052000000
4000000000000
Totals121861162000401