Here the Flames stand, balanced precariously on the edge of a precipice. On the one hand, they lead the highly competitive NW division with only 11 games remaining in the season. On the other hand, they teter periously close to a play-off-less oblivion.
Yup, it's a very fine line for the Flames right now. After their less-than-fruitful 7 game excursion, Calgary finds themselves beset on all sides by ugly circumstances...
Consider that only 5 points seperates the Flames from the 10th place Los Angeles Kings. Edmonton and Vancouver sit only 2 points away while Colorado is parallel with Calgary in the standings (with one less game remaining to play). Thus, not only is the NW division on the line, but the Flames very play-off lives as well. If their current clump continues, Calgary risks falling from 3rd in the conference to 8th (and lower) in remarkably sudden fashion. Without a strong finish, it's highly possible that Calgary could fall behind their divisional rivals as well as the surging Ducks and Sharks...which would leave them on the outside looking in.
Check out the standings here.
So the question is, will Calgary win the heart of the comely play-off princess? Or will they have to settle for her ugly friend - the dreaded "look ahead to next season"(*shudder*)?
Let's take a look at the factors facing Calgary in this all-important stretch drive.
The Bad:
The Flames haven't been very good recently. They are 4-5-1 in their last 10 games, a span during which they have allowed a total of 31 goals against (3.1 goals per game). While that hideous eye-sore of a loss to Nashville (9-4) is skewing the results a tad, it's still a highly dubious stat for a team that
a.) doesn't score a lot of goals and therefore
b.) relies on team defense and good goaltending to win games.
Not that goaltending has been a problem (mostly). Rather, Calgary has been suffering a lot of "brain cramps" near their own net recently. It doesn't help that Warrener is injured, Phaneuf is slumping and Ference is...well, Ference.
One can't simply point the finger at the defensemen, though. In fact, the entire team seemed to take a vacation from their own end of the rink for awhile - Im speaking, of course, of the 3 game stretch during the aforementioned road trip in which the Flames surrendered an average of 39 shots against. One game is forgivable. But 3? In a row? With this team of pluggers, grinders and defensmen, that simply shouldn't happen. And if they expect to be playing in May, it can't happen again.
The flip side, naturally, is Calgary's flacid offense (187 GF, 2.6 GPG) . Thanks to a combination of defense-first systems, a general lack of pure scorers in the line-up and ongoing player slumps (Im looking at you Iginla and Amonte. And Donovan. And Yelle. And Simon. And Lombardi. And...), the Flames are one of the LEAST capable teams in the league at scoring goals. The result is an overdependence on goaltending and a strong blueline that could eventually prove fatal should key pieces like Kipper or Regehr go down with injury. It will also prove crippling to Calgary's play-off hopes should their defensive play fail to tighten up significantly over the home stretch (relative to how it's been over the last 10 games).
External challenges for Calgary include the disgustingly close Western Conference. While both Vancouver and Edmonton have been less than stellar along with Calgary this month, both San Jose (8-1-1 last 10) and Anaheim (9-1-0) are two of the hottest teams in the league and have further crowded and complicated the play-off picture. In addition, Colorado continues to hang around despite all their significant injuries and seem to be the team closest to knocking the Flames from their NW Division perch. With 86 points and 11 games left, it means that Calgary will mostly likely need another 10 points of a possible 22 to make the post-season and probably around 13 of 22 to clinch the division. Which is, I'd say, all very possible should one or more of the above issues be properly addressed...
The Good:
It's not all doom and gloom for Calgary, however. Seven of the Flames remaining 11 games are in the 'Dome, which is a major plus. Calgary is 24-7-3 at home this year, a winning percentage of approximately 70%. Should they continue this level of success on familiar ice for the remainder of the season, the Flames will garner 5 wins out of those 7 home dates, which will give them 10 points and a probable play-off berth. Also, they would only need to accrue an additional 3 or 4 points from the remaining 4 road games to clinch the division. Huzzah!
There are some external factors assisting the Flames on their quest(s) - Colorado has recently suffered a number of season-ending injuries to the likes of Svatos and Tanguay, which will highly test their forward depth. In addition, thanks to Lacroix's baffling deadline deal for Jose Theodore, The Av's will be relying on 3rd string goaltender Petr Budaj to carry them to the end of the season. Should Budaj continue to play inconsistently, or slip even further, the Avalanche may be the team left breaking out the golf clubs early.
In addition, Calgary's 2 most hated rivals have stumbled in a manner similar to the Flames recently. Both have only 4 wins in their last 10 games and are still struggling mightily with their own internal issues. If Calgary can put together a strong final push, they should be able to keep themselves ahead of at least one, if not both, of the Canucks and Oilers.
The Ugly
As the regular season comes to a close, one can't help but feel disappointed in Jarome Iginla. Which is almost unfair to say, considering he did reach the 30 goal platform for the 5th straight year AND is the captain of a team that has lead it's division for most of the year.
That said, he's also the 7 million dollar face of a team that can't seem to score. He's currently 66th in league scoring in terms of points and 22nd in the league in terms of goals. the 22 year old Av's rookie, Marek Svatos, has one more tally than Iginla and has played 10 less games! Boo!
A lot of pundits going into the year expected Jarome to be among the league leaders in goals and points, but that hasn't happened (for whatever reason). Could it be the "year after signing a big contract" thing that seems to affect most athletes? Was it the year off during the lock-out? is it a lack of chemistry with his linemates? The defense-first Flames scheme? All of the above? Be it all or none, the Flames are likely going to need Jarome to step it up if they hope to have any success in the post-season. And, perhaps, will need him to do so earlier than that if they expect to get there at all.
Also, the injury bug has reared it's ugly head and taken a big, hateful bite out of the Flames of late. Warrener and Nilson were both felled by knee injuries while Leclerc suffered a broken wrist. McCarty sat out the final game of the road trip thanks to a wonky back. While the acquisition of Jamie Lundmark at the deadline has been paying dividends in the short term (5 points in 5 GP), it remains to be seen if he can step it up over the stretch with the absence of some of these notable veterans. I guess we can only wait and see...
The final ugly issue facing Calgary is their lack of a confident back-up goaltender. Sutter ran Sauve out of town on a rail, only to watch his replacement crap the bed against Nashville. Should Kipper tire or get injured before season's end, it's probable that Calgary will drop out of contention like lead through water.
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So that's my general overview. There's a metric ton more to say, but Im tired and my fingers hurt. All we can do now is sit back and develop ulcers over the next few weeks. It all begins tomorrow when the Kings come into town.
GO FLAMES GO!!
