Interesting post here by the Universal Cynic, a writer I stumbled upon through my other sphere of blog-reading. An Ottawa citizen and freelance writer, Erin details her absurd (losing) battle to get accredited for the upcoming Stanley Cup finals.
Just another way head office is doing things wrong these days.
Monday, May 28, 2007
Thursday, May 24, 2007
Farm Uprooted
The Flames released a statement to the press today confirming the rumor they will be moving their AHL affiliate to the Quad Cities area in Moline IL.
The short-lived Omaha Knights were last in attendance in the AHL during their inaugural season and 25th in the league last year (despite having a relatively successful team). There have been rumors of losses in the area of $2 million associated with the Omaha Franchise.
Here is the Knights (Flames?) new arena. It looks pretty swanky.
Here is a webpage for the soon-to-be team.
Thanks for the (brief encounter) memories Omaha!
The short-lived Omaha Knights were last in attendance in the AHL during their inaugural season and 25th in the league last year (despite having a relatively successful team). There have been rumors of losses in the area of $2 million associated with the Omaha Franchise.
Here is the Knights (Flames?) new arena. It looks pretty swanky.
Here is a webpage for the soon-to-be team.
Thanks for the (brief encounter) memories Omaha!
Tuesday, May 22, 2007
Sutter Signs Prospects
The Flames announced the signing of 5 youngsters to entry level deals today, including former first-rounder Matt Pelech, WHL stand-out Matt Keetley, his teammate Gord Baldwin, Sutter the lesser (Brett) and undrafted blueliner Brad Cole.
The Keetley signing likely signals the end of the Krahn era in Calgary. The Flames are now ankle-deep in goalie prospects: McElhinney, Lalande, Keetley and Irving, to name a few. Krahn's constant struggles with injuries and consistency, not to mention his pending UFA status, means he'll cease to be Flames property this summer.
Pelech and Baldwin were top 2 blueliners for their respective junior clubs this past year. Likely the latter will be looking to crack the top 4 in the AHL come September. Sutter took a big leap, stats-wise, as an overaged winger in the dub last season. That said, his numbers still aren't mind-boggling. He'll be trying out for 3rd/4th line duty on the Knights next year. Brad Cole, like Mark Giordano, was passed over in the draft and was signed by Sutter as a free agent. He managed a pretty good season last year as the Captain of the Saskatoon Blades. Looks like a low-risk, moderate-reward kind of move.
The Keetley signing likely signals the end of the Krahn era in Calgary. The Flames are now ankle-deep in goalie prospects: McElhinney, Lalande, Keetley and Irving, to name a few. Krahn's constant struggles with injuries and consistency, not to mention his pending UFA status, means he'll cease to be Flames property this summer.
Pelech and Baldwin were top 2 blueliners for their respective junior clubs this past year. Likely the latter will be looking to crack the top 4 in the AHL come September. Sutter took a big leap, stats-wise, as an overaged winger in the dub last season. That said, his numbers still aren't mind-boggling. He'll be trying out for 3rd/4th line duty on the Knights next year. Brad Cole, like Mark Giordano, was passed over in the draft and was signed by Sutter as a free agent. He managed a pretty good season last year as the Captain of the Saskatoon Blades. Looks like a low-risk, moderate-reward kind of move.
Tuesday, May 15, 2007
Minor Flames News
First off, the Calgary Flames have a couple of prospects playing in this years memorial cup:
Overager JD Watt, who was recently signed by Sutter, had his best single season as a Vancouver Giant this year, and was a physical presence for the team as they marched through the WHL play-offs before falling to Medicine Hat in game 7 of the final series. Watt will likely be trying out for a spot on the Knights bottom six come next season.
Matt Keetley, another notable goaltending prospect (who remains unsigned by the Flames), led his club to the WHL championships and was named MVP of the tournament. He managed 105 wins in 152 regular season starts during his WHL career. It'll be interesting to see if Sutter allows Keetley to walk.
For the second straight year, Daniel Ryder is advancing to the memorial cup, except this time it's with the Plymouth Whalers. Ryder is coming off a career offensive season, where he scored 40 goals and 52 assists in just 57 games. He was suspended during for a 10 game stretch and was traded, which resulted in a brief disruption of his offensive out-put, meaning his totals could likely have been even more impressive had circumstances turned out differently. In the post-season, Ryder added 17 points in 20 games, a year after scoring 31 points in 19 play-off games with a very strong Peterborough Petes team. In 53 play-off contests Ryder has managed an impressive 60 points over the course of his career.
Ryder is also a signed prospect and will likely be skating on the Knights second line next season, just behind Dustin Boyd. It's no secret that I'm fairly excited about Ryder as a prospect and will be looking forward to observing the results from his first season as a pro.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Speaking of the Omaha Knights, the Flames baby club enjoyed a great deal more success than the parent team this past year. The Knights won the Western Division and the Western Conference, despite being an expansion club with the second youngest roster in the league. For a full player by player overview, visit this thread over at Calgarypuck by poster "Tilley" who is apparently a close observer of the farm team.
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Matthew Lombardi and Dion Phaneuf were significant contributors on the World Champion Canadian team these past few weeks. Phaneuf missed the first two games due to injury concerns, but was still able to become an ice-time leader, despite the fact that Team Canada boasted an 8 defenceman rotation that including guys like Brewer, Weber, Shultz, Commodore, Hamhuis and Barrett Jackman. He also finished the tourny with 8 assists, 2 off the record.
Matthew Lombardi finished with 6 goals and 6 assists and was named one the Team's 3 best players. He skated on the top line with Shane Doan and Rick Nash and was also frequently employed as a penalty killer. As Kyle notes, Lombo played a complete 2-way game in Russia that included both offensive production and defensive awareness.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ignoring the Flames post-season futility, there's a lot of encouraging signs for Calgary fans heading into the summer. Prospects are excelling, the farm team is stronger than anticipated and young, future stars are maturing. Now if only Warrener would retire...
Overager JD Watt, who was recently signed by Sutter, had his best single season as a Vancouver Giant this year, and was a physical presence for the team as they marched through the WHL play-offs before falling to Medicine Hat in game 7 of the final series. Watt will likely be trying out for a spot on the Knights bottom six come next season.
Matt Keetley, another notable goaltending prospect (who remains unsigned by the Flames), led his club to the WHL championships and was named MVP of the tournament. He managed 105 wins in 152 regular season starts during his WHL career. It'll be interesting to see if Sutter allows Keetley to walk.
For the second straight year, Daniel Ryder is advancing to the memorial cup, except this time it's with the Plymouth Whalers. Ryder is coming off a career offensive season, where he scored 40 goals and 52 assists in just 57 games. He was suspended during for a 10 game stretch and was traded, which resulted in a brief disruption of his offensive out-put, meaning his totals could likely have been even more impressive had circumstances turned out differently. In the post-season, Ryder added 17 points in 20 games, a year after scoring 31 points in 19 play-off games with a very strong Peterborough Petes team. In 53 play-off contests Ryder has managed an impressive 60 points over the course of his career.
Ryder is also a signed prospect and will likely be skating on the Knights second line next season, just behind Dustin Boyd. It's no secret that I'm fairly excited about Ryder as a prospect and will be looking forward to observing the results from his first season as a pro.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Speaking of the Omaha Knights, the Flames baby club enjoyed a great deal more success than the parent team this past year. The Knights won the Western Division and the Western Conference, despite being an expansion club with the second youngest roster in the league. For a full player by player overview, visit this thread over at Calgarypuck by poster "Tilley" who is apparently a close observer of the farm team.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Matthew Lombardi and Dion Phaneuf were significant contributors on the World Champion Canadian team these past few weeks. Phaneuf missed the first two games due to injury concerns, but was still able to become an ice-time leader, despite the fact that Team Canada boasted an 8 defenceman rotation that including guys like Brewer, Weber, Shultz, Commodore, Hamhuis and Barrett Jackman. He also finished the tourny with 8 assists, 2 off the record.
Matthew Lombardi finished with 6 goals and 6 assists and was named one the Team's 3 best players. He skated on the top line with Shane Doan and Rick Nash and was also frequently employed as a penalty killer. As Kyle notes, Lombo played a complete 2-way game in Russia that included both offensive production and defensive awareness.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ignoring the Flames post-season futility, there's a lot of encouraging signs for Calgary fans heading into the summer. Prospects are excelling, the farm team is stronger than anticipated and young, future stars are maturing. Now if only Warrener would retire...
Thursday, May 10, 2007
Everybody Likes Chris.
Check out this interesting little article on Chris Drury by Off Wing Opinion blogger Eric McErlain over at NBC sports. After noting both Colorado and Calgary dealt Drury earlier in his career, Eric unearths this humorous little quote by Chris himself:
"I just don't know what to think. I play in Colorado, they tell me they like me, and I get traded. I play in Calgary, and at the end of the season the GM tells me he likes me, and I get traded. I just hope my fiancée doesn't tell me she likes me."
Heh.
In Sutter's defense, Drury wasn't the player he is now when he was traded by the Flames a few years back. In fact, it's possible he wouldn't have developed into the center he is today had he remained in Calgary. When he was a Flame, Chris had a lot offensive flair, but lacked the defensive acumen and polish that allows Lindy Ruff to play Drury against the opposition's top players.
It'll certainly be interesting to see what happens with Drury come July. I'm thinking that Buffalo will make a hard charge to re-sign him and will let Briere walk. Of course, should Drury decide to test the waters of free agency, Briere is a pretty damn good consolation prize.
Now, if both players decide the grass is greener elsewhere, maybe we can deal Langkow to Buffalo in exchange for ex-Flame Toni Lydman...
"I just don't know what to think. I play in Colorado, they tell me they like me, and I get traded. I play in Calgary, and at the end of the season the GM tells me he likes me, and I get traded. I just hope my fiancée doesn't tell me she likes me."
Heh.
In Sutter's defense, Drury wasn't the player he is now when he was traded by the Flames a few years back. In fact, it's possible he wouldn't have developed into the center he is today had he remained in Calgary. When he was a Flame, Chris had a lot offensive flair, but lacked the defensive acumen and polish that allows Lindy Ruff to play Drury against the opposition's top players.
It'll certainly be interesting to see what happens with Drury come July. I'm thinking that Buffalo will make a hard charge to re-sign him and will let Briere walk. Of course, should Drury decide to test the waters of free agency, Briere is a pretty damn good consolation prize.
Now, if both players decide the grass is greener elsewhere, maybe we can deal Langkow to Buffalo in exchange for ex-Flame Toni Lydman...
More Lombardi Goodness
Matthew Lombardi scored twice more this morning against the Swiss, giving him 5 goals in the last 2 games. He currently paces all Canadian goal scorers with 6 in the tournament.
He was also seen skating with an "A" on his sweater.
Definitely nice to see Lombardi excelling in this tournament. The big ice surface and somewhat docile level of physicality are certainly beneficial to his game, as is the somewhat average quality of competition. However, it's notable that Lombardi is doing well relative to his teammates, many of whom are considered top line players at the NHL level (Staal, Nash, Doan, Cammalleri). Thus far, Lombo looks like a peer in this company, rather than a subordinate. And that is certainly encouraging for Flames fans.
Dion Phaneuf is also making his presence felt at the World Championships. He added another 2 assists to his point total today, and was among the team leaders in ice-time.
After their 5-1 victory this morning, Team Canada will meet a strong Swedish club in the semi-finals on Saturday.
GO LOMBO...err...CANADA!
He was also seen skating with an "A" on his sweater.
Definitely nice to see Lombardi excelling in this tournament. The big ice surface and somewhat docile level of physicality are certainly beneficial to his game, as is the somewhat average quality of competition. However, it's notable that Lombardi is doing well relative to his teammates, many of whom are considered top line players at the NHL level (Staal, Nash, Doan, Cammalleri). Thus far, Lombo looks like a peer in this company, rather than a subordinate. And that is certainly encouraging for Flames fans.
Dion Phaneuf is also making his presence felt at the World Championships. He added another 2 assists to his point total today, and was among the team leaders in ice-time.
After their 5-1 victory this morning, Team Canada will meet a strong Swedish club in the semi-finals on Saturday.
GO LOMBO...err...CANADA!
Tuesday, May 08, 2007
This 'n That
So Detroit and San Jose conspired once again to deny my bid for a perfect set of predictions. I went 6/8 in the first round, missing on the Red Wing/Flames and Sharks/Preds picks. In the second round, I successfully picked the Sabres, Ducks and Ottawa victories, but failed to forecast the SJ/Joe Thornton implosion.
Kudos to Detroit. They seem to be getting better as the post season rolls along, despite some significant injuries. I keep expecting the likes of Chelios and Hasek to collapse into sweaty, shuddering heaps, but it continually fails to happen.
Anyways, although I've picked against the Red Wings twice - and been wrong twice - I'm going to do it again in round 3. The Ducks have superior defensive depth now that Detroit has lost Schneider, and an even more capable shut-down trio in Moen, Pahlsson and Niedermayer, which will likely go head-to-head with the Zetterberg line. I would call goaltending a wash, although I keep expecting Hasek's groin to blow-up. Should the Dominator fall, so too shall Detroit.
Ducks in 7.
The Ottawa/Buffalo series promises to be one of the best we've seen in a long time. Both are well-rounded offensive dynamos that made short work of their first 2 opponents - although I'd venture to say that the Sens have looked like the more capable squad thus far. In fact, the Senators have probably been the best club in the league for the last 3 months or so. If Buffalo is unable to bring their "A" game in this 3rd round, I pick Ottawa to win the series and, likely, the cup.
That said, I've liked Buffalo for most of the season and they've become my sentimental favorite. If there's a team capable of knocking down the high-flying Sens, it's them.
Sabres in 7.
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So Matthew Lombardi has been operating on what I would consider the #1 line (Doan-Lombo-Nash) for Canada in the World Championships and Lo and Behold! He's got 8 points in 6 games, including yesterday's hat trick.
I was pimping Lombardi for top 6 duty last summer and I'll be doing it again during this off-season. He struggled at the end of the year, however, keep in mind he frequently played with less quality linemates during that period (Amonte, Primeau, etc.). That is, when he wasn't getting benched or scratched for minor errors.
If Lombardi doesn't usurp Conroy's position among the top 6 come September I may have to just purchase a Buffa-Slug jersey and convert completely.
Kudos to Detroit. They seem to be getting better as the post season rolls along, despite some significant injuries. I keep expecting the likes of Chelios and Hasek to collapse into sweaty, shuddering heaps, but it continually fails to happen.
Anyways, although I've picked against the Red Wings twice - and been wrong twice - I'm going to do it again in round 3. The Ducks have superior defensive depth now that Detroit has lost Schneider, and an even more capable shut-down trio in Moen, Pahlsson and Niedermayer, which will likely go head-to-head with the Zetterberg line. I would call goaltending a wash, although I keep expecting Hasek's groin to blow-up. Should the Dominator fall, so too shall Detroit.
Ducks in 7.
The Ottawa/Buffalo series promises to be one of the best we've seen in a long time. Both are well-rounded offensive dynamos that made short work of their first 2 opponents - although I'd venture to say that the Sens have looked like the more capable squad thus far. In fact, the Senators have probably been the best club in the league for the last 3 months or so. If Buffalo is unable to bring their "A" game in this 3rd round, I pick Ottawa to win the series and, likely, the cup.
That said, I've liked Buffalo for most of the season and they've become my sentimental favorite. If there's a team capable of knocking down the high-flying Sens, it's them.
Sabres in 7.
--------------------------------------------------------
So Matthew Lombardi has been operating on what I would consider the #1 line (Doan-Lombo-Nash) for Canada in the World Championships and Lo and Behold! He's got 8 points in 6 games, including yesterday's hat trick.
I was pimping Lombardi for top 6 duty last summer and I'll be doing it again during this off-season. He struggled at the end of the year, however, keep in mind he frequently played with less quality linemates during that period (Amonte, Primeau, etc.). That is, when he wasn't getting benched or scratched for minor errors.
If Lombardi doesn't usurp Conroy's position among the top 6 come September I may have to just purchase a Buffa-Slug jersey and convert completely.
Friday, May 04, 2007
Save Doan - Updated
I haven't commented on the Shane Doan issue yet; partially because it's completely absurd and partially because all the offending parties in question really want is some attention, which I am loathe to grant them.
That said, here's a quick and efficient way for the citizenry of Canada to tell their politicians that this kind of opportunistic posturing isn't appreciated.
Update - Ironically, Doan scored a hat trick this morning against Belarus. Suck on that Duceppe!
That said, here's a quick and efficient way for the citizenry of Canada to tell their politicians that this kind of opportunistic posturing isn't appreciated.
Update - Ironically, Doan scored a hat trick this morning against Belarus. Suck on that Duceppe!
Wednesday, May 02, 2007
Filling the Gaps
Now that we've established what's out there in terms of UFA's, it's time to look at the Flames depth-chart and cap situation.
Assuming the likes of Amonte, Friesen, McCarty, Nilson, Ritchie, Primeau, McLennan and Stuart won't be returning, the resultant depth chart looks something like this:
Tanguay (5.25) - Langkow (2.442) - Iginla (7.0)
Huselius (1.4) - Conroy (2.394) - Moss (0.450)
UNKNOWN - Lombardi (1.8?) - UNKNOWN
UNKNOWN - Yelle (1.4) - UNKNOWN
Regehr (1.875) - Hamrlik (4.0)
Phaneuf (0.785) - Warrener (2.350)
Zyuzin (1.4) - Hale (0.550)
Giordano (0.450)
Kipprusoff (3.333)
McElhinney (0.600)
Total Cap hit: 37.479 million
Projected Cap: 48 million
Cap Space: 10.521
The Flames need two bottom-six LWers, one bottom-six RWer, one top-six RWer and a top -two defender. Assuming Sutter will keep a minimum 2 million cap cushion, the Flames therefore have 8.521 million in remaining space to spend on 5 players - an average of
about 1.70 million per player.
Fortunately, Calgary will be able to flesh out a lot of the 3rd and 4th line positions with cheap youngsters. It's debatable who among the crop of notable Omaha Knights will make the cut, although talk is Prust (LW - 0.525) and Taratukhin (C/LW - 0.750) are the front runners. The Flames may want to dip into the UFA pool with the hope of landing a more experienced, undervalued guy like Jeff Hamilton (RW - 0.750).
For discussion purposes, let's assume these are the guys that make the squad. Their combined projected salaries come to 2.025 million, leaving 6.496 million for a top 6 right wing and top 2 blueliner. Hmmm...
The cream of the UFA RWers include:
Teemu Selanne: 5.5M
Dainius Zubrus: 4.0M
Bill Guerin: 3.5M
Todd Bertuzzi: 3.0M
Scott Hartnell: 2.5M
Mike Johnson: 1.5M
Mark Recchi: 1.5M
Scott Walker: 1.5M
Clearly the big fish are out of reach for the Flames. Scratch Teemu, Zubrus, Guerin and the Thug. And Recchi is just too old.
That leaves us with Hartnell, Johnson and Walker.
Scott Hartnell is the youngest, biggest and probably most adept goal scorer of the three. He's managed 93 goals in 436 career games (0.21 GPG) and twice cracked the 20 goal mark. He was also born in Sakatchewan, which is probably a plus in Sutter's book. In 6 NHL seasons, however, he's never managed more than 50 points.
Mike Johnson is known more for his defensive prowess than his offensive abilities. Keep in mind, however, he did manage 63 points in 02/03 and 54 points in 05/06 on some pretty bad Phoenix squads, so he's not totally devoid of skill in the attacking end. That said, he's only twice been a 20 goal-scorer in his 9+ NHL seasons. His GPG pace of 0.19 isn't terribly below Hartnell's, however. He spent the 2nd most time on PK out of any Montreal forward last year, meaning he would be a welcome addition to the Flames lackluster PK.
Scott Walker is a blood and guts kind of player, although he's also the smallest of the 3 players in question. He's scored 20+ goals 3 times in his career, including last season's 21 goal performance. His GPG pace of .18 falls below both Johnson and Hartnell's, although the difference isn't huge. He's getting on in years and seems to be a tad injury prone as well, probably due to his all-or-nothing approach to the game.
The even-strength scoring rates for Hartnell, Johnson and Walker from last year were 2.31 ESP/60, 1.54 ESP/60 and 2.29 ESP/60 respectively. Keep in mind, Johnson played for a team that couldn't seem to score at ES (Canadiens - 122 ES GF, 27th in the league), meaning contextual circumstances may have repressed his rate somewhat.
Hartnell has some impressive advanced stats as well - an on ice +/- figure of 1.44, good for second in terms of forwards on the Preds. Consider that NSH only allowed 1.88 GA/60 while he as on the ice last year - the best rate by far of any forward on the team (keep in mind Walker played less than 700 minutes at ES...a relatively small number). Johnson's numbers aren't as impressive, although he was among the leaders on his team in terms of on ice +/- (0.13) and on ice GA/60 (2.08). Scott Walker was under water in terms of on ice +/- (-0.37) and his on ice GA/60 rate leaves a lot to be desired (3.25). Given that he's older, injury-prone, has some unimpressive advanced stats and the lowest career GPG rate, I would suggest eliminating Walker from contention for the Flames 2nd line RW job.
So is Hartnell worth the $1+ million more than Johnson? Given that he's pretty young and still on the upsiwng of his career, I would suggest "yes". However, if the Flames are unable to land Hartnell, Johnson may be a decent alternative who could be used in a checking/PK role in a pinch.
Let's pretend the Flames land Hartnell for about 2.5/season. Here's how the resultant forward lines might look:
Tanguay - Langkow - Iginla
Huselius - Lombardi - Hartnell
Taratukhin - Conroy - Moss
Prust - Yelle - Hamilton
(Germyn, Boyd, Nystrom, etc.)
The remaining cap space for the top-2 defender after the Hartnell signing would be about 3.996 million. Pending UFA blueliners include:
Kimmo Timonen: 5.5M
Brad Stuart: 5.0M
Sheldon Souray: 5.0M
Brian Rafalski: 5.0M
Scott Hannan: 4M
Andrei Markov: 4M
Danny Markov: 3.5M
Tom Preissing: 3.5M
Craig Rivet: 3.0M
Mathieu Schneider: 3.0M
Darryl Sydor: 2.0M
Aaron Miller: 2.0M
Andy Sutton: 2.0M
Cory Sarich: 2.0M
Could the Flames coax the likes of Hannan or Andrei Markov to Calgary for 4M? Markov led his team in ice-time in 06/07, including over 274 minutes SH. He finished the year with 49 points and a +2 (the latter being very impressive on the Canadiens). Actually, looking at the season he had last year, I suggest Markov may be a $5M or so defender. Darn. Hannan also led his team in terms of ice-time at ES and SH, while his less than impressive offensive stats (4 goals, 20 assists) may make him more affordable. Tom Preissing had a monster year in Ottawa to go with his very good year in SJ the season before. However, Preissing has excelled on the 3rd pairing thus far, and may not be the "shut-down" guy the Flames need. Preissing only averaged 15 minutes a game with the Sens and was almost NEVER put on the ice in SH situations (10:47 TOI), meaning he's probably going to be overvalued and overpaid this summer. I don't consider him a good option.
Kimo Timonen is likely the best defender available and may get up to $6 million from whoever lands him. He played the most out of any NSH player last season and excels on both the PP and PK. He managed a +20 in 06/07 and has gotten more than 40 points 5 times in his career. he also represents the perfect mobile, fleet-footed foil for Robyn Regehr. My not-so-secret fantasy for the off-season would be the trading of Warrener's bloated contract (2.35 million) for a bag of pucks, which would leave the Flames with the requisite cap space (6.346 million) to go after Timonen.
My resultant fantasy pairings would be:
Regehr - Timonen
Phaneuf - Hamrlik
Giordano - Hale
Zyuzin
Though it might be more realistic to see something like Regehr-Hannan or even Regehr-Sydor on the top pairing come September (with Warrener still hobbling along on the 3rd pairing. Ugh). For his part, Sydor is older but seems relatively capable. He doesn't score much anymore, but he's still a 20 minute/night guy and can still play against tougher competition. I believe he was paired with Zubov in Dallas last season. The threat of "diminishing returns" becomes ever more present with guys aged 35+, however.
To be realistic, let's say the Flames land Hannan and keep Rhett. The final depth chart and cap hit would looks something like:
Tanguay - Langkow - Iginla
Huselius - Lombardi - Hartnell
Taratukhin - Conroy - Moss
Prust - Yelle - Hamilton
Regehr - Hannan
Phaneuf - Hamrlik
Warrener - Giordano
(Hale, Zyuzin)
Kipper
McElhinney
Total Cap Hit: 46.004 million
Projected Cap: 48 million
Assumptions:
The Salary Cap increases to 48 million.
The actual salaries of Hartnell, Timonen, etc. are within 0.5 Million of projected salaries. This is probably wishful thinking.
Hamrlik re-signs with the Flames for $4M/year or less.
Anyways, that's how I see it shaking down at this point. A proven 20 goal scorer added to the top 6, some youthful exuberance on lines 3 and 4 and another shut-down guy to play with Regehr. All for about 46 mill.
Questions? Comments? Complaints? Criticisms?
Assuming the likes of Amonte, Friesen, McCarty, Nilson, Ritchie, Primeau, McLennan and Stuart won't be returning, the resultant depth chart looks something like this:
Tanguay (5.25) - Langkow (2.442) - Iginla (7.0)
Huselius (1.4) - Conroy (2.394) - Moss (0.450)
UNKNOWN - Lombardi (1.8?) - UNKNOWN
UNKNOWN - Yelle (1.4) - UNKNOWN
Regehr (1.875) - Hamrlik (4.0)
Phaneuf (0.785) - Warrener (2.350)
Zyuzin (1.4) - Hale (0.550)
Giordano (0.450)
Kipprusoff (3.333)
McElhinney (0.600)
Total Cap hit: 37.479 million
Projected Cap: 48 million
Cap Space: 10.521
The Flames need two bottom-six LWers, one bottom-six RWer, one top-six RWer and a top -two defender. Assuming Sutter will keep a minimum 2 million cap cushion, the Flames therefore have 8.521 million in remaining space to spend on 5 players - an average of
about 1.70 million per player.
Fortunately, Calgary will be able to flesh out a lot of the 3rd and 4th line positions with cheap youngsters. It's debatable who among the crop of notable Omaha Knights will make the cut, although talk is Prust (LW - 0.525) and Taratukhin (C/LW - 0.750) are the front runners. The Flames may want to dip into the UFA pool with the hope of landing a more experienced, undervalued guy like Jeff Hamilton (RW - 0.750).
For discussion purposes, let's assume these are the guys that make the squad. Their combined projected salaries come to 2.025 million, leaving 6.496 million for a top 6 right wing and top 2 blueliner. Hmmm...
The cream of the UFA RWers include:
Teemu Selanne: 5.5M
Dainius Zubrus: 4.0M
Bill Guerin: 3.5M
Todd Bertuzzi: 3.0M
Scott Hartnell: 2.5M
Mike Johnson: 1.5M
Mark Recchi: 1.5M
Scott Walker: 1.5M
Clearly the big fish are out of reach for the Flames. Scratch Teemu, Zubrus, Guerin and the Thug. And Recchi is just too old.
That leaves us with Hartnell, Johnson and Walker.
Scott Hartnell is the youngest, biggest and probably most adept goal scorer of the three. He's managed 93 goals in 436 career games (0.21 GPG) and twice cracked the 20 goal mark. He was also born in Sakatchewan, which is probably a plus in Sutter's book. In 6 NHL seasons, however, he's never managed more than 50 points.
Mike Johnson is known more for his defensive prowess than his offensive abilities. Keep in mind, however, he did manage 63 points in 02/03 and 54 points in 05/06 on some pretty bad Phoenix squads, so he's not totally devoid of skill in the attacking end. That said, he's only twice been a 20 goal-scorer in his 9+ NHL seasons. His GPG pace of 0.19 isn't terribly below Hartnell's, however. He spent the 2nd most time on PK out of any Montreal forward last year, meaning he would be a welcome addition to the Flames lackluster PK.
Scott Walker is a blood and guts kind of player, although he's also the smallest of the 3 players in question. He's scored 20+ goals 3 times in his career, including last season's 21 goal performance. His GPG pace of .18 falls below both Johnson and Hartnell's, although the difference isn't huge. He's getting on in years and seems to be a tad injury prone as well, probably due to his all-or-nothing approach to the game.
The even-strength scoring rates for Hartnell, Johnson and Walker from last year were 2.31 ESP/60, 1.54 ESP/60 and 2.29 ESP/60 respectively. Keep in mind, Johnson played for a team that couldn't seem to score at ES (Canadiens - 122 ES GF, 27th in the league), meaning contextual circumstances may have repressed his rate somewhat.
Hartnell has some impressive advanced stats as well - an on ice +/- figure of 1.44, good for second in terms of forwards on the Preds. Consider that NSH only allowed 1.88 GA/60 while he as on the ice last year - the best rate by far of any forward on the team (keep in mind Walker played less than 700 minutes at ES...a relatively small number). Johnson's numbers aren't as impressive, although he was among the leaders on his team in terms of on ice +/- (0.13) and on ice GA/60 (2.08). Scott Walker was under water in terms of on ice +/- (-0.37) and his on ice GA/60 rate leaves a lot to be desired (3.25). Given that he's older, injury-prone, has some unimpressive advanced stats and the lowest career GPG rate, I would suggest eliminating Walker from contention for the Flames 2nd line RW job.
So is Hartnell worth the $1+ million more than Johnson? Given that he's pretty young and still on the upsiwng of his career, I would suggest "yes". However, if the Flames are unable to land Hartnell, Johnson may be a decent alternative who could be used in a checking/PK role in a pinch.
Let's pretend the Flames land Hartnell for about 2.5/season. Here's how the resultant forward lines might look:
Tanguay - Langkow - Iginla
Huselius - Lombardi - Hartnell
Taratukhin - Conroy - Moss
Prust - Yelle - Hamilton
(Germyn, Boyd, Nystrom, etc.)
The remaining cap space for the top-2 defender after the Hartnell signing would be about 3.996 million. Pending UFA blueliners include:
Kimmo Timonen: 5.5M
Brad Stuart: 5.0M
Sheldon Souray: 5.0M
Brian Rafalski: 5.0M
Scott Hannan: 4M
Andrei Markov: 4M
Danny Markov: 3.5M
Tom Preissing: 3.5M
Craig Rivet: 3.0M
Mathieu Schneider: 3.0M
Darryl Sydor: 2.0M
Aaron Miller: 2.0M
Andy Sutton: 2.0M
Cory Sarich: 2.0M
Could the Flames coax the likes of Hannan or Andrei Markov to Calgary for 4M? Markov led his team in ice-time in 06/07, including over 274 minutes SH. He finished the year with 49 points and a +2 (the latter being very impressive on the Canadiens). Actually, looking at the season he had last year, I suggest Markov may be a $5M or so defender. Darn. Hannan also led his team in terms of ice-time at ES and SH, while his less than impressive offensive stats (4 goals, 20 assists) may make him more affordable. Tom Preissing had a monster year in Ottawa to go with his very good year in SJ the season before. However, Preissing has excelled on the 3rd pairing thus far, and may not be the "shut-down" guy the Flames need. Preissing only averaged 15 minutes a game with the Sens and was almost NEVER put on the ice in SH situations (10:47 TOI), meaning he's probably going to be overvalued and overpaid this summer. I don't consider him a good option.
Kimo Timonen is likely the best defender available and may get up to $6 million from whoever lands him. He played the most out of any NSH player last season and excels on both the PP and PK. He managed a +20 in 06/07 and has gotten more than 40 points 5 times in his career. he also represents the perfect mobile, fleet-footed foil for Robyn Regehr. My not-so-secret fantasy for the off-season would be the trading of Warrener's bloated contract (2.35 million) for a bag of pucks, which would leave the Flames with the requisite cap space (6.346 million) to go after Timonen.
My resultant fantasy pairings would be:
Regehr - Timonen
Phaneuf - Hamrlik
Giordano - Hale
Zyuzin
Though it might be more realistic to see something like Regehr-Hannan or even Regehr-Sydor on the top pairing come September (with Warrener still hobbling along on the 3rd pairing. Ugh). For his part, Sydor is older but seems relatively capable. He doesn't score much anymore, but he's still a 20 minute/night guy and can still play against tougher competition. I believe he was paired with Zubov in Dallas last season. The threat of "diminishing returns" becomes ever more present with guys aged 35+, however.
To be realistic, let's say the Flames land Hannan and keep Rhett. The final depth chart and cap hit would looks something like:
Tanguay - Langkow - Iginla
Huselius - Lombardi - Hartnell
Taratukhin - Conroy - Moss
Prust - Yelle - Hamilton
Regehr - Hannan
Phaneuf - Hamrlik
Warrener - Giordano
(Hale, Zyuzin)
Kipper
McElhinney
Total Cap Hit: 46.004 million
Projected Cap: 48 million
Assumptions:
The Salary Cap increases to 48 million.
The actual salaries of Hartnell, Timonen, etc. are within 0.5 Million of projected salaries. This is probably wishful thinking.
Hamrlik re-signs with the Flames for $4M/year or less.
Anyways, that's how I see it shaking down at this point. A proven 20 goal scorer added to the top 6, some youthful exuberance on lines 3 and 4 and another shut-down guy to play with Regehr. All for about 46 mill.
Questions? Comments? Complaints? Criticisms?
Tuesday, May 01, 2007
Shopping List Cont'd
Yesterday's post included the potential '07 UFA's at right wing, center and defence positions. Following are the left wingers and the goaltenders:
LW: Potential Salary
Ryan Smyth: 5.5M
Paul Kariya: 4.5M
Ladislav Nagy: 4.0M
Jason Blake: 4.0M
Keith Tkachuk: 4.0M
Vycheslav Kozlov: 3.5M
Brendan Shanahan: 3.0M
Kyle Calder: 2.0M
Taylor Pyatt: 1.5M
Richard Zednick: 1.5M
Gary Roberts: 1.5M
Ruslan Fedotenko: 1.5M
Jan Bulis: 1.0M
Kirk Maltby: 1.0M
Chris Simon: 1.0M
Marcus Nilson: 0.9
Jeff Cowan: 0.9
Denis Arkhipov: 0.9
Martin Gelinas: 0.9
Vladamir Orszagh: 0.8
Dean McAmmond: 0.8
Pascal Dupuis: 0.8
Jeff Friesen: 0.7
Antti Laaksonen: 0.7
Brad May: 0.7
Bates Battaglia: 0.7
Jon Sim: 0.7
Ville Nieminen: 0.6
Brad Isbister: 0.6
Josh Green: 0.5
Peter Sejna: 0.5
Dan LaCouture: 0.5
Eric Boulton: 0.5
Brad Larsen: 0.5
Noah Clarke: 0.45
Mathieu Darche: 0.45
Matt Ellis: 0.45
Ramzi Abid: 0.45
Todd Fedoruk: 0.45
Boyd Kane: 0.45
Riley Cote: 0.45
As with the other positions, take the "potential salary" with a grain of salt. It's basically just an easy method for me to order the players from "top tier" to "bottom tier". I mean, I think Ryan Smyth's going to be getting between $5 and $6 million this summer - but predicting the frenzied chaos of free agency is a bit of a fools errand.
The Flames have 2 top notch LWer's who I am very satisfied with (Tanguay and Huselius). With the impending departure of Marcus Nilson, Calgary may have to dip into the market for a bottom 6 guy, although that gap may be filled by a youngster anyhow. From a "buy low/sell high" kind of mindset, Kyle Calder and Ruslan Fedotenko might be worth a look, assuming you believe their terrible seasons last year were aberrations. If they come at the prices listed, they would probably be worthy gambles. Calder in particular has the potential to be a capable top 6 forward.
Next...the 'tenders
Goaltenders: Potential Salary
J.S. Giguere: 5.5M
Niklas Backstrom: 3.0M
Curtis Joseph : 2.0M
Dominik Hasek: 2.0M
David Aebischer: 1.9M
Mathieu Garon: 1.5M
Kevin Weekes: 1.5M
Johan Holmqvist: 1.5M
Robert Esche: 1.0M
Jocelyn Thibault: 1.0M
Jussi Markkanen: 0.9
Sean Burke: 0.9
Ed Belfour: 0.7
Jamie McLennan: 0.5
Ty Conklin: 0.5
JS Aubin: 0.5
Scott Clemmensen: 0.5
Mike Dunham: 0.5
Wade Dubielewicz: 0.5
Wade Flaherty: 0.45
Brian Boucher: 0.45
Karl Goehring: 0.45
Giguere is the undisputed crown jewl of this crop, although Im guessing Backstrom will conjure some significant interest as well. Course, there's a high probability that both of these guys will be re-signed by their current squads, so...
The Flames might be shopping for a back-up goaltender if they don't think McElhinney can make the jump (or if they think sitting behind Kipper for 70 games would be bad for his development). Unfortunately, back-up goalies are kinda like socks - you know you need 'em but you don't want to spend money on 'em anyways. With that in mind, none of the possibilities really get me very excited. Should the Flames go with a proven, but older and possibly injury prone guy like Burke? Maybe fellow Fin Jussi Markkanen would work behind Kipper? Or, should Sutter just admit the guy he gets isn't going to play much and sign a cheap, warm body like Dunham? It's a tough tightrope to walk - finding a player who's cheap, doesn't mind working the bench most of the season but is still effective when called upon. Personally, I hope one of the kids gets a shot, myself.
The next step will be to fully assess the Flames roster needs and cap space and start plugging the holes with the most appropriate names. Expect that to follow later in the week.
This 'n That:
Ansar Kahn, beat writer for the Detroit Red Wings recently slammed Jim Playfair in an interview. The offending quote was as follows:
The only reason the Calgary series deteriorated in Game 5 was because Flames coach Jim Playfair lost control of his players, not that he ever had much control to begin with. I've seen a lot of lousy coaches over the years and Playfair has to be near the top of the list. Calgary's abysmal road record alone indicates this guy's inability to manage his bench properly.
Nice to have an outsiders perspective on Nervous Jimmy. the entire thing can be found over at the Sharkspage. Hattip to Colin S over at Duncan's blog for the link.
Jarome Iginla's half-sister, Theresa Iginla, is apparently kicking some butt at the College level of female hockey. Considering her pedigree and his rapid rate of decline, I would suggest Theresa and Tony Amonte are on about the same level these days.
LW: Potential Salary
Ryan Smyth: 5.5M
Paul Kariya: 4.5M
Ladislav Nagy: 4.0M
Jason Blake: 4.0M
Keith Tkachuk: 4.0M
Vycheslav Kozlov: 3.5M
Brendan Shanahan: 3.0M
Kyle Calder: 2.0M
Taylor Pyatt: 1.5M
Richard Zednick: 1.5M
Gary Roberts: 1.5M
Ruslan Fedotenko: 1.5M
Jan Bulis: 1.0M
Kirk Maltby: 1.0M
Chris Simon: 1.0M
Marcus Nilson: 0.9
Jeff Cowan: 0.9
Denis Arkhipov: 0.9
Martin Gelinas: 0.9
Vladamir Orszagh: 0.8
Dean McAmmond: 0.8
Pascal Dupuis: 0.8
Jeff Friesen: 0.7
Antti Laaksonen: 0.7
Brad May: 0.7
Bates Battaglia: 0.7
Jon Sim: 0.7
Ville Nieminen: 0.6
Brad Isbister: 0.6
Josh Green: 0.5
Peter Sejna: 0.5
Dan LaCouture: 0.5
Eric Boulton: 0.5
Brad Larsen: 0.5
Noah Clarke: 0.45
Mathieu Darche: 0.45
Matt Ellis: 0.45
Ramzi Abid: 0.45
Todd Fedoruk: 0.45
Boyd Kane: 0.45
Riley Cote: 0.45
As with the other positions, take the "potential salary" with a grain of salt. It's basically just an easy method for me to order the players from "top tier" to "bottom tier". I mean, I think Ryan Smyth's going to be getting between $5 and $6 million this summer - but predicting the frenzied chaos of free agency is a bit of a fools errand.
The Flames have 2 top notch LWer's who I am very satisfied with (Tanguay and Huselius). With the impending departure of Marcus Nilson, Calgary may have to dip into the market for a bottom 6 guy, although that gap may be filled by a youngster anyhow. From a "buy low/sell high" kind of mindset, Kyle Calder and Ruslan Fedotenko might be worth a look, assuming you believe their terrible seasons last year were aberrations. If they come at the prices listed, they would probably be worthy gambles. Calder in particular has the potential to be a capable top 6 forward.
Next...the 'tenders
Goaltenders: Potential Salary
J.S. Giguere: 5.5M
Niklas Backstrom: 3.0M
Curtis Joseph : 2.0M
Dominik Hasek: 2.0M
David Aebischer: 1.9M
Mathieu Garon: 1.5M
Kevin Weekes: 1.5M
Johan Holmqvist: 1.5M
Robert Esche: 1.0M
Jocelyn Thibault: 1.0M
Jussi Markkanen: 0.9
Sean Burke: 0.9
Ed Belfour: 0.7
Jamie McLennan: 0.5
Ty Conklin: 0.5
JS Aubin: 0.5
Scott Clemmensen: 0.5
Mike Dunham: 0.5
Wade Dubielewicz: 0.5
Wade Flaherty: 0.45
Brian Boucher: 0.45
Karl Goehring: 0.45
Giguere is the undisputed crown jewl of this crop, although Im guessing Backstrom will conjure some significant interest as well. Course, there's a high probability that both of these guys will be re-signed by their current squads, so...
The Flames might be shopping for a back-up goaltender if they don't think McElhinney can make the jump (or if they think sitting behind Kipper for 70 games would be bad for his development). Unfortunately, back-up goalies are kinda like socks - you know you need 'em but you don't want to spend money on 'em anyways. With that in mind, none of the possibilities really get me very excited. Should the Flames go with a proven, but older and possibly injury prone guy like Burke? Maybe fellow Fin Jussi Markkanen would work behind Kipper? Or, should Sutter just admit the guy he gets isn't going to play much and sign a cheap, warm body like Dunham? It's a tough tightrope to walk - finding a player who's cheap, doesn't mind working the bench most of the season but is still effective when called upon. Personally, I hope one of the kids gets a shot, myself.
The next step will be to fully assess the Flames roster needs and cap space and start plugging the holes with the most appropriate names. Expect that to follow later in the week.
This 'n That:
Ansar Kahn, beat writer for the Detroit Red Wings recently slammed Jim Playfair in an interview. The offending quote was as follows:
The only reason the Calgary series deteriorated in Game 5 was because Flames coach Jim Playfair lost control of his players, not that he ever had much control to begin with. I've seen a lot of lousy coaches over the years and Playfair has to be near the top of the list. Calgary's abysmal road record alone indicates this guy's inability to manage his bench properly.
Nice to have an outsiders perspective on Nervous Jimmy. the entire thing can be found over at the Sharkspage. Hattip to Colin S over at Duncan's blog for the link.
Jarome Iginla's half-sister, Theresa Iginla, is apparently kicking some butt at the College level of female hockey. Considering her pedigree and his rapid rate of decline, I would suggest Theresa and Tony Amonte are on about the same level these days.
Monday, April 30, 2007
Let's Start Shopping - Edited (added Selanne to UFA list)
I've been going through the various UFA's over the last few days, just trying to get a sense of what may be available for the Flames come July 1.
Here's an untidy list of the centers who are scheduled to become unrestricted this summer:
Centers: Potential Salary
Daniel Briere: 6M
Chris Drury: 5.5M
Scott Gomez: 4.5M
Peter Forsberg: 3.0M
Robert Lang: 2.5M
Radek Bonk: 2.5M
Petr Sykora: 2.5M
Viktor Kozlov: 2.0M
Tyler Arnason: 2.0M
Michal Handzus: 2.0M
Mike Comrie: 2.0M
Jozef Stumpel: 1.7M
Pierre Turgeon: 1.5M
Brett McLean: 1.5M
Todd White: 1.5M
Wes Walz: 1.5M
Bryan Smolinski: 1.5M
Michael Peca: 1.5M
Jeff O'Neill: 1.5M
Nik Antropov: 1.5M
Yanic Perrault: 1.5M
Mike York: 1.5M
Eric Belanger: 1.5M
Waye Primeau: 1.0M
Ian Laperriere: 1.0M
Eric Lindrom: 1.0M
Stu Barnes: 1.0M
Patrik Stefan: 1.0M
Mike Ricci: 1.0M
Jeremy Roenick: 1.0M
Josef Vasicek: 1.0M
Glen Metropolit: 0.9
Trevor Linden: 0.75
Jeff Hamilton: 0.75
Adam Mair: 0.75
Toby Peterson: 0.75
Mark Smith: 0.7
Michael Holmqvist: 0.7
Boyd Devereaux: 0.7
Randy Robitaille: 0.6
Wyatt Smyth: 0.5
Jason Morgan: 0.5
Tommi Santala: 0.5
Carl Corazinni: 0.5
Scott Nichol: 0.5
Jerred Smithson: 0.5
Mike Glumac: 0.5
Michael Ryan: 0.5
Travis Green: 0.5
Erik Rasmussen: 0.5
Eric Boguinecki: 0.5
Andreas Karlsson: 0.5
Eric Perrin: 0.5
Peter Nedved: 0.5
Byron Ritchie: 0.45
Brad Moran: 0.45
Mark Hartigan: 0.45
Marty Murray: 0.45
Craig MacDonald: 0.45
Matt Hussey: 0.45
Trent Whitefield: 0.45
Jeremy Reich: 0.45
Serge Payer: 0.45
Jim Dowd: 0.45
Jason Wiemer: 0.45
Mark Cullen: 0.45
The "potential salary" is basically just my stab in the dark at what the player will be commanding in the open market (Millions/per year). Depending on who/what GM's start ravenously chasing in the off-seaon, the number listed may be right on or wildly inaccurate. I made an educated guessed based on the players age, past production and current salary.
There are some decent big names in the list, including Drury, Briere and Gomez. The 2nd tier includes guys like Handzus, Stumpel, Arnason, Viktor Kozlov and Comrie. There aren't a lot of "diamond in the rough" types to my eye: perhaps Todd White could be a decently priced addition to many team's bottom 6 forwards...
Of course, any talk about centers is basically moot from a Flames perspective. Calgary is virtually awash in middlemen, with Langkow, Lombo, Conroy and Yelle already taking up spots and Boyd and Taratukhin pushing up from the minors. Meaning should you see Sutter attract a pivot in the off-season, expect a deal to ship out of one the existing guys to follow soon after.
Anyways, here's a list of players at right wing, which is currently an organizational weakness:
RWs: Potential Salary
Teemu Selanne: 5.5M
Dainius Zubrus: 4.0M
Bill Guerin: 3.5M
Todd Bertuzzi: 3.0M
Scott Hartnell: 2.5M
Mike Johnson: 1.5M
Mark Recchi: 1.5M
Scott Walker: 1.5M
Tony Amonte: 1.0M
Owen Nolan: 1.0M
Peter Bondra: 1.0M
Anson Carter: 1.0M
Arron Asham: 0.9
Nils Ekman: 0.9
Radek Dvorak: 0.8
Matthew Barnaby: 0.7
Grant Marshall: 0.7
Jed Ortmeyer: 0.7
Jason Ward: 0.7
Mark Rycroft: 0.6
Scott Parker: 0.6
Tom Kostopoulos: 0.6
Petr Tenkrat: 0.6
Niko Dimitrakos: 0.6
JP Vigier: 0.6
Darren McCarty: 0.5
Ben Guite: 0.5
Lee Goren: 0.5
Shawn Thornton: 0.5
Reed Low: 0.5
Josh Langfeld: 0.5
Brad Tapper: 0.5
Eric Meloche: 0.5
Denis Hamel: 0.5
Ronal Petrovicky: 0.5
Rob DiMaio: 0.5
Pat Leahy: 0.45
Jeff Hoggan: 0.45
Aaron Downey: 0.45
Alexander Mogilny: 0.45
There isn't a lot here, to be frank. Zubrus, Guerin, Hartnell and Bertuzzi are probably the best of the bunch. As a Flames fan, I'd love to see Zubrus playing on the 2nd line with Langkow and Huselius, but chances are he'll get priced out of the Flames range by the market. Hartnell might be the best bet here - he's a competent enough 2-way player and he shouldn't be ridiculously expensive.
Finally, I've compiled a list of UFA defencemen as well:
Defence: Potential Salary
Kimmo Timonen: 5.5M
Brad Stuart: 5.0M
Sheldon Souray: 5.0M
Brian Rafalski: 5.0M
Roman Hamrlik: 4M
Scott Hannan: 4M
Andrei Markov: 4M
Danny Markov: 3.5M
Tom Preissing: 3.5M
Craig Rivet: 3.0M
Mathieu Schneider: 3.0M
Darryl Sydor: 2.0M
Aaron Miller: 2.0M
Andy Sutton: 2.0M
Cory Sarich: 2.0M
Greg De Vries: 1.8M
Brent Sopel: 1.5M
Sean O'Donnell: 1.5M
Jaroslav Modry: 1.5M
Bryan Berard: 1.5M
Teppo Numminen: 1.5M
Brad Lukowich: 1.5M
Tom Poti: 1.5M
Patrice Brisebois: 1.0M
Ossi Vaananen: 1.0M
Daniel Tjarnqvist: 1.0M
Martin Skoula: 1.0M
Vitaly Vishnevski: 1.0M
Glen Wesley: 1.0M
Nolan Pratt: 1.0M
Bryan Muir: 1.0M
Jan Hejda: 0.9
Chris Chelios: 0.9
Janne Niinimaa: 0.9
Josef Melichar: 0.9
David Tanabe: 0.9
Ric Jackman: 0.8
Ken Klee: 0.7
Jon Klemm: 0.7
Jamie Heward: 0.7
Anders Eriksson: 0.7
Jiri Fischer: 0.7
Greg Zanon: 0.7
Thomas Pock: 0.7
Shane Hnidy: 0.7
Jamie Rivers: 0.6
Sean Hill: 0.6
Rob Scuderi: 0.6
Alain Nasreddine: 0.6
Lwarence Nycholat: 0.5
Brad Ference: 0.5
Yannick Tremblay: 0.5
Joe DiPenta: 0.5
Kent Huskins: 0.5
Mike Weaver: 0.5
David Koci: 0.5
Derrick Walser: 0.5
Brad Norton: 0.5
Sheldon Brookbank: 0.5
Tomas Mojzis: 0.5
Jason York: 0.5
Bobby Allen: 0.5
Nathan Dempsey: 0.5
Alex Brooks: 0.5
Jim Fahey: 0.5
Dan McGillis: 0.5
Joel Bouchard: 0.5
Jason Strudwick: 0.5
Martin Grenier: 0.5
Eric Cairns: 0.5
Joel Kwiatkowski: 0.5
Luke Richardson: 0.5
Ian Moran: 0.45
David Printz: 0.45
Micki Dupont: 0.45
There are over 70 defencemen set to test the UFA waters in the summer, but only a few of them are of the "elite" quality. Kimmo Timonen is probably the best of the bunch. He can competently play against the big guns and he puts up points. Brian Rafalski will also command a decent pay day, as will Hannan and the Markovs (Danny and Andrei). Some sucker will probably pony up 5 mill for Sheldon Souray's -20 something, thanks to his gawdy PP numbers. And, of course, Brad Stuart will be highly sought after thanks to his size, age and pedigree.
There are more "middle of the road" options in the blueliner pool as compared to the RWers though. Sutton, Sarich, Schneider, Rivet, Miller, Sydor, Sopel and Skoula represent "better than bad" options, depending on organizational needs. Sutton is interesting, if only because he's a monster of a man (6'6", 245 pounds). by the end of the year, he wasn't facing top competition, though. The Zhitnik/Havelid duo was matched against the Jagr line in the play-offs, meaning Sutton might just be an expensive but bruising bottom pairing guy.
The Flames are going to need to re-sign Stuart or find a complimentary player for Robyn Regehr amongst those listed. Of course, I'd like to see Timonen in that role (mobile, good puck mover, can play big minutes) but, of course, so would every other GM for every other team. He'll likely be too pricey. The Flames may need to plug a hole beside Phaneuf if Hammer doesn't re-sign as well. Would a Sydor, Rivet, Sarich get the job done there? Danny Markov might look nice next to the Dion, though he might be too expensive as well.
Keep an eye on Greg Zanon. He was averaging close to 20 minutes/night by the end of the year for Nashville and playing pretty competently, albeit on the 3rd pairing. He's only 27 and might just be a decent find for teams trying to cheaply plug some holes on their back-end with guys who can quietly get the job done.
Anyways, that's the extent of my explorations so far. I think I'll put up the LW list tomorrow, just to "complete the picture" so to speak. If anyone has a wish list, suggestions or wants to share any other sort of speculation, feel free to leave something in the comments.
Here's an untidy list of the centers who are scheduled to become unrestricted this summer:
Centers: Potential Salary
Daniel Briere: 6M
Chris Drury: 5.5M
Scott Gomez: 4.5M
Peter Forsberg: 3.0M
Robert Lang: 2.5M
Radek Bonk: 2.5M
Petr Sykora: 2.5M
Viktor Kozlov: 2.0M
Tyler Arnason: 2.0M
Michal Handzus: 2.0M
Mike Comrie: 2.0M
Jozef Stumpel: 1.7M
Pierre Turgeon: 1.5M
Brett McLean: 1.5M
Todd White: 1.5M
Wes Walz: 1.5M
Bryan Smolinski: 1.5M
Michael Peca: 1.5M
Jeff O'Neill: 1.5M
Nik Antropov: 1.5M
Yanic Perrault: 1.5M
Mike York: 1.5M
Eric Belanger: 1.5M
Waye Primeau: 1.0M
Ian Laperriere: 1.0M
Eric Lindrom: 1.0M
Stu Barnes: 1.0M
Patrik Stefan: 1.0M
Mike Ricci: 1.0M
Jeremy Roenick: 1.0M
Josef Vasicek: 1.0M
Glen Metropolit: 0.9
Trevor Linden: 0.75
Jeff Hamilton: 0.75
Adam Mair: 0.75
Toby Peterson: 0.75
Mark Smith: 0.7
Michael Holmqvist: 0.7
Boyd Devereaux: 0.7
Randy Robitaille: 0.6
Wyatt Smyth: 0.5
Jason Morgan: 0.5
Tommi Santala: 0.5
Carl Corazinni: 0.5
Scott Nichol: 0.5
Jerred Smithson: 0.5
Mike Glumac: 0.5
Michael Ryan: 0.5
Travis Green: 0.5
Erik Rasmussen: 0.5
Eric Boguinecki: 0.5
Andreas Karlsson: 0.5
Eric Perrin: 0.5
Peter Nedved: 0.5
Byron Ritchie: 0.45
Brad Moran: 0.45
Mark Hartigan: 0.45
Marty Murray: 0.45
Craig MacDonald: 0.45
Matt Hussey: 0.45
Trent Whitefield: 0.45
Jeremy Reich: 0.45
Serge Payer: 0.45
Jim Dowd: 0.45
Jason Wiemer: 0.45
Mark Cullen: 0.45
The "potential salary" is basically just my stab in the dark at what the player will be commanding in the open market (Millions/per year). Depending on who/what GM's start ravenously chasing in the off-seaon, the number listed may be right on or wildly inaccurate. I made an educated guessed based on the players age, past production and current salary.
There are some decent big names in the list, including Drury, Briere and Gomez. The 2nd tier includes guys like Handzus, Stumpel, Arnason, Viktor Kozlov and Comrie. There aren't a lot of "diamond in the rough" types to my eye: perhaps Todd White could be a decently priced addition to many team's bottom 6 forwards...
Of course, any talk about centers is basically moot from a Flames perspective. Calgary is virtually awash in middlemen, with Langkow, Lombo, Conroy and Yelle already taking up spots and Boyd and Taratukhin pushing up from the minors. Meaning should you see Sutter attract a pivot in the off-season, expect a deal to ship out of one the existing guys to follow soon after.
Anyways, here's a list of players at right wing, which is currently an organizational weakness:
RWs: Potential Salary
Teemu Selanne: 5.5M
Dainius Zubrus: 4.0M
Bill Guerin: 3.5M
Todd Bertuzzi: 3.0M
Scott Hartnell: 2.5M
Mike Johnson: 1.5M
Mark Recchi: 1.5M
Scott Walker: 1.5M
Tony Amonte: 1.0M
Owen Nolan: 1.0M
Peter Bondra: 1.0M
Anson Carter: 1.0M
Arron Asham: 0.9
Nils Ekman: 0.9
Radek Dvorak: 0.8
Matthew Barnaby: 0.7
Grant Marshall: 0.7
Jed Ortmeyer: 0.7
Jason Ward: 0.7
Mark Rycroft: 0.6
Scott Parker: 0.6
Tom Kostopoulos: 0.6
Petr Tenkrat: 0.6
Niko Dimitrakos: 0.6
JP Vigier: 0.6
Darren McCarty: 0.5
Ben Guite: 0.5
Lee Goren: 0.5
Shawn Thornton: 0.5
Reed Low: 0.5
Josh Langfeld: 0.5
Brad Tapper: 0.5
Eric Meloche: 0.5
Denis Hamel: 0.5
Ronal Petrovicky: 0.5
Rob DiMaio: 0.5
Pat Leahy: 0.45
Jeff Hoggan: 0.45
Aaron Downey: 0.45
Alexander Mogilny: 0.45
There isn't a lot here, to be frank. Zubrus, Guerin, Hartnell and Bertuzzi are probably the best of the bunch. As a Flames fan, I'd love to see Zubrus playing on the 2nd line with Langkow and Huselius, but chances are he'll get priced out of the Flames range by the market. Hartnell might be the best bet here - he's a competent enough 2-way player and he shouldn't be ridiculously expensive.
Finally, I've compiled a list of UFA defencemen as well:
Defence: Potential Salary
Kimmo Timonen: 5.5M
Brad Stuart: 5.0M
Sheldon Souray: 5.0M
Brian Rafalski: 5.0M
Roman Hamrlik: 4M
Scott Hannan: 4M
Andrei Markov: 4M
Danny Markov: 3.5M
Tom Preissing: 3.5M
Craig Rivet: 3.0M
Mathieu Schneider: 3.0M
Darryl Sydor: 2.0M
Aaron Miller: 2.0M
Andy Sutton: 2.0M
Cory Sarich: 2.0M
Greg De Vries: 1.8M
Brent Sopel: 1.5M
Sean O'Donnell: 1.5M
Jaroslav Modry: 1.5M
Bryan Berard: 1.5M
Teppo Numminen: 1.5M
Brad Lukowich: 1.5M
Tom Poti: 1.5M
Patrice Brisebois: 1.0M
Ossi Vaananen: 1.0M
Daniel Tjarnqvist: 1.0M
Martin Skoula: 1.0M
Vitaly Vishnevski: 1.0M
Glen Wesley: 1.0M
Nolan Pratt: 1.0M
Bryan Muir: 1.0M
Jan Hejda: 0.9
Chris Chelios: 0.9
Janne Niinimaa: 0.9
Josef Melichar: 0.9
David Tanabe: 0.9
Ric Jackman: 0.8
Ken Klee: 0.7
Jon Klemm: 0.7
Jamie Heward: 0.7
Anders Eriksson: 0.7
Jiri Fischer: 0.7
Greg Zanon: 0.7
Thomas Pock: 0.7
Shane Hnidy: 0.7
Jamie Rivers: 0.6
Sean Hill: 0.6
Rob Scuderi: 0.6
Alain Nasreddine: 0.6
Lwarence Nycholat: 0.5
Brad Ference: 0.5
Yannick Tremblay: 0.5
Joe DiPenta: 0.5
Kent Huskins: 0.5
Mike Weaver: 0.5
David Koci: 0.5
Derrick Walser: 0.5
Brad Norton: 0.5
Sheldon Brookbank: 0.5
Tomas Mojzis: 0.5
Jason York: 0.5
Bobby Allen: 0.5
Nathan Dempsey: 0.5
Alex Brooks: 0.5
Jim Fahey: 0.5
Dan McGillis: 0.5
Joel Bouchard: 0.5
Jason Strudwick: 0.5
Martin Grenier: 0.5
Eric Cairns: 0.5
Joel Kwiatkowski: 0.5
Luke Richardson: 0.5
Ian Moran: 0.45
David Printz: 0.45
Micki Dupont: 0.45
There are over 70 defencemen set to test the UFA waters in the summer, but only a few of them are of the "elite" quality. Kimmo Timonen is probably the best of the bunch. He can competently play against the big guns and he puts up points. Brian Rafalski will also command a decent pay day, as will Hannan and the Markovs (Danny and Andrei). Some sucker will probably pony up 5 mill for Sheldon Souray's -20 something, thanks to his gawdy PP numbers. And, of course, Brad Stuart will be highly sought after thanks to his size, age and pedigree.
There are more "middle of the road" options in the blueliner pool as compared to the RWers though. Sutton, Sarich, Schneider, Rivet, Miller, Sydor, Sopel and Skoula represent "better than bad" options, depending on organizational needs. Sutton is interesting, if only because he's a monster of a man (6'6", 245 pounds). by the end of the year, he wasn't facing top competition, though. The Zhitnik/Havelid duo was matched against the Jagr line in the play-offs, meaning Sutton might just be an expensive but bruising bottom pairing guy.
The Flames are going to need to re-sign Stuart or find a complimentary player for Robyn Regehr amongst those listed. Of course, I'd like to see Timonen in that role (mobile, good puck mover, can play big minutes) but, of course, so would every other GM for every other team. He'll likely be too pricey. The Flames may need to plug a hole beside Phaneuf if Hammer doesn't re-sign as well. Would a Sydor, Rivet, Sarich get the job done there? Danny Markov might look nice next to the Dion, though he might be too expensive as well.
Keep an eye on Greg Zanon. He was averaging close to 20 minutes/night by the end of the year for Nashville and playing pretty competently, albeit on the 3rd pairing. He's only 27 and might just be a decent find for teams trying to cheaply plug some holes on their back-end with guys who can quietly get the job done.
Anyways, that's the extent of my explorations so far. I think I'll put up the LW list tomorrow, just to "complete the picture" so to speak. If anyone has a wish list, suggestions or wants to share any other sort of speculation, feel free to leave something in the comments.
Friday, April 27, 2007
First Step
I've been absent for a few days, partially because, well, the Flames don't play hockey anymore and partially because I'm pacing myself now that the off-season is upon us. Naturally, I have dozens of know-it-all solutions and loud-mouth denunciations rattling around in my brain but with 5 months of inactivity staring me in the face, I thought it wise to space them across the coming weeks.
I've said my piece on the Playfair thing. Whether or not he remains the Flames coach will be answered in the next few months.
The next burning issue facing Sutter is, of course, the state of the roster. The Flames have 10 players scheduled to become UFA's starting July 1st. According to NHLnumbers.com, that list includes:
Tony Amonte
Jeff Friesen
Marcus Nilson
Darren McCarty
Byron Ritchie
Wayne Primeau
Roman Hamrlik
Brad Stuart
Brad Ference
Jamie McLennan
None of the forward free agents of are of much concern. Amonte, Friesen and Nilson are probably the best players of those listed and I consider their contributions to be replacable by younger, cheaper players. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me if Amonte retires. Ditto for Darren McCarty, who is so scarred and battle-worn it seems unlikely he will ever lace up a pair of skates again. Byron Ritchie is a capable 13th forward type, but he may just bolt to another franchise with the hope of cracking the roster full-time. Wayne Primeau impressed for the first couple weeks of his Calgary audition, but slowed to the degree that his contributions seemed rather negligible. I'm guessing he'll be gone too.
The gaps up front will be filled by the farm and likely one or two FA signings. Those Omaha Knights who are most probable to become Calgary Flames next year is another post altogether, but here's a short list anyhow:
Carsen Germyn
Andrei Taratukhin
David Van Der Gulik
Brandon Prust
Tomi Maki
In Germyn and Taratukhin, the Flames have a couple of mature, two-way forwards that can contribute at both ends of the ice. Both forwards tied for the team lead with 60 points this season, with Germyn leading the club with 28 goals. He's had back to back 20+ goal campaigns in the minors.
Prust, Van Der Gulik and Maki are checkers to varying degrees. Prust is a shit-disturber in the Steve Begin/Sean Avery vein. His presence and energy would be a welcome addition to the bottom trio I think. Van Der Gulik is a defensive specialist a la Stephane Yelle. He finished his first pro season in the AHL with 16 goals and a staggering +27 rating, which was a full +11 above the 2nd best player on the squad. Van Der Gulik isn't big or mean - just smart. He could become a competent PK specialist type at the NHL level if his progress continues forward. Finally, Tomi Maki doesn't appear to be very good at anything, but WI likes him so I threw him in there for kicks.
Unfortunately for the Flames, the farm isn't going to be of much help when it comes to their biggest organizational weaknesses going into the new year: a top 6 RW and at least one top 4 defender.
With all apologies to David Moss, who acquitted himself pretty well in his rookie season, the Flames have a relatively weak stable of RWs after Jarome Iginla. A capable 2nd or 3rd line winger should be on Sutter's shopping list in July.
Of greater importance will be a top 4 blueliner, dependent, of course, on what happens with pending free agents Roman Hamrlik and Brad Stuart. Hamrlik has already been quoted around town saying he earnestly wants to re-sign with the club. I would suggest a 2 year deal at or below his current salary would get the deal done.
Stuart, however, has been a lot less forthcoming. His interviews have yielded the typical "I like the team, but we'll see..." kind of responses most UFAs give before bolting. If Stuart should decide to sign somewhere in California over the summer, which is the prevailing rumor, the Flames will be stuck with a big gaping hole beside Robyn Regehr again. With Phaneuf still looking very much like a #4 defenceman by the end of the year, Calgary will most likely have to either do whatever it takes to keep Stuart here or start bidding on the open market for one of the other desirable UFAs. Off the top of my head, buys like Kimmo Timonen and Andrei Markov might fit the bill, although further investigation into their basic and advanced stats would be in order. Preferably, I would like to see Stuart return, mainly because I liked the way he and Regehr got on during his limited time here, but that may be wishful thinking.
In the back-up position, I would expect Jamie McLennan to ride off into the sunset and into a boradcast booth somewhere and leave the door open for young AHL stand-out Curtis McElhinney. The Flames have a number of maturing goaltender prospects in the junior leagues (Irving, Lalande, Keetley) who may well move up to pro next season, meaning the Flames will need to clear space on the farm in order to accommodate them.
McElhinney was the Knight's clear-cut #1 'tender this year ahead of Brent Krahn, meaning he has the inside track for the job. Krahn managed some mediocre numbers in the AHL this year and has probably worn out his welcome as prospect in the Flames system. It wouldn't surprise me to see him dealt as part of a bundle for a real player or in some minor, stand-alone deal in the off-season.
Anyways, those are my broad, initial thoughts on the Flames roster issues going forward. As the weeks progress, expect some salary-cap accounting as well as barely literate statistical comparisons to flesh out the analysis...
I've said my piece on the Playfair thing. Whether or not he remains the Flames coach will be answered in the next few months.
The next burning issue facing Sutter is, of course, the state of the roster. The Flames have 10 players scheduled to become UFA's starting July 1st. According to NHLnumbers.com, that list includes:
Tony Amonte
Jeff Friesen
Marcus Nilson
Darren McCarty
Byron Ritchie
Wayne Primeau
Roman Hamrlik
Brad Stuart
Brad Ference
Jamie McLennan
None of the forward free agents of are of much concern. Amonte, Friesen and Nilson are probably the best players of those listed and I consider their contributions to be replacable by younger, cheaper players. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me if Amonte retires. Ditto for Darren McCarty, who is so scarred and battle-worn it seems unlikely he will ever lace up a pair of skates again. Byron Ritchie is a capable 13th forward type, but he may just bolt to another franchise with the hope of cracking the roster full-time. Wayne Primeau impressed for the first couple weeks of his Calgary audition, but slowed to the degree that his contributions seemed rather negligible. I'm guessing he'll be gone too.
The gaps up front will be filled by the farm and likely one or two FA signings. Those Omaha Knights who are most probable to become Calgary Flames next year is another post altogether, but here's a short list anyhow:
Carsen Germyn
Andrei Taratukhin
David Van Der Gulik
Brandon Prust
Tomi Maki
In Germyn and Taratukhin, the Flames have a couple of mature, two-way forwards that can contribute at both ends of the ice. Both forwards tied for the team lead with 60 points this season, with Germyn leading the club with 28 goals. He's had back to back 20+ goal campaigns in the minors.
Prust, Van Der Gulik and Maki are checkers to varying degrees. Prust is a shit-disturber in the Steve Begin/Sean Avery vein. His presence and energy would be a welcome addition to the bottom trio I think. Van Der Gulik is a defensive specialist a la Stephane Yelle. He finished his first pro season in the AHL with 16 goals and a staggering +27 rating, which was a full +11 above the 2nd best player on the squad. Van Der Gulik isn't big or mean - just smart. He could become a competent PK specialist type at the NHL level if his progress continues forward. Finally, Tomi Maki doesn't appear to be very good at anything, but WI likes him so I threw him in there for kicks.
Unfortunately for the Flames, the farm isn't going to be of much help when it comes to their biggest organizational weaknesses going into the new year: a top 6 RW and at least one top 4 defender.
With all apologies to David Moss, who acquitted himself pretty well in his rookie season, the Flames have a relatively weak stable of RWs after Jarome Iginla. A capable 2nd or 3rd line winger should be on Sutter's shopping list in July.
Of greater importance will be a top 4 blueliner, dependent, of course, on what happens with pending free agents Roman Hamrlik and Brad Stuart. Hamrlik has already been quoted around town saying he earnestly wants to re-sign with the club. I would suggest a 2 year deal at or below his current salary would get the deal done.
Stuart, however, has been a lot less forthcoming. His interviews have yielded the typical "I like the team, but we'll see..." kind of responses most UFAs give before bolting. If Stuart should decide to sign somewhere in California over the summer, which is the prevailing rumor, the Flames will be stuck with a big gaping hole beside Robyn Regehr again. With Phaneuf still looking very much like a #4 defenceman by the end of the year, Calgary will most likely have to either do whatever it takes to keep Stuart here or start bidding on the open market for one of the other desirable UFAs. Off the top of my head, buys like Kimmo Timonen and Andrei Markov might fit the bill, although further investigation into their basic and advanced stats would be in order. Preferably, I would like to see Stuart return, mainly because I liked the way he and Regehr got on during his limited time here, but that may be wishful thinking.
In the back-up position, I would expect Jamie McLennan to ride off into the sunset and into a boradcast booth somewhere and leave the door open for young AHL stand-out Curtis McElhinney. The Flames have a number of maturing goaltender prospects in the junior leagues (Irving, Lalande, Keetley) who may well move up to pro next season, meaning the Flames will need to clear space on the farm in order to accommodate them.
McElhinney was the Knight's clear-cut #1 'tender this year ahead of Brent Krahn, meaning he has the inside track for the job. Krahn managed some mediocre numbers in the AHL this year and has probably worn out his welcome as prospect in the Flames system. It wouldn't surprise me to see him dealt as part of a bundle for a real player or in some minor, stand-alone deal in the off-season.
Anyways, those are my broad, initial thoughts on the Flames roster issues going forward. As the weeks progress, expect some salary-cap accounting as well as barely literate statistical comparisons to flesh out the analysis...
Tuesday, April 24, 2007
Finally, Something Makes Sense
From tsn:
Also dropped from the first round rotation was veteran Mick McGeough, who worked the Stanley Cup final last year, along with Eric Furlatt, Mike Hasenfratz, Mike Leggo, Wes McCauley, Dan O'Rourke and Tim Peel.
The chances of my enjoying the rest of the play-offs have been greatly increased by this decision.
Also dropped from the first round rotation was veteran Mick McGeough, who worked the Stanley Cup final last year, along with Eric Furlatt, Mike Hasenfratz, Mike Leggo, Wes McCauley, Dan O'Rourke and Tim Peel.
The chances of my enjoying the rest of the play-offs have been greatly increased by this decision.
A tip of the Hat
I think the only good thing about the Flames first round match-up with Detroit was getting to read and interact with their excellent collection of bloggers, headed, of course, by Abel to Yzerman.
Thanks for the series Red Wings! I still hate Bertuzzi, but I can't help but respect that organization and it's continued success.
PS - Bill, if you're reading this...I can't seem to comment on your site. For whatever reason, my comments just sort of disappear once I try to get beyond the spam filter. Anyways, thanks for the kudos and I guess we'll have to agree to disagree on whether or not the series was a foregone conclusion by game 6. Oh, also, thanks for the outsider's perspective on the Playfair issue...
Thanks for the series Red Wings! I still hate Bertuzzi, but I can't help but respect that organization and it's continued success.
PS - Bill, if you're reading this...I can't seem to comment on your site. For whatever reason, my comments just sort of disappear once I try to get beyond the spam filter. Anyways, thanks for the kudos and I guess we'll have to agree to disagree on whether or not the series was a foregone conclusion by game 6. Oh, also, thanks for the outsider's perspective on the Playfair issue...
Onward
I had another 10 Jim Playfair posts ready and waiting to go, but I've decided to let that issue rest for awhile. At this point, I'll just be angrying up the blood for the express purpose of beating a dead horse.
So onto the rest of the league...
I went 6 for 8 in the first round. My misses included my homer pick (ugh...the Flames) and the Nashville Predators, who just naturally send a chill of fear down my spine owing to my being a Flames fan. I ran the board in the East, however, which makes me think I should contain my gambling to that particular Conference from now on...
Eastern Semi-finals:
Buffalo vs. NY Rangers -
The Rangers have played well over the last little while, mainly thanks to the Lundqvist renaissance and the surprising play of Sean Avery (and, perhaps, Nylander!). Unfortunately, they are meeting what I consider to be the Juggernaut of the East - the Buffalo Sabres. Whereas most teams have "role players" and "checking lines" as the 3rd unit, the Sabres have the trio of Thomas Vanek, Derek Roy and Maxim Afinogenov who are just ready and willing to tear apart soft opposition. Look no further than Vanek's ridiculous +/- rating during the season for proof of that fact. Talk about depth. The only thing that will deny the Sabres a berth in the Eastern finals is an injury to Ryan Miller.
Prediction: Sabres in 6.
Ottawa vs. NJ -
The Devils don't have a prayer in this one. The Senators have been kicking ass since January and it's starting to look like Daniel Alfredsson has conquered his play-off demons. NJ had trouble with the Lightning, and the Senators have more depth up front, better defencemen and better goaltending.
Prediction: Ottawa in 6.
Western Semi-finals:
Anaheim vs. Vancouver -
The Canucks are now in over their heads. The only reason their offensive deficiencies didn't cost them in the first round was they met up with an equally deficient Dallas Stars squad. Luongo's the best goalie in the series, but the Ducks have the overwhelming advantage in just about every other area.
Prediction: Anaheim in 5.
Detroit vs. San Jose -
Detroit proved to be efficient and committed in the first round, but their mettle hasn't properly been tested yet. San Jose has excellent goaltending and probably superior depth on forward. Detroit has the best player in Nick Lidstrom, but even he can't be on the ice for 60 minutes every game. Wilson will find a way to exploit the Red Wings poor special teams and will probably orchestrate a Hasek meltdown by sending Bernier and Grier to stand in his face all game.
Prediction: San Jose in 7.
So onto the rest of the league...
I went 6 for 8 in the first round. My misses included my homer pick (ugh...the Flames) and the Nashville Predators, who just naturally send a chill of fear down my spine owing to my being a Flames fan. I ran the board in the East, however, which makes me think I should contain my gambling to that particular Conference from now on...
Eastern Semi-finals:
Buffalo vs. NY Rangers -
The Rangers have played well over the last little while, mainly thanks to the Lundqvist renaissance and the surprising play of Sean Avery (and, perhaps, Nylander!). Unfortunately, they are meeting what I consider to be the Juggernaut of the East - the Buffalo Sabres. Whereas most teams have "role players" and "checking lines" as the 3rd unit, the Sabres have the trio of Thomas Vanek, Derek Roy and Maxim Afinogenov who are just ready and willing to tear apart soft opposition. Look no further than Vanek's ridiculous +/- rating during the season for proof of that fact. Talk about depth. The only thing that will deny the Sabres a berth in the Eastern finals is an injury to Ryan Miller.
Prediction: Sabres in 6.
Ottawa vs. NJ -
The Devils don't have a prayer in this one. The Senators have been kicking ass since January and it's starting to look like Daniel Alfredsson has conquered his play-off demons. NJ had trouble with the Lightning, and the Senators have more depth up front, better defencemen and better goaltending.
Prediction: Ottawa in 6.
Western Semi-finals:
Anaheim vs. Vancouver -
The Canucks are now in over their heads. The only reason their offensive deficiencies didn't cost them in the first round was they met up with an equally deficient Dallas Stars squad. Luongo's the best goalie in the series, but the Ducks have the overwhelming advantage in just about every other area.
Prediction: Anaheim in 5.
Detroit vs. San Jose -
Detroit proved to be efficient and committed in the first round, but their mettle hasn't properly been tested yet. San Jose has excellent goaltending and probably superior depth on forward. Detroit has the best player in Nick Lidstrom, but even he can't be on the ice for 60 minutes every game. Wilson will find a way to exploit the Red Wings poor special teams and will probably orchestrate a Hasek meltdown by sending Bernier and Grier to stand in his face all game.
Prediction: San Jose in 7.
Monday, April 23, 2007
Requiem For a Team
In a sweet act of merciful kindness, the Detroit Red Wings pulled the plug on the fatally-ill Calgary Flames last night. While the OT period of game six was certainly "sudden-death", the term is in fact a misnomer considering Calgary's long, slow, painful march to oblivion. By the end of the game on Sunday, after being handily outplayed and outclassed for nearly the entire series, it was clear there was little left for the Flames but to be euthanized.
It's difficult, at this juncture, to consider this season anything but an unmitigated disaster for the Calgary organization. The Flames went from pre-season favorites to mid-season play-off hopefuls to post-season flunkies. All this despite the fact that the roster - one of the best the franchise has seen in over a decade - was bolstered and improved as the season progressed. They spent to the cap, made bold deadline deals to shore-up weaknesses and it didn't seem to make a lick of difference in terms of on-ice play. Sutter made some good moves this year (Tanguay for Leopold, Conroy for Lundmark, Stuart for Ference) and some bad ones (signing Friesen), but clearly the most telling error was the hiring of Playfair. Or, rather, the "not firing" of Nervous Jimmy when it was quite clear he'd lost the team back in March. It's plain as the nose on Tim Hunter's face that Ol' Canaryshirt was basically a 16 year old who was given keys to a Ferrari on his birthday; and, with all apologies to Dany Heatley, he pretty much drove it into a wall.
"Our play on the road speaks volumes," he said. "When you lose (Game 5) 5-1 and your goalie is still a star . . . something's not right. You guys do the math. We're open to being dissected now. It's not up to me to say what the problem is, but I think it's fairly obvious."
You said it, Rhett. I agree.
By the end of the year, the Calgary Flames weren't particularly good at anything. They didn't score more than 3 goals in the month of April. They allowed a lot of shots and generated very few. They weren't particularly physical or fast or intelligent. Their forecheck proved to be limp and ineffectual. Their break-out was easily stuffed. They trapped at times, but did so poorly. Their scorers were silenced. They lost their composure in critical games at critical times. Only Kiprusoff, operating alone, managed to maintain some vestige of excellence.
To put it plainly, the team lacked a cohesive, successful strategy. The fact that the Flames played their hearts out and were still embarrassingly over-matched yesterday speaks volumes about the will and mind of the man who was directing traffic behind the bench. The roster didn't lack skill and it didn't lack effort and it was still out-shot more than 2 to 1 in an elimination game in it's own building. If this isn't the clearest, most damning indictment of the coaching staff, I don't know what is.
My condemnation of Playfair is not a knee-jerk reaction to the disappointing round 1 loss. I was loudly questioning his abilities as far back as February. And the same issues I was harping on then - questionable roster decisions, terrible road performance, lack of consistency, lack of cohesion - proved to be the team's undoing in the post-season. In fact, not only were the aforementioned failings still evident come April, they were magnified and exploited by a comparable roster and a superior coach. This wasn't a series won by a chance bounce or questionable officiating. It was won decisively through a successful strategy carried out consistently by an adequately skilled and motivated line-up of players. Detroit's methods and goals were plain upon viewing - puck control and puck possession. Generate as many shots as possible while allowing as few as possible. Force players to the boards in the defensive end, double-team Iginla, two men on the puck at all times.
In contrast, I can't adequately detail what the Flames gameplan was. I'm not sure whether this is due to the fact that it was absent, poorly matched to the opponent or just not executed properly. Were the Flames trying to trap and take advantage of neutral zone errors? Create chances on the transition? Because they did none of those things competently. I think the trap was sorta part of the equation - due to the limp 1-2-2 forecheck Calgary frequently employed - but the Red Wings escaped the neutral zone with the puck so easily I can't really be sure.
Fuck and double fuck. What a waste of a season. Iginla and Kipper get one year older and the franchise takes a step back rather than forward. Left on the compost-heap is career-like-years for Iginla, Tanguay, Lombardi, Huselius and Langkow. Both Hamrlik and Stuart are UFA's come summer, potentially leaving a gaping hole on the blueline. I guess the only thing to truly look forward to in the off-season, besides Playfair walking the plank, of course, is the inevitable departure of deadweight like McCarty, Amonte and Friesen (and Warrener, if I had my way). Beyond that, the Flames are facing a lot of questions going into the final season of the Kipper-Iggy-Regehr era of this team.
Sunday, April 22, 2007
Game 5 Review
Sigh.
I started out this season with expectations of a division title and a respectable post-season run.
In the wreckage of yet another road implosion, with the Flames staring into the black maw of elimination, I'm left with the unenviable task of defending the antics of a demoralized and frustrated 8th place seed.
What a shitshow this has become.
Unfortunately, many of the issues I pointed out in the prior post were in full display yesterday afternoon in Detroit: lack of ES scoring, an ineffective Jarome Iginla and a PP that was bound to regress back to more realistic numbers at some point.
(Playfair certainly helped the PP come back down to Earth yesterday, though. In the face of an impotent attack, his brilliant mid-game adjustment was to give guys like Amonte and Primeau more PP time.)
And now the players are left with slashes and punches to defend their damaged pride. Were they able, or at least hopeful, of exacting revenge for the continued road maulings through actual play - that is, shooting, scoring, winning - they wouldn't be left with attempting to claim a pound of flesh from their opponents at the end of games. In a way, it was good to see the Flames get angry, to see them defend themselves and their pride after a fashion...it's just too bad it's had to come down to this level.
McLennan suspended, most likely to end his career. Playfair fined. Iginla rendered nearly irrelevent. And I thought last year's play-off performance was embarrassing.
I'm fully convinced now that this evening's match is all but meaningless. Should they somehow prevail, the Flames have zero hope of beating the Red Wings back in Detroit on Tuesday. A victory tonight would really just be another face-saving excercise for the players and little else.
Fairwell Playfair. I won't miss you when you're gone.
I started out this season with expectations of a division title and a respectable post-season run.
In the wreckage of yet another road implosion, with the Flames staring into the black maw of elimination, I'm left with the unenviable task of defending the antics of a demoralized and frustrated 8th place seed.
What a shitshow this has become.
Unfortunately, many of the issues I pointed out in the prior post were in full display yesterday afternoon in Detroit: lack of ES scoring, an ineffective Jarome Iginla and a PP that was bound to regress back to more realistic numbers at some point.
(Playfair certainly helped the PP come back down to Earth yesterday, though. In the face of an impotent attack, his brilliant mid-game adjustment was to give guys like Amonte and Primeau more PP time.)
And now the players are left with slashes and punches to defend their damaged pride. Were they able, or at least hopeful, of exacting revenge for the continued road maulings through actual play - that is, shooting, scoring, winning - they wouldn't be left with attempting to claim a pound of flesh from their opponents at the end of games. In a way, it was good to see the Flames get angry, to see them defend themselves and their pride after a fashion...it's just too bad it's had to come down to this level.
McLennan suspended, most likely to end his career. Playfair fined. Iginla rendered nearly irrelevent. And I thought last year's play-off performance was embarrassing.
I'm fully convinced now that this evening's match is all but meaningless. Should they somehow prevail, the Flames have zero hope of beating the Red Wings back in Detroit on Tuesday. A victory tonight would really just be another face-saving excercise for the players and little else.
Fairwell Playfair. I won't miss you when you're gone.
Saturday, April 21, 2007
Friday, April 20, 2007
Woo-hoo?
Yay! We won! Falmes all teh the way!!!!1!1!!
Im happy that we've made it into a series and recaptured some pride. And it's great that the general fanship has been enlivened 'round these parts by the last 2 victories.
But, to be honest, I haven't seen enough recently to assuage my doubts about this team or to convince me we're actually going to win this baby in the end.
Source(s) of Pessimism:
- The Flames have been outscored at 5on5 the whole series. They've won the special teams battle thus far, largely on the back of some really stellar goaltending, a couple of bounces and a some nice 5on3 opportunities. That's not a formula for success. Even at home, assuming Playfair was getting the match-ups he preferred, the big guns were pretty much silenced at ES.
- Detroit could have won either game at the Dome. The Flames didn't have a chance in any of the games in JLA this entire year. As such, the next 3 contests - two of which occur in Detroit - seem rather winnable for the Red Wings. Not so much for the Flames.
- Jarome Iginla still isn't the guy I expected to see in the play-offs. While Miikka Kiprusoff has elevated his play to new, astounding heights, Jarome continues to look "just alright" to me. His GWG in the 3rd contest was notable and his pass to set-up Langkow's break-away last night was great. Aside from that - meh. If Iggy was playing like the unstoppable force he was in 03/04 or, even, November and December of this year, I'd have more reason to believe the Flames might just pull-off an upset...
till that happens (or if), I remain extremely skeptical of this team's chances to advance.
- Jim Playfair. He still does little to incite any confidence in me. his penchant for preferring the experienced (veterans: Zyuzin, Warrener, Amonte) to the exuberant (kids: Giordano, Lombardi, Moss) despite performance and results drives me nuts (although I'm not doubt exaggerating this failing more than a tad). He still hasn't found a way to get Iggy away from Lidstrom and I don't like the fact that Conroy remains on the top line.
Oh well. The next 3 games will prove if my criticisms of Nervous Jimmy are unfounded or not.
- Rhett Warrner. Has been equal parts bad and bad+. I postulated earlier in the season that anyone who plays with Warrener suddenly looks inept themselves. Anyone watching last night's contest can vouch for the fact that the Stuart/Warrener pairing frequently looked like the worst one on the ice for the Flames. They were on for both Red Wing's goals against, not to mention the fact that Rhett got ANOTHER penalty at a critical juncture of the game. Yeah, yeah, Warrener has been standing in for Regehr on the top pairing - but there's no question he's struggled while doing so.
Even if Reggie comes back, I assume Warrener will plop back down into the 6th position and usurp Giordano's roster spot. All things being equal, I quite honestly prefer the latter to the former at this point. Warrener isn't that effective in any area on the ice these days. At least Gio can add to the attack now and then.
So there's your dose of dour, Flames blogger cynicism folks. I accept and welcome all the inevitable "stick in the mud" comments.
Im happy that we've made it into a series and recaptured some pride. And it's great that the general fanship has been enlivened 'round these parts by the last 2 victories.
But, to be honest, I haven't seen enough recently to assuage my doubts about this team or to convince me we're actually going to win this baby in the end.
Source(s) of Pessimism:
- The Flames have been outscored at 5on5 the whole series. They've won the special teams battle thus far, largely on the back of some really stellar goaltending, a couple of bounces and a some nice 5on3 opportunities. That's not a formula for success. Even at home, assuming Playfair was getting the match-ups he preferred, the big guns were pretty much silenced at ES.
- Detroit could have won either game at the Dome. The Flames didn't have a chance in any of the games in JLA this entire year. As such, the next 3 contests - two of which occur in Detroit - seem rather winnable for the Red Wings. Not so much for the Flames.
- Jarome Iginla still isn't the guy I expected to see in the play-offs. While Miikka Kiprusoff has elevated his play to new, astounding heights, Jarome continues to look "just alright" to me. His GWG in the 3rd contest was notable and his pass to set-up Langkow's break-away last night was great. Aside from that - meh. If Iggy was playing like the unstoppable force he was in 03/04 or, even, November and December of this year, I'd have more reason to believe the Flames might just pull-off an upset...
till that happens (or if), I remain extremely skeptical of this team's chances to advance.
- Jim Playfair. He still does little to incite any confidence in me. his penchant for preferring the experienced (veterans: Zyuzin, Warrener, Amonte) to the exuberant (kids: Giordano, Lombardi, Moss) despite performance and results drives me nuts (although I'm not doubt exaggerating this failing more than a tad). He still hasn't found a way to get Iggy away from Lidstrom and I don't like the fact that Conroy remains on the top line.
Oh well. The next 3 games will prove if my criticisms of Nervous Jimmy are unfounded or not.
- Rhett Warrner. Has been equal parts bad and bad+. I postulated earlier in the season that anyone who plays with Warrener suddenly looks inept themselves. Anyone watching last night's contest can vouch for the fact that the Stuart/Warrener pairing frequently looked like the worst one on the ice for the Flames. They were on for both Red Wing's goals against, not to mention the fact that Rhett got ANOTHER penalty at a critical juncture of the game. Yeah, yeah, Warrener has been standing in for Regehr on the top pairing - but there's no question he's struggled while doing so.
Even if Reggie comes back, I assume Warrener will plop back down into the 6th position and usurp Giordano's roster spot. All things being equal, I quite honestly prefer the latter to the former at this point. Warrener isn't that effective in any area on the ice these days. At least Gio can add to the attack now and then.
So there's your dose of dour, Flames blogger cynicism folks. I accept and welcome all the inevitable "stick in the mud" comments.
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