Monday, April 30, 2007

Let's Start Shopping - Edited (added Selanne to UFA list)

I've been going through the various UFA's over the last few days, just trying to get a sense of what may be available for the Flames come July 1.

Here's an untidy list of the centers who are scheduled to become unrestricted this summer:

Centers: Potential Salary
Daniel Briere: 6M
Chris Drury: 5.5M
Scott Gomez: 4.5M
Peter Forsberg: 3.0M
Robert Lang: 2.5M
Radek Bonk: 2.5M
Petr Sykora: 2.5M
Viktor Kozlov: 2.0M
Tyler Arnason: 2.0M
Michal Handzus: 2.0M
Mike Comrie: 2.0M
Jozef Stumpel: 1.7M
Pierre Turgeon: 1.5M
Brett McLean: 1.5M
Todd White: 1.5M
Wes Walz: 1.5M
Bryan Smolinski: 1.5M
Michael Peca: 1.5M
Jeff O'Neill: 1.5M
Nik Antropov: 1.5M
Yanic Perrault: 1.5M
Mike York: 1.5M
Eric Belanger: 1.5M
Waye Primeau: 1.0M
Ian Laperriere: 1.0M
Eric Lindrom: 1.0M
Stu Barnes: 1.0M
Patrik Stefan: 1.0M
Mike Ricci: 1.0M
Jeremy Roenick: 1.0M
Josef Vasicek: 1.0M
Glen Metropolit: 0.9
Trevor Linden: 0.75
Jeff Hamilton: 0.75
Adam Mair: 0.75
Toby Peterson: 0.75
Mark Smith: 0.7
Michael Holmqvist: 0.7
Boyd Devereaux: 0.7
Randy Robitaille: 0.6
Wyatt Smyth: 0.5
Jason Morgan: 0.5
Tommi Santala: 0.5
Carl Corazinni: 0.5
Scott Nichol: 0.5
Jerred Smithson: 0.5
Mike Glumac: 0.5
Michael Ryan: 0.5
Travis Green: 0.5
Erik Rasmussen: 0.5
Eric Boguinecki: 0.5
Andreas Karlsson: 0.5
Eric Perrin: 0.5
Peter Nedved: 0.5
Byron Ritchie: 0.45
Brad Moran: 0.45
Mark Hartigan: 0.45
Marty Murray: 0.45
Craig MacDonald: 0.45
Matt Hussey: 0.45
Trent Whitefield: 0.45
Jeremy Reich: 0.45
Serge Payer: 0.45
Jim Dowd: 0.45
Jason Wiemer: 0.45
Mark Cullen: 0.45

The "potential salary" is basically just my stab in the dark at what the player will be commanding in the open market (Millions/per year). Depending on who/what GM's start ravenously chasing in the off-seaon, the number listed may be right on or wildly inaccurate. I made an educated guessed based on the players age, past production and current salary.

There are some decent big names in the list, including Drury, Briere and Gomez. The 2nd tier includes guys like Handzus, Stumpel, Arnason, Viktor Kozlov and Comrie. There aren't a lot of "diamond in the rough" types to my eye: perhaps Todd White could be a decently priced addition to many team's bottom 6 forwards...

Of course, any talk about centers is basically moot from a Flames perspective. Calgary is virtually awash in middlemen, with Langkow, Lombo, Conroy and Yelle already taking up spots and Boyd and Taratukhin pushing up from the minors. Meaning should you see Sutter attract a pivot in the off-season, expect a deal to ship out of one the existing guys to follow soon after.

Anyways, here's a list of players at right wing, which is currently an organizational weakness:

RWs: Potential Salary
Teemu Selanne: 5.5M
Dainius Zubrus: 4.0M
Bill Guerin: 3.5M
Todd Bertuzzi: 3.0M
Scott Hartnell: 2.5M
Mike Johnson: 1.5M
Mark Recchi: 1.5M
Scott Walker: 1.5M
Tony Amonte: 1.0M
Owen Nolan: 1.0M
Peter Bondra: 1.0M
Anson Carter: 1.0M
Arron Asham: 0.9
Nils Ekman: 0.9
Radek Dvorak: 0.8
Matthew Barnaby: 0.7
Grant Marshall: 0.7
Jed Ortmeyer: 0.7
Jason Ward: 0.7
Mark Rycroft: 0.6
Scott Parker: 0.6
Tom Kostopoulos: 0.6
Petr Tenkrat: 0.6
Niko Dimitrakos: 0.6
JP Vigier: 0.6
Darren McCarty: 0.5
Ben Guite: 0.5
Lee Goren: 0.5
Shawn Thornton: 0.5
Reed Low: 0.5
Josh Langfeld: 0.5
Brad Tapper: 0.5
Eric Meloche: 0.5
Denis Hamel: 0.5
Ronal Petrovicky: 0.5
Rob DiMaio: 0.5
Pat Leahy: 0.45
Jeff Hoggan: 0.45
Aaron Downey: 0.45
Alexander Mogilny: 0.45

There isn't a lot here, to be frank. Zubrus, Guerin, Hartnell and Bertuzzi are probably the best of the bunch. As a Flames fan, I'd love to see Zubrus playing on the 2nd line with Langkow and Huselius, but chances are he'll get priced out of the Flames range by the market. Hartnell might be the best bet here - he's a competent enough 2-way player and he shouldn't be ridiculously expensive.

Finally, I've compiled a list of UFA defencemen as well:

Defence: Potential Salary
Kimmo Timonen: 5.5M
Brad Stuart: 5.0M
Sheldon Souray: 5.0M
Brian Rafalski: 5.0M
Roman Hamrlik: 4M
Scott Hannan: 4M
Andrei Markov: 4M
Danny Markov: 3.5M
Tom Preissing: 3.5M
Craig Rivet: 3.0M
Mathieu Schneider: 3.0M
Darryl Sydor: 2.0M
Aaron Miller: 2.0M
Andy Sutton: 2.0M
Cory Sarich: 2.0M
Greg De Vries: 1.8M
Brent Sopel: 1.5M
Sean O'Donnell: 1.5M
Jaroslav Modry: 1.5M
Bryan Berard: 1.5M
Teppo Numminen: 1.5M
Brad Lukowich: 1.5M
Tom Poti: 1.5M
Patrice Brisebois: 1.0M
Ossi Vaananen: 1.0M
Daniel Tjarnqvist: 1.0M
Martin Skoula: 1.0M
Vitaly Vishnevski: 1.0M
Glen Wesley: 1.0M
Nolan Pratt: 1.0M
Bryan Muir: 1.0M
Jan Hejda: 0.9
Chris Chelios: 0.9
Janne Niinimaa: 0.9
Josef Melichar: 0.9
David Tanabe: 0.9
Ric Jackman: 0.8
Ken Klee: 0.7
Jon Klemm: 0.7
Jamie Heward: 0.7
Anders Eriksson: 0.7
Jiri Fischer: 0.7
Greg Zanon: 0.7
Thomas Pock: 0.7
Shane Hnidy: 0.7
Jamie Rivers: 0.6
Sean Hill: 0.6
Rob Scuderi: 0.6
Alain Nasreddine: 0.6
Lwarence Nycholat: 0.5
Brad Ference: 0.5
Yannick Tremblay: 0.5
Joe DiPenta: 0.5
Kent Huskins: 0.5
Mike Weaver: 0.5
David Koci: 0.5
Derrick Walser: 0.5
Brad Norton: 0.5
Sheldon Brookbank: 0.5
Tomas Mojzis: 0.5
Jason York: 0.5
Bobby Allen: 0.5
Nathan Dempsey: 0.5
Alex Brooks: 0.5
Jim Fahey: 0.5
Dan McGillis: 0.5
Joel Bouchard: 0.5
Jason Strudwick: 0.5
Martin Grenier: 0.5
Eric Cairns: 0.5
Joel Kwiatkowski: 0.5
Luke Richardson: 0.5
Ian Moran: 0.45
David Printz: 0.45
Micki Dupont: 0.45

There are over 70 defencemen set to test the UFA waters in the summer, but only a few of them are of the "elite" quality. Kimmo Timonen is probably the best of the bunch. He can competently play against the big guns and he puts up points. Brian Rafalski will also command a decent pay day, as will Hannan and the Markovs (Danny and Andrei). Some sucker will probably pony up 5 mill for Sheldon Souray's -20 something, thanks to his gawdy PP numbers. And, of course, Brad Stuart will be highly sought after thanks to his size, age and pedigree.

There are more "middle of the road" options in the blueliner pool as compared to the RWers though. Sutton, Sarich, Schneider, Rivet, Miller, Sydor, Sopel and Skoula represent "better than bad" options, depending on organizational needs. Sutton is interesting, if only because he's a monster of a man (6'6", 245 pounds). by the end of the year, he wasn't facing top competition, though. The Zhitnik/Havelid duo was matched against the Jagr line in the play-offs, meaning Sutton might just be an expensive but bruising bottom pairing guy.

The Flames are going to need to re-sign Stuart or find a complimentary player for Robyn Regehr amongst those listed. Of course, I'd like to see Timonen in that role (mobile, good puck mover, can play big minutes) but, of course, so would every other GM for every other team. He'll likely be too pricey. The Flames may need to plug a hole beside Phaneuf if Hammer doesn't re-sign as well. Would a Sydor, Rivet, Sarich get the job done there? Danny Markov might look nice next to the Dion, though he might be too expensive as well.

Keep an eye on Greg Zanon. He was averaging close to 20 minutes/night by the end of the year for Nashville and playing pretty competently, albeit on the 3rd pairing. He's only 27 and might just be a decent find for teams trying to cheaply plug some holes on their back-end with guys who can quietly get the job done.

Anyways, that's the extent of my explorations so far. I think I'll put up the LW list tomorrow, just to "complete the picture" so to speak. If anyone has a wish list, suggestions or wants to share any other sort of speculation, feel free to leave something in the comments.