With the long awaited onset of the regular season nearly upon us, I figured I'd work on an alaysis of Calgary's first regular season foe - the Minnesota Wild. Let's go by position, shall we?
Center:
Brian Rolston, Todd White, Wes Walz, Pierre-Marc Bouchard, Miko Koivu, Marc Chouinard.
A pretty mixed bag here. Chouinard and Koivu are big bodies (6' 5" and 6' 2", respectively), however, neither can be considered offensive threats at this point in their careers. Chouinard is strong, good on face-offs and a capable checker, but has failed to put up significant offensive stats thus far (21 points last year). Miko, the little (bigger) brother of Saku Koivu, is one of Minnesota's top prospects, but is considered by scouts to have less offensive flair than his older brother, and is projected to be a third line center at the NHL level. He did apparently have playing time with Gaborik during the pre-season, but is currently injured (as is Gaborik, strangely).
On the other side of the equation is Pierre-Marc Bouchard and Wes Walz - both smaller centers with speed and play-making abilities. Bouchard is still only 21 and weighs a mere 160 pounds, which may explain his paltry 22 points last year. However, most hockey pundits and scouts agree that Bouchard can become a play-making force through proper maturation. On the other hand, 35 year-old Wes Walz experienced something of a rebirth with the Wild back in 2001, scoring 18 goals and 30 points in 82 games. Last year, hobbled by shoulder and abodminal injuries, he managed 25 points in 57 games. This could be the year Walz breaks the 40 point barrier if given top line minutes...however given the presence of Todd White, Brian Rolston and Pierre-Marc Bouchard, that is highly unlikely. With the emergence of Miko Koivu as a viable prospect, it is more probable that 2005-2006 will be the beginning of Walz' slide back into obscurity, especially considering his advancing age.
Minnesota has capable top-two centers in Todd White and Brian Rolston...both recent acquistions. White was acquired from Ottawa for a 4th round pick and has averaged 18 goals per season over the last 3 seasons. Skewing this stat is White's most recent season with the Senators, where he managed only 9 goals in 53 games playing 3rd and 4th line minutes. In the season previous, White scored a career high 25 goals and 60 points. Skating on one of the top two lines and barring injury, the fleet footed White should come closer to these numbers this season. Brian Rolston, stolen as an UFA from the Bruins, is even more of an offensive threat and will probably see a lot of ice time beside Marion Gaborik. Over the last 3 seasons with Boston, Rolston averaged over 25 goals a year - his best season coming in 01/02 where he potted 31. With top-line minutes and feeding off of the talent of Gaborik, I would expect Rolston to have a career year - depending on how Lemaire uses him and what new system he employs for the "new" NHL of course.
Overall, Minnesota is relatively strong at center. Rolston and White are fast, can score, and are responsible defensively. If/when Bouchard and Koivu develop into solid NHLers, the Wild could have a decent attack down the middle. It remains to be seen if that will happen THIS year however.
Wing -
Marion Gaborik, Alexandre Daigle, Pascal Dupuis, Brent Burns, Stephane Veilleux, Matt Foy, Kyle Wanvig, Derek Boogaard (6' 7"!), Andrei Nazarov
After Gaborik, the Wild are rather weak on the wings. Lost to the Avalanche was Andrew Brunette, who lead the team in assists (34) and PP goals (7) last season. Therefore, one can expect Gaborik to play with Rolston on the first line...and...Daigle? While Alexandre the Flop lead the team in goals (20) and points (54) last year, that is more an indication of the Wild's offensive woes than of Daigle's prowess around the net. In addition, Daigle is a right-wing and benefitted from the Gaborik contract disupte. Expect him to move down to 2nd or 3rd line duty and his numbers to fall this year. Pascal Dupuis is a greater possibility to play left wing on the first line - and while he is a fine prospect and expected to make an impact at in the NHL eventually, his offensive stats thus far are hardly worthy of what is typical of a 1st line player. However, Dupuis should be entering his prime at 26 and no doubt the Wild will be banking on a break-out season this year. Whether he will or not remains to be seen.
After that, the Wild have an assortment of grinders and 4th line fillers. Boogaard and Nazarov are huge - but have little or no offensive upside and may be left behind by the speed of the new NHL. Burns, Veilleux, Wanvig and Foy range from 20 - 24 years of age and are relatively untested commodities. None, however, are expected to be big-time NHL threats.
Overall, the Wild are thin on the wings (and, as a consequence, at forward in general). Without Gaborik in the line-up this Wednesday, they have almost no one who is considered a significant NHL offensive weapon.
Defense -
Willie Mitchell, Filip Kuba, Andrei Zyuzin, Scott Ferguson, Daniel Tjarnqvist, Alex Henry, Nick Shultz
A solid if unspectacular group. Shultz, Zyuzin, Mitchell and Kuba are a capable top 4 - all with decent size and mobility - though Minnesota seems to be lacking a clear-cut #1 d-man. Tjarnqvist (previously of the Atlanta Thrashers) is a stay-at-home type who makes the safe pass and gets a few points. Henry is a big body (6' 5") who can hit...but who also may be left in the wake of faster players. Ferguson is a 32 year-old vet who graced the Edmonton blue-line for a number of years. He is, and always has been, rather ordinary. Kuba lead the Wild "D" with 24 points last season *Yawn*.
Overall decent, but hardly awe-inspiring. The Wild need one or two of their top 4 to step-up and become premier NHL defensemen.
Goalies -
Manny Fernandez, Dwayne Roloson
Strongest position on the team. Minnesota plays a tandem-goal type system, where neither tender is considered the "#1". Roloson posted career numbers in 2003-2004, with a 1.88 GAA and a .933 save percentage in 48 games, while Fernandez was a respectable 2.49 GAA with a .915 Save percentage in 37 games. This may be the year that Roloson firmly establishes himself as the Wild's starter, although at the age of 35, it also may be the beginning of his decline.
The Low-Down -
The Minnesota Wild represent a threat to Calgary through their excellent goaltending and team-concept defense. That said, their forward depth seems almost laughable. However, Jacques Lemaire remains one of the best minds in hockey, and any team coached by him is hardly ever an "easy win". Overall, though, the Flames seem to have vastly superior forward depth coupled with a top-end defense corps and strong goaltending. With the Wild lacking Gaborik and Koivu this Wednesday due to injury, the season-opener for Calgary is a big-time "should-win" game - particularly in light of the importance of intra-divisional victories thanks to the new, unbalanced schedule. Here's hoping the Flames make the best of their apparent advantages and start the season on a high note...
