It's rebuilding time in the land of the Canuckleheads this year. Gone are ex-core pieces Bertuzzi and Jovocop while in comes new franchise man Roberto Luongo. The question(s) facing Vancouver this year are:
- Can Luongo finally prove he can take a team into the post-season?
- Is there enough forward depth behind Naslund and the Sedins?
- Will the Canucks thin d-ranks hold up?
2005/2006 Stuff -
92 points, 9th in the West
252 Goals For
251 Goals Against
18.2% PP (11th)
81.8% PK (17th)
Top Scorers -
Marcus Naslund (79 points)
Anson Carter (33 goals, 15 PPG)
Henrik Sedin (57 assists)
Forwards:
Subtractions - Bertuzzi, Carter, Park, Ruutu.
Additions - Bulis, Chouinard, Pyatt.
The loss of Bertuzzi and Carter represent a deletion of 127 points, 58 of which were goals. Carter, riding shot-gun on the brother line, lead the Canucks with 33 tallies last season. Park and Ruutu accounted for 17 and 18 points respectively, a negligible sum which should be replaced by the likes of Pyatt and Chouinard.
Jan Bulis is not a likely candidate to replace high-end production. He's a 28 year old guy that has never topped 20 goals or 40 points in 9 NHL seasons. At best, The Canucks have a 40 point player who can fill out a 2nd line role if need be.
It looks like Vancouver will be banking on a return to form from Naslund and increased production from the Sedin twins to fill the hole. The former had a relatively poor season last year: his 32 goals were the fewest he's had since 1999/2000. The Sedins, on the other hand, enjoyed career seasons, both breaking the 70 point barrier. Indications from training camp are that the trio of Naslund-Sedin-Sedin will form the #1 scoring unit - probably in an attempt to re-ignite Naslund (and probably in response to the fact that the Sedins+Carter ended up being the de facto top line last season). If all three can bank 80-90 point seasons, the offensive impact of Carter's and Bert's departures should be effectively mitigated.
After the top 4 or so forwards (Sedin-Sedin-Naslund-Morrison), the talent pool thins considerably. Bulis and Cooke may each be pushed into a top 6 role, even though the latter has never scored more than 15 goals in 7 seasons with the Canucks. The bottom end looks to be composed of Chouinard, Kesler, Pyatt, Linden, Burrows, Reid and Shultz. Kesler, he of the offer-sheet controversy, is a first rounder coming off of a 23 point season. He has potential to be an effective 20 goal, two-way forward, although it's debatable whether he'll make that kind of leap this year. A modest jump in production, say to 35 points, is probably more reasonable. Chouinard is a big, 29 year old centerman whose 14 goals and 30 points represented a career season last year. Unless he's a late bloomer, the Canucks can only hope for the same from him again in 06/07. Taylor Pyatt is often injured and never seems to fulfill his potential. He gathered all of 12 points in an injured-shortened season with the Sabres previously and Im guessing he'll do the same this year - he's never played more than 80 games in his career and never scored more than 28 points. Basically big-body, checking-line fodder. As for the rest, Linden has slowed WAY down and probably should have retired. Burrows, Reid and Shultz are minor league guys who probably won't have much of an impact either way.
The Skinny: The Canucks are top heavy and thin depth wise. A step back by the Sedins or a major injury to anyone on the first line would put a massive dent in their production.
Defense:
Subtractions: Jovanovski, Allen, Baumgartner, Carney, Brown, Weinrich
Additions: Bourdon, Krajicek, Fitzpatrick, Tremblay, Mitchell
A highly suspect group after Ohlund, Salo and Mitchell. In terms of production, gone are Jovo's 0.75 PPG, as well Baumer and Allen's combined 51 points (12 goals). Baumgartner looks to be a surprisingly significant loss, considering his 34 points and +11 rating. On the other hand, Allen averaged more than 20 minutes per game and was probably the 3rd best defensive d-man on the squad last year behind Ohlund and Salo. Jovo played a lot as well - about 24 minutes a game - although his ability to contribute in his own end is highly suspect.
Combined, the Canucks lost about 84 points and approximately 61 minutes (!) worth of d-man flesh this offseason. That is a very significant blow, especially considering their top 2 guys (Salo and Ohlund) already play about 25 minutes per game and therefore can't be expected to absorb much more. Mitchell should help, he averaged around 20 per contest last year and he's been a plus(+) player for the last 3 seasons. No doubt he'll be be expected to bump that average closer to 25 minutes.
The bottom 3 will consist of Krajicek, Bourdon and Fitzpatrick. Krajicek played 67 games last year, the most in his career, and scored 16 points while averaging 18 minutes of ice. Bourdon is a celebrated prospect, though Canuck fans shouldn't expect a Phaneuf-like contribution from Luc this year - Not only is Dion an extremely rare case, he was also relatively sheltered thanks to the Flames defensive depth. The heavy lifting will be done by the likes of Ohlund and Mitchell this year and Bourdon will probably hover around 15-18 minutes per game. Finally, Fitzpatrick managed 16 minutes/game average in 56 contests for Buffalo in 05/06 and still managed to be an abysmal -18. Rory is a 31 year old career bubble guy who's never played more than 60 games in a season (in fact, his average is 23). If he gets any kind of significant ice-time this year without a top quality partner, he'll get eaten alive.
The last option for Vancouver is Yannick Tremblay. He hasn't played in the NHL since 03/04 when he put up 10 points in 38 contests for the Thrashers. That year, he played a respectable 21 minutes per night, though it would be folly to expect him to manage those kind of minutes against quality opposition this coming season. Considering he hasn't faced NHL caliber players for a couple of years, Tremblay will be in the press-box most nights no doubt.
Carney, Brown and Weinrich were late season rentals. Their impact was nominal, although Im sure some Canuck fans would have liked to see Carney stick around considering their *ahem* "depth" chart.
The Skinny:
Basically, the Canucks added 25 minutes (maybe) of quality defensive ice-time in Mitchell to assuage the near 61 minutes lost in Jovo, Allen and Baumgartner (37 if you consider Jovo a liability in his own end). The highly suspect bottom 4 of Bourdon, Krajicek, Fitzpatrick and Tremblay will only be servicable if they are highly sheltered. It looks like Kajicek will be expected to absorb some tough PK time (in light of Vancouver's other options) which may or may not prove overwhelming for the sophomore. An injury to the likes of Ohlund or Mitchell spells doom for this club.
EDIT - I suppose Kevin Bieksa is in the mix here as well. Not sure how he slipped my mind...
Bieksa played 39 contests for the Canucks last year and managed 6 points with an average of 16 minutes of ice. In short, he's fairly redundant and won't make a big difference over, say, Fitzpatrick.
Goaltending:
Luongo is a world-class talent who's used to being shelled game in and game out. The question remains, however, whether he can take his team to the next level and make the play-offs. Roberto has never seen the post-season, largely due to the lousy teams he's been stuck behind his whole career. Unfortunately for Luongo the squad in front of him this year doesn't look that much better than any he's been part of previously.
The Skinny: Luongo will have to exceed his previous season's stats (2.97 GAA, .914 %) if the Canucks are to have any hope whatsoever. Keep in mind he'll be meeting the likes of Gaborik, Demitra, Iginla, Tanguay, Sakic, Svatos, and Edmonton's half dozen 25 goal scorers 8 times (each) this year. Uh-oh.
Conclusion:
A lot of things will have to go right for the Canucks to make the play-offs come spring. While Nonis removed the distraction of Bertuzzi from the dressing room and added a top 'tender, he now has limited depth at all positions and almost 0 cap room to work with should he need to add pieces during the season. In addition, Vancouver will have the added burden of adjusting to high player turn-over while learning whatever new system is implemented by Vigneault. Definitely going to be a tough go.
Prediction:
Luongo can win some games on his own and the Sedins continue to improve, but it's not enough. 9th in the converence, 4th in the division.
