Tuesday, October 02, 2007

Season Preview

I wrote extensive previews for each NW Division team last year, something I'm disinclined to repeat this season. Instead, I've decided to instead produce a "quick and dirty" version. Enjoy.

Colorado Avalanche:

Ryan Smyth joins the highest scoring team in the Division. Another year of maturing youngsters Statsny and Wolski adds to the weaponry. Milan Hejduk has settled comfortably into 30-30-60 type territory and Sakic is an ageless, point producing wonder. Brunette will likely stick in the top 6 after his career season last year while Arnason and Svatos give the Avs a couple more options on the 3rd line.

On the back-end, Colorado has a decent top 4 consisting of newly acquired Scott Hannan, a healthy Jordan Leopold, well-kept secret Brett Clark (who saw some of the toughest minutes last year and did well despite playing in front of mediocre goaltending) and Karlis Skrastins. JM Liles needs to be sheltered, but brings some capable offense from the point on the PP a la Tom Preissing. Expect him and probably Clark and Leopold (assuming the latter actually plays) to have career years.

The primary question mark in Colorado is between the pipes. Theodore is still a shadow of his former self and will be a $5M back-up again this season. Budaj was more than capable during the Avs 4 week run to end the season, but he'll have to prove he can do it over the long haul this year.

The Avs are going to score a lot this season and their defence has been firmed up. If the goalie situation works out, expect them to challenge for the NW crown.

Vancouver Canucks:

The Canucks are the new Flames: Vezina candidate in net, deep blue line, terrible forward depth. The Sedin twins are the real deal and Naslund can still pot a few (although his days of being an elite winger are clearly over). After that...? Pyatt is a capable enough compliment to the Twins on the top line, but, then again, almost anyone tends to score in that role (see Anson Carter). Morrison continues his slide into obscurity and there's hardly two goals to rub together beyond the 2nd line.

The defense corps. is fairly impressive with Ohlund, Salo, Mitchell and Beiksa heading up the group. Some offense, lots of defense there. Krajicek and aging vet Aaron Miller round out the top 6.

Of course, the true stars are Roberto Luongo and the defensive minded system implemented by Alain Vigneault. Bobby-Lou+trap=wins as the team discovered last season. If he remains in top form and healthy, Vancouver will probably win their share of 1 goal games again this season.

The Canucks will be in the mix for the division lead all season - assuming the Sedins and Luongo stay healthy. Any sort of long-term injury to one of those 3 players sinks this team.

Minnesota Wild:

Lots of question marks for this squad. Will the Slovaks stay healthy? Will Backstrom repeat his performance from last year? Can someone step up to be the #1 center?

The Wild's forwards are decent when they're all in the line-up. Gaborik is an elite difference maker, especially with Demitra on his line. Brian Rolston has been a 30 goal guy since coming to Minny and Mikko Koivu is slowly but surely developing into a capable top-6 forward. PM Bouchard and Mark Parrish also add something to the scoresheet here and there.

Minnesota's back-end is fairly average, however. Kim Johnsson hasn't been the same since his injury woes in Philadelphia. Shultz, Carney and Skoula are all okay, if unspectacular, 4-6 type guys. Kurtis Foster has a howitzer from the point and Peterri Nummelin is a crafty puck mover, but neither are defensive stalwarts at ES. I have no idea what Sean Hill is doing on this team and Brent Burns is a converted winger. Minny seems to have a lot of the same thing and not enough prime shut-down guys that can be matched up against other team's big guns. Course, the stultifying Lemaire game-plan does seem to help in that regard.

Niklas Backstrom came out of nowhere and usurped Manny Fernandez last season. He put up some very impressive numbers (that tends to happen in Minnesota) and is now the undisputed starter for the Wild. Josh Harding will be backing up Backstrom and he looks like the real deal as well. Backstrom is a bit of a gamble, considering his limited experience in the NHL, but there's no reason to think his play will fall off to any great degree.

Overall, expect the Wild to be in the mix for a play-off spot. Where they end up at the end of the season will likely be mediated by the number of games Gabber manages to play.

Edmonton Oilers:

The Oil scored more goals than absolutely nobody last year. While I don't expect them to be the worst in the league by this measure again this year (hello Phoenix), I can't see them rocketing up the GF chart either. The stolen sophomore Dustin Penner joins Hemsky and, uh...Stoll and Horcoff on the front lines. Rookies Cogliano and Sam Gagner will also likely be expected to step-up and pop a few. Robert Nilsson may also get a turn in the top 6 and on the PP. After that, Edmonton has some character players (Moreau, Reasoner, Sanderson) and role players (Stortini) and little else. Two-way winger Fernando Pisani is out indefinitely with ulceritive colitis, further depleting the Oilers forward depth.

On the back-end, Edmonton added re-tread Dick Tarnstrom as well as puck-mover Jani Pitkanen and the immobile cannon of Sheldon Souray. The result will likely be an improved PP but chaos at ES. Veteran Steve Staios looks to be the de facto "shut-down" defender and Matt Greene will try to prove he can actually develop into the Smith replacement everyone up North is HOPING he can become. Not a lot of "defense" in this defense corps. it seems.

Dwayne Roloson has proven to be a decent #1 tender since being traded to the Greasers. unfortunately, he's on the other side of 35 and will likely be facing a lot of rubber again this season. One of Lowe's few good moves this off-season was the acquisition of Mathieu Garon, who should be able to play a good 15-25 games and take the pressure off the aging spaz should he begin to tire.

Prognosis: negative. The Oilers have too many youngsters and too few capable difference makers in a tough division. On the road, the Oil will likely be victimized by their lack of quality shut-down fowards and defenders. Roloson is a decent goalie, but is a few steps behind the likes of Luongo and Kipper (and perhaps Backstrom as well). Not quite Columbus or Chicago bad, but will most likely be watching the post-season from the sidelines again.

Calgary Flames:

????

Hard to pick a clear cut favorite again this season. Almost every team has obvious strengths as well as a few glaring question marks. Four out of five could contend for the division title, depending on injuries and other factors.