Friday, December 21, 2007

Buy Low (Ryder)

As much as everything is rosy in Flames land right now, it's hard to shake the notion that the team is still in dire need of secondary scoring. Calgary was woefully top heavy even before the creation of the new, unstoppable #1 unit Iginla, Langkow and Huselius. And since the pucks are bound to start bouncing the wrong way for the big boys at some point, the Flames will need some production out of one of these other combinations:

Tanguay - Conroy - Nolan
Nystrom - Lombardi - Yelle
Smith - Primeau - Godard
(Moss, Nilson, Boyd)

Not the most promising of propositions. Only 3 of those players have scored more than 40 points in a season recently and one of them is Owen "severe downslope" Nolan. Keep in mind, 40 points doesn't exactly scream "offensive dynamo". It's little wonder that the Flames 2nd PP unit, usually featuring the offensive wizardry of Conroy, Nolan, Regehr and Eriksson, has managed just 1 goal all year.

I don't think there's an internal solution to this dilemma. The Flames have no prospects tearing up the AHL and the current guys have proven they can't get the job done in that 2nd RWer position.

External solution? Hellllooo Micheal Ryder. Ryder has struggled a ton this year and has been a healthy scratch more than once. After scoring 30+ goals in back-to-back seasons, he has just 3 goals in 31 games so far. He's also a pending UFA and I doubt he'll be eager to re-sign in Montreal now that he's a permanant resident of the coaching staff's dog-house. I'd be surprised if the Montreal isn't shopping him already.

While Ryder's strengths seem to fit with the Flames needs (excellent shooter and goal scorer, good PP production), his game contains some definite weaknesses as well - he tends to get beat up at ES, even against softer opponents, and isn't the best skater in the world. That said, if used appropriately (sheltered with decent PP time ), Ryder would probably be an improvement over the crop of RWers were have now.

Other reasons to pursue Ryder: his stock is at all time low**, meaning he won't cost as much, his cap-hit for the remainder of the season would be a relatively small 1.62M and, since he's UFA in the summer, the Flames can walk away if he doesn't work out. Fairly low risk acquisition, depending on what the Habs demand in return.

**Ryder's shooting percentage this season is a bottom-barrel 3.8%, while his career average before this year was around 13%. And it's not like he was playing with Joe Thornton previously. Either he's hurt or this is some kind of freak run that will correct itself eventually. Of course, Ryder is close to useless when he isn't scoring goals, which renders Carbonneau's decision to sit him sensible. Would a change of scenery help Ryder to turn things around a la Brad Boyes or Kristian Huselius? It sure wouldn't hurt him to play with someone like Tanguay at ES and on the PP...

I guess the question remains...what would the Flames be able to offer in return? Prospects? Picks? MARCUS NILSON? Anyone who says "Alex Tanguay" should immediately move to the back of the bus (though the Montreal fans and media would no doubt love to get him).

Anyways, just some Holiday musings. Sutter never does anything that's expected, so I'd only give this one an "E1" rating. Let me know if you think I'm completely bonkers.