A little while ago, Frequent Commenter Ngthagg and I had a back and forth regarding Adrian Aucoin. Here's his comment, which is the jumping off point for this discussion:
I think Aucoin may have a bit more value than some people think. Look at his numbers:
10g/25p
+13
20:57/game
37PIM
I don't know if that's worth $4M, but it's worth more than bugger all. Those are the numbers of a reliable offensive dman. And it's hard to say if he'll take a step back next year, since this year was such a drastic improvement over his time in Chicago.
Quite sensible. Aucoin's counting numbers are certainly nothing to sneeze at and were actually some of the better ones on the Flames back-end. The more I've thought about it, though, the more Im convinced that Adrian will indeed take a step back next year.
Firstly, keep in mind Aucoin played against nobodies all year and spent over four minutes on the PP with Phaneuf/Iginla/Huselius/Langkow. Almost anyone playing beside Phaneuf sees an increase in their PP efficacy - just ask Andrew Ference. "Friendly surroundings" and all that. And speaking in general terms, I've found that players that excel only in the cuddliest of circumstances tend to fall back eventually (because circumstances can't always be cuddly). For evidence see: Tom Preissing.
Secondly, Aucoin's favorable results from this past season represent a bunch of near-career-bests, suggesting a regression back to the norm is in order next year. The 76 games he played was the most he's managed since 03-04, His 35 point total was the 2nd best of his career and the 8.3 shooting percentage was his highest since that 23 goal season in Vancouver all the way back in '98. His career averages for the various categories are:
GP - 59
goals - 7
points - 23
SH% - 5.5
Chances are, Aucoin falls back towards the mean in one, if not all, of these areas next year. Especially since he's a 34 year-old veteran of 13+ seasons.
Even considering the role of chance and easy minutes detailed above, like me, you may still be a little surprised by Aucoin's numbers, especially if you watched him lumber around all year. There were many times that Aucoin looked like a fairly terrible defender, particularly if he was caught on the ice with anyone of moderate skill. His +13 doesn't seem to jive with my qualitative perceptions of his abilities.
Which is why I wasn't surprised when I stumbled across Aucoin's name in this "horseshoes list" compiled by Jeff over at Sisu Hockey. What it shows is the players that seemed to benefit from complimentary difference in for/against team SH% while they were on the ice. As you can see, the Flames had a SH% of 10.6 versus a 6.4 SH% for the opponents while Aucoin was playing - a difference of 4.2%. I suppose it's possible he was driving these kinds of results, but, after watching him all year, I really don't think so. As Jeff notes:
I also removed the players who are obvious drivers of big % differences (Crosby, Malkin, Lidstrom, Getzlaf, Iginla etc). No point in including them - I'm looking for the guys who are due for a fall, guys you might want to avoid trading for.
Or, in the Flames case, avoid keeping on the roster when cap-space is a precious commodity. The more I look at Aucoin this off-season, the more I think trading him is the prudent move. All arrows point to a big step backwards next year; if Adrian's 4M cap-hit is poor value when all the coins land on heads, he's going to look like a hideous boat anchor when the numbers start averaging out (just ask Chicago). Deal him now when his stats still look good and use the cap-space on a top 6 forward.
