With the 07-08 season in the rear-view mirror it's probably time to start investigating the Flames present and near future. As we've already established, Sutter has some significant challenges in store for him this summer, especially if the goal is to take a step forward rather than tread water (or fall back).
The Forwards
For the sake of this discussion, Im going to assume the rumored Langkow and Giordano contracts are true.
Firstly, here's what the clubs forwards depth chart currently looks like (cap hit in parentheses).
Tanguay (5.25)-Langkow (5?)-Iginla (7)
?-Lombardi (1.817)-?
Nilson (1)-Boyd (.543)-Moss (.550)
?-Primeau (1.4)-?
(Prust, Van Der Gulik ?)
Total: 22.56M
UFAs (projected salary/year):
Huselius (4.5)
Conroy (1)
Nolan (1.5)
Yelle (.700)
Mark Smith (.550)
Eric Godard (.550)
Eric Nystrom (.700)
Stevenson (.700)
We can guess almost immediately that Eric Godard and Eric Nystrom will be re-signed. I personally don't have much use for either of them, but the coach and management seemed to like both guys last year. I think we can also guess that Huselius and Smith will walk this summer, Juice because the grass really is greener elsewhere and Smith because he's pretty much useless.
That leaves Conroy, Nolan and Yelle. Some tough decisions. While Nolan and Conroy weren't very adept in the offensive zone last year, they both proved they can still contribute to some degree, even against tough competition. Re-signing one or both of them will depend largely on their salary demands and how much Sutter is willing to invest in players that aren't a 2nd line LWer (the teams most glaring weakness with the ouster of Huselius). An additional variable may be the Primeau contract: if Sutter can somehow rid the club of that burden, he may be able to get both Conroy and Nolan back for another year.
As for Yelle, I fear his time as a Flame has come to a close. He's no longer an elite PKer and his offensive game has spiraled into total non-existence. While I dont think he should be put out to pasture just yet, he looks like the most expendable of the three players mentioned to me.
Tanguay-Langkow-Iginla
(free agent)-Lombardi-Moss
Nilson-Conroy-Nolan
Nystrom-Boyd-Godard
(Van Der Gulik?)
New total: 24.91M
Potential UFA LW:
Naslund
Fedotenko
Gelinas
Stillman
Nagy
Shanahan
Malone
Hagman
Pandolfo
Ugh. Boy oh boy it's a thin crop. Guys like Hagman and Malone who had career seasons this year are going to be overpaid this summer. Naslund will probably be too expensive and is unlikely to sign here anyways. Gelinas and Shanahan are getting to old for top 6 ice-time. And Nagy is the cock-tease type who is too injured and too lacking in passion to deliver on the promise suggested by his talent level.
The top candidates from where I sit are Fedotenko, Stillman and Pandolfo. Of the three, only Stillman has what many would consider "top 6" type offense and will likely be the most expensive. He isn't much of checker, but can produce on the PP.
Fedotenko is a 15-20-35 guy who is speedy and can play against a decent level of competition without being overwhelmed. Flames fans "saw him good" during the 03-04 finals.
Jay Pandolfo is ideally a shut-down forward. He has the most modest offensive totals out of the three, but he also tends to play against the toughest competition. Pandolfo actually had a pretty decent ESP/60 rate last season over 54 games (1.99/60) relative to his teammates (and Stillman and Fedotenko, actually), which is encouraging considering who he was playing with and against every night. He was also tied for the best ES +/- rating (+9) amongst NJD forwards.
Last year, Stillman made 1.750M (cap-wise), Fedotenko made 2.90M (!) and Pandolfo made 0.836M. Feds is the youngest at 28 while Pandolfo and Stillman are 32 and 33 respectively.
Looking at the numbers now, I'd be really surprised if NJ allowed Pandolfo to walk. He's incredibly good value, even if he deson't put up great counting numbers. Assuming he's available though, that's the guy I'd like to see Sutter target. He'll be cheap, he can play against anybody and he was a plus player on a club that wasn't very good at scoring at ES last year. Unfortunately, he's unlikely to add much in the way of PP scoring.
Assuming a contract of about 1.5M, adding Pandolfo and a 700k 13th forward (Prust, Van Der Gulik, etc), the depth chart becomes
Tanguay-Langkow-Iginla
Pandolfo-Lombardi-Moss
Nilson-Conroy-Nolan
Nystrom-Boyd-Godard
(Van Der Gulik)
Total: approx 27.11M.
Strengths: Top 3 lines can all take on tough competition without being overwhelmed.
Weaknesses: Team is even more top-heavy, with an almost complete lack of legitimate offensive threats outside the #1 line. Depending on how Boyd and Nystrom progress, the 4th line looks like a loser again to me as well (boy I hope Im wrong about the Godard thing).
Defense
Here's where the rubber really hits the road. Lots of bad money on this part of the roster that absolutely must be purged in the off-season if Sutter wants the Flames to be competitive next year (and to subsequently keep his job as the team's GM).
Depth chart (cap-hit):
Regehr (4)-Sarich (3.6)
Phaneuf (6.5)-Aucoin (4)
Giordano(.80)-Eriksson (1.5)
Warrener (2.35)
Total: 22.75M
UFAs (projected salary/year):
Hale (.600)
Vandermeer (1.5)
The issues afflicting the back-end are glaring and obvious.
First of all, Warrener's contract has to go away through whatever means necessary (short of buying him out). Even when he's healthy (which is rare) his contributions fall well short of his cap hit. If he does nothing else this Summer, Sutter absolutely MUST get rid of Warrener. To put it into perspective, Daz could conceivably re-sign both Giordano and Vandermeer for about what Warrener's salary is worth.
Next up on the hit list is my favorite punching bag, Anders Eriksson. Bubba proved beyond a shadow of a doubt (at least to me) that he's little more than a fringe NHL player at this stage in his career. Although he could probably be a capable enough 6th/7th defenseman, like Warrener, his cap-hit is out of line with his role. Deal him for bag of sweaty jocks, waive him, send him to the farm...just get rid of him.
Im more ambivalent about Adrian Aucoin however. He was decent on the PP this season and wasn't too much of a liability at ES as long as he was sheltered. 4M is still poor value, but at least Aucoin can help the team win in some manner. His NTC and bigger salary also make it more difficult to deal or send him to the minors. My feeling is Aucoin will be sticking around unless Sutter can somehow deal him and get something worthwhile coming back.
Regehr-Sarich
Phaneuf-Vandermeer/replacement
Aucoin-Giordano
Hale or Pardy
Total: approx 21M
Strengths: Cheaper, a little more mobile, with at 3 least PP capable defensemen.
Weaknesses: Still a gap in the top 4 (Vandermeer is more a 5-6 guy), unless Gio has taken a couple leaps forward.
Altogether
Forwards -- 27.1M
Defensemen -- 21M
Goalies (Kipper @ 5.833M + Back-up @ .700M) -- 6.533M
-------------------
54.64M
It's a pretty tight squeeze, even granting the eliminations of Warrener, Eriksson and Primeau and cheaping out on the top 6 LW signing. If the cap falls short of the expected 56M ceiling, then dealing one of Aucoin or even Tanguay for cheaper pieces becomes a necessity (and yes, Tanguay has a NTC as well).
Whatever Sutter makes, he's going to earn it this summer. As you can see from my hypothetical scenario above, he's facing quite the boondoggle. Perhaps the best part about the impending budget crunch is Darryl will be forced to abandon some of his bad habits. There won't be any money or room for reclamation projects (Friesen), comfortable vets (Primeau) or "experienced" defensemen (Eriksson, Zyuzin). It's "adapt or die"for this management team this summer I think. Im really quite interested to see which it will be.
