Well, this is certainly a better ten game end-point than the one I envisioned after the 1-3-1 start to the season. The five game turn around has the Flames jousting with the Wild at the top of division and looking better than they probably ever have under Sutter during the month of October.
While 10 games is still a fairly small sample size, I figure it's a round enough number to stop and look at some of the trends so far.
Special Teams:
I predicted this summer that some of the Flames personnel moves would result in improved play on the PP and PK. So far so good. Calgary is ranked 5th (22.6%) and 6th (86.5%) in each respectively.
Both started out on the wrong foot in Vancouver, but have steadily improved since. The power-play has more options on the point with the additions of Cammalleri and Giordano, while the improvements of Boyd and Moss has given the club to relatively solid units two work with. As a result, six players are above the 4 PPP/60 mark right now.
The PK's improvement has a lot to do with Kipper snapping out of his reverie quicker than usual, although that might be selling the contributions of guys like Regehr, Sarich and, yes, Wayne Primeau, short. They all have GAon/60 numbers below 6, with Primeau leading the way at 2.24. At this time last year, Regehr and crew were at about 12 to give some context to the figures...
Even-strength
My other prediction coming into the year was that the Flames would be mediocre at even-strength. And while the execution hasn't necessarily been noteworthy through the first ten games, the underlying numbers are stellar. Vic Ferrari provided this link recently, which shows the Flames Corsi rates as well as the even-strength SV% for/against with each player on the ice.
Notables:
Calgary is +106 in terms of shots directed at net through the first ten. And that's with guys like Iginla (+27) and Bertuzzi (+11) struggling relative to expectations. Giordano (+62!), Boyd (+41), Cammalleri (+34), Moss (+35), Phaneuf (+45) and Langkow (+55) have been carrying the mail in terms of ES possession.
ES SV% can give you an idea of who has been lucky/unlucky. For exmaple, Boyd has a +41 corsi rate, but the for/against SV% are lower than average on both sides. One would expect that to change if the kid keeps outplaying the opposition to this degree over the long haul.
Vic has added an imaginary #99 player, who, in his own words "represents the results when Bertuzzi and Iginla are both on the ice together". The numbers are all ugly and one starts to get the sense that Bertuzzi is the weak link at ES, especially watching him dangle for it's own sake the last couple of matches. Vic continues:
Iggy sans Bert: Corsi +28.
And I'm assuming that Iginla is playing a lot of tough minutes, regardless of linemate. And Bertuzzi only when he is on Iginla's line.
Langkow is the guy who has been saddled with Bertuzzi the most, it would appear.
Flames 99, the 'Bert without Langkow' player, is the only player on the Flames squad with negative underlying numbers. Langkow does much, much better without Todd.
After 10 games, Bertuzzi has the second lowest corsi rate of any regular forward, a ESP/60 number well below the "mendoza line" (0.99), a miserable GFON/60 figure (0.99) and the worst +/- on the team (-6). Keep in mind, he plays a lot with some pretty good players (Iginla, Langkow, Cammalleri).
This is the Bertuzzi I expected to get. His 6 goals in 6 games were nice, but had the strong scent of "right place, right time" to all of them. It looks like he's going to be a guy the team will have to try to hide all year. If he continues in this manner, I propose a new nickname: "sore thumb".
Shot blocking
The Flames have blocked 49 shots so far this season, an average of just 4.9 per game. They've given up 294 shots total, meaning they've managed to get in front of just 14.2% of the shots directed at their net so far. That's a surprisingly small number, but given the recent results, it apparently doesn't matter that much. I'll keep my eye on this as the year progresses anyways, though.
The ten game all-stars:
- Dustin Boyd - kid doesn't have all-star results, but he's really seems to have taken a step or two forward this season. He led the Flames with 7 shots on net against the Bruins last night has been getting top 6 type ES ice-time since Lombardi went down.
- Rene Bourque - New addition has been full value so far. While his hands are little suspect, he tends to drive results with speed, grit and strong board work.
- Mike Cammalleri - Still looks a little tentative at times, Cammalleri has managed to put up points anyways, despite so-so ice time at ES. Second to only Iginla on the team in terms of output.
- Mark Giordano - Playing minimal minutes against soft competition, Giordano has some decent underlying stats (and some bad ones too) but is an obvious improvement over the likes of Hale, Zyuzin, Eriksson and - yes - Warrener. He'll get more PP ice time/points once Keenan figures out that all Aucoin does these days is shoot pucks into shin pads.
- David Moss - Another support player getting the job done. Moss looks faster this season and has always been strong on the puck. Quietly and effectively gets the job done and moves the puck in the right direction.
- Dion Phaneuf - Shaky start to the year for sure, Dion seems to have settled down. He's got 9 points already and averages nearly 30 minutes a night. His game looks a lot less chaotic without Eriksson at his side.
- Robyn Regehr - Already driving positive results against tough competition, Regehr has a miniscule 1.39 GAON/60 figure, despite seeing the big boys night in, night out.
The could-be-betters:
- Todd Bertuzzi - explained.
- Jarome Iginla - Not fair to put he big guy here with 13 points in 11 games, I know. Plus he's been saddled with guys like Conroy and Bertuzzi for a lot of the time.
Still, Jarome's play and numbers are off. His ESP of 2.21 is meh (for him) and the team is in the red with him on the ice thus far (2.65 GFON/60, 3.53 GAON/60). When he's coupled with Bert, Iginla seems to spend a lot of time on the periphery, trying in vain to make cute plays and high risk passes.
The good news is, his output is still pretty decent despite some fairly average stats otherwise. Things will change, especially when Bertuzzi and/or Conroy get demoted.
- Craig Conroy - Had to know this was coming. Conroy has spent a lot of time making big, glaring errors in his own end this young season. To be fair, I object more to his role than his play, really - I think he would make a fine 14 minute/night 3rd liner. No more Connie on the first line (or PP) please.
He's kicked ass in the face-off circle, though.
- Adrian Aucoin - Still immobile, plays against nobodies, gets scored on a lot, doesn't score much, gets his shots blocked all the time, benefits from line mates. He's not horrible by any stretch, but he ain't worth $4M.
Everyone else kinda falls in-between for me.
Please keep in mind, this all based on a small sample size. That caveat given, I like the direction the club is heading...
