On the heels of yet another hat trick, that is the question currently.
Firstly, let's get a snapshot of the player.
He'll turn 27 in June and has three times scored 20+ goals in the NHL and once broken the 80 point mark (although he's on pace to do so again). He's currently first on the Flames in terms of goals (25) and PPG (12) and second on the team in points with 47. He also has a slightly better ESP/60 rate than Iginla (2.47 vs. 2.33) and the best PPP/60 rate of any regular PP skater (6.58).
That's the good stuff.
On the other hand, Cammalleri is a career minus player who tends to give up chances at ES. Also, while his CORSI rate this year is a healthy 10.8/60, it's actually a very middling number on a strong Flames squad, especially for a guy that enjoys some dcent line mates.
Finally, and perhaps the biggest flashing yellow "caution" sign for me, is his Shooting percentage of 17%. His career average is actually 12.4 (including this season) while prior it was probably down around 11 or so. It's always tough to argue against results with a snipe about SH%, but it's something that always seems to snap back to the mean eventually (just ask Jordan Staal or Mike Ribeiro).
The difference between his current and career average SH% sounds rather nominal, but the difference in terms of goals is marked: assuming 11.5% as a "real" shooting average, his expected goal output over the 147 shots he's managed so far is about 17; 8 below his current 25. Keep in mind that players who shoot lights out one year tend to fall below their career average the next as well...
That said, the next issue that has to be considered is the Flames cap space. According to NHLnumbers, Calgary has about in cap dollars committed next year. That's with Adrian Aucoin and Rhett Warrener off the books. Dustin Boyd, Adam Pardy, David Moss and Curtis MceLhinney will require marginal raises, Andre Roy can walk and Todd Bertuzzi will either have to be re-signed or replaced.
First let's assume Boyd, Pardy, Moss and CuMac are all re-upped and their raises absorb about 4M additional dollars. That's 47M spoken for, with two top 6 forwards left to consider and perhaps someone to replace the departing Aucoin.
This is where things start getting dicey. According to most pundits, the cap won't be increasing next year. In fact, some people expect it too fall, with it perhaps bottoming out around 50M. If that's true, the Flames won't have much wiggle room at all and will probably be forced to move guys like Sarich or Primeau for better bargains.
On the other hand, the team will have some room to play with if the cap is relatively static. I think both Bertuzzi and Aucoin could be replaced internally by promoting guys beneath them (Moss, Sarich) and then signing cheaper replacement level players to take those spots.
Aside from that, however, the team will need to invest in another legitimate top 6 guy - whether it's Cammalleri or someone else entirely. Undoubtedly it's going to come down to how Sutter values Cammalleri versus what the market dictates: if we get into a Gomez/Briere-style feeding frenzy in the off-season, the team might be better off letting Cammalleri walk at the $6 or 7M price-range - even if they can afford to pay him those kinds of dollars.
