There's a lot of talk recently about the Flames needing to beat elite teams "if they want to be elite themselves". As of right now, Calgary has played the best in the WC six times (Detroit, Chicago and San Jose) and won precisely zero games. I haven't checked the cumulative goal differential of those six matches, but Im guessing it would be well under water from a Flames perspective.
Calgary obviously falls into a second tier of clubs in the league right now: good enough to beat up on mediocre opponents and compile a decent record, but not a legitimate candidate to challenge the true contenders. Of course, that's why there are only a few elite teams in the league; making the leap from "good" to "great" is very difficult.
Ironically, Calgary's issues are the inverse of the problems that held the team back last season. Previously, the Flames were plagued by a lack of quality forwards beyond the top 6 - everyone below the second line were in the red in terms of goal differential. Jarome was tossing aside all comers, but Yelle et al were being chewed up themselves: the elites were elite, but the foot soldiers were cannon fodder.
This season, the supporting cast is actually carrying the day. Bourque, Moss, Glencross and to a lesser extent Boyd, Nystrom and Lombardi have taken a step forward and strengthened the overall depth of the club. The true problem thus far, though, and the reason the Flames have a nominal GD and are mired a step below the best in the league, is the near $20M in under-performing cap dollars the club has invested in Iginla, Phaneuf and Kiprusoff.
If you take a look at the best teams in the NHL right now, you'll notice they all have elite players (or players performing at an elite level). Detroit has Datsyuk, Lidstrom and Hossa; San Jose has Thornton, Marleau and Boyle; Boston has Savard, Krejci (!) and Kessel etc. All of these guys are not only just producing at high rates (at ES and the PP) but also significantly outscoring the bad guys at 5on5.
The Flames only have one guy close to that level currently: Rene Bourque. The rest of the top 6 (Langkow, Bertuzzi, Iginla, Cammalleri) either don't score that much (Bert, Langkow) or get scored on a lot (Iginla, Cammalleri).
Add in the struggles of Dion Phaneuf, who is getting scored on more and scoring less than perhaps ever before as a Flame (whatever deficiencies have been present in Dion's game in the past, he's usually been able to outscore them to some degree and end up in the black at ES) and a 5.83M goalie performing at or below the leagues mean range in just about every goaltending category except for "wins" and the Flames have a lot of under-producing dollars at the top of the roster.
Hard to diagnose the causes of the big boys struggles, because I don't think there's a single culprit. Dion seems to be buckling under a diverse litany of pressures (Norris nomination, huge amount of ice time, hefty new contract) plus the bounces haven't been kind to him. On the other hand, I think Jarome is somewhat hampered by his lesser linemates so far (although Im not sure that's the whole story), which is something I saw coming this summer when I predicted the Flames would take a step back at ES due to the expulsion of Juice and Tanguay (and addition of Cammalleri and Bertuzzi). I didn't think the effect would be this pronounced, however, and it doesn't really explain his step back on the PP...so take that for what it's worth.
As for Kipper, I think that he peaked a couple of years ago and is just...mediocre now. He's good enough to win games on a capable club, but isn't going to carry anyone to victory and certainly isn't going to be challenging for any Vezinas or Conn Smythes. I'd love to be wrong on this count, but there's a large (and growing) body of evidence that Kipper is probably overpaid by about 3M or so at this point.
I don't know if whatever is suppressing the big guns fire is intractable or merely temporary; if Jarome and/or Phaneuf can improve over their first half performances, the Flames have a chance to win the division and make some noise in the post season this year. If not, and they continue to under-deliver relative to their dollars (and ice time) then Im guessing the Flames will continue to get beat about the face and neck by the San Jose's of the World.
Prediction - 4-2 Sharks. Marleau, Cheechoo, Michalek and Boyle for San Jose. Lombardi and Langkow for Calgary
