Wednesday, October 04, 2006

The Macro-Prediction Post

I guess I should get this out there before the season starts:

I like Ottawa to take the Eastern crown. They have a capable duo of goalies, the most dangerous first line in hockey and a mobile crop of young defenders on the back-end. Buffalo will probably challenge them for the NE divsion, however.

Carolina and the Rangers will each win their respective divisions. The Hurricanes will again dominate the likes of Washington and Florida all season while the Rangers have improved by adding Shanahan, Cullen and Rachunek. Another stellar season from Jagr doesn't hurt either.

My SURPRISE! choices include Atlanta and Boston. I think Atlanta will benefit from a full year of Lehtonen in net and Kovalchuk will no doubt be a Rocket Richard finalist. The Bruins have two decent scoring lines backed up by a very solid blueline (Chara, Mara and Stuart). Their only issue may be in net, but only time will tell.

And, yes, I think NJ will be on the outside looking in. To be honest, I made up this list before Lou magically extricted himself from the Cap Mess, but Im too stuborn to change it now...

Many of the other selections are self-explanatory, aside from perhaps Montreal. I don't see the necessary depth at any position for the Canadiens and the Huet thing is a big gamble.

In the West, Detroit will again reign supreme, if only because they haven't taken enough steps backwards (or their divisional rivals, enough step forwards) to be unseated. I don't think they'll be quite as dominant this year, however.

The second spot will either go to Anaheim or San Jose - it all depends on whose strength prevails in the Pacific: the Duck's defense or the Shark's offense. Either way, both teams will beat up on the likes of Phoenix and LA all year.

Calgary in third by virtue of winning the NW. further discussion of that topic can be found a few posts below.

Nashville may be able to challenge Detroit for the Western conference crown if their young defensemen hold up for the entire year. If so, swap the Red Wings with the Predators in the chart.


I definitely think the Wild will make the post-season this year - they had decent special teams previously (including the best PK in the league), have significantly upgraded their offense with Demitra, Parrish and Johnson and a couple of their divisional rivals (Vancouver, Colorado) aren't as strong this year.

I think all of Colorado, Dallas, Edmonton and Vancouver are on the play-off bubble. An injury here or a slump there could have the Oilers in 7th and the Stars in 10th.

The rest are fairly obvious. Columbus will be better, but not better enough: trading Denis was a mistake and they still have depth issues, especially at defense. The Kings have almost no offense to speak of outside of Conroy and Frolov, but have a solid blueline. I don't think Cloutier will be a difference maker here. Chicago got a little better in the off-season by acquiring Havlat and Handzus and a rebound by the fallen Bhulin Wall may garner them a few more points...but not enough to make the post-season. The Blues are the Blues and Phoenix, well...their mishmash of ruffians, cast-offs and the frequently injured aren't going to fare particularly well in front of a 40 year old CuJo.