First, the raw stuff:
(click to enlarge)Pulled directly from nhl.com, put in a spreadsheet with the TOI figures rounded off to the nearest minute.
The resultant even-strength points per 60 minutes played look like this:
Predictably, Jarome is the big fish when it comes to ES production efficiency. I haven't crunched league-wide numbers, but Im guessing he's among elite company when it comes to this figure. In fact, despite playing only 39 games, Iginla is still in the top 10 in the NHL in terms of gross ES points.Damond Langkow and Alex Tanguay also have pretty nice looking numbers that have no doubt been somewhat augmented by playing with Jarome for most of the season. Still, both players (particularly Langkow) have continuted to be productive despite Iginla's absence from the line-up over the last 3 weeks or so. Meaning they haven't been completely riding on Iggy's coattails.
The index at left also reveals that Lombardi is something of a "special teams" guy. His ESP/60 figure is pretty unimpressive, even though he's enjoying a career season. However, 14 of his 32 points have come while either up or down a man (5 SHP, 9 PPP) which, I think, speaks partially to the kind of player he is: smaller, fast and agile, he tends to flourish when there's more room to skate (as an aside, Lombo's 5 SHP tie him with Staal and Lecavalier for 2nd in the league).
Not a lot of surprises here, otherwise. Giordano being the top ESP/60 d-man on the team is a little strange, though his higher figure is no doubt owing to his relatively miniscule amount of ice-time (384 vs. 1,193 for Phaneuf for example). Further, David Moss' 2.71 number is a decent rate for a mid-season 3rd liner call-up, although it no doubt suffers from the same confounder (small TOI sample) as Giordano's figure. Still, encouraging.
Finally, Huselius' ESP/60 stats looks a tad wee considering he's been one of the hottest Flames for the last 2 months. However, he has increased his pace from the end of November by about .50 points/60 at ES and could be among the other big boys by the 3/4 pole if he continues to augment his rate of production at this kind of clip. No guarantees, of course, but he could very well find himself back on a line with Iggy and Langkow once the Captain makes his return in February...
As for the the Powerplay points/60 minutes, they curently look like this:
Calgary's struggles with the man-advantage are clearly reflected by the fact that the likes of Iginla and Langkow have PPP/60 stats that are barely above their ESP/60 stuff. Typically, one should expect a full 1 or 2 point jump in efficiency when on the PP, relative to a player's ESP production. For example, last season Joe Sakic scored at a rate of 2.90/60 at 5on5 and 4.66/60 at 5on4. Alex Tanguay, who led the Avs with a 3.15/60 at ES jumped to 4.92/60 on the PP. Other Colorado players more than doubled their ESP/60 numbers with the man-advantage: Brunette jumped from 2.29 to 5.42 and Svatos went from 2.81 to 5.62.The Flames have Juice and Lombo in this category: both have significantly larger PPP/60 figures (and, of course, "Delmore" Phaneuf). However, those players that should be the primarily driving the PP results - namely Jarome, Damond and Alex - are putting up some rather mediocre numbers considering their proficiency at ES. Hell, Tanguay's 2.73 PPP/60 stat is a almost a full
0.70 below his ES number! how the hell does someone manage that?
It also doesn't help that the Flames don't have another d-man aside from the Dion that can produce at any sort of rate on the PP. Ference's number is only so-so even though he's only had 98 PP minutes all year. Hamrlik has been a stalwart on the back-end for the Flames thus far, but his production on the PP has to be considered at least a little disappointing. He's another guy who's ESP and PPP efficiency rates are basically the same.
Perhaps the biggest surprise for anyone glancing at the PPP/60 index is Chuck Kobasew's place a' top of the pile. Nearly half of his points this season have come on the powerplay (7 of 17) and he's only played about 92 minutes at 5on4. Still, small PPTOI aside, at least Charles seems to have some utility despite his struggles this season.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Beyond individual stats, the Flames team metrics are at once fantastic and abysmal: They lead the league in home wins (19), cumulative +/- (+43), ES goals against (55), and short-handed goals (11). The Flames are also a +33 in terms of ES goal differential and +28 in terms of total GD. TO put that in perspective, Buffalo, Anaheim, Nashville, Ottawa, New Jersey and Edmonton have goal differentials of +37, +41, +45, +32, +15 and -6 respectively.
The thing seperating Calgary from the truly elite teams like BUF, NSH and ANA in the GD category (and overall standings for that matter) is, of course, their bafflingly bad special teams (and road play, which is somewhat related). The Flames PP and PK are both currently ranked 26th in the NHL. Despite boasting the stingiest defense and 13th best offence at ES, the Flames can't seem to get their special teams up to even middling levels of competency. As mentioned, part of that has to do with their continued ineptitude on the road (glorious Saturday night victories at Rexall place aside). Right now, Calgary is a division worst 7-12-4 away from home. While almost all aspects of the Flame's game seems to suffer on the road, the special teams seem particularly bad: at the Dome, Calgary has managed 23 PPG in 132 PP chances (17.4%). On the road, they have scored at a significantly lesser rate: 14 PPG in 111 PP chances (12.6%). The disparity between the home and away PK success rates are even more substantial: At home, the Flames have killed off 83.6% of their penalties. On the road, only 75.2%. That means the Flames have the 16th best PK in the Dome that somehow transforms into the 27th best PK when they're staying in hotels! ARGGHH!
The answer to the road/special teams issues are beyond me, frankly. I've spilled a lot of ink (figuratively) around here both bemoaning these problems as well suggesting potential solutions. At this point, it really looks like a "mental thing" and all a fan can really do is hope the players can figure it out and start to execute with greater efficacy...
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
So, overall, I think the picture is a fairly rosey one. Calgary is getting elite production from their first liners at ES and are among the league's best in multiple categories. If the boys can sort out their main areas of concern to some degree of satisfaction there's no reason to the think they can't once again be the NW division champs come April.
