As any GM would tell you, the fewer question marks you have on the roster, the better. When building a team you want to assuage risk of failure by compounding as few "big ifs" as possible. For example, take a look at the Phoenix Coyotes and count all the IFs that team will need to go well in order to make the play-offs.
In a way, it's like playing the lottery: hitting one or two numbers is more probable than hitting all six.
Of course, no roster is perfect. Every line-up has it's share of uncertainty. Is the hot-shot rookie going to experience a sophomore slump? How many games will the injury prone Slovak miss? Will the reclamation veteran turn out to be Jeff Friesen or Dan Cleary? Can Rhett Warrener actually play defense any more?
With that in mind, I've compiled a list of the Flames big 'IFs' (in order from biggest to smallest) leading into next season with the hope of perhaps partially illuminating the club's chances of success (or risk of failure).
IF Adrian Aucoin is still a legit top 4 defender...
Aucoin was a horse during his time on the Island. He literally led the league in icetime for awhile. If that was the Adrian Aucoin the Flames were getting, he wouldn't be on this list.
But there's a reason Aucoin was had for the Andrei Zyuzin (probably the worst player on the back-end for Calgary last year): he was terrible in Chicago. Aucoin basically stepped into an elevator shaft as soon as he put on the Blackhawk jersey and cashed his big salary. He played in NY for 3 years, averaging 78 games, 38 points a season and a cumulative +/- rating of +47. And it's not like the Islanders were juggernauts back then either. As a Blackhawk, though, Aucoin never lived up to expectations. He was hurt for most of the 05/06 season, playing just 33 games and managing 6 points and a -13 rating.
And he was somehow worse last year. According to Desjardins, Aucoin was behind the likes of Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook in terms of facing quality opposition in 06/07. In fact, he saw some of the easiest competiton on the club and still struggled to be effective: in 774 ES minutes, he was 19 ticks to the red. He was the worst defenseman on the team in terms of GA/60 (3.56). Hell, even Cullimore did better than that, and he was recently accepted by the Canadiens as a consequence of the Samsonov salary dump (accepted and bought out, may I add).
Now, clearly there's some contextual effects here. The Blackhawks are a pretty bad team and Aucoin was battling knee issues throughout his Windy City tenure. However, it's really hard to ignore the fact that the Flames are banking on a guy who has SUCKED TOTAL ASS the last 2 seasons to adequately fill a top 4 roll on the team. I guess the Aucoin thing wouldn't be such a big gamble had he been carrying the mail at some point during his time in Chicago. But that never happened. I guess the good news for Flames fans is: he's done it before. With flying colors. The bad news is, he hasn't done it recently.
Im not sure betting on a sudden return to form, even when surrounded by a superior squad, is a good one. Aucoin has claimed in interviews his injuries are past him, but one can't rightly imagine a hockey player being totally honest with the new teams press on such a matter: "My knee? Still hurts like hell. I'll be lucky if I can hit 50 games this year. But, yeah, I hope I can contribute positively, blah blah blah..."
IF Owen Nolan has some gas in the tank...
Sutter has liked Nolan since coaching him in San Jose. He tried to get him at the deadline last February, but Nolan asked the Coyotes Franchise not to be traded due to some family issues.
The danger here might be the clouding of what Nolan is with what he used to be. The former #1 draft pick has twice scored 40+ goals, and 7 times topped the 20 goal mark. However, age and injuries have slowed Nolan considerably over the years. He took the lock-out and the entire 05/06 season off to rest his ailing knees. The 76 games he played last year represented the most he'd managed in a single season since 2000.
As a result, Nolan hasn't been an offensive force for nearly a decade. His last 40 goal year was in that same 99/00 season, when he played 78 contests. Since then, his totals have steadily declined: 24 goals, 23 goals, 22, 7 (in just 14 games), 19 and 16 from 01 to 07, respectively.
It's somewhat difficult to project Nolan's effectiveness based on his season with the Coyotes, however. He was their 2nd leading scorer, even though his point total was nothing to write home about. (16 goals, 40 points). His -2 isn't too bad considering the quality of competition he faced and the gawd awful squad surrounding him. His production rates were pretty pedestrian (1.81 ESP/60 and 3.58 PPP/60), but, again, we're talking about the Coyotes here.
He had what I'd call a "respectable" season in the desert. He wasn't a huge difference maker, but he wasn't a reason the team was losing either. Which is encouraging to a degree because that's about all the Flames will need from him on the 2nd line this season. Not to do the heavy lifting (guys like Juice and Langkow will do that) but not to become a leaden anchor either (*cough* Tony Amonte *cough*). This is assuming, of course, that Nolan plays a majority of the season, which is still in question given his injury-riddled history.
If Nolan succumbs to age and either doesn't play much or well, the Flames will have a big gaping hole on the right side of their roster (again). Conversely, if he can replicate his performance from last year, the Flames will be a leg up on what they had there last year (Kobasew/Amonte/Moss).
IF Lombardi can become a legit top 6 forward...
I like the Flames organizational depth at center. After Langkow, Lombo, Yelle, Conroy and Primeau, Calgary has promising young guys like Taratukhin, Boyd and Ryder waiting in the wings.
The problem is, most of the kids are a few years away from contributing in the bigs and the team needs a top 2 centerman NOW. Yelle, Conroy and Primeau just can't cut it in an offensive role. Langkow is a very capable two-way guy who's always good for 60 or so points.
That leaves Lombardi to fill the gap. He took some steps last year and looked to be blossoming into a legitimate threat until he faltered down the stretch. Part of that had to do with the manner in which he was employed after Conroy was acquired, but it's not like he gave Playfair much reason to promote him into the top 6 in March or April either.
That said, Lombardi did certainly look like a player during certain segments of the season. And he ripped it up at the World Championships. Myself, I'm convinced Lombo is a capable top 6 player and will flourish given the right circumstances.
Perhaps the biggest X factor here is how the Keenan/Lombardi dynamic unfolds: an early season slump and new-asshole tearing might just sink the affable young man's season.
IF huselius can kick ass again...
Had Keenan not been hired, I wouldn't have even brought this up. Juice's big season might look like an outlier, but anyone who watched him play last year knows he was often driving the results, rather than being a passenger or simply party to favorable circumstances. He produced at a 60+ point pace his first season in Flames colors, and that was on a team that simply couldn't score at ES. He's been money on the PP the past two years, both times pacing the flames in terms of PPP/60 rates. he played some decent competition (not best, not worst) at ES last year and pretty much destroyed, even though he's more of a PP kinda guy.
With apologies to Langkow, I think Juice drives the bus on the 2nd line, offensively speaking. Calgary has two difference makers at ES on the first line (Iginla and Tanguay), but a productive Huselius in the top 6 gives the Flames a vital two-pronged attack (and more dangerous PP).
The question becomes whether Huselius can be that guy again now that Keenan's in town. I expect a slight regression in terms of points for Juice this year (his shooting percentage of 19.7% was pretty high. If he falls back down to, say, his prior best of 14%, you can expect 10 less goals from him) simply because that's usually what happens when you best your prior career high by 30+ points. Something in the 10 point range wouldn't be too harmful to the team, particularly if guys like Nolan and Lombo step up (uh-oh...a confluence of IFs).
There is, obviously, the possibility that Keenan and Huselius won't get along again and the latter will get thrown under the bus, resulting in a plummet back down to his pre-Calgary numbers. That would be bad news for his hockey team, because they really don't have anyone behind Juice that can play minutes at ES and on the PP and produce at all. There isn't even a farm hand with promising enough numbers to project into that role.
Expect Juice to be a trade deadline casualty should the unthinkable happen. He's entering the last year of his contract anyways, so if he and Keenan simply can't play nice, he'll have to be shipped for someone who can get the job done on the 2nd line under iron Mike. I think we lose Huselius one way or the other by the end of next year (which is a shame because Im a big fan), but it would be quite beneficial if he could outperform his small contract for just one more season.
IF the bottom 6 can perform...
last year, the Flames bottom 6 forwards stunk. A third line should usually be one of 2 things: a shut-down line or a trio of soft Comp eaters (see: Anaheim OR Buffalo). The Flames had neither. The bottom six was littered with dead weight (Friesen, McCarty, Amonte, Lundmark) and underperformers (Yelle, Nilson) resulting in two de facto 4th lines. The highly exploitable bottom half of the roster is part of the reason the Flames were so bad on the road: Friesen et al. just couldn't keep up when they had to face the big guns.
This year, the Flames need a competent compliment of supporting players. Yelle and Conroy have been considered for the Selke in the past, so there's hope. Nilson, who is a decent checking forward at 100%, has supposedly fully recovered from his injury woes. Moss and Primeau should be able to at least come out even against other 4 liners, if not better. To my eye, the bottom 6 looks much improved over last season. The lynch-pin may be Yelle's play and where Conroy lands in the line-up: if Conny gets the automatic "play with Jarome card" (leaving Lombo swimming around uselessly on the 3rd line) or if Yelle fails to regain his defensive form, Calgary will likely struggle to keep the opposition's scorers in check away from the Dome again.
I've stated before I think this is a better team than last year. A lot of my punching bags have moved on (Amonte, Friesen, Ference) and I like some of the additions (Tanguay, Sarich) and the development of the key pieces (Iginla, Lombardi, Regehr, Phaneuf). But, as you can see, the roster isn't without its coin flips. If a couple (particularly the BIG ones like Aucoin and Nolan) land on heads, the team will roll along fine. On the other hand, should Sutter come up snake eyes on most of his big gambles, it's unlikely the Flames will experience any large measure of success.
