This is Robin Williams in Danny DeVito's unheralded comedy "Death to Smoochy".In the film, Williams plays "Rainbow Randolph", a pitiable child's show host who experiences a fall from grace due to a series of comical errors.
Here's a brief plot synopsis for those of who haven't seen the movie:
At the onset of the picture, Randolph is the undisputed king of children's entertainment. His is the top rated show of it's kind and Randolph is considered the genius of the industry. That is, until he is caught accepting bribes in an undercover sting operation. Randolph is subsequently fired and humiliated, resulting in a dizzying spiral of degredation that includes various, ill-advised, anger-filled, hair-brained schemes designed to de-throne the usurper of his lost position (Edward Norton's "Smoochy").
In the wake of the Penner offer sheet, the parallels between Lowe and Randolph seem uncanny. Not just the "fall from grace" part, or the desperate, ill-fated attempts to regain lost glory. But also the sheer, vehement hatred their antics have inspired in others.
There's a particular scene from the film that's been playing over and over in my head since yesterday. In it, Randolph is being led to a police car and swarmed by the parasitic media after one of his venomous character attacks on Smoochy has been uncovered. In the middle of the scrum, one reporter manages to deliver this jab: "How does it feel to be the most hated man in America?"
(To which, Williams quickly replies in one of the film's outtakes, "Im sure OJ still has a slight lead!")
How 'bout it Kevin? how does it feel to be the most hated man in the NHL?
I have to be clear, Im not talking from a purely GM/NHL managment perspective here (though Im certain Lowe doesn't have many friends besides Gretzky and Sather left in the NHL's upper offices).
Lowe has managed to convert many of his most ardent followers into his most outspoken critics in a very short period of time. Less than 24 months ago he would have been afforded a hero's welcome by the whole of the "Oilogospehre" and general Oilers fanship. Now, Im guessing the likes of Tyler (Mudcrutch), Lowetide, Kyle, and Chris! and co. from Covered in Oil would have to seriously question whether to brake or not if they see Kevin crossing the road.
Not that they're without justification. The Edmonton team that went to the Stanley Cup finals in 2006 has been clumsily dismantled and destroyed through an accumulation of blunders. Let's review:
- The trading of Pronger for magic beans
- The signing of support players to inflated contracts (Horcoff, Pisani, etc.)
- The unwillingness or inability to fill Prongers void on the blueline.
- The unwilllingness to re-up local hero and best forward on the team, Ryan Smyth.
- The inability to turn an embarrassment of riches at the draft into immediate help.
- The failed Nylander signing at Ryan Smyth's price point.
- The signing of Souray to a long, expensive contract.
- The Vanek and Penner offer-sheets. The first was doomed to fail and the second may well be doomed to succeed.
Lowe now has a bottom-feeder team on his hands, one that offers little to no incentive for UFA's to sign there (aside from overpayment). The desperate gambit to pry a 45 point RFA out of Anaheim, at the expense of 3 draft picks and more than $4M/season, looks to be the last straw for many Oiler fans. There are a few blindly loyal Lowe supporters clamouring to spin this move as potentially positive, but to many others (and to most outsiders) this completely reeks of panic and desperation.
Penner is big body, sure, and he scored an impressive 29 goals in his first full season. He also played under very favorable circumstances last year: excellent team, good linemates and soft opposition. And yet his head wasn't above water at ES. His counting numbers are, perhaps, encouraging, but so were Lupul's before he became an Oiler. Further, as almost any attentive hockey fan can attest, one decent season a star does not make. Does anyone remember that Joe Juneau scored 102 points in his rookie year?
Penner is a gamble. A big gamble. He's got a single, merely decent year on a good team under his belt. He doesn't have a Vanek-like ceiling, clearly. At best, I'd suggest he's a competent Soft Comp Eater at ES, and that's on a good team that has the depth to shelter him.
Edmonton is not a good team. They aren't good without him and they aren't much better with him.
Sure, Penner has an impressive physical frame (which is often cited by the few apologists I've observed around the web), but so does Wayne Primeau. A big body is neither necessary nor sufficient to succeed in the NHL. Forty-five points and a -2 rating from a 245 pounder is no more valuable than 45 points and a -2 rating from an 180 pounder. Matthew Lombardi, who is roughly the same age as Penner, scored 20 goals and 46 points and was +10 last year on a lesser team. He also likely faced competition that was at least equal, if not tougher, than Penner did. Would those few fans defending the offer-sheet as savvy feel the same way if Lowe were pursuing Lombo? Does $21M and the first 3 draft picks in 2008 for Matthew Lombardi sound ridiculous? And so it should.
It's a terrible and expensive gamble. It doesn't measurably improve the team and it costs a bundle in terms of real dollars, cap space and future assets. Penner has yet to prove that he can be a difference maker at the NHL level. He doesn't have the history or the pedigree that suggests he could ever live up to the price the Oilers are apparently willing to pay for him (and just about everyone, it seems, besides Ryan Smyth).
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Regardless of Burke's prior claims that he'd match any offer tendered to Penner, one has to think Brian's going to accept the cap space and futures and run with them. It just makes too much sense. He has guys like Todd Bertuzzi and youngster Bobby Ryan to fill Penner's absence. He'd also have issues shoehorning Penner's new 1000% raise into his cap budget, especially if Niedermayer doesn't retire. And he hasn't signed Selanne (or a Selanne replacement) yet. By not matching the offer, he loses 40-50 points of 2nd line production, but gains valuable breathing space and 3 swings of the bat in a deep draft next year. The Ducks have maturing youngsters in Perry, Getzlaf and Ryan. I can't see how losing Penner could possibly represent a grevious blow to their roster.
No, I don't think Burke is going to bail Lowe out of this one. And when Penner is struggling to a 40 point, -15 season at the $4.3M price point, I honestly wonder if Lowe will be given the opportunity to fix yet another misstep.
I doubt it.
