It's been a mixed bag for Flames fans this summer. I've already made my cheers and jeers list, but here it is again in short order:
Cheers!
Iginla extension
Regeher extension
Sarich acquisition
Playfair demotion
Zyuzin gone
Jeers!
Aucoin acquisition
Primeau signing
Giordano loss
Taratukhin loss
Warrener remains
I dutifully purchased my pre-season tickets a few days ago with the sting of the Giordano and Taratukhin defections still fresh. As I picture Warrener hobbling around the Dome and Giordano sipping Borscht on some frozen tundra, it got me to wondering - what would I have done differently if I was Sutter this summer?
First off, let's keep all the stuff I like: Regehr/Iginla extended, Sarich nabbed, Playfair dethroned. I'll throw in the Nolan signing as well, since I'm ambivalent about it.
In the next part of the fanatasy, Aucoin is still an overpaid Blackhawk, Primeau bolts for free agency and Giordano get his one way-deal. And I wouldn't sign Eriksson. And let's say I ink Gio for the 800k he got from the Komrades.
First things first: get rid of Andrei Zyuzin and Rhett Warrener. Andrea would probably only command a bag of pucks in return (if you're lucky). In fact, without accepting another team's baggage in the deal, it's unlikely one could move Zyuzin. So, I'd put him on waivers, demote him to the farm, etc. Whatever it took to get his salary off the books
Warrener, as a 3 time Stanely Cup finalist and such and such probably has some value left in the league. I'd trade him to a team lacking depth and looking for salary to make it to the cap floor. Washington or Phoenix for example. Warrener for a 6th rounder sounds right.
The resultant depth chart looks like this:
Tanguay - Langkow - Iginla
Huselius - Lombardi - Nolan
Nilson - Yelle - Moss
Godard - Conroy - ?
Taratukhin (?)
Phaneuf - ?
Regehr - Sarich
Hale - Giordano
?
Kipper
Krahn
Cap hit = 37.251
Lots of question marks, but lots of money to spend too.
I think I'd pursue Danny Markov first off to plug the big hole beside Phaneuf. I'll try to limit my fanatasy signings to somewhat realistic scenarios involving guys who are still available, which will avoid the inevitable question of "would X player have chosen to sign with Calgary over team Y?"
Word is, Markov has been demanding some big dough (thus why he's still available). Would Aucoin's 4M salary be enough to land him? Let's make it 4.5M over two years just to be sure.
Markov has been an able NHL vet for some time now. He can play against decent competition and is known for his physicality on the ice. He doesn't score much and is somewhat injury prone (less so than Aucoin, however). The only contextual complication with picking up Markov is he's a lefty, like Regehr and Phaneuf, but that's a relatively minor quibble I think.
Next, I'd look to shore up that weak RW position. Iginla - Nolan - Moss is a fairly unimpressive collection excluding Jarome.
That's where the underrated Mike Johnson comes in. I did a little piece back in May that detailed why I thought the Flames should pursue Johnson during the off-season:
Mike Johnson is known more for his defensive prowess than his offensive abilities. Keep in mind, however, he did manage 63 points in 02/03 and 54 points in 05/06 on some pretty bad Phoenix squads, so he's not totally devoid of skill in the attacking end. That said, he's only twice been a 20 goal-scorer in his 9+ NHL seasons. His GPG pace of 0.19 isn't terribly below Hartnell's, however. He spent the 2nd most time on PK out of any Montreal forward last year, meaning he would be a welcome addition to the Flames lackluster PK.
From behindthenet.ca, Johnson played the 2nd toughest minutes of any forward on the Canadiens last year at ES behind Bonk, and still managed to be above water in terms of +/-/60 (0.13). That's a significant accomplishment on a club that couldn't score at ES and who's majority of "difference makers" (Koivu, Kovalev, Souray, Ryder) were more than a few ticks to the red by the end of the year. Keep in mind, his 31 points as a Hab aren't terrible, considering he got next to no PP time (43 minutes) and played a majority of the season with guys like Bonk, Perezhogin, Latendresse and Begin. Thirty-one points against tough competition with those kinds of teammates and next to zero PP time is nothing to sneeze at.
(Also, look at the murderer's row Johnson played against last year: 45 minutes against the likes of Heatley, Vanek, Sundin and 30+ minutes against St. Louis, Briere, Alfredsson, Bergeron, Afinogenov, Spezza and Savard. Brutal. And this guy was a plus player!)
Also, keep in mind Johnson managed 54 points and +7 rating on a pretty bad Coyotes team in 05/06. Can we all agree he's a better player than Wayne Primeau now?
I projected Johnson as a 1.5M guy back in May. Let's say that's accurate in light of the fact that he's still looking for work (for some baffling reason).
So we've added Johnson and Markov for a combined 6.0M. Warrener, Zyuzin and Primeau have taken a walk and, presumably, Giordano and Taratukhin stick around because they perceive there's room for them on the roster.
New depth chart:
First Two lines unchanged
Nilson - Yelle - Johnson/Moss
Taratukhin - Conroy - Johnson/Moss
Gordard
and
Phanuef - Markov
Regehr - Sarich
Giordano - Hale
?
Kipper
Krahn
Cap Hit = 44.076
One could probably add a cheap vet to the blueline corps to shore up the depth. Let's say a David Tanabe for .950M. Tanabe has over 400+ GP worth of experience, including 60 games and 1,000 minutes with the Huricanes last season (including 5 goals and 17 points). In fact, one could reasonable swap him with Hale on the depth chart, resulting in a Giordano-Tanabe bottom pairing.
New Cap hit = 45.026
Let's compare the actual bottom six to my fantasy line-up:
Nilson - Yelle - Moss/Conroy
Godard - Primeau - Moss/Conroy
?
versus
Nilson - Yelle - Johnson/Moss
Taratukhin - Conroy - Johnson/Moss
Godard
I don't know about you, but the latter looks like the superior roster to me. It's hard to put a finger on Taratukhin's* contributions, but it's fair to say he'd outscore Godard at least and probably Primeau as well. Ditto Johnson, who would likely be a superior option to Primeau at ES and on the PK.
*(this is all assuming that Taratukhin would have stuck it out with the Flames if Primeau hadn't been re-signed. For all I know, the Russian mafia offered him a dump truck full of money to return to Russia. Or threatened to kill his mother if he didn't. Meaning he wouldn't have stuck around whatever Sutter did. But, that's why this is a fantasy).
And now the defense corps, actual versus fantasy:
Phaneuf - Aucoin
Regehr - Sarich
Warrener - Hale
Eriksson
Vs.
Phaneuf - Markov
Regehr - Sarich
Giordano - Tanabe
Hale
Hard to declare a winner here. Aucoin has a higher ceiling than Markov, but has also been a much worse player the last 2 seasons. Warrener is better against tougher competition than Giordano, but scores MUCH less, costs much more and is more likely to be chronically injured. Tanabe is probably as good or better than Hale or Eriksson. He's cheaper and younger than the latter, and more able offensively than the former. If Aucoin and Warrener remain healthy all year, the actual line-up might be the better one. If not, I believe my fantasy team wins. The Giordano roster is cheaper cap-wise and has more offense as well.
Anyways, that's how I would have gone about things in Sutter's stead this summer. The bottom-six looks much stronger while the defense corps is younger, cheaper, scores more goals and is less apt to get injured. I believe the resultant fantasy team cap hit is actually marginally less than what the real team will cost this year as well.
