Thursday, November 22, 2007

Alterations

So, after my incessant (figurative) hollering about it, Lombardi finally got a fair shake with Iginla and Tanguay last game. And the results were good. Iginla and Lombardi hooked up for the game winner in highlight reel fashion. Leading one to assume that Lombardi will start the upcoming game off as the pivot on the #1 line...

I'm actually wondering what Keenan will do with match-ups if the new trios stick. Will Iginla continue to go head to head against other big guns? What kind of opposition should Nystrom-Conroy-Nolan see? I started thinking about this because Lombardi's previously short-lived/sparodic promotions to first-line duty in the past seemed rather arbirtary on the surface. However, it made me wonder if Keenan was employing Lomabrdi with Iginla situationally, ie: against lesser competition. Iginla's goal on Tuesday night came against Clark-Sauer and Smyth-Arnason-Hejduk, which is hard to draw conclusions from given that it looks like a temporary and unruly hybrid of opposition (in the middle of a line-change perhaps?). That it wasn't against Sakic is potentially significant however, since it's typically been Sakic v. Iginla in the past as far as I could tell.

What Im getting at in a round-about sort of way is, Keenan might be thinking about running the newly formed Conroy line backed by Regehr at the tougher comp while exploiting the softer underbelly with Iginla/Lombardi/Tanguay + Phaneuf. Conroy struggled when he was trying to keep up with the big guns, but probably has it in him to play a basic "try not to let the other guy score on you" kind of game. Ditto Nolan on both counts. Nystrom may be a rookie, but he's a 25 year-old rookie who got to the show by being a PK/defensive type of winger. With Regehr finally starting to come around, the Flames might just have a shut-down line capable of minimizing the damage against while giving Iginla and co a chance to beat the crap out of the lesser lights (with Langkow and Hueslius playing against the nobodies).

I don't know if this speculation bears any resemblance to reality or not. Hell, chances are Conroy will once again be placed between Tanguay and Iginla tonight and for ever more (for some fucking unknown reason), meaning more power v. power stuff. However, should the Lombardi promotion stick, it'll be interesting to see how Keenan manages his bench.

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The surprising Blackhawks are in town tonight. You gotta admire their early season success, even if (like me) you don't think it'll last. Chicago has scored an impressive 61 GF in 20 GP, good for 3.05 GPG rate. However, only 29 of those markers have come at ES. Only NYI, MTL and NYR have less than that. Chicago's given up 38 GA 5on5, giving them an ES GD of -9. The Flames, in contrast, have 42 ES GF, and have given up 34 (+8).

Chicago's fortunes have come on the back of guys like Kane, Toews and Patrick Sharp so far. The first two are really talented kids...but they're KIDS and bound to take a step or two backwards at some point this year, while Sharp is on pace to eclipse his previous career high by about 30 points (wanna bet he doesn't keep up his 40 goal pace?). And I haven't even mentioned the 7 SH goals and 5 EN net goals that are serving to prop up their GF totals...

The Hawks certainly have some nice pieces in place. The years of being the Central's bitch has resulted in some decently high picks. Keith, Seabrook, Ruutu, Kane, Toews are gonna be excellent players in this league. But they can't carry the this roster for a full season yet. At some point, this bubbles going to burst.

Will it be tonight? Hopefully, but who knows. Predicting a Flames game has been a futile exercise so far this year. If Regehr and Kipper continue to improve (and Nolan keeps looking like he doesn't want to retire quite yet), Calgary should take this one.

NOTE - According to TSN, Dustin Boyd has been called up for this evenings match because someone on the roster (?) is suffering from the flu. He hasn't been very good on the farm this year, so expect him to see spot duty on the 4th line.

UPDATE - In direct opposition to TSN's "flu" claim, Keenan says Boyd was called up based on "merit" rather than injury concerns. Which is good, but doesn't seem to make much sense on the face of it. Boyd has some really pedestrian numbers in the AHL this year and has struggled quite a bit by all accounts. Meaning, I don't see what he's done since training camp to convince Sutter and Keenan he's earned a shot at the bigs (Im not complaining myself. I prefer Boyd to Godard, Primeau and Smith at the very least. I also thought he was the best rookie during the preseason). Whatever. Here's hoping he does enough to make Primeau (or the various players of his ilk cluttering the Flames roster) redundant.

Prediction - Flames 4, Hawks 1. Huselius, Lombardi, Phanuef and Langkow for Calgary. Lang for the Hawks.