The foolish trade proposals mentioned below got me thinking about what the Flames may actually attempt to do at or around the trade deadline this year.
As I've mentioned previously, the Flames most glaring need (going on 3 seasons now, I think) is a capable winger to play the right side behind Jarome Iginla. Owen Nolan, Eric Godard, David Moss and rookie Dustin Boyd represent the Flames current, sad-sack options. One is over the hill, two don't have the raw ability and one is a 21 year-old centerman.
So what are the options? Pending UFA Rwers include:
Hossa (6M)
Demitra (4.5M)
Satan (4.255M)
Ryder (2.950)
Rolston (2.432)
Lapointe (2.4M)
Dumont (2.25M)
Hunter (1.55M)
Vyborny (2.2M)
Let's start scratching off the obvious no-gos:
Hossa is a fantastic hockey player and would cost the Flames way too much to rent. Anyone acquiring Hossa should probably be doing so with a mind to re-signing him in the summer, considering the assets they'll have to give up to pry him out of Atlanta. With the impending budget crunch, that's certainly not a possibility here.
The Wild will keep Demitra around for their play-off run and wouldn't be trading him to a divisional rival anyways. Ditto Rolston.
Marty Lapointe is a role player at this point in his career. Calgary has those in spades.
David Vyborny is a soft, marginal "skill" player. He had a good year with BJ's last season but has dropped off considerably this year. I wouldn't surrender anything more than a mid-tier draft pick for him.
That leaves us with a couple of Islanders (Hunter, Satan), the previously suggested Michael Ryder and the Preds JP Dumont.
These guys currently belong to teams that are desperate to make the play-offs in order to enliven a fickle or shrinking fan base. As of right now, both clubs are on the bubble to make the post-season and will probably hang on to all of their primary assets if that remains true come the end of February, thanks to their desperate need to keep the fans interested.
With that in mind, let's assume for now that the Islanders and the Predators are out of the race come the end of February. Who should the Flames pursue?
Miro Satan -
The man with the Devils name has seemingly been around forever, but he's actually just 32. He's had a pretty dismal season so far, counting just 10 goals and 23 points. Keep in mind, however, that he plays for one of the lowest scoring clubs in the league and his 23 points are actually good for 3rd best on the Island. His ESP/60 rate is worse than ordinary (1.75), but is in the same realm as team leader Mike Comrie (1.86) and above Bill Guerin (1.68). Obviously there's some coaching and team effects conspiring to suppress offensive production in New York this year.
To his credit, Satan did manage 27 goals last year and 35 goals the year before on similarly bad NYI teams. In fact, Satan has scored 20+ goals the last nine seasons before this one, besting 30 goals 4 times. He's also a fairly good PP producer, scoring in double-digits in terms of PP goals 5 different times in his career.
One of the surprising things I discovered when looking up the Prince of Darkness' stats was his very healthy GA/60 rate for this year - 1.85. That's more than a point better than Mike Comrie (2.93), though the disparity is potentially explained by their differing levels of competition (-0.02 versus 0.04). Still, the Flames don't need someone to take on the heavy lifters - they have Jarome for that. They just need a guy that can convert Tanguay's passes and score on the PP once every so often. So while Satan hasn't been that great at the PP stuff this year (1.69 PPP/60), his history suggests he could do better with better teammates.
Trent Hunter -
Calder finalist has struggled to live up to the levels he set in his rookie campaign. After scoring 25 goals and 51 points in his inaugural season, Hunter has since never broken the 40 point mark and only once managed 20 goals again.
The best part about Hunter might be the raw package: he's big, physical and has a great shot. It's tempting to think a change of scenery and better linemates may be able to coax more out of him. It's a gamble, however, considering his rather mediocre offensive number over the last few years.
His stats from this season are fairly underwhelming. He's scored at the paltry rate of 1.27 ESP/60 at 5on5 so far. Oddly, and to his credit, it looks Hunter's been facing some of the toughest competition on the team. His Qual of Comp rating is 0.07, matched only by Mike Sillinger. This suggests that Nolan night be employing Hunter in a third line/shut-down role, which would go a long explaining his offensive struggles and relatively high GA/60 rate (2.89). Potentially the most encouraging stat, from a Flames perspective, is Hunter's 3.11 PPP/60 rate. It's not fantastic in absolute terms, but it does make him the 3rd best producer on NYI behind just Comrie and MA Bergeron.
Ironically, I'll get a chance to assess both players tomorrow as the NYI are swinging into town. I haven't had much opportunity to watch the Isles this year, so it'll be an opportunity to put observational flesh on the bare bones of the above stats.
Michael Ryder -
A shorter blurb on the elder Ryder since I've talked about him before. He seems to have worked his way back into the line-up recently, although most of his stats still look really terrible. His ESP/60 efficiency is about that of Eric Nystrom's (0.85), while his PPP/60 rate (3.53) is equally unimpressive, given his team has one of the best powerplays in the league.
Perhaps the only positives stats to look at when it comes to Mike this season is his ridiculously low shooting percentage - now 6.7%, a full 5% below his career average (which indicates a bad run of luck that will likely correct itself eventually) - and his positive CORSI figure of 2, which is actually the best on the team (only Koivu and Hamrlik are the only other Canadiens in the black by this measure).
So while the Canadiens will likely be in the thick of the play-off race come the dead-line (and therefore not in a position of selling off assets), Im sure they'll still be accepting suitors for Ryder. Since he's UFA in the summer and probably more than a little disgruntled in his current situation, it's doubtful he'll re-sign in Montreal. Might as well get something for him when you can.
Dumont -
Probably the most attractive of the "possibles", Dumont is just 29 and is having a pretty damn fine season despite the Preds struggles. He's third on the club in scoring with 16 goals and 32 points. He's also currently on a six game goal scoring streak, a feat matched only by Henrik Zetterberg this year.
Dumont has the best ESP/60 of the 4 suggested rentals, humming along at 2.41 points per hour (4th best on the team). His PP efficacy is actually a fairly disappointing 2.93 PPP/60, although that's not something Nashville excels at (24th best in the league). He's on pace to score 20+ goals for the 5th time in 6 years and while his sooting percentage is a tad high (16.8%), it's not grossly outside of his career norms. No fluke here.
Given that Dumont has become an integral part of the Preds line-up, it's unlikely he'll be dealt away. I fully expect Nashville to keep him around for their play-off push and then attempt to re-sign him long-term. But, it's nice to dream sometimes.
There are other pending UFA RWers, but they're all from the Brian Willsie, Branko Radivojevic , Trevor Letowski species of player that wouldn't be of much (read: any) use to the Flames.
The other part of the equation, of course, is the question of what the Flames would have to give up to acquire any of these guys. Any proposal that threatens Calgary's more valuable future assets (Boyd, Backlund, first round picks) or untouchables (Iginla, Phaneuf, Regehr) is a non-starter. I'll be honest here: Calgary isn't a true contender for the cup this year in my eyes. Selling the future, Atlanta or Nashville style, for a name at the deadline with the vain hope of challenging for the Holy Grail would be ill-conceived, injurious to the Franchise and ultimately fruitless.
Anyways to conclude:
- Best Option - Dumont
- Least Likely to Obtain - Dumont
- Most Available - Ryder
- Least Expensive to Acquire - Trent Hunter
