Sharks in town tonight, the second game of a double-header for them. Normally, I'd say that would be an advantage for the Flames, but the Oilers went down like mewling kittens last night so I doubt that SJ will be in any way fatigued.
Actually, since the Flames have been off for more than a week, the fact that the Sharks have played recently is decidedly disadvantageous: practices aren't games, rust, timing etc. Also, this is the Sharks we're talking about; a team that routinely schools the Flames in their own barn.
Since Im not too confident about the Flames chances tonight, I'll bounce off of yesterday's post and take a long view at the remainder of the season...
1.) Assuming for the moment that 95 points will be the post-season threshold, the Flames need 37 points in their final 33 games, or roughly a 17-13-3 record to make it. Assuming again that Calgary would prefer NOT to meet Detroit in the first round, anything above that should be the goal: 19-10-4, for instance, would breach the 100 point barrier and assure a more favorable first round match-up.
2.) Calgary has managed to be a pretty capable 5on5 team this year. They've outscored their opponents by double digits at ES thus far, which, considering Kippers mediocre year and the vast amount of minuses populating the bottom end of the roster, is pretty impressive. A trade deadline acquisition and some roster alchemy (ie; keep Lombardi with Yelle) might propel the ES figure further into the black...
what seems to be holding the Flames back from being a consistently excellent club is their special teams both of which are worse than ordinary. The PK has improved since the first couple dreadful months, but still languishes near the bottom of the league (81.0%, 21st). In addition, the PP has been steadily falling in efficiency for awhile now (Iginla's slump has really hurt in this regard) and is also down in the bottom 3rd of the league (16.7%, 20th). The latter fact is a headscratcher given that the Flames have scored the 8th most ES goals in the NHL (95). Intuitively, a team that can score 5on5 should be able to score 5on4, but that hasn't happened for Keenan's Flames this year. I dont know if it has to do with personnel (is there a worse 2nd PP unit in the entire league?), coaching (it's said that Keenan almost never practices the PP) or luck (Dion Phaneuf's shooting percentage is down more than 4% relative to his career average - that translates to more than 6 lost goals over the 163 shots he's taken already). Whatever it is, a marked upswing with the man advantage would go a long way to improving the Flames fortunes.
3.) Trade deadline acquisitions. Another top 6 forward could maybe help the PP, though I think Im starting to see a top 4 defender as the more pressing need. Here's the Flames defense corps:
Sarich - Regehr
Eriksson - Phaneuf
Aucoin - Hale
Warrener
Here they are again, except in terms of Qual of Comp and (EV+/-).
0.04 (+4), 0.04 (+13)
-0.01 (-4), 0.01 (+9)
-0.01 (+12), -0.02 (+3)
-0.09 (+1)
I know Eriksson's nickname is Bubba, but I'd say that "Sore Thumb" is probably more appropriate. Aucoin has faced similar opposition this year, with a lesser partner a lot of the time, and is +16 better than Eriksson at ES. To my eye, Keenan needs to leave Adrian with Dion for the remainder of the year and play an Eriksson/Hale or Warrener duo 10 minutes a night OR Sutter needs to go after another Brad Stuart type (hopefully one with a less detrimental price-tag attached this time). May I suggest pending UFAs Mark Eaton (0.06, +2) or Michal Rozsival (0.03, -1) or Marek Malik (0.07, +5)?
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Anyways, I guess a prediction is in order. As I said, Im not optimistic about tonight. 4-2 Sharks. Ehrhoff, Thornton, Pavleski and Cheechoo for SJ. Lombardi and Tanguay for the Flames.
