I gave the Flames their first quarter overview a little while ago, so now it's the rest of the league's turn.
Here, in no particular order, are things that have struck me so far.
- The San Jose Sharks are just rolling over people. It's absurd. They have a cap ceiling roster, but could probably shed one or both of Milan Michalek (4.33M) and Jonathan Cheechoo (3M) without too many problems.
That said, the Sharks are on pace to have a GD above +100 and 140 points. A slow down is inevitable.
- Speaking of which, Shea Weber has 10 goals and 21 points through his first 20 games. His ESP/60 rate is better than most forwards and ESG/60 rate is higher than most defensemens total scoring rate. His SH% is currently 14.7, which puts him in Jarome Iginla territory. He's currently on pace to score 40 goals and 84 points.
That's incredible. But, unless Weber's the next Paul Coffey, expect him to hit a wall eventually.
- The Avalanche are awful. I picked them to do well this season, but without Sakic in the line-up, they have nothing below their top line. I missed the boat completely on that one.
- A lot of people are puzzled by the current struggles of the Montreal Canadiens, but it's not that surprising. The coins all landed on heads for them last year: a bunch of their forwards, from Kovalev on down, had top notch (15% or higher) shooting percentages (Kostitsyn X2, Plekanec), for example. Hell, even Markov was humming along at an 11% clip.
I think they're a pretty good team and should break out of the offensive problems soon (the additions of Tanguay and Lang certainly help that roster), but Kovalev isn't a really an 84 point player and Plekanec isn't really a 30 goal scorer. They're aren't the offensive juggernaut they're output from last year would suggest, to put it another way.
- Lots of people are talking about Kris Versteeg and Derek Brassard (for good reason). One under the radar rookie to watch is the Blues Patrik Berglund. The big Swede has had his ice-time carefully managed through the first bit here and he's put up eye-popping underlying numbers as a result. He's also a kid that put up big numbers against men for Vasteras in Sweden last year (21 goals, 45 points in 36 games) so the talent is there.
The talk was Berglund would be getting a bump in ice and opportunity with the Andy McDonald injury until he went down with some ailment himself. Still, definitely a guy to keep an eye on when he gets back into the line-up.
- Vancouver is the best team in the NW based on the first 20 games. It really pains me to say that. The Sedins are again full value, but the emergence of the Kesler/Burrows/Hansen trio as a viable ES unit has really solidified things up front. Those guys take on the big boys every night and keep their heads above water.
Im sure the Luongo injury is going to cause problems, but I dont think it will be a death blow. Damn it!
- I chose Alexander Semin in the middle rounds of both my keeper pools this year. And while I expect his rates to fall when he gets back from injury, HAHAHA all the same.
- I wonder if anyone else has noticed that Joey MacDonald somehow has 9 wins and is 15th in the league with a .912 SV%? I mean...really? The guy is 28 and had played a grand total of 17 NHL games before this.
- Will Marian Gaborik for Jay Bouwmeester happen this year? That swap seems to make sense, although the Wild will probably need to get a top 6 forward or two when they move Gabbers. Mikko Koivu is good, but he can't do it all.
- The Blackhawks look like the real deal to me. They're fast and capable with the puck. Hell, Toews has yet to really get going and they have $6M needlessly tied up in goaltending, but they still have the third most goals in the league. Once one or both of those things resolve themselves, they should be even better. Not quite elite yet, but miles ahead of where they were a couple of years ago.
- The Dallas Stars are brutal. Like Montreal, a lot of things went right for Dallas last year (Hagman, Ribeiro, rookie d-men playing like vets) and the pendulum has completely swung the other way.
It's not just luck though: their decent depth players were pillaged over the summer (Hagman, Miettinen, Jokinen) and replaced with douchebags (Avery) or big gambles (Brunnstrom). They have nearly 8M mis-allocated in Mike Richards and Smith is busy stopping 93% of the shots he sees in Tampa while Turco sinks into the swamp in Dallas.
Now with Ott and Morrow down for the count, I can't see them making climbing out of the considerable hoel they've dug. Turco can't continue to be this bad all year, but even a return to form by him won't be enough to save this lame horse.
