We're 20 games in now, so I figure it's time to sit down and assess what we really have on our hands with the Flames. While it's still early, with plenty of time for things to change (Ottawa was one of the best teams in the league at this point last year), there's enough data on the books to give us at least a rough idea of the characteristics and trends going forward - barring some steep reversal of fortune, naturally.
This is going to be a long post. Some of it may be of no interest to anyone but me. Fair warning.
The Record
Calgary is 11-8-1 through twenty. They're 4-4-0 within their division, although all four wins have come against the hapless Colorado Avalanche. The Flames have one of the worst road records in the div (4-6-0), but also one of the best home records (7-2-1). Calgary is nominally "4th" in the Western Conference, although the two other teams with 23 points have played 2 and 3 less games (Chicago, Minnesota) respectively.
Commenter Ngthagg mentioned yesterday that the playoff team/non-playoff team splits are less than complimentary so far:
Although the home/away split looks bad, I think the playoff team/non-playoff team looks even worse. Of course, that will likely change over time, but still, it's 2-6-1 vs. 8-2-0. The GD is even worse: +7/-14 home and away, but +11/-18 PO/NPO.
Including yesterday's win, the split is now 2-6-1 vs. 9-2-0. Meaning 9 of the Flames 11 wins have come against The Western Conferences bottom feeders, while 7 of the Calgary's 9 losses came at the hands of opponents the Flames will (ostensibly) be battling with for play-off position.
Goal differential - which is technically a better predictor of future success than raw record - isn't kind to the Flames either. As Ngthagg mentions, Calgary is in the red by 18 against the stronger clubs. Overall, The Flames have managed 57 GF and 63 GA for a GD of -6. That's the second worst figure of any of the WC teams currently in play-off position, ahead of only the Edmonton Oilers (-9). Most depressingly, even the St.Louis Blues (-5) Phoenix Coyotes (-2) and Los Angeles Kings (0) have slightly superior numbers.
What this suggests to me is: the Flames position in the standings is probably misleading. They've had a relatively easy schedule so far, with a full half of their games coming at home and 11 of 20 against the cellar dwellers. In addition, the fact that Calgary has played more games than nearly 70% of the Conference is further skewing things.
Standings in terms of WN%:
San Jose - 80%
Detroit - 72%
Minnesota - 65%
Vancouver - 60%
Calgary - 55%
Chicago - 50%
Anaheim - 50%
Nashville - 50%
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Phoenix - 47%
Edmonton - 45%
Colorado - 44%
Los Angeles - 44%
Columbus - 42%
St.Louis - 38%
Dallas - 33%
Teams ranked by GD:
1.) San Jose (+24) (!)
2.) Vancouver (+14)
3.) Chicago (+14)
4.) Detroit (+13)
5.) Minnesota (+10)
6.) Los Angeles (0)
7.) Phoenix (-2)
8.) Anaheim (-3)
9.) St.Louis (-5)
10.) Nashville (-5)
11.) Calgary (-6)
12.) Columbus (-7)
13.) Colorado (-8)
14.) Edmonton (-9)
15.) Dallas (-17) (!)
The Flames have the 5th best Win % in the WC (that's good!) but only the 11th best GD (that's bad). Meaning they can scrape out wins, but tend to lose BIG when they lose. The former has been occuring against the Colorados and Nashvilles of the world, while the latter happens against clubs like San Jose and Chicago.
I find this worrisome, based on the favorable schedule. For example, Edmonton's numbers seem ugly, but they have played 14 of their first 20 games on the road this season, with 12 of the games coming against play-off caliber teams. They've probably done pretty well considering their shitty circumstances
I suppose the good news is the club has been full value for their last two victories, convincingly out-chancing and out-playing the opposition both times. The bad news is, the opposition was the Colorado Avalanche, whom are one of the worst teams in the WC so far. Calgary doesn't see Coloado again till January, with the intervening weeks filled with tougher opponents.
Even strength
So far the clubs most glaring weakness (besides goaltending). The results are pretty much right in line with my expectations heading into the season: improved bottom 6 with a less effective top 6.
Firstly, let's establish that it's certainly not all bad.
The Flames are averaging more shots on net per game than their opponents and tend to spend more time in the good end of the rink. According to Vics app, Calgary is a net +194 by the corsi metric through the first 20.
Driving the difference are many of the Flames "support players": youngsters like Dustin Boyd (+44) and David Moss (+63) have certainly taken steps forward, while additions such as Bourque (+53), Glencross (+43) and Giordano (+129!) are contributing as well. Even Primeau (+43) and Nystrom (+23) aren't terrible this year, which is saying something.
A lot of Calgary's lesser lights have decent advanced stats as a result. Boyd and Bourque are above the 2.00 ESP/60 threshold, although Boyd is still getting outscored at ES (while he may be a cause of such a thing, the SV% behind him has been a ghastly 0.881. The teams SH% while he's on the ice, on other hand, is a more sustainable 8.7% - at some point, then, Boyd should climb out of the red). Mark Giordano's 1.76 ESP/60 rate is outstanding for a defenseman while both David Moss and Curtis Glencross are more efficient at ES than Langkow and Bertuzzi so far.
So, the bottom end of the roster isn't getting torched anymore. And none of the results are lucky by my eye. Glencross, Moss, Boyd etc. are all good to varying degrees at moving the puck forward and keeping it in the offensive zone. They've been beating the crap out of other 3rd lines and such, which is something that hasn't happened in Calgary for a long time.
On the other hand, the top of the roster isn't beating up on people like they did previously. Quite the opposite. Iginla and crew are largely under-performing and are the primary reason the team is -7 at 5on5 right now.
The problem starts with one Todd Bertuzzi. The big guy scored some goals out of the gate, but has fallen away recently. He floats a lot at ES, and tends to make questionable decisions all over the ice, especially with the puck on his stick. His ESP/60 rate is worse than many so-called checkers (1.09) despite the fact that he's enjoyed the best quality of teammates on the club (0.45) so far. That latter figure matches up with what I've seen: Bert has spent a lot of time with either Iginla or Langkow (or both) and Cammalleri. He's been given the cherry assignment and done next to nothing with it. Oh yeah, no other Flames forward gets outscored as much as Bertuzzi as well.
Not that he's alone in his struggles. Jarome Iginla, despite leading the team in scoring, has taken two or three steps back at ES relative to last year. His scoring rate is pedestrian (1.98) and he hasn't even faced the big boys with regularity. Of his 11 goals, 9 have come through special circumstance (3 EN, 6 PP) while only 2 have come at 5on5. And while he's currently 7th in the league in scoring overall, his 11 ES points tie him for 21st in the league in that regard. To put that in context, Bryan Little, Nik Antropov and Jason Chimera have more points at ES than Jarome. Likely with less ice-time.
Daymond Lankgow has a nice corsi figure (+66), but his advanced stats are fairly pedestrian too. Partially because he's seen some of the tougher competition more consistently and partially because he's spent a lot of time with Bertuzzi. Of the three, his numbers are probably the most encouraging, especially the GAON/60 figure of 1.38. Although, the SV% behind him has been ridiculous (0.943), so take that with a grain of salt. I mean, I like Langkow and I think he can drive results, but I dont think he can augment SV% like that single-handed.
Cammalleri might have the best ES stats of the Flames legit "top 6 forwards". His 1.99 ESP/60 is the best of the bunch and he's outscored the bad guys so far (unlike Jarome and Bert). The funny part is, Cammalleri has been relatively under-utilized by Keenan at evens: he's currently 11th on the team in terms of ES ice-time per game (11:29), behind the likes of Iginla, Bertuzzi, Langkow and Bourque. While his PP ice is decent (over 4 minutes a game), flipping Bertuzzis ES ice (14:27) with Cammalleri's would probably be a net win for the Flames going forward.
Overall the results cleave with what many of us saw coming this summer. I went on record saying I expected the Flames to be less apt at even-strength and that's what's happened. I have been surprised, however, with the degree of improvement from guys like Moss and Boyd as well as the degree of decline from someone like Iginla. In the long-term, I expect Jarome to get back on track because he's simply to good to struggle to this degree forever. He currently looks like a periphery player on most nights to me: one who has trouble handling the puck in traffic (especially away from the boards) and making decisions in the neutral zone. He seems like a man aware of his futility and trying to fabricate a solution by playing outside of his typical skill-set. At some point he'll settle down, although a move away from Sore Thumb would probably help things along*. It's my hope that the return of Lombardi will shake Bert lose from the Iginla in some way, but I guess we'll see...
*(player #99 in the team-wide corsi/SV% link above is Jarome+Bertuzzi. Notice "he" has one of the worst corsi numbers on the team and lousy SV% and SH% besides. That experiment needs to end).
Special Teams
While extra curricular stuff is often harder to predict, some of the stuff I looked at in the off-season suggested the Flames would likely improve a man up or down this year.
So far, so good. Both the PP and PK are middling right now (19%, 81.6%) which is an improvement over last season. The PP was actually top ten for awhile before the recent cold snap. Bertuzzi, Iginla and Cammalleri aren't doing much at ES, but have made gotten some results 5on4, with all of them around 5 PPP/60 or better. One thing that needs to change going forward is the deployment of Adrian Aucoin on the primary PP unit. Shinpad has averaged more than 4 minutes a night, usually with guys like Phaneuf and Iginla, and his scoring rate is an abysmal 1.40 PPP/60. That's right - lower than Giordano's ESP/60 number.
Aucoin's problem are:
a.) He shoots pucks into blocks. A lot.
b.) He's not very mobile and only moderately able to keep pucks in/pinch.
c.) He's a gross liability if a capable PKer gets a step on him.
Giordano's rate is worse (0.96) but that has a lot to do with getting secondary minutes at the tail end of the advantage and often playing with the second unit (ie; lesser linemates). Given his superior ES efficacy, I'd like to see Gio get more time on the big unit. At the very least, it will mean less break-aways/penalty-shots going the wrong way.
On the PK, the Flames are getting good efforts from Regehr, Vandermeer, Primeau and - surprisingly - Dustin Boyd. His GAON/60 ate of 5.22 is second in terms of forwards to Prmeaus 3.89 (I know...I can't believe those numbers either). It'll be interesting to see if Boyd's regular PK duty continues when Lombardi returns.
One thing the Flames haven't done so far is reduce penalties against. Calgary has been short handed 98 times in 20 games this year, tied for 3rd in the league behind only Vancouver and Anaheim. As a result, their 15th ranked PK has actually surrendered the 6th most goals in the league (18), thanks to spending so much time in the box. If Calgary were down around the mean in terms of times short handed (87), they would have allowed 2 less goals against, assuming a constant 81.6% efficiency rate on the PK. Doesn't sound like much, but that's about 8 goals over the course of the entire year. Plus, keep in mind killing penalties not only increases the chances of a goal against, it suppresses offense as well.
So who's taking the penalties? So far, Adam Pardy (2.7), Craig Conroy (2.1), Corey Sarich (1.8), Curtis Glencross (1.7) and Todd Bertuzzi (1.7) are the leaders in terms of PN/60. Pardy is a kid and learning the ropes, Conroy will improve if he stays on the 3rd line, Sarich was the same last year (expect no improvement) and Bertuzzi does stupid shit and doesn't get the benefit of the doubt from the refs.
There are some guys drawing more penalties than they take, however. Cammalleri has the best differential (0.6 against, 2.3 for) with Iginla and Dustin Boyd right behind him. At least Jarome is getting SOMETHING done at ES.
Shot-blocking
Yup, Im still talking about this. In fact, some other, smarter people have started looking at this stuff too.
The Contrarian goaltender has a post on shots against, followed up by JLikens at the newly arrived Objective NHL blog. The latter looks specifically at the issue of shot blocking and it's effect on SV%.
Basically, it looks like shot-blocking and SV% are negatively correlated - meaning more blocks, smaller SV%. This could because of the potentially negative effects of blocking shots (deflections, screening, taking defensive players out of the play) or due simply to reducing the volume of shots on net (or a combination). The relationship isn't particularly strong, but it's persistently negative. The issue remains unsettled, clearly.
Anyways, forgetting all that for now, how are the Flames doing?
Calgary is currently 26th in the league in terms of blocked shots (90) ahead of only NYR, NJD, SJS and LAK. That's an average of about 4.5 BLK/game. Calgary's SA/G is 12th best in the league, at 29.6, meaning the club only manages to block about 13% (4.5/29.6 + 4.5) of the shots directed at the net per night. That's a fairly paltry number and difficult to excuse due to their 22nd ranked 3.15 GA/G rate.
Course, we still dont even know if blocking shots is a net benefit, so maybe Keenan's on to something?
Goaltending
Horrid to start...but getting...better? That's been the pattern the last few years, so perhaps it'll continue.
Kiprusoff still languishes near the leagues basement, but has had interludes of quality play now and then. The organizations reluctance to play MceLhinney is both ridiculous and baffling and needs to be given the heave-ho going forward. The kid just isn't that bad and playing Kipper into the ground isn't a viable strategy. Not only because it potentially harms the man, but it stunts the kids development as well.
Summary
Im happy with some things, particularly the zone time and the development of guys like Boyd, Moss, Giordano and Bourque, especially at ES. I think the special teams are better and may even be in line for further improvement, especially if the team can ratchet up the discipline.
The future success of the squad will depend on Kipper and Iginla improving, however. Calgary is above .500 currently, but the road gets a lot bumpier here pretty soon and they wont have the Avs and Preds to beat up on all season. Without a competent starter and a top line that's a legitimate threat, the efforts of the support players will only take the Flames so far.
