Monday, November 24, 2008

What to do with this Matthew Lombardi?

Now that Lombo has returned, probably the biggest question in Flames land is what will happen to the line combinations.

Some have worked. Some haven't. The problem is that Lombardi is a tweener who can't be confidently inserted into any particular role on the club. He could play in the top 6, but that would usurp either Langkow or Boyd. He could play on the third line, bumping Keenan favorite Conroy down. Or, he could play on the 4th line with Primeau and Nystrom (again) although I think all reasonable people can agree that would be a total waste.

The main onion in the ointment is the rapid development of Dustin Boyd. The kid has taken some sizable steps forward this season and is challenging for an expanded role. He has 7 ES points in 20 games; as many as Langkow and more than Todd Bertuzzi, despite less ice time and ostensibly inferior linemates. His ESG/60 rate is the best on the team (1.45) and his ESP number is third behind David Moss a Rene Bourque.

Boyd isn't really ready to take on the big boys since he still gets scored on a fair amount, but the arrows are certainly pointing in the right direction. Like Lombardi, Boyd would be wasted plugging along on the 4th line.

The other problem is, Keenan is still battling to cobble together a trio in the top 6 that can score against tough competition. The Iginla/Bertuzzi coupling is an unabashed failure and needs to be scrapped. Unfortunately, Lombardi's addition doesn't necessarily solve this problem - it just moves the pieces around.

That said, here's what I'd like to see going forward:

Bourque-Langkow-Iginla

This line should be able to do damage against anyone. Bourque has cement mits, but it's tough to argue that he hasn't been effective given his team high ESP/60 rate against top notch opposition and his 1.79 GA/60 figure.

Cammalleri-Boyd-Bertuzzi

This line should be reserved for offensive zone draws and soft competition. What we've learned so far about Bertuzzi is he has some soft hands, bad habits, floats a lot and takes stupid penalties. He'll need some extreme sheltering to get anything done at ES.

Glencross-Lombardi-Moss

Glencross and Moss have been good to very good so far this year. With Lombardi, this trio should not only be fast but capable at both ends of the ice.

Nystrom-Conroy-Primeau

Lots of stonehands on the 4th line, but it's not one that makes me nervous. Conroy has looked pretty good since being dropped from the top 6, so he still has something to give. Primeau and Nystrom have also been quantum leaps better than they were last year, although it's unlikely they'll ever outscore anyone. Still, this unit could should be able to play 10 minutes a night and minimize the damage.

One could probably swap Lombardi and Boyd in my hypothetical configuration without much problem, although I prefer the Lombo-centered third line because I trust him more in the defensive end and I'd prefer that unit to be able to take on just about anyone. I assume that whatever line Bertuzzi is on will have to get cherry assignments not to be under water, so Boyd might as well get a piece of the easy tail. If you wanted to argue that pairing Boyd with Bertuzzi is doubling up the liabilities on a single line, I'd be inclined to listen, but it also means you're sheltering one line, not two, when you sequester the problems together on a single unit.

What will probably happen:

Sore Thumb-Langkow-Iginla
Cammalleri-Boyd/Lombardi-Bourque
Glencross-Conroy-Moss
Nystrom/Prust-Boyd/Lombardi-Primeau

Be prepared to see one or both of Boyd and Lombardi jump around the line-up while Sore Thumb continues to tie a strong yet (apparently) invisible garrote wire of suck around Jarome Iginla's unfortunate neck.