Stanley Cup Finals Prediction 2010!

The Chicago Blackhawks will win.

Down to the Semis - Picking Winners 2010

The wacky East keeps making me look like a fool while the steady West, a genius. So after going 0 for 2 and 2 for 2, here are my picks for the East and West finals.

East

MTL vs PHI

I don't know why I bother, but I'm going to pick against the Canadiens again. Nothing I've seen out of them makes me think they're good enough to sustain this level of finishing/stopping, although I said the same thing about the Avs in the regular season and they stuck around for months, so who knows.

It's also immensely ironic to see the Flyers make it to the third round (in history making fashion, no less) with the likes of Michael Leighton and Brian Boucher in net. Obviously the Habs have the edge in goal with Halak playing out of his mind, but that's been true of Flyers other two opponents and it hasn't mattered much*.

Philadelphia in 7

*related - Aside from Halak, none of the NHL's top goalies made it into the third round. Rask, Brodeur, Kipper, Hiller, Lundqvist, Anderson, Miller, Luongo, Bryzgalov...all done for the year.

West

CHI vs SJS

The winner of this series will be the unofficial champion before the finals even start in my opinion. Both are quality teams with Chicago having the edge in depth at both forward and defense. As such, I'm picking them to win both this round and the finals over whatever sucker makes it out of the East.

Chicago in 6.

Second Round Predictions, 2010

I know, I know...why bother, when I got almost the entire Eastern Conference wrong? Well, because I went 4-4 in the West, you smarmy git (as the British would say).

East

PIT vs MTL

The Canadiens are the worst team left in the playoffs. Their upset of the Capitals was remarkable...in that is was incredibly lucky and little else. Only COL got outshot more in the first round. So unless Halak continues to post a .940 SV%, there's little chance the Habs make it out of the second round, even if the Penguins aren't quite as good as the Capitals.

Pittsburgh in 5

PHI vs BOS

Not a lot to choose from between these two teams, especially when the Flyers supposed weak spot (Brian Boucher) wasn't a weak spot at all in round 1. That said, the Flyers lost Carter and Gagne while the Bruins gained Savard. That likely tips the scales in Boston's favor.

BOS in 7

West

SJS vs DET

Really tough choice here. Flip a coin. I think Detroit might actually be the better team from top-to-bottom, but there's not a lot of separation here. It may just depend on whether who out of Nabakov or Howard is less mediocre. For now, I'll go...

SJS in 6.

CHI vs VAN

The Blackhawks looked mortal in the first couple of games of the Nashville series, but slowly started to take things over as the games progressed. I still think they're the best team in the league (even with Niemi in net) and should be able to take the Canucks down. Again.

CHI in 6.

2010 Playoff Prognostications

Picking winners in the post-season is a fools errand because almost anything can happen in a 7 game series. Of course, that never stops any of us now does it?

East

MTL vs WAS

I regard the Canadiens as one of the weakest clubs in the playoffs this year. Goaltending and their perennially hot PP kept them above the water line, but just barely. They have a terrible shot differential and extremely lackluster forward depth. They suffered through some health issues which likely put a dent in the underlying numbers, but even healthy I can't see them beating the Caps (unless Theodore blows up completely).

Washington in 5.

NJD vs PHI

The Devils were somewhat mediocre after the Olympic break, while the Flyers were somewhat mediocre all year, although a think a large measure of Philadelphia's problems were percentage-based (ie; luck) and the lack of a true starting goalie. So while I think this could have been a good series had PHI been starting, say, Emery, there's little chance that Boucher out-duels Broduer.

NJD in 6.

BOS vs BUF

The Bruins came back down to earth despite the fact that Tuuka Rask became a legit goalie this year. The Sabres, probably the best team not to make the dance last year, deserve to be where they are (although I wouldn't bet on Miller reproducing this season next year). Without Savard in the line-up, I don't give Boston much hope in this one.

BUF in 6.

PIT vs OTT

The Senators don't impress me at all. They rode a very fortunate winning streak to their current position, but have been fairly unimpressive otherwise. Their goaltending is crap, their forward and defensive depth is "meh" and they'll be facing two of the best forwards on the planet in the first round.

No way they advance.

Pittsburgh in 5.

WEST

SJS vs COL

I think both clubs are relatively lucky to be in the position they're in: San Jose to win the division and Colorado to make the playoffs. That said, the Sharks are the better team from tip to stern. Unless the bounces start favoring the Avs again (with extreme prejudice) the Cinderella story ends here.

SJS in 6.

CHI vs NSH

It's remarkable the Predators are in the playoffs at all given their line-up and budget restraints. That said, the Blackhawks are the WC juggernauts (despite their goaltending issues) and I expect them to roll over the Preds in short order.

Chicago in 4.

VCR vs LAK

This could be the most contentious first round match-up. I like aspects of both teams, including the top 6 forward depth for both. However, both also have their holes (Canucks bottom end of the roster, injuries to the blueline...Kings goaltending and medicore defensive depth) so there's no clear winner here. If Luongo can't get back on the horse, the Canucks are in trouble. However, an elite Luongo can also probably be the difference.

Vancouver in 7.

DET vs PHX

The Coyotes won a lot of shoot-outs this year (14!), so their point total is no doubt inflated. That said, they have pretty decent underlying stats across the board so they aren't pretenders like, say, the Ottawa Senators. I think almost any other match-up would have been more favorable for them however. The Red Wings are finally healthy and the percentages have swung back into their favor (after struggling under the weight of the bounces for most of the first half). Datsyuk, Zetterberg and Franzen are still outstanding and there's just no response for that level of skill on the Coyotes side. I'll be cheering for the Desert Dogs in this one, but I wouldn't put money on them.

DET in 6.

Finals forecast

It's down to the rematch I see.

Both excellent teams this year, with Pittsburgh being a lot closer than they were previously. They don't have Hossa, but the whole club has improved leaps and bounds under Bylsma. If the puck bounces right or if the injuries favor them, they could be on the winning side this time.

That said, I still prefer Detroit. They have superior depth and have looked basically untouchable through the entire post season. Assuming Dastyuk and Lidstrom aren't out long term, I think they take it in 7.

Is there a more spoiled fan base in all sports than Red Wings supporters? I honestly don't think so.

Round 3

Im a bit late and my predictions thus far have been *ahem* a little off, but why watch the post season if you can't be wrong about who's going to win?

DET vs. CHI

Im nothing but impressed with the Blackhawks thus far. That said, they're playing the team they can only hope they grow into. Detroit has looked every bit the Stanley Cup champion in these play-offs and I fully expect them to make the finals again. CHI has the upper hand in net, but so did CBJ and ANA.

Wings in 6.

PIT vs. CAR

The Canes have really messed up my predictions this year. I thought they were a better team than they showed during the regular season (their percentages were crap for a long time) but I honestly don't know how they've gotten to this point.

The Penguins on the other hand beat the crap out of the Capitals, which is no small feat. The turn around under Bylsma is a real one, making the Pens a legit contender.

Pits in 7.

Whatever the outcome, I expect whoever comes out of the West to beat whoever comes out of the east this year; neither EC club has the sort of forward or defensive depth boasted by Chicago or Detroit. It'll take a run of injuries or a great run of bounces to deliver the cup to the East this season methinks.

I should leave it to the wheel spinning Monkey

I was going to do a rudimentary run through of my largely inaccurate first round predictions (en route to delivering what will be my inaccurate second round predictions), but a reader emailed me a much more thorough and interesting spreadsheet yesterday.



This is a "prediction scorecard" comparing various local media guys, including Dowbiggen, Kerr, myself, etc. As you can see, I didn't fare all that well. The only series I nailed was, appropriately enough, Flames/Hawks. My worst call was the CBJ/DET series, obviously, an error made because I was overly influenced by the Flames final games against those two teams I think: in the final match versus DET, the Flames cruised to a victory thanks to horrendous goaltending by Osgood. In the other, Calgary was fundamentally dominated by the Jackets and lost 4-0 (it could have been 8-0).

Anyways, on to the second round! Please don't use these picks to gamble...

WC

DET v ANA

The Red Wings overwhelmed the Blue Jackets and Osgood held up through the first three games. However, Hiller has been excellent this year and was one of the primary reasons the Ducks upset the Sharks. Clearly, ANA doesn't have the kind of depth that can compete with DET, but their first line is excellent and their top 4 defensemen are strong. All that said, I the Wings taught me a lesson about picking a much lower seed over them in the first round.

DET in 7.

VAN v CHI

Both clubs have impressed me thus far. The Blackhawks are a three line deep club and their top defensive pairing is top notch. On the other hand, Luongo has been out of his mind for a long period of time now, so the Canucks have an obvious edge in net. CHI won't be scoring 4 goals on 16 shots in this series. Also - the Sedins and Kesler are legit.

VAN in 6.

EC

BOS v CAR

I don't know if anyone in the East can stop the Bruins. They've had the blessing of the hockey gods this year, as well as the leading Vezina candidate in net, an excellent coach and several lines of dangerous forwards. The Hurricanes did well to get past the Devils and Ward is the real deal these days, but...Boston is just too strong.

BOS in 6.

WAS v PIT

This might be the series to watch in round two. Malkin/Crosby versus Ovechkin/Semin. Four of the leagues best ES forwards during the regular season going head to head. With Varlamov giving the Caps competent goaltending, they don't really have a glaring weakness anymore. I certainly like their forward depth more than the Pens, whose scoring list goes something like this: Malkin, Crosby .............................Kunitz, Guerin, Staal. That said, the Penguins have been a different (better) team under Bylsma. Should be a close one.

WAS in 7.

EDIT - Oddly, I'm doing well in my amateurs vs pros (The Score talking heads) pick 'em pool after round one. Leader Hockey Jackass has the scoreboard here (I sat tied for 2nd as of yesterday, although the Devils loss probably hurt me).

I got your predictions right here.

The match-ups are set and the real season begins on Wednesday. That of course means a totally meaningless prediction post!

WC

SJS - ANA

This should be an interesting series. San Jose was obviously the better team through most of the season, but the Ducks have really started to come on lately. The Sharks have the greater depth, but I might take Perry/Getzlaf/Ryan as the strongest single trio out of any of the forward groups. And Hiller might be the better goalie.

That said, it's hard to argue against the Presidents Trophy winners. They were the top team in the league for a reason.

Sharks in 7.

DET - CBJ

Looks like a mis-match, no doubt, but I think the Red Wings would have liked to avoid Columbus in the first round. Detroit is exploitable because of their goaltending and the BJ's Hickcockian coaching strategy might be able to take advantage.

Columbus in 7.

VCR - STL

Flames fans...take a look at the favorable first round match-up your team pissed away. Not to take anything away from the Blues - their run and subsequent placing in the WC is remarkable - but they are probably the weakest team in a play-off position. Partially because they're so young, partially because of their injury issues and partially because their run was predicated on goaltending and bounces. One loss against the Edmonton Oilers turned a first round series with home ice advantage versus the St. Louis Blues into an away series versus the Chicago Blackhawks.

Yes, the regular season matters.

Vancouver in 5

CHI - CGY

Im obviously going to be writing a bunch more on this series in the next few days. Let's just say, the Flames record against CHI and their performance the last few weeks has been...disquieting.

Chicago in 6.

EC

BOS - MTL

Boston is a quality team that has been smiled upon by the hockey gods all year. Tim Thomas has been out of his mind good and everyone from Krejci to Ryder has had a career year up front. Montreal, on the other hand, came back down to earth after being the chosen club last season. Cary Price has looked like a vulnerable kid more often than not this year and Andrei Markov actually led the team in scoring for a large portion of the season. And now he's injured.

Boston in 6.

WAS - NYR

If the Capitals had someone even slightly better than Jose Theodore in net, they would be juggernauts. Ovechkin, Semin, Green, Federov, Backstrom...they are effing scary.

And while the Rangers have Lundvist, I dont think it'll be enough. Mediocre back-end and not enough depth of fire power to take on the Capitals. I think this'll be a walk.

Washington in 5.

NJD - CAR

The Devils stumbled down the stretch while Carolina went on a tear, but it's hard not to like New Jersey in this one. I think they have superior forward depth and Parise is probably the best player in the series (although Staal isn't too far behind). Ward has finally arrived though, so if Brodeur continues to fade, Carolina could take this one. That's not something I'll bet on, though

New Jersey in 7.

PIT - PHI

This baby is going to be a war. Hard to choose between the two clubs too. I mean, the Penguins have Malkin, Crosby and Gonchar, but the Flyers have several capable forward lines (featuring Richards, Carter, Knuble, Briere, Gagne, Giroux...). Neither team has demonstrably superior goaltending over the other. Let's flip a coin.

Philly in 7.

Here's hoping I beat the damn TSN monkey.

Flames in San Jose - Game 1 Preview

It's the most wonderful time of year for a hockey fan (whose team has made the play-offs. Sorry Edmonton boosters). Infected with post-season excitement and inspired by Matt's optimism, here's some reasons I think the Flame could potentially take this series:

I like Jarome Iginla -

His 50 goals and 98 points were best in the Western Conference. Better than Datsyuk and Thornton, both of whom played on better squads with arguably better line-mates. He's an elite forward, top-notch Captain and proven play-off performer.

More to the point, I like Jarome more than Joe Thornton, the Sharks primary difference maker. I picked jumbo Joe in the first round of a play-off pool a couple years ago and as a result was motivated to watch him intently as the post-season progressed. I was left...unimpressed, to say the least. Unless the puck was deep in the offensive zone and the Sharks were on the PP, Joe was an underwhelming presence. He lolly-gagged around his own end and managed to look...bored I guess is the best way to describe it, more often than not. He wasn't overly urgent or physical and he caused way more turn-overs than goals with his low-percentage passes down low.

I like Miikka Kiprusoff -

I was tough on old Kipper this year, but he really started to get it together down the stretch. In fact, he was probably the primary reason the Flames won some games in February and March. If Kipper can be the man he was at the end of this season - and in the play-offs last year - he gives Calgary a legitimate chance to steal a couple of games.

I like Dion Phaneuf and Robyn Regehr -

Phaneuf took a few steps forward this year and is a legit Norris Candidate to some. His defensive game has improved and he's more than just a "big shot" on the point on the other end of the ice. He's the Flames best hitter, skater and passer from the back-end and he has a lot to prove this year considering his struggles in play-offs past.

Regehr, on the hand, isn't much of a threat to score. He is, however, still the best shut-down option on the team and gets the job done better than anyone else on the club in the defensive zone. If Reggies can avoid "Vancouver nights" and consistently suppress Joe Thornton's scoring levels, Calgary's probabilities for success improve greatly.

I like the improvement of the supporting players -

Lombardi, Yelle, Nilson and Primeau have all looked like guys that can actually contribute over the last 4 weeks or so, a change primarily spear-headed by Lombo. The fast-skating center really looks like he's taken the next step after flailing around in a rather tough situation for much of the season. He led all Calgary forwards in ice-time more than once in March despite rarely playing on the PP and has consistently been a threat to score or draw penalties over the last quarter of the season.

Fun Lombardi fact - he was a minus player in only 2 of his final 23 games. He had 3 goals and 6 points in the last 9 games of the year as well.

Tonight -

Lots of questions. Does Conroy go back with Nolan and Tanguay? Do they take on Thornton et al? Where does Lombardi play if so (probably with Primeau and Yelle I guess). Also, I noticed Eriksson with Aucoin in the third pairing during the last match against the Canucks - here's hoping Keenan sticks with that pairing so Wilson can't feast on a Phaneuf/Eriksson duo all night long.

Good news out of San Jose is that Christian Ehrhoff is injured and unavailable for game 1. the Sharks resultant top 4 is Campbell-Murray and McLaren-Rivet. Not terrible, but hardly fearsome. If Calgary can stay out of the box and get Jarome out as much as possible, he should be able to do some damage against those pairings.

Prediction - Not even gonna dare.

Go Flames!

Sharks perspectives here, here and here.

New and Old Predictions

Well, it's the end of the year and time to compare the actual results to what my hubritic prophecies in October. Let's take a look:

Wester Conference - predictions:

Detroit
San Jose
Colorado
Anaheim
Nashville
Calgary
Vancouver
Dallas
--------
Minnesota
LA
St. Louis
Edmonton
Columbus
Chicago
Phoenix

So I got 7 of the 8 play-off teams right and was damn close for Colorado and Calgary. The lower seeds got ugly, mainly because I failed to predict Edmonton's 15+ extra time victories, Phoenix being gifted Bryzer half way through the season and the extent to which LA would stink.

Eastern Conference Predictions:

Ottawa
NYR
Florida
Pittsburgh
Buffalo
NJD
Atlanta
Toronto
--------
Tampa Bay
Carolina
Philadelphia
Montreal
Boston
NYI
Washington

Whew boy is that ever ugly. Florida AND Atlanta to make the post-season? What was I thinking? I dont think I got a single one of these right.

With my gross incompetence in the field of prognostication in mind, here are my first-round expectations:

West -

DET VS. NSH

The Preds are the cheapest roster to make the play-offs this year, coming in at just over $35M. They overcame a lot of adversity this year (ownership squabbles, selling off of big contracts in the off-season, Chris Mason taking a giant step backwards) and it's a minor miracle that they made the dance at all.

Detroit, on the other hand, were far and away the best team in the league in just about every conceivable way. Their only vulnerability may be goaltending - but it's one shared by Nashville. And yes, I know Dan Ellis has one of the best SV% in the league...but, given his limited experience and the relatively small sample size, I dont buy it.

Red Wings in 5

SJS VS. CGY

See my thoughts below. Flames have a lot of big guns, but a lot of major weaknesses as well. Their faults line-up quite nicely with the Sharks srengths...if you're a SJS fan. Unless Kipper becomes godlike and the Flames suddenly discover the discipline that eluded them all year, this one goes to San Jose.

Sharks in 6

MIN VS. COL

This is a tough series to call. Minnesota ended up being the "better" team over the course of the year, but the Avs added a lot of major pieces at the deadline and suffered from a ton of injuries throughout the season. Smyth, Sakic, Statsny, Forsberg and Foote make this a very different squad than the one that competed most nights up until March or so.

The Wild have nice players in Burns and Gaborik and a lot of muscle, but I can't see them competing in a 7 game series against the Avs superior depth. If Theodore can be as good as Backstom, which isn't a ludicrous claim at this point, Colorado takes this one.

Avalanche in 7.

DAL VS. ANA

Dallas was one of the best teams in the league before the Brad Richards induced nose-dive. Of course, they were also one of the luckiest teams in the league up until then in my estimation. In contrast, Anaheim went the other way after the addition of guys like Selanne and Niedermayer mid-season, though they still can't seem to score much.

Hmm...let's see...Turco, Ribeiro and no-Zubov versus Giguere, Selanne and Niedermayer/Pronger. No contest.

Ducks in 5

East -

MON VS. BOS

Montreal isn't a great ES team still, but their PP remains formidable (somehow). Boston, on the other hand, is the only play-off bound team to have a negative GD. I wouldn't bet on the Habs making hay against the stiffer competition in the later rounds...but I also wouldn't bet on Boston beating any play-off team in any series. Assuming Carey Price is as cool in the post-season as he was previously, Montreal should take this one.

Canadiens in 5.

PIT VS. OTT

What the hell happened to the Sens? They stepped right in an elevator shaft after their hot start and have been worse than mediocre since. On the other hand, the Penguins proved they were for real by excelling despite long-term injuries to Sidney Crosby and MA Fleury. The mis-match from last year's first round has flip-flopped completely.

Penguins in 6.

WSH VS. PHI

The Capitals are my sleeper pick this year. Since Boudreau took over, they've been on something like a 107 point pace - and they only just picked up a competent starting goaltender at the trade deadline. They have far and away the best player on the planet currently and a couple of nice complimentary pieces (Backstrom, Federov, Laich, Semin, Green, Poti).

As for the Flyers...I dont have much faith in them. They were routinely out-shot and out-played this season, but survived thanks to some remarkable (and probably unsustainable) performances from guys like Richards, Lupul and Biron. With Briere being a crater at ES and the club lacking Simon Gagne, I dont see Philly making it too far.

Capitals in 7.

NJD VS. NYR

This is the toughest series to call for me. Both teams have stellar goaltending and neither of scores all that much. The Rangers have the better forward roster on paper, but have been afflicted with one of the worst team-wide shooting percentages all season. For their part, the Devils are excellent defensively, as usual, but their blueline quality and depth leaves a lot to be desired (again, on paper).

I think this one comes down to bounces and injuries, so Im going to go with pure gut feel.

Rangers in 7.

First Round Preview

I was solicited by Pensblog to provide a play-off preview for the Flames/Sharks series. Im too lazy to do it twice, so here's what Im sending to the boys in Pittsburgh:

Calgary Flames versus San Jose Sharks

This is a mis-match of Biblical proportions. Pure David versus Goliath. Except rather than wielding a stone and a sling-shot, David (Calgary) is instead armed with little more than an attitude and a rapidly melting blob of cherry jello.

Qualitatively speaking, the Sharks are a bigger, faster and younger team than the Flames. They have a less physical but more mobile defense that lacks a big-time difference maker like Phaneuf, but is far more solid from 1 to 6 than Calgary's hodge-podge back-end. While a couple of San Jose's forwards had relatively disappointing regular seasons (Marleau, Cheechoo), one has to admit their depth and quality up-front also exceeds that of the Flame's, who have a few big guns and a lot of dead-weight otherwise.

Quantitatively speaking, the Sharks are a superior team in terms of just about every metric you can think of: they have the best PK in the league (85.8%) and the 8th best PP (18.8%). They also have the 2nd best GD (goal differential) in the Western Conference (+29). In contrast, the Flames special teams both lurk near the bottom third of the NHL (PP - 16.8% - 20th, PK - 81.4% - 20th) and they have the second lowest GD of all the play-off bound teams (+2), ahead of only the Boston Bruins. It's worth noting that Calgary had a negative GD until the 7-1 shellacking of a demoralized Vancouver Canuck squad in the final game of the year...

Just to add to the ill-tidings, San Jose was objectively the best team around by a fair margin during the final quarter of the season: they gathered 38 of a possible 42 points and scored 25 more goals than they gave up. On the other hand, Calgary limped it's way into the post-season, garnering 26 points out of a possible 42, with a median +5 GD, despite what many would call a decidedly soft schedule down the stretch.

Is there any good news?

It's considered sacrilege in some corners of sports fandom to speak ill of your chosen squad. So, for those who favor *Cheerleader!* flavored sentiment, here's my best effort at putting a silver lining on this rather dark cloud.

Just about the only measure that sees the Flames come out on top is GF - Calgary scored 7 more goals than the San Jose this season. Although the Sharks were a better PP team, the difference is made up by Calgary's superior ES (even-strength) prowess: Flames were actually the 12th best team at scoring 5on5 this year (145) while the Sharks weren't quite so adept, managing just 131 ES goals (20th). The difference between ES goals for and goals against for each team was actually quite similar (+9 for the Sharks, +10 for the Flames) again with a slight edge going to Calgary.

Clearly, the Flames primary strategy going into round one should be to take as few penalties as possible. The more time the teams spend at 5on5, the better Calgary's chances of success.

Aside from that, Flames fans can only hope that their team can fashion another Cinderella run similar to their march to the finals in 03-04. While the team managed just middling results during the regular season, Calgary does have a number of difference makers that are capable of single-handedly dominating games and snatching victories from the jaws of defeat: Jarome Iginla (50 goals, 98 points, top scorer in the Western Conference), Dion Phaneuf (17 goals, 60 points, potential Norris candidate) and Miikka Kiprusoff (lack luster stats, but probably the best Flame over the final 20 or 30 games). In fact, all three were major reasons why Calgary ended up winning the season series versus the Sharks this year* (3-1). So there's at least some possibility of success if one or more of these guys gets hot.

*(the wet blanket fact - Calgary played played all their games against the Sharks before San Jose's big run in the final quarter of the season.)

Conclusion

There's hope, but it's slim hope at best. The Sharks enter the play-offs as probably the hottest team in the league and one the juggernauts of the Western Conference. The Flames, for their part, enter the post-season quietly and through the back door; their chances of victory resting on the small possibility the Goliath they face is allergic to cherry jello.

Ahh, What the Hell

Well, just because everyone else is doing it, I think I'll add my play-off predictions to the fray:

Eastern Conference:

Buffalo (1) versus NY Islanders (8) -

Buffalo is one of the best teams in the league. Any of their 4 lines can score, their defense is solid and mobile and they have good goaltending. In contrast, the Islanders are short on defensive depth, have an unknown goaltender whose name I can't pronounce and their captain is Alexei Yashin.

Buffalo in 5.

New Jersey (2) versus Tampa Bay (7) -

Not sure what to expect from this series. The Lightning have the best forwards, but they're horrible defensively. The Devils have the best goalie, but can't seem to score. I think St. Louis and Vinny are gamers, but it's not enough; Brodeur will out-duel the Holmqvist/Denis duo.

Devils in 6.

Atlanta (3) versus NY Rangers (6) -

Atlanta is probably the weakest division leader in the NHL. Their depth at all positions is highly suspect once you get past the one or two marquee players and their goaltending is just alright. Conversely, the Rangers were pretty damn good in the second half of the season, largely because Lundqvist regained his 05/06 form. With the addition of Cullen, Shanahan and Avery, NY isn't completely dependent on Jagr this year.

Rangers in 5.

Ottawa (4) versus Pittsburgh (5)

As Matt notes, the Sens have probably been the best team in the East for the last few months. Emery put up some impressive numbers after usurping Gerber and nearly everyone on their roster is capable of scoring a goal or 3. On the other hand you have too many rookies and not enough depth: Crosby, Malkin and company are great youngsters, to be sure, but they just ain't there yet. Fleury isn't better than Emery and I don't think the graybearded Roberts will make enough of a difference here.

Ottawa in 7.

Western Conference:

Detroit (1) versus Calgary (8) -

See post below.

Anaheim (2) versus Minnesota (7) -

The question here is: can Gaborik/Rolston/Demitra overcome the Pronger/Niedermayer advantage consistently enough to win a series? The answer is: I doubt it. Anaheim has good goaltending, superstar defensemen and the best PP scorer in the league in Selanne. The Wild will steal a couple, but the Ducks just have more difference makers in the end.

Anaheim in 6.

Vancouver (3) versus Dallas (6) -

Would you bet on a team whose top scorer was Mike Ribeiro and whose goalie was Marty Turco? Me neither. Dallas has done a remarkable job of sustaining a high level of play despite a lack of offensive depth and injuries during the year, but...they just can't score enough and Turco just isn't a play-off performer. Luongo hasn't been there before, but I've seen nothing that would make me doubt his ability to get the job done in the post-season. The Sedins are the real deal, too.

Vancouver in 7 (I feel so dirty).

Nashville (4) versus San Jose (5) -

Both of these teams scare me. As such, I think this'll be one of the best series to watch in the first round. Both clubs have two good goaltenders and both have fairly deadly attacks. I like the Predators defense more than the Sharks and I think Forsberg is a superior play-off performer as compared to Thornton. Assuming Peter the great can play, I like the Preds to take this one.

Nashville in 7.

Feel free to vehemently disagree with me in the comments.

Round One: Calgary Versus Detroit Preview

The Raw Team Data:

Calgary - 43-29-10 - 96 points, 3rd NWD, 8th WC.
Detroit - 50-19-13 - 113 points, 1st CEN, 1st WC.

Calgary - PP 18.2% (10th), PK 80.4% (22nd) - aggregate score 98.6
Detroit - PP 17.1% (21st), PK 84.6% (7th) - aggregate score 101.7

Calgary - GF 255 (7th), 153 ES, 14 SH. GA 221 (11th), 123 ES, 79 SH - GD 34
Detroit - GF 252 (10th), 153ES, 11SH. GA 191 (2nd), 104 ES, 63 SH - GD 61

Besides the glaring difference in record/points, these two teams look surprisingly evenly matched. Of course, thanks to the league's unbalanced schedules, comparing two teams across different divisions can be rather challenging - kinda like comparing grades across two vastly different grading curves. To stretch the analogy further, Detroit was an overcheiever in a class of special needs kids while the Flames were stuck in a room full of brainiacs (aside from the lone dork in the corner wearing a blue and orange dunce cap).

So, like last season, the Red Wings stats are skewed slightly by the "inflating confounder" that is the soft as butter central division. If it weren't for the Preds, and the total lack of quality teams in the SE division, the central could be irrefutably crowned the reigning King of the Sewer in the NHL. The Blackhawks, Blues and Blue Jackets managed just 83, 73 and and 71 points respectively, with goal differentials of -40, -48 and -57. Those are some terrible teams. As a result, Detroit's record against their divisional opponents this year was a ridiculous 22-4-6.

Conversely, the Flames were stuck in the ultra-competitive NW division, battling the likes of Vancouver (105 points, +21 GD), Minnesota (104 points, +44 GD) and Colorado (95 points, +21 GD). Even Edmonton was respectable before the post-Smythian meltdown.

So while Detroit feasted on the roadkill in their own division, they were a far more middling 9-6-5 (0.45 win percentage) against NWD opponents, while the Flames went 17-12-3 (0.53 win percentage) against their own division and 11-6-3 against Central opposition (0.55 win percentage). The latter record is despite the fact that the Nashville Predators are basically Flame retardant (7-1 against Calgary the last 2 seasons).

As such, Detroit's impressive win percentage and various other team metrics (like that big, fat, GD of +61) aren't quite the indicators of overwhelming superiority that they seem to be. Shooting fish in barrel tends to lead to high catch counts (but, perhaps, poor target practice...).

Of course, none of this means Detroit is necessarily a bad team either. They still got the job done, in dominating fashion, against the lame ducks. They allowed the fewest amount of shots against per game (24.6) and the fewest amount of ES goals against in the league (104). It's hard to say what these figures would look like for a Detroit squad sequestered in the NWD, but I think it's fair to say: still fairly good. I doubt the Flames numbers would be as impressive were they a Central squad, if only because of their Bubba-allergy.

Raw Player Data:

Calgary Flames leading scorers and basic+ stats:


Detroit Red Wings leading scorers and basic+ stats:

The Flames get the edge in terms of production rates at both ES and with the man-advantage. Sort of. Kristian Huselius is the most efficient PP producer for both squads at 6.34 PPP/60, standing nearly a full point better than Detroit's Henrik Zetterberg. Iginla and Tanguay had the best rates of production at ES between the two teams, although the difference between them and Pavol Datsyuk's rate (3.28 vs. 2.98) is close to negligible. Detroit does to seem to have the greater number of PP producers (5>4.00 vs. 4>4.00) excluding the likes of Bertuzzi and Warrener thanks to small sample size. Overall, though, there doesn't seem to be a huge difference between the two squads. But, as a Flames fan, it's nice to see Calgary's heavy-weights come out on top in both measures.

Detroit Analysis:

Detroit has dominated the regular season for 3 straight years and yet managed to capitulate to a lower seed in the post-season in each of those years. Anaheim, Calgary, Edmonton. 8th seed, 6th seed, 8th seed. Three 100+ seasons, 1 play-off series victory to show.

The problems for the Red Wings have been twofold: lackluster production from their big boys (Datsyuk in particular) and invariably meeting a goaltender that is hotter than the guy they have in net. While the latter issue has been (potentially) addressed with the addition Hasek, the former remains a pressing concern. Datsyuk, for example, has a post-season stats line that would make Joe Thornton or Marty Turco blush: in 363 regular season games, Datsyuk has managed 328 points (0.9 PPG) and a cumulative plus/minus rating of +84. In 42 post-season games, however, he's scored just 3 goals and 15 points (0.36 PPG) and a rating of -1. Ouch.

In addition, Henrik Zetterberg (who was actually one of the better Wings against the Oilers in 06) also has unimpressive play-off career numbers. His 0.86 PPG regular season pace plunges down to 0.50 in the post season, and the +76 he's accrued over 280 RS games falls to a -6 when the real stuff begins.

Other Issues:

Injury - Detroit currently has 2 top 6 forwards suffering from chronic ailments. Henrik Zetterberg and Todd Bertuzzi both missed significant time during the regular season but are rumored to be suiting up for the series opener. No one is sure just how "ready" they are, however. In addition, the Red Wings will most likely be without top 4 blueliner Niklas Kronvall for the majority of the post-season thanks to a nagging hip problem.

And while he isn't injured - yet - everyone knows Dominic Hasek has the potential to succumb to health issues at any time. Should his groin crumble, the Wings will have to lean on a mediocre Chris Osgood, which would probably spell doom for their play-off aspirations.

Strengths:

Detroit has developed into one of the best defensive clubs in the league. They play a smart, well-organized puck possession game that results in many shots for and few against. They have an old, but excellent goalie (who is still very effective when healthy) and the unflappable Niklas Lidstrom on the back-end. Lidstrom, in line for yet another Norris, will most likely see a lot of the Jarome Iginla and Alex Tanguay tandem during this series, which should worry most Flames fans: despite consistently seeing other club's best players throughout the year, Lidstrom led all NHL defensemen with a +40 (!) rating in the regular season. He's a first ballot hall-of-famer and he's still incredibly good.

Detroit also has decent, if not amazing, forward depth. After Datsyuk and Zetterberg, the Red Wings boast 30 goal scorer Thomas Holmstrom, a slower but still dangerous Robert Lang, a suddenly emergent Daniel Cleary as well as a reinvigorated Kyle Calder. I believe the duo of Kirk Malby and Kris Draper are still considered top-notch defensive forwards, meaning it won't just be Lidstrom capably shadowing Iginla's every move. Course, there's also the wild-card addition of Todd Bertuzzi to consider, assuming of course he's healthy AND actually shows up to play (both are in question at this point).

Flames Analysis:

A year after coming with a a goal-line of winning the Stanley Cup, the Flames fell with little more than a whimper to the Anaheim Ducks last year in the first round. To some, their decent if unimpressive showing during the regular season in 06/07 seemed to be an extension of that disappointment. Despite boasting arguably the best roster the Franchise has seen for years and being considered odds-on favorites to win the NW division, the Flames stumbled out of the gate in October and were mediocre during the 2nd half of the season. As a result, they barely scraped into the 8th seed in the west. Career-type seasons by Huselius, Langkow, Iginla, Tanguay and Lombardi were overshadowed by a team-wide propensity for defensive and neutral zone gaffes that reared it's ugly head all too frequently on the road and after February 1st.

Calgary's primary issues include: a bottom 10 PK, baffling inconsistency and terrible road performances. The penalty kill has been a sore spot all year, made less sensible by the fact the Flames have an impressive blueline, decent defensive forwards in Conroy, Yelle, Nilson and Friesen and a top 5 goalie. One would expect that combination to yield at least a middling PK rate...but it wasn't so.

Inconsistency and poor road play went hand-in-hand for Calgary this year. The Flames set a Franchise record with a 10 game winning streak in the Dome, only to stumble to a laughable 13-20-8 as the visitor by season's end. Whether it was due to some impenetrable mental block or simply being out-coached, the Flames went from heros to zeros almost invariably when wearing road white. In order to have any hope of play-off success at all, the Flames will have to banish that regrettable tendency pretty much immediately.

Other Issues:

Injury: Calgary's top defenseman Robyn Regehr was hurt in the 3rd last game of the season and is currently considered "day-to-day" with a leg injury. It is unknown whether he will play on Thursday, though the rumble is he won't miss much more than a game or two at worst. Regehr and his partner Brad Stuart will be given the task of shutting down Datsyuk/Zetterberg, so his absence will be a glaring one should he remain out of the line-up for any length of time.

Of course, the Flames play-off hopes would be completely extinguished should Kipper go down with an injury. With all apologies to Noodles, it is an unavoidable truth that the Flames fortunes are inexorably tied to Kiprusoff's limber frame.

Strengths:

For the first time in recent memory, the Flames have depth at both the offensive and defensive positions. The forwards are led by Jarome Iginla, whose 1.34 PPG pace was behind only Sidney Crosby (1.52) and Joe Thornton (1.39). After Iginla, Alex Tanguay scored a career high 81 points for the Flames, and was tied for 7th in the league in terms of ESP. The emergence of Kristian Huselius (34 goals, 77 points) and Damond Langkow (33 goals, 77 points) as legitimate offensive threats gives the Flames a relatively decent arsenal up front.

The Flames also have a mirror to the Maltby/Draper combination in the suddenly capable Yelle/Nilson/Friesen trio. It took most of the season, but evidence from the final 4 weeks of the year suggests that Calgary finally has a decent shut-down line.

On the back-end, the Flames have a solid top 4 collection including the aforementioned Stuart/Regehr pairing as well as Phanuef/Hamrlik. Phaneuf had a tough last couple of weeks, and a terrible play-offs last year, so it remains to be seen if he can step up in the post-season this year. Warrener, Hale, Zyuzin and Giordano round the bottom 5-8. I'd suggest Warrener and Hale will be the default bottom pairing, with the others drawing in as injuries dictate.

Keys to victory for Calgary:

Detroit and Calgary are remarkably well-matched, despite their disparate positions in the standings. Both can score and defend. Neither has really good special teams. The Red Wings seem to have more injury concerns, while the Flames have consistency issues. Calgary has the bigger guns (with better play-off track records) in Iginla and Tanguay, but the Red Wings have the league's best neutralizer in Lidstrom. For Calgary to win this series they'll have to:

1.) Shut-down Datsyuk and Zetterberg. Which, as demonstrated, seems doable. Today's Calgary Herald has some suggestions for the Flames in that regard.

2.) Get secondary scoring. Lidstrom et al. are going to draped all over Iginla for the majority of the series, especially on the road. Guys like Huselius, Langkow and Lombardi will have to contribute in order for the Flames to generate enough shots and score enough goals to win.

3.) Stay disciplined. The penchant for turning over the puck at their own blueline was one of the Flames most glaring vices whenever they were struggling. Matching Detroit's smart defensive play will be a must.

4.) Competent Road Performances. As mentioned, this will be a brief post-season if the Flames can't elevate their play in the JLA.

In conclusion, I think the Flames have a good chance to pull off an upset, assuming, of course, Nervous Jimmy can mold them into a cohesive unit. Detroit is a good team - but not 1st seed good. Their marshmallow division has once again set them up for a precipitous fall, methinks. In addition, their injury concerns may be the tipping point in a closely battled series.

Homer Prediction: Flames in 7.