I was solicited by Pensblog to provide a play-off preview for the Flames/Sharks series. Im too lazy to do it twice, so here's what Im sending to the boys in Pittsburgh:
Calgary Flames versus San Jose Sharks
This is a mis-match of Biblical proportions. Pure David versus Goliath. Except rather than wielding a stone and a sling-shot, David (Calgary) is instead armed with little more than an attitude and a rapidly melting blob of cherry jello.
Qualitatively speaking, the Sharks are a bigger, faster and younger team than the Flames. They have a less physical but more mobile defense that lacks a big-time difference maker like Phaneuf, but is far more solid from 1 to 6 than Calgary's hodge-podge back-end. While a couple of San Jose's forwards had relatively disappointing regular seasons (Marleau, Cheechoo), one has to admit their depth and quality up-front also exceeds that of the Flame's, who have a few big guns and a lot of dead-weight otherwise.
Quantitatively speaking, the Sharks are a superior team in terms of just about every metric you can think of: they have the best PK in the league (85.8%) and the 8th best PP (18.8%). They also have the 2nd best GD (goal differential) in the Western Conference (+29). In contrast, the Flames special teams both lurk near the bottom third of the NHL (PP - 16.8% - 20th, PK - 81.4% - 20th) and they have the second lowest GD of all the play-off bound teams (+2), ahead of only the Boston Bruins. It's worth noting that Calgary had a negative GD until the 7-1 shellacking of a demoralized Vancouver Canuck squad in the final game of the year...
Just to add to the ill-tidings, San Jose was objectively the best team around by a fair margin during the final quarter of the season: they gathered 38 of a possible 42 points and scored 25 more goals than they gave up. On the other hand, Calgary limped it's way into the post-season, garnering 26 points out of a possible 42, with a median +5 GD, despite what many would call a decidedly soft schedule down the stretch.
Is there any good news?
It's considered sacrilege in some corners of sports fandom to speak ill of your chosen squad. So, for those who favor *Cheerleader!* flavored sentiment, here's my best effort at putting a silver lining on this rather dark cloud.
Just about the only measure that sees the Flames come out on top is GF - Calgary scored 7 more goals than the San Jose this season. Although the Sharks were a better PP team, the difference is made up by Calgary's superior ES (even-strength) prowess: Flames were actually the 12th best team at scoring 5on5 this year (145) while the Sharks weren't quite so adept, managing just 131 ES goals (20th). The difference between ES goals for and goals against for each team was actually quite similar (+9 for the Sharks, +10 for the Flames) again with a slight edge going to Calgary.
Clearly, the Flames primary strategy going into round one should be to take as few penalties as possible. The more time the teams spend at 5on5, the better Calgary's chances of success.
Aside from that, Flames fans can only hope that their team can fashion another Cinderella run similar to their march to the finals in 03-04. While the team managed just middling results during the regular season, Calgary does have a number of difference makers that are capable of single-handedly dominating games and snatching victories from the jaws of defeat: Jarome Iginla (50 goals, 98 points, top scorer in the Western Conference), Dion Phaneuf (17 goals, 60 points, potential Norris candidate) and Miikka Kiprusoff (lack luster stats, but probably the best Flame over the final 20 or 30 games). In fact, all three were major reasons why Calgary ended up winning the season series versus the Sharks this year* (3-1). So there's at least some possibility of success if one or more of these guys gets hot.
*(the wet blanket fact - Calgary played played all their games against the Sharks before San Jose's big run in the final quarter of the season.)
Conclusion
There's hope, but it's slim hope at best. The Sharks enter the play-offs as probably the hottest team in the league and one the juggernauts of the Western Conference. The Flames, for their part, enter the post-season quietly and through the back door; their chances of victory resting on the small possibility the Goliath they face is allergic to cherry jello.
