Well, it's the end of the year and time to compare the actual results to what my hubritic prophecies in October. Let's take a look:
Wester Conference - predictions:
Detroit
San Jose
Colorado
Anaheim
Nashville
Calgary
Vancouver
Dallas
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Minnesota
LA
St. Louis
Edmonton
Columbus
Chicago
Phoenix
So I got 7 of the 8 play-off teams right and was damn close for Colorado and Calgary. The lower seeds got ugly, mainly because I failed to predict Edmonton's 15+ extra time victories, Phoenix being gifted Bryzer half way through the season and the extent to which LA would stink.
Eastern Conference Predictions:
Ottawa
NYR
Florida
Pittsburgh
Buffalo
NJD
Atlanta
Toronto
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Tampa Bay
Carolina
Philadelphia
Montreal
Boston
NYI
Washington
Whew boy is that ever ugly. Florida AND Atlanta to make the post-season? What was I thinking? I dont think I got a single one of these right.
With my gross incompetence in the field of prognostication in mind, here are my first-round expectations:
West -
DET VS. NSH
The Preds are the cheapest roster to make the play-offs this year, coming in at just over $35M. They overcame a lot of adversity this year (ownership squabbles, selling off of big contracts in the off-season, Chris Mason taking a giant step backwards) and it's a minor miracle that they made the dance at all.
Detroit, on the other hand, were far and away the best team in the league in just about every conceivable way. Their only vulnerability may be goaltending - but it's one shared by Nashville. And yes, I know Dan Ellis has one of the best SV% in the league...but, given his limited experience and the relatively small sample size, I dont buy it.
Red Wings in 5
SJS VS. CGY
See my thoughts below. Flames have a lot of big guns, but a lot of major weaknesses as well. Their faults line-up quite nicely with the Sharks srengths...if you're a SJS fan. Unless Kipper becomes godlike and the Flames suddenly discover the discipline that eluded them all year, this one goes to San Jose.
Sharks in 6
MIN VS. COL
This is a tough series to call. Minnesota ended up being the "better" team over the course of the year, but the Avs added a lot of major pieces at the deadline and suffered from a ton of injuries throughout the season. Smyth, Sakic, Statsny, Forsberg and Foote make this a very different squad than the one that competed most nights up until March or so.
The Wild have nice players in Burns and Gaborik and a lot of muscle, but I can't see them competing in a 7 game series against the Avs superior depth. If Theodore can be as good as Backstom, which isn't a ludicrous claim at this point, Colorado takes this one.
Avalanche in 7.
DAL VS. ANA
Dallas was one of the best teams in the league before the Brad Richards induced nose-dive. Of course, they were also one of the luckiest teams in the league up until then in my estimation. In contrast, Anaheim went the other way after the addition of guys like Selanne and Niedermayer mid-season, though they still can't seem to score much.
Hmm...let's see...Turco, Ribeiro and no-Zubov versus Giguere, Selanne and Niedermayer/Pronger. No contest.
Ducks in 5
East -
MON VS. BOS
Montreal isn't a great ES team still, but their PP remains formidable (somehow). Boston, on the other hand, is the only play-off bound team to have a negative GD. I wouldn't bet on the Habs making hay against the stiffer competition in the later rounds...but I also wouldn't bet on Boston beating any play-off team in any series. Assuming Carey Price is as cool in the post-season as he was previously, Montreal should take this one.
Canadiens in 5.
PIT VS. OTT
What the hell happened to the Sens? They stepped right in an elevator shaft after their hot start and have been worse than mediocre since. On the other hand, the Penguins proved they were for real by excelling despite long-term injuries to Sidney Crosby and MA Fleury. The mis-match from last year's first round has flip-flopped completely.
Penguins in 6.
WSH VS. PHI
The Capitals are my sleeper pick this year. Since Boudreau took over, they've been on something like a 107 point pace - and they only just picked up a competent starting goaltender at the trade deadline. They have far and away the best player on the planet currently and a couple of nice complimentary pieces (Backstrom, Federov, Laich, Semin, Green, Poti).
As for the Flyers...I dont have much faith in them. They were routinely out-shot and out-played this season, but survived thanks to some remarkable (and probably unsustainable) performances from guys like Richards, Lupul and Biron. With Briere being a crater at ES and the club lacking Simon Gagne, I dont see Philly making it too far.
Capitals in 7.
NJD VS. NYR
This is the toughest series to call for me. Both teams have stellar goaltending and neither of scores all that much. The Rangers have the better forward roster on paper, but have been afflicted with one of the worst team-wide shooting percentages all season. For their part, the Devils are excellent defensively, as usual, but their blueline quality and depth leaves a lot to be desired (again, on paper).
I think this one comes down to bounces and injuries, so Im going to go with pure gut feel.
Rangers in 7.
