Musings of Interest: Mark Giordano

A lot of virtual ink has been spilled over this seemingly minor, depth defenseman the last few seasons.

It's not only due to the contract dispute/flight to Russia thing though. Giordano is a genuinely interesting player, beyond the circumstances that have surrounded him the last couple seasons.

Matt sums up the notables in that last link above:

- Signed as an undrafted 20-year-old in the summer of 2004.

- Solid first pro year with the Lowell Lock Monsters (shared AHL affiliate with Carolina), 6-10-16 in 66GP.

- Stupendous second pro year (2005-06) with the Omaha Knights: 16-42-58 in 73GP to lead the team -- not defensemen, the whole team -- in scoring. Played 7 games with the Flames as an injury fill-in (1 assist), unfortunately timed so that he missed the AHL All-Star game.

- Made the big club out of training camp in 2006 (nominally as the #7 Dman). All accounts were that it was entirely deserved, and that he was impressive (as opposed to, say, being the best of a mediocre lot and winning that #7 spot by default).

- Started the season in the lineup (The Warrener was hurt) playing 8-9 minutes a night. In Game 5 in front of friends and family in T.O., he scored 2 EV goals. Following that game, Warrener got back in the lineup and Giordano dressed twice in the next 5-1/2 weeks.

- For most of Nov/Dec/Jan, he dressed only when someone else was hurt. Starting in about February, he was occasionally inserted into the lineup instead of Andrea Susan on merit. At the deadline, the Flames added another guy to the mix by acquiring David Hale from the Devils.

- Playoffs: with Regehr injured, the top 5 were Stuart, Phaneuf, Hamrlik, Warrener, and Zyuzin, with Giordano and Hale as the options for the #6. Hale started games 1 & 2, and was beyond atrocious in G2, most notably in the form of spending the last 4 minutes of the game (when the Flames were down by 2) in the penalty box for stupid minors.

- Giordano got the call for G3, and justified his presence rather promptly. Using his trademark (and uncommon skill) wrist-shot-that-finds-the-net-through-traffic, he scored the tying goal in the 3rd period; Iginla scored the winner shortly thereafter and the Flames were back in the series. Giordano was in the lineup for the remainder of the series.

You can now append to that list the following:

- Played in the RSL as a 24 year old with Dynamo Moscow. Led the team's defenders in scoring the during the play-offs with 1 goal and 6 points in 9 games.

- Played for Canada's Spengler Cup winning team in 2007.

- Was chosen for Canada's World Championship club in 2008.

With the news that Gio has been paired with Dion Phaneuf throughout training camp, I couldn't help but think of Brian Rafalski as a potential comparison for the Flames prodigal son.

Consider that:

- Rafalski was a big time scorer in College hockey, managing 45 points in 43 games during his final year.
- Considered undersized, Rafalski was never drafted.
- He played several years overseas in the Swedish and Finnish Elite Leaugues. Eventually won acclaim and was signed as a 26 year old by the Devils.
- Scored 32 points in his rookie season.
- Led NJ's blueline in scoring the next season...

Now, obviously this is a very optimistic comparison given the kind of career Rafalski has been able to carve out for himself. Still some of the parallels are difficult to ignore: the obvious offensive proclivities, the lack of "ideal" NHL size, the big amateur numbers, the curious indifference of NHL scouts, the progression in *other* pro leagues besides the NHL.

By no means does this guarantee Giordano any kind of future success, but I find it interesting to have such an obvious modern comparable - meaning it's at least possible for a guy like Giordano to become an impact player at the NHL level.

Kyle adds his thoughts on Mr. Bean here.

Musings of Interest: Richie Regehr

Regehr the lesser isn't technically Flames property anymore, but it's likely he's still on the organizations radar screen.

The 25 year-old bother of Robyn Regehr bolted for the DEL (German League) last summer when it was clear that the Flames weren't going to offer him a new contract.

Sutter gets a pass on this one. Despite being an AHL all-star and seeing a few games in the bigs, Richie's development had ground to a halt thanks to concussion issues. He played just 28 games (22 AHL, 6 NHL) in 06/07 and it was unclear whether he'd be able to continue his career due to lingering concussion symptoms. Thus the decision not to renew his contract in the off-season.

Which, in retrospect, was the wrong move. Regehr played 44 games for the Frankfurt Lions last year and tore the league a new corn-hole, scoring 21 goals and 41 points in just 44 games. He set a DEL record for goals scored by a defenseman by managing 5 tallies in a single game. He was also the clubs best point-getter from the blueline and 5th best scorer overall (despite missing 11 games).

Of course, the Deutsche league is hardly the NHL. According to Desjardins league equivalencies it's slightly better than the AHL (0.52). Regehr's 0.93 PPG pace in the DEL converts to a 0.49 PPG rate in the NHL by Desjardins method, which is about 40 points over 82 NHL games (assuming like circumstances). Certainly nothing to sneeze at.

Although undrafted out of Junior, Richie experienced success at every other level during his career. He was a double digit scorer in the WHL twice and a WHL all-star in 2004. Upon being signed by Calgary in 04/05 as a free agent, Regehr immediately became a top 4 option on the farm for Lowell and, later, for Omaha. He played 20 games for the big club over two seasons and was poised to work his way further up the depth chart before the headaches began.

Richie is a much different player than his brother. Whereas Robyn is big, hard-hitting and suspect offensively, Richie is relatively smaller, more mobile and a better puck-mover, but not much of a "shut-down" guy. If one could combine the two siblings skill-sets, one would have probably an elite overall defenseman, I reckon.

During his cup of coffee for the Flames, Regehr never seemed overwhelmed or especially deficient in any aspect of play (unlike, say, the unfortunate Tim Ramholt). He looked very comfortable manning the point on the powerplay and seemed fairly poised with the puck from what I remember. I thought he was an excellent option for bottom-pairing duties going forward and was disappointed when he left the organization.

When Richie was signed by Frankfurt, he agreed to a two-year deal. He's already played two games for the Berlin Polar Bears this season (I guess he got traded?), scoring two points. I don't know if he'll ever return to North American hockey or if he's really over his health issues, but Im certain he'll be a "player of interest" to Calgary at the conclusion of his DEL contract; especially if he can replicate the level of success he enjoyed last season. Keep in mind, the Flames will be looking for depth next year when Aucoin, Warrener and Eriksson are (finally) off the books.

Musings of interest: Dion Phaneuf

I wasn't going to bother including Phaneuf in this series, but some stuff has come to light recently that begs to be shared. That and, well...Im having a hard time coming up with anything else to write about right now.

First off, Tyler over at MC79 explodes the myth that Phanuef doesn't see the tough match-ups. From Tylers chart, you can see that Dion spent a great deal of time against a lot of the big boys last year. And while he didn't exactly fare well (17 ES GF, 24 ES GA "star events"), no one else on the team really did either (except Regehr, naturally).

Of course, no one else on the team had to put up with Anders Eriksson as much. That's a drum I've been banging since the middle of last season, mostly on the strength of what I saw night in and night out. Luckily, I stumbled across some supporting evidence recently. Over at hockey analysis they have each players GF/GA with/without teammates. If you take a gander at Phaneuf's numbers, you'll see that he spent 611 ES minutes with Anders last year (more than any other partner):


Together, the duo allowed 33 ES goals, for a horrid 1.079 GA/20 rate (or 3.237 GA/60). Now, take a look at Phaneuf away from Bubba - his rate plunges down to 0.577 GA/20 (1.731) in 901 minutes of work. That's what I would call a significant effect. Turns out that Eriksson was a fairly deserving punching bag (you'll notice his GA/20 rate away from Phaneuf is still a terrible 0.948).

What's odd from a coaching perspective is how rarely Dion played with his other partners last season - Aucoin and Vandermeer - despite how much better those pairings fared (0.645 GA/20, 0.482 GA/40 in 434 and 207 minutes of ice, respectively). I mean, I caught the difference with my bare eye (and railed against the Eriksson/Phaneuf "chaos pairing" throughout the season constantly) and Im just a schmo watching games from his couch. How the hell did Keenan miss it? Or, if he didn't, what was he trying to accomplish with that pairing? Granted, they scored at a decent rate (1.014 GF/20), but that still leaves them under water. And, in fact, Aucoin/Phaneuf scored at a superior rate anyhow (1.244 GF/20).

Given that he played against the big boys last year AND dragged around a broken piano most nights, I think I can now confidently say:

1.) Phaneuf is ready to take the next step and play against the big boys routinely.
2.) Phaneuf could probably do so well with a capable partner.

As such, and I've suggested this before, I'd like to see Dion skate with Regehr at even-strength next year. That duo could play behind Iginla (who will probably have to take the tough match-ups) and keep their heads above water. Should that occur, I think we'll see "the leap" - when Dion goes from very good to elite - happen in 08/09.

Musings of Interest: Eric Nystrom

I was initially planning on skipping over Nystrom for this series, only because I dont find anything particularly interesting about him. Of all the Flames prospects still growing into their big boy points pants, Nystrom has the lowest ceiling and is therefore the least compelling. Perhaps the only thing interesting about him is why he likely doesn't have much of a future.

Nystrom was a jeans model draft pick. He has a nice skating stride, plays the game in earnest and isn't afraid of the physical play. Lastly and perhaps most importantly, he has decent pedigree. Name recognition can go a long way in horse breeding, politics and, sometimes, hockey drafts.

Nystrom's results certainly don't match his draft position - never have. He was picked 10th overall by the Flames back in 2002, after an okay rookie campaign for the University of Michigan (18-12-30). Unfortunately, he would never go on to replicate those results through the next three years in NCAA, scoring 15, 10 and 13 goals consecutively. After college, Nystrom turned pro where he continued to be little more than mediocre. Although hampered by a nagging shoulder injury, Nystrom managed to play in 108 games over parts of 3 seasons, scoring just 21 goals and 42 points. That's less than 20 year-old, former third-round selection Dustin Boyd managed in 60 some games during his rookie year.

The persistent claim about Nystrom is that he excels in the defensive aspects of the game, therefore counting stats in the lower leagues aren't indicative of his play. Except Nystrom was never a plus player during his AHL time either (cumulative -5). David Van Der Gulik, for comparisons sake, who is described as the farm teams top penalty killer and shut-down guy, was a +27 in his rookie year (06/07). That was best on the team by a country mile and 4th best in the entire league. His peers in that regard were Zenon Konopka (+25), Andrei Kostitsyn (+24) and Dave Steckel (+28). Of the 4, only Van Der Gulik was a rookie. He also scored 16 goals and 43 points that same year.

Get my drift? Nystrom has never been at the head of the class in any regard. What's more, there has never been any real progression in his game. He was ordinary in NCAA. He was ordinary in the AHL. His rookie year for the parent club was pretty much a disaster, despite the fact he was already 25 years-old. There's no upward trend to give one hope of a break-out.

Anyways, here's his advanced stats:

ESP/60: 1.43 (number grossly inflated by the last game of the season in which he managed 4 points against a Vancouver team that showed up only because they were paid to. He had 6 points in the 43 previous games).

QUAL Comp: -0.04
QUAL team: -0.35
GFON: 1.57/60
GAON: 2.15/60
Corsi: -7.7

Meh. As mentioned, Nystrom is a good skater and he's game for anything. Unfortunately, his numerous weaknesses tend to overwhelm his few strengths. He has hands of granite, poor offensive instincts, a bad shot and tends to get lost whenever he drifts into the middle of the ice. He invariably shoots pucks wide or into pads in the offensive zone. He kills rushes in the neutral zone because he's never really sure what to do (outside of dumping it in). He's the kind of player you hope doesn't get the pass on the two-on-one, and you audibly groan when he does. He's also willing to drop the gloves, but invariably gets pummeled whenever he does. He's that guy.

Nystrom does have a couple of things going for him:

1.) The organization seems keen on developing him, despite his ongoing ordinariness.

2.) He had nice PK numbers last season (3.41 GA/60 - a number sullied by a very small sample size) albeit in limited action.

3.) He only has a small body of work on which Im basing my impressions, meaning I could be mistaken.

Problem is, I see more obstacles than opportunities for Eric going forward. Sutter was forced to acquire two comparable (but demonstrably better) players this summer in Bourque and Glencross since it was clear Nystrom would be unable to step into the divide once Huselius and Tanguay left. In addition, Kyle Greentree, a player of similar age and superior AHL results, was added to the farm club this off-season. The depth chart is filling up all around Nystrom and the window for assuring his place on the big team is rapidly closing. He turns 26 in February, has already been lapped by Dustin Boyd and David Moss and will be fighting off the likes of Glencross, Prust, Van Der Gulik and potentially the aforementioned Greentree this coming season...

Prognosis: negative.

Connecting the dots

I've decided to gather all the musing series links into one post. Mainly for organizational and reference purposes, particularly for any new readers dropping by.

In chronological order:

Mikael Backlund
Dustin Boyd
David Moss
Brandon Prust
Rene Bourque
Curtis Glencross
Mike Cammalleri
Matthew Lombardi

I tried to target guys that were new or had some question marks going into the new season. As such, I dont really have any intention of looking at players I've already talked about extensively for other reasons (Eriksson, Aucoin or Bertuzzi for example) or guys that are "known commodities" like Iginla, Regehr or Langkow. I May change my mind as the summer drags on or with enough belligerent emails/requests.