The question of Matthew Lombardi as top 6 forward is a divisive one among Flames fans. Some will contend that he has too many deficiencies to consistently contribute offensively. Others, like myself, think that Lombardi could deliver decent results under the right circumstances. This is the year Lombardi settles the debate.
Last season went poorly for Lombardi by the numbers. His counting stats were meh (14-22-36) and his advanced stats were bad-to-dreadful. He spent most of the season skating with rookies or sunset veterans at even-strength and 157 more minutes killing penalties than on the power-play. He also took more own-zone draws than either Conroy or Langkow.
Lombardi was basically stuck in the mud: he played a nebulous, poorly defined role with bad line mates in bad circumstances. He scored the most points of any "bottom 6" forward on the club, but was pretty much in the red by every measure by the end of the year. Had he driven results despite his surroundings, there wouldn't be much of debate at this point. But he didn't, so the question marks remain.
The 26 year-old is a tweener in every sense of the word. AT 26 years of age, he'll be heading into his 5th NHL season this October. He's got 297 NHL games under his belt - not a vet, but certainly not a prospect either, so his ceiling is still fuzzy. He's 2 years removed from scoring 20 goals and 46 points, a season in which his PPG pace went right in the toilet after the re-acquisition of Conroy (and Lombo's subsequent burial behind him). That same summer, he was one of the top scoring players in the World Championships, where he centered a line with Shane Doan and Rick Nash. Although he's not the type of player that performs in any or every situation or makes bad lines float, his world class speed and flashes of offensive prowess hint at unrealized potential. He has trouble against top-notch defenders, but eats third-pairing guys for breakfast. In some games, Lombardi looks like one of the best players on the team. In others, he'll look frustrated and ineffectual.
It's no secret that I like Lombardi. I think he's a one-man scoring chance generator, especially off the rush, and I think he could excel with the proper teammates and ice management. I caught some of the Flames/Sharks play-off series re-runs on the NHL Network a few weeks ago and was struck by how frequently Lomabardi caused havoc at the good end of the rink in those games and how rarely he was rewarded for it. Some might say that that is proof positive Lombardi lacks the killer instinct and the hands to become anything more than what he is already. Personally, I think creating scoring chances is 3/4 of the battle and the puck is bound to start going in eventually, especially if he's playing with someone other than Yelle or Moss or Nystrom.
Calgary has only a few top 6 options in their line-up: Iginla, Langkow, Cammalleri and Bertuzzi (I guess). Only two of them are proven difference makers against tough competition. The Flames will need more than a couple guys to step up and fill the void. As such, this season represents Lombo's best - and perhaps last - opportunity to prove he's more than a Paul Ranheim clone. Im of the opinion that he will (20 goals, 55 points sound about right?), but that remains to be seen.
