While it might be fun to fantasize about Backlund making the bigs, the truth is Dustin Boyd will likely be the only Flames player next year playing under a two-way contract.
First, some facts about Dustin:
- He broke records in his native Manitoba as a 15 year-old Midget by scoring 50 goals and 107 points in 40 games.
- He blossomed at the end of his WHL career after being chosen by the Flames in the 3rd round. In 05/06, he scored 48 goals and 90 points in 64 games for Mosse Jaw. He was also a significant part of the gold-medal winning Canadian team at the World Junior Champioships that year.
- He scored 27 goals and 60 points in 66 games as a 20 year-old rookie in the AHL. He tied for the team lead in points that year with a much older Andrei Taratukhin.
- Dustin has only managed 9 goals and 17 points with limited ice-time in 61 NHL games.
Boyd is probably one the Flames most promising young players. He has a decent pedigree and excelled on a decidedly ordinary team with little offensive punch during his first pro season, despite his relative lack of size and experience.
After a forgettable NHL freshman season last year - where he often skated for a couple of minutes a night with Shlubs like Godard, Primeau and Nystrom - Boyd is poised to potentially move up the depth chart this coming year. Calgary's bottom 6 is littered with guys, but the top 6 forward depth is notably lacking. That's - potentially - where Boyd can slot in if the "ifs" about his potential are answered.
First, why I think he could do it:
His history as a scorer and some of his underlying numbers suggest there's some un-tapped offense waiting to be exploited. in 07/08, Boyd had the 3rd best goals/60 rate at ES (1.03) on the Flames behind Iginla and Huselius. Now, the obvious caveat here is small sample size, but I still find that kind of number encouraging given Boyd's surroundings 5-on-5. His overall rate of 1.76 ESP/60 was also higher than the likes of Nolan (1.57), Lombardi (1.50) and Moss (1.55). While he didn't play tough minutes, he was also saddled with some of the worst players on the team as linemates most of the time. His PPP/60 rate looks ugly (0!), but was attained with the help of a mere 44 seconds/game on what might have been the worst 2nd PP unit in the league. More ice-time with better players, particularly with the man-advantage where he won't have to struggle with defensive issues, should increase Boyd's production.
The obstacles:
The glut of centers is the first, most obvious problem. In order to make his way into the top 6 it's almost a guarantee that Boyd will have to become a winger. On one hand, that means less complicated responsibilities in his own end of the rink. On the other hand, he seemed to struggle with the conversion when he played wing last year. Course, that may have had more to do with being a rookie on a kids line that was fed to the wolves for about a 4 week period mid-season.
In addition, like most youngsters, Boyd tends to bleed shots/scoring chances/goals against. He had the worst GA/60 rate on the whole team by a fair margin last season and was typically a liability when it turned into panic time in the defensive zone.
The probably means Boyd will have to play with strong linemates against softer competition if he isn't going to be a throbbing sore spot south of the red-line. The question remains whether the Flames actually have that kind of position available going forward (they didn't last year, thus his relegation to the 4th line). The good news is: Im fairly confident Boyd would rapidly improve in this regard if afforded the opportunity and proper surroundings.
I think a decent comparable to keep in mind is the Blues David Perron. Perron was a 19 year-old rookie for St.Louis who picked up 13 goals and 27 points in 62 games last year. From what I saw, Murray played the youngster in a "scoring role" and thus put him into a position to succeed: soft competition (-0.04), good linemates (0.01), decent ice-time (12:43/night) with some generous opportunity on the PP for good measure (2:43 average). Perron responded with the 4th best scoring rate on the team (1.95 ESP/60) and was neutral in terms of +/-.
I think that would be the ideal situation for Boyd next season developmentally speaking and in terms of potential production. Murray sheltered his "2nd line" scoring unit and then fed guys like Mayers, McClement and Backes to the wolves. Keenan might be able to do the same next season with guys like Moss, Bourque and Conroy doing the heavier lifting, leaving Boyd, Lombardi/Langkow and *whoever* to take offensive zone draws against 3rd and 4th liners.
With a dearth of legit top 6 options, the Flames are going to need some aggressive bench management and a few guys to take more than a small step forward in order to remain competitive. As such, this could be an excellent opportunity for a guy like Boyd to stake his claim as a top 6 player and a big part of Calgary's future.
