There's been some decent stories in the local media recently relating to the upcoming (and previous) entry drafts. Here's my own humble contribution in that same vein...
The Calgary Franchise is now 5 years removed from the onset of the Darryl Sutter regime. Given that it takes about 5 years to evaluate draft performance, I figure it's a good time to look over the Flames drafting record since Sutter took office.
2003:
9th pick - Dion Phaneuf - 243GP
39th pick - Tim Ramholt - 1 GP
97th pick - Ryan Donally
112th pick - Jamie Tardif
143rd pick - Greg Moore
173rd pick - Tyler Johnson
206th pick - Thomas Bellamere
240th pick - Cam Cunning
270th pick - Kevin Harvey
The inclusion of Dion Phaneuf makes palatable what would otherwise be a disastrous year at the table. Of the 9 players chosen, only two have played in the big league, and that's generously counting Tim Ramholt's single shift. Only Phaneuf, Ramholt, Donnally and Cunning are still Flames property, with Cunning and Ramholt making some contributions at the AHL level for Omaha recently (Donally played for the Las Vegas Wranglers in the ECHL last season). Chances are, none of them will regularly skate for the Flames (or anyone else in the NHL for that matter).
Moore, Tardif and Johnson all plied their trade in the AHL for other franchises last year while guys like Bellamere and Harvey no longer play hockey competitively. Basically, the Flames hit a homerun with the first swing of the bat in 2003 and then proceeded to ground out the rest of the way. What's perhaps most disappointing about their lack of success is the relatively good draft position, with 2003 marking the best position (9th) the organization has enjoyed during Sutter's tenure.
2004:
24th pick - Kris Chucko
70th pick - Brandon Prust - 10 GP
98th pick - Dustin Boyd - 61 GP
118th pick - Aki Seitsonen
121st pick - Kris Hogg
173rd pick - Adam Pardy
182nd pick - Fred Wikner
200th pick - Matt Schneider
213th pick - Jimmy Spratt
279th pick - Adam Cracknell
This was a quantity rather than quality draft. Calgary had 10 picks but only one of them was inside the top 69 choices - and the club wasted it on Kris Chucko. Like the previous draft, most of the guys are AHL (or worse) fodder. The only possible exceptions are Dustin Boyd, who likely has the biggest upside of the bunch (20 goal, 2nd line center sound about right?), and Adam Pardy, who was recently mentioned by some of the muck-e-mucks as a youngster knocking on the door. Prust has also played at the NHL level, but a lot of the reports and stats from the farm indicate his development has basically stalled at "injury call-up". If he ever makes the Flames full-time (large "if"), it's unlikely he'll progress much past 4th line duties. As things stand currently, it looks like the Flames garnered just one NHL player out of 10 choices from this batch.
2005:
26th pick - Matt Pelech
69th pick - Gord Baldwin
74th pick - Dan Ryder
111th pick - JD Watt
128th pick - Kevin Lalande
158th pick - Matt Keetley - 1 GP
179th pick - Brett Sutter
221st pick - Myles Rumsey
At 3 years out, a draft becomes harder to grade simply because all of the guys in question are still young and trying to establish themselves as professional players. None of them have played in the NHL yet (excusing Matt Keetley's cup of coffee). Based on what I've seen and heard, Matt Pelech and the aforementioned Keetley may be the only guys with a shot at cracking the bigs, particularly since Daniel Ryder decided to take his ball and go home last summer. Watt is a shit-disturber in the Downie/Carcillo mold, although he has considerably less actual hockey-skill than those guys. He scored more than 30 goals a couple years ago for Vancouver in the WHL but has done little since, even as an overager on the Rebels/Pats last season. I haven't seen him play much, but his numbers are hardly encouraging. He is, however, one of the kids Sutter signed to a big-league contract, so maybe there's something there.
Brett Sutter, Darryl's son, made the AHL club last year and struggled to keep his head above water. I have no idea if he has NHL potential, although his stats suggest a 4th line/grinder type ceiling should he ever make the leap.
Again, it's hard to say, but there doesn't seem to be much here. I think what I find most surprising about this draft, though, is the org's decision to use 2 of the 8 picks on goalies.
Were I forced to grade this draft right now, I'd have to go with "poor", again. Pelech was an off-the-board pick at the time, a guy who had fallen during his draft year due to injuries. While I applaud Sutter and co. for seeking out undervalued guys at the bottom end of the rotation, the truth of the matter is they didn't do a very good job of it. Currently, there are more than 30 players that were chosen after Pelech that have played in the NHL: some of them have gotten a cup of coffee while others are already making contributions (Matt Niskanen, ME Vlasic, Paul Statsny, Kris Letang, Kris Russel, Jared Boll, Sergei Kostitsyn, Kyle Cumiskey). There's still a lot of time left for Pelech to step up, however.
2006:
26th pick - Leland Irving
87th pick - John Armstrong
89th pick - Aaron Marvin
118th pick - Hugo Carpentier
149th pick - Jusso Puustinen
179th pick - Jordan Fulton
187th pick - Devin DiDiomete
209th pick - Per Johnsson
Two years out and we're basically reading tea leaves at this point. Most of these guys are still kids and are at the tail-end of their junior/college careers. Irving enjoyed a large portion of success at the WHL level and is a lock to make the Omaha squad this upcoming season. His numbers and pedigree suggest NHL upside, but who the hell knows with goalies sometimes.
The rest of the 2006 cohort is a total grab-bag. None are guarantees to make the bigs or even challenge for a job. Jusso Puustinen led his WHL club in scoring this past season, but has since fled back to Finland. The Flames declined to offer him a contract and have lost his rights as a result. DiDiomete, Fulton, Carpentier and Armstrong are all middling talents who will need some combination of a tireless work ethic, favorable circumstances and a big step forward to become NHL players in the distant future. Aaron Marvin is said to have some offensive upside, but if or whether that translates beyond anything more than the HS level remains to be seen.
Grading this draft is obviously difficult, but, as it stands now, it doesn't look like Calgary managed anything more than a single or double with this go-round (depending on how Irving does) - if that. Probably the best Flames fans can hope for from any of these skaters is a "David Moss" type player..and that's 3 to 5 years down the road.
2007:
24th pick - Mikael Backlund
70th pick - John Negrin
116th pick - Keith Aulie
143rd pick - Mickey Renaud
186th pick - CJ Severyn
Like Pelech, Backlund was another player that fell during his draft year due to injury. Sutter originally had the 17th pick, but chose to deal down in exchange for more picks later. He grabbed Backlund with the 24th choice and the early returns on that gamble are, happily, encouraging. Speaking of under-valued, John Negrin was another injury-felled player snagged by the Flames, and he had a whale of year for the Kootney Ice last season. Ironically, the Flames may have hit a couple of doubles in this draft, despite the relatively small number of picks (although it's way too early to say so definitively).
As his tenure as the Flames GM has matured, Sutter has made a habit of:
1.) trading away later picks (2nd, 3rd rounders, etc) for established players (Tanguay, Conroy, Lundmark, Hale) and
2.) Trading down in the first round to re-coup those picks.
The results have been...mixed to date. Of the 40 choices the organization has made under Sutter's direction, only 2 (!) have played more than 60 NHL games (Phaneuf and Boyd), with only perhaps 5 more with a good chance to crack the bigs and contribute at some point in the future (by my own subjective perceptions, at least): Pardy, Pelech, Backlund, Irving and Negrin. The Sutter-helmed Flames knocked one out of the park with their very first pick, but have failed to acquire anything near that quality of player since. In fact, there seems to be a dearth of NHL-caliber players period, let alone any of the star variety.
While the prior regimes (rightly) get some flack for the Flames lack of home-grown talent, the current administration is equally to blame for the clubs dearth of cheap, entry-level players. Of the youngins that skated for the Flames last season (Moss, Boyd, Nystrom, Phaneuf), only two were Sutter picks/under the age of 25, with one of those (Phaneuf) playing the final year of his entry-level deal.
Of impending relevance is the fact that there are precious few youngsters looking to step in and fill some of the (gaping) roster holes this coming September, with only Van Der Gulik (also not a Sutter-era pick), Pardy and maybe Pelech or Prust pressing to be replacement level skaters at the bottom-end of the roster.
Im no expert on prospects and haven't seen most of these guys play, so none of this gospel. In addition, we're still several years away from really learning the true success rates for any of the 2005 drafts or later. However, from where I stand currently and with all the information available to me -- it's probably fair to say Im not bullish on the Flames draft record under Sutter thus far.
