"It's an old line but we want a top six forward. We want a guy who can put up offensive numbers ... We want to take the best player available. We want to take an offensive forward."
So says Flames head Scout Tod Button. In an earlier interview this year, Sutter was explicit in his intentions to pursue forwards in the draft before defensemen or goalies ("we don't need any more goalies"). Ironically, the current draft class seems heavy with defenders: Of the 20 top ranked North American and international skaters (10 NA, 10 IN), almost half are blueliners. So the the Flames are going fishing for forwards in defensemen rich waters...
We can further narrow down the field by looking at the organizations previous habits. As mentioned in the retrospective below, the Flames have made 40 picks with Sutter at the Helm. Here's a Lowetide-like break-down of where those picks have come from:
WHL - 16
OHL - 9
QMJHL - 3
NCAA - 1
BCHL/USHL/USHS/Minn/OPJHL - 6
Swe - 3
Swiss - 1
Fin - 1
Clearly, the CHL dominates the Flames choices (70%), with the WHL unsurprisingly being the clear favorite (40%). Calgary has only made 5 picks outside of North America in 5 years (12.5%), with three of those coming out of Sweden (and none out of Russia).
Flames 2008 draft order:
* 1st Round - 17th Pick
* 2nd Round - None (dealt to LA for Conroy)
* 3rd Round - 78th pick
* 3rd Round - 108th pick
* 4th Round - 114th pick (from Washington, acquired in the Stuart trade)
* 5th Round - 138th pick
* 6th round - 168th pick
* 7th round - 198th pick
Flames have 7 choices this year, so Sutter may be less keen on trading down in the first round to acquire more picks later on. Further, he's been vocal in the media lately about how "picking in the 20's" makes drafting more difficult. Chances are, Sutter hangs onto #17 (unless a very good deal comes along).
So, assuming:
- Sutter keeps his first rounder
- Picks according to habit (Canada, WHL, OHL, QMJHL, SWE)
- Pursues a forward and,
- Pursues a winger over a centerman (the organization is really thin on the wings)
This is who we can reasonably expect the organization to target...
Mikkel Boedeker - LW - OHL
07/08 - 62 GP, 29G 44A 73PTS
From NHL Central Scouting: Although he is 5'11", he plays low to the ice and as a result is a real solid player. This Team Denmark product is a versatile player for the Kitchener Rangers and that is what he is going to be for his NHL team. He quarterbacks the power-play as a forward from the point for the Rangers and does an effective job.
A consensus top 10 pick. It's doubtful he'll fall into Calgary's range.
Tyler Ennis - LW - WHL
07/08 - 70 GP, 43G 48A 91PTS
From NHL Central Scouting: Tyler is a quick, water-bug-type player. He scoots up and down the ice and can turn on a dime. He can drive wide on a defenceman who is unaware or a little slow. Tyler may be one of the best pure offensive players in the entire draft.
Ennis put up big numbers last year, but is rather small (5'8", 170 pounds) which drops his ranking around the late 20's and early 30's. He'll probably be available at 17.
Mattias Tedenby - LW - HV71 (SWE)
07/08 - 23GP, 3G 3A 6PTS
From NHL Central Scouting: Mattias is excellent on every shift. He has outstanding speed, stick work and work ethic. He is small but fearless - he takes hits and always comes back. He creates scoring chances with his outstanding skating and is very difficult to stop when he is at full speed. He has excellent balance and quick, smooth hands, but needs to improve on his defensive awareness.
Again, another small, fast player (5'9", 165 pounds) with offensive upside who might be around when the Flames take the stage. I like phrases such as "fearless", "outstanding skating" and "difficult to stop".
Joe Colborne - LW - AJHL
07/08 - 55GP, 33G 57A 90PTS
From NHL Central Scouting: Very rangy with his stick; he dishes the puck well and has really good on-ice awareness. If he can get his skating a little more energetic, he'll be a big strong player down the middle. When he is at his best he is a strategic player.
Colborne is a huge Western Canadian kid (6'5", 190 pounds) and might just be the odds-on favorite to be a Flames pick. Personally, I dont like him. Kris Chucko has really soured me on picking raw talents who put up nice numbers in second rate leagues. I've also heard things like "soft", "mediocre skating" and "project" associated with this guy. To me, it looks like those nice counting numbers and "projectable frame" are turning him into a draft day jeans model.
Matthew Calvert - LW - WHL
07/08 - 72GP, 24G 40A 64PTS
Calvert is another in a long line of diminutive, offensive LWers in this draft. He scored at nearly a point per game pace as a rookie for Brandon last year. He's generally ranked in the high 20's amongst NA skaters, again partially due to his size (5' 9", 175 pounds). He's more of a 2nd or 3rd round pick, but could be on the Flames radar in the first round if some of their other choices are gone (and since they don't own a 2nd rounder currently).
Jared Staal - RW - OHL
07/08 - 60GP, 21G 28A 49PTS
From NHL Central Scouting: With the great Staal family reputation and the high expectations brought on by his brothers, Jared is coming into his own -- he's just growing into his 'big Staal body', which is very similar to that of his brothers. He comes off the wing with the desire to go to the net.
The reports about the youngest Staal are mixed at best. He put up mediocre numbers in the OHL and tested poorly at the NHL combine recently. It's said he has top-notch skill, but lacks motivation to succeed. As of now, most scouts put him in the 2nd or 3rd round.
I can see Sutter being tempted by Staal's pedigree, however. The Flames might just take a chance on the baby Staal if some of their other targets fall through.
WILD CARD:
Kyle Beach - C - WHL
07/08 - 60 GP, 27G 33A 60PTS
From NHL Central Scouting: One of the top forwards in this year's draft and is probably the most competitive – from the blue line in there is no one that competes like him. He has good scoring skills and a very accurate shot, and from the blue line in, once he gets the puck, he almost owns it.
Beach may fall to the Flames due to injury concerns (concussion problems last year) and rumors of attitude problems. He's ranked all over the board, with some considering him a top 10 choice while others have him in the 20s (or worse). Although he's a center, he hits a lot of Sutters sweet-spots: big (6'3", 203 pounds), mean, highly competitive, born in Western Canada and plays in the WHL. Not to mention "potentially undervalued due to injury", which is a well the club has gone to twice before in the first round (Backlund, Pelech). If Beach is still on the board at 17, it wouldn't surprise me at all to see the Flames call his name.
EDIT - Jean Lefebvre has a nice draft article in the Herald today. Some highlights:
- Sutter told the media mob Monday morning at the Saddledome, "but we won't be in that market. We think on defence, with the guys that we have (including long-term signees Dion Phaneuf and Robyn Regehr) and the kids that we've drafted (most notably Matt Pelech and John Negrin) . . . if it was a saw-off between a defenceman and a forward, we wouldn't take the defenceman. The chances are, if we stayed at 17, we'd take a forward there."
"Just looking back," he said, "the highest we picked was 24th other than my first year (2003) with Dion (Phaneuf). That in itself is significant. Seven spots up and with this being, I think, probably the best draft since Phaneuf's year in terms of the depth of it all. I like that pick. It's really hard to tell who falls there because there are so many good defencemen who'll be in the top 10, and probably three or four centremen, too. It's hard to see how that next group is going to shake out."
The funny thing about Sutter's lamentations on this issue is the fact that he has traded down in the first round more than once: 2007 (Backlund), 2005 (Pelech) and 2004 (Chucko).
- On the team's June work since Sutter became general manager in 2003: "We got Dion at nine (in '03), but I would have liked that draft to be stronger for us." Only three players chosen five years ago -- Tim Ramholt, Cam Cunning and Ryan Donally -- are still with the organization, and none is considered a significant prospect. "After that, I'm quite happy."
- On whether Mikael Backlund, Calgary's top choice a year ago, will play in the NHL this coming season: "Based on skill, he could, But he's 19 years and he'd have to play in our top group. He'll either play in the NHL or he'll play in Sweden.
- If you're into reading between the lines, you may want to consider this Sutter statement: "I think there's a few kids that are in Western Canada who fall to where we are (in the first-round order). Not necessarily in the Western league, but who are from out here that I'm comfortable with."
The prime prospects who best fit that description are Joe Colborne and David Toews.
- On potential changes to the Flames' scouting operations: "We look at it every year. If there's one impact that the (expiry of the) European agreement has is where your scouts are over there. Scandinavia is probably where the base of your staff should be overseas." (translation: more focus in Sweden).
