What the Flames have:
Calgary's primary strength is an enviable nucleus of difference makers. Recognizing cornerstone players and signing them to decent contracts has probably been Sutter's greatest strength as the Flames GM.
1.) Jarome Iginla.
Is the shit. A top 5 forward in this league and signed to be a very reasonable deal (7M/year). Iginla is a boon to the club on and off the ice, both highly competitive yet gregarious and likable. He can play against anyone, drives results at ES and on the PP and can beat the hell out of guys that annoy him. He makes teammates better and strikes fear into the hearts of the opposition. Iginla is the type of guy that helps attract free agents to the organization because other players want to be on his team.
2.) Robyn Regehr.
Regehr was already a top-notch shut-down defenseman by the time he was 24. He's the bedrock upon which any team could build a solid back-end. Although the contributions of a "defensive-defensemen" are difficult to track, I'd say he's underpaid at 4M/year.
Regehr routinely plays against the best competition available and turns them away. He's hated by Oilers fans for his continued abuse of Alice Hemsky and he delivers hits like this:
I like Robyn Regehr.
3.) Dion Phaneuf.
Although still learning some of the nuances of the position, Phaneuf is unquestionably one of the most exciting defensmen to come around in a long time. His PPG average after three seasons is 0.65 - better than many forwards. He's increased his point total each subsequent year and has led the Flames in terms of total ice-time since breaking into the league. He's highly durable, has a howitzer of shot, can skate faster than half the team and can knock guys into the third row. Last year, he scored a coast-to-coaster against the Minnesota Wild - shorthanded:
He's already an elite point producer at 23 years-old and is poised to become one of the best all-around defensemen in the league with a step or two forward. His dollar figure looks hefty now (6.5M/year) but he's a good bet to justify that cap hit in the near future.
4.) Daymond Langkow.
Mr. reliable. Langkow has been a 20 goal, 60 point player forever. He can play in all situations and against pretty much anyone. He's especially adept at tipping pucks in front of the net and has excelled on the Flames PP because of it. The de facto first line center next season, he should be a lock for another 25 or 30 goals and 60+ points. Again.
These are the guys that ensure the Flames will always be respectable, whatever mistakes are made elsewhere. The Flames will probably always be within striking distance of the division title and the play-offs with these guys around*.
*(Miikka Kiprusoff was a part of this group once upon a time. He still might be, but that will depend on a return to form.)
5.) A dedicated farm team.
Although I've ripped on Sutter for not aggressively developing the kids during the last few years, the organization has gone about establishing a committed farm system, bred exclusively to nurture the Flames internal assets. The returns thus far have been rather uninspiring, but the theory is sound.
What they lack:
1.) Supporting ES producers.
Losing Huselius, Tanguay and Nolan this summer and replacing them with Bertuzzi, Cammalleri and Bourque represents a significant gamble. The team currently only has 2 established ES difference-makers in the top half of the forward ranks (Iginla, Langkow). No one else produced against tough assignments 5on5 last year. They either didn't score all that much (Bourque, Bertuzzi) got scored on a lot (Cammalleri) or both (Lombardi, Boyd?). Almost all of them played against soft competition.
2.) A Top 4 defenseman.
The Flames have two tiers on the back-end. The top includes three clear candidates (Phnauef, Regehr, Sarich) and the bottom is choked with bottom-pairing guys of varying quality (Aucoin, Giordano, Eriksson, Vandermeer, Warrener). Since losing Jordan Leopold in the Tanguay trade, Sutter has struggled to fill that vacancy, employing shoddy stop-gap measure after stop-gap measure (Zyuzin, Eriksson, Stuart, Aucoin, Vandermeer?).
Now, this seems a minor quibble when looking at some of the other bluelines in the league (Tampa Bay, Carolina, Wash...hell, all the SE division teams except Florida), but considering what it could be and the amount the org spends on the back-end - the lack of legit 4th defender is rather galling.
3.) Cap space.
On a related issue, the Flames have one of the priciest rosters in the entire league. Their cap cup runneth over. Even if Sutter finds some way to bury the dead weight (Nilson, Warrener, Eriksson), it's unlikely the club will have any real room to maneuver once the season starts. If Darryl decides the team needs a change at some point, it's going to take a major deal involving a significant player or two to get it done.
4.) Good bets to out-perform.
Calgary lost a large portion of their high value contracts this off-season. Huselius, at 1.4M/year, bolted for free agency while raises to Regehr (4M), Kiprusoff (5.833), Langkow (4.5) and Phaneuf (6.5) have all but wiped out the other good value to cap-hit ratios.
All Calgary has left is Lombardi (1.8), Giordano (800K), Boyd (742k), Moss (550k) Bertuzzi (1.9), Cammalleri (3.3) and Bourque (1.3) - and I wouldn't put money on at least half those guys significantly out-performing their cap hits next year.
5.) Quality kids.
Finally - and related to all points above - Calgary has a dearth of top-notch prospects in the system. I can only think of 2 skaters with the potential to crack the team's top 6 forward roster in the next couple seasons (Boyd and Backlund). Matt Pelech is the only defender who might turn into a top 4 guy in the next few years and even that is hardly assured. The QC Flames are crawling with a lot of young players and a lot of guys whose ceiling is the bottom-end of the rotation.
What Im looking forward to:
I dont think Calgary will be challenging for the cup this season. Too many question marks. What will likely drive my interest in 08/09 is the potential steps forward by a number of the orgs more compelling younger assets.
1.) Can Phaneuf become truly elite?
Although he's already proven a lot, Phaneuf will have to start excelling in his own end in order to become a real Norris trophy candidate. His PKing last year was fairly dreadful and he still has problems against the big guns. Scoring a lot of points is great - and very useful - but as the 2nd highest paid player on the roster behind Jarome Iginla, more will be expected of Dion going forward.
2.) Is Matthew Lombardi a top 6 forward?
This will be Lombardis last and best chance to convince me (and everyone else) that he's capable of being a legit top 6 forward in this league. He floundered last season, but has the kind of tools that suggest he could produce in the right circumstances. All signs point to him starting the year as the 2nd line center. It'll be fascinating to see what he does with it.
3.) Who is Mark Giordano?
I was a fan of what I saw of Gio his first season. I liked his awareness in the offensive zone, his speed, his vision and his tenacity. He had a lot of the problems that most rookie defenders have (ie: overwhelmed by good players or bad situations), but his results weren't too bad.
Unfortunately, thanks to the contract kerfuffle that followed, it's hard to know what kind of player Giordano really is at this point. His NHL sample size is tiny (40-odd games, averaging about 13 minutes a night against nobodies) meaning we have really poor quality data on him. He scored a lot in the AHL, played (well?) in the RSL and was selected for the Canadian World Championship team. Still, I have no firm fix on whether Gio will come out and challenge for that final top 4 position on the back-end or spend most of the year being the 7th defender.
4.) Can Dustin Boyd step out of the basement?
Boyd is fast, agile and has a nose for the net. He's scored in every league he's played in thus far in his career, besides the NHL. He is probably the 2nd best forward prospect in the system currently and is the most apt to take a big leap this season.
Unfortunately, a lot of obstacles stand in his way. There's a ton of more proven guys at his natural position - C - ahead of him on the roster. As such, there doesn't seem to be a natural "fit" for him anywhere. Lombardi and Langkow already populate the top 6, while playing with Conroy on a 3rd unit "checking line" wouldn't make much sense for the defensively challenged Boyd. Nor does plumbing the depths with Primeau, Roy and Nystrom.
If Boyd is to take a real step forward, he'll probably have to do it by outplaying the likes of Bourque and Glencross for a top 6 winger position.
5.) Was Rene Bourque a steal?
A lot of the former 'Hawks underlying stats are pretty impressive. He played against decent competition and came out even on a bad team. He was excellent short-handed and is known for his speed and hard shot. In addition, his injury issues which likely made him seem expendable in Chicago, look like freakish, acute type of incidents (cut throat, broken hand) than on-going chronic conditions.
Sutters other major strength as the Flames GM has been his penchant for pulling off theft-type deals every so often: Kipprusoff for a 2nd, Huselius for Montador and Langkow for parts (Gauthier and Saprykin) all spring to mind. I have a hunch the Bourque deal might fall into that category, so I'll be wathcing him closely this year.
What I dread:
1.) The Kipper decline:
Im aware that a downward trend is by no means inexorable. However, it's really hard to get away from his descending stats since winning the Vezina. Perhaps it's the Turek-experience speaking here, but Miikka's big raise this season - in concert with his ever more mediocre results - sends shivers down my spine.
If he rebounds and regains his form, I'll be glad to eat my words. However, a repeat performance or, worse, a tick in the wrong direction and the Flames have a 5.8M anchor in net and a very expensive, non-play-off roster.
2.) The Keenan factor.
Marcus Nilson and Alex Tanguay have recently spoken up about their poor experiences under Iron Mike last year. Huselius was beat up at the end of the regular season and then gladly bolted to free agency. There are some disquieting signs that Keenan is up to his old team-killing tricks again and might well plunge the club into chaos and disarray the same way he has several times before. Not only could this harm the Flames performance this season, it could effect the future of the club if he agitates, alienates or drives out any of the orgs other assets.
3.) Todd Bertuzzi.
Until he proves me wrong, Im going to assume that the Bertuzzi move was a bad one. The guy is a suspect teammate, flippant with the press, roundly hated throughout the league and has a pending multi-million dollar civil suit to deal with. He was also thoroughly ordinary for the Ducks last year, despite really favorable surroundings, and hasn't been an impact player for quite some time. On top of all that, he's missed 88 games the last two seasons due to back problems. While his contract is good (1 year, 1.9M), the cost of relying upon Bertuzzi to be a consistent top 6 producer might be a heavy one.
4.) All the bad money.
Calgary has a lot of bad contracts. Primeau, Eriksson, Warrener and Aucoin all make way too much for what they bring to the table. Have you ever seen one of those gasoline or motor oil ads talking about "engine gunk that impedes performance"? Well, that's what these guys are at their current price points - engine gunk. They take up too much cap space and block roster positions that would be better filled by up-and-comers.
Conclusion :
The Flames have a lot going on this year. Big gambles and big question marks piled atop a decent base of elite players. There's lots to be excited about and just as much to worry over. At the very least, this season is going to be an interesting one, no matter what happens.
