I caught some of Sportsnets season preview this weekend and was struck by something Doug MacLean said. That's right -- Doug MacLean.
During a discussion around the Leafs youngster Luke Schenn, Mike Brophy suggested the first rounder would be better served going back to Junior to continue his development since the Leafs would be lousy with or without him. MacLean replied, "that's a fairy tale."*
"Some players regress when they go back to Junior. It's about the individual player, really. The Leafs should do what's good for Schenn rather than the team."**
*(I think he meant myth)
**(paraphrased)
What MacLean is getting at, I think, is: a youngsters development can actually be accelerated by exposing him to top quality competition at a young age. We've already seen a number of teenagers step directly into the bigs out of Junior the last few years and either keep their heads above water or make a significant impact right away.
As such, the decision to promote a Luke Schenn - or Mikael Backlund for that matter - should be more about how the move will potentially affect the kids development than the club's immediate depth chart or fortunes. Will the tougher sledding make him stronger? Or will he simply be overwhelmed?
Obviously that's the line in the sand the Flames are trying to define with Backlund this preseason. I think we can assume that if Sutter/Keenan think he'd be better served by playing here than in Sweden, then a roster spot/cap room will be cleared to make it happen.
And if Backlund gets tapped on the shoulder, I think what we should expect is (from what I've seen and heard so far):
- Some initial struggles while he gets acclimatized to the faster game.
- Carefully managed ice-time with decent line mates.
- Only marginally good results (35-40 points, -5 to -10).
- One of the existing centers goes away by the deadline (Langkow, Lombardi, Primeau, etc.).
Backlund as a Calgary Flame at 19 years old would be less about him making a positive impact this year and more about getting his feet wet/grooming him to be an impact player for the near future. For an example see: Sam Gagner, whose rookie season followed a similar arc to the hypothetical one I suggest for Backlund above. The Oilers got a bunch of Gagner's primary growing pains out of the way by promoting him last season and now he's poised to be a legitimate top 6 option for them this year. The Flames might be able to do the same with Backlund this season (for next season), assuming he can make the leap without being ruined.
