In a capped league one of the keys to success is garnering value for dollars spent. This recent Lowetide post on the 05/06 Oilers club inspired me to take a look at the current Flames roster with an eye to predicting the potential high value players for the upcoming season.
Matthew Lombardi:
Prior to all this RFA craziness instituted by a desperate man up north, Sutter managed to ink Lombo to a shiny, new 3 year deal worth an average of 1.87M per year. In light of some of the contracts handed out to Matthew's cohorts this summer (Penner - 4.3M, Parise - 3.125M, Scott Hartnell - 4.2M) the deal is a relative bargain. As such, the probability that Lombardi will deliver a high results to dollar ratio is a good one: given the current market, even if he treads water this season and duplicates his 06/07 performance (20G, 46 points), he will deliver "full value" for his cap number.
Should Lombardi take a step or two forward, he will considerably outperform his contract. And it's probably not unreasonable to expect a break-out season from the fourth year pro either: he's 25 and on the crest of his peak years. He's a season removed from breaking the 20 goal barrier and is poised to once and for all break into the Flames top-6 forwards, which is a relatively strong set of point producers. He's got experience and a decent supporting cast. He proved himself capable of skating with the big boys during his successful stint in the World Championships. All signs point to "yes", as the magic 8-ball would say.
Kristian Huselius:
His 1.4M/year deal is absurd. Mike Ribeiro makes more than that. So does Steve Rucchin, Chris Gratton and Brett McLean. At this price point, Keenan would have to bench Juice for the half the season to drain his contract of value.
Huselius is coming off a break-out season of his own (34 goals, 77 points). He and Langkow drove the results on the 2nd unit and they even excelled as the top dogs with Tanguay while Iginla was injured in January. If there hadn't been a rotating tie-rack of less than capable RWers on that 2nd line all year (Kobasew, Amonte, Moss), Huselius would likely have been at least a PPG player.
That's a mighty fine production/dollar rate, particularly considering the current market. Heading into 07/08, The "Keenan risk" remains as does the potential for Juice to regress back to the mean a little, but I wouldn't bet against another 60+ point campaign for the chinless magician. He's consistently put up good to great results on the PP since becoming a Flame, and Calgary should have a top 10 unit again next season if a couple of things go right.
Damond Langkow:
The 30 year old pivot has managed 50 or more points for 7 straight seasons, including the career-best numbers he put up last year (33G, 77P). His GF/GA +/- rate at ES was the best of any regular forward on the team (+1.49 G/60), resulting in an impressive +23 stat in 06/07 as well.
Langkow is the undisputed #1 center on the Flames depth chart. He has consistently put up good (or better) results, even on crappy teams: during his 3 years in the desert, Langs managed 68 goals, 166 points and a cumulative +42 rating in 243 GP for the Coyotes. So while his contract isn't in the bargain basement like Lombardi's and Juice's, comparatively he's a much smaller risk to produce just middling results next year. Another step in the same footprint would represent high value.
Dion Phaneuf:
This will be the last season of his rookie capped salary. Phaneuf has already delivered outstanding results relative to his pay-scale the last two seasons and hopefully the Flames will see more of the same (or better) this year. Dion has led the Flames d-corps in minutes played for two straight years, and has been amongst the best in other categories as well: PP production, goals (by defencemen), hits and blocked shots. He scored 99 points in his first 161 games, a PPG rate over and above many young forwards (0.614), let alone rearguards.
If Phaneuf can step into a top 4 role and consistently suppress scoring as well as he promotes it in 07/08, he will significantly galvanize the Flames back-end and further outperform his cap hit (0.785). There's no question he will again be Calgary's #1 PP option on the blueline and likely the ice-time leader thanks to his 4+ minutes of PP time a game. He'll therefore produce nice looking counting numbers again, which is all you can reasonably ask out of those kinds of dollars. Course, should he take a step forward and start excelling against tougher opponents at ES, Phaneuf will represent the best value on the team (and the league?).
Mark Giordano:
I've beat the drum for Giordano in this space for awhile now. I thought he was excellent during his limited time in Calgary last year. He's quick and has great offensive instincts. I love his first pass and ability to read and react to a play, especially off the rush. His shot isn't hard, but it's laser-beam accurate. He scored two goals in a game in his home town of Toronto last year, the second of which was a ballsy, cut-out-of-the-corner move that half the forward roster would be hard pressed to execute.
That said, he has the expected deficiencies of a young, inexperienced player: he battles with inconsistency at times and struggles against the tougher opponents. There's no question that Giordano should be sheltered from the big boys, but his (expected - he's yet to sign a new contract) low price point makes it hard to complain too loudly. He put up decent scoring rates at ES and the PP last season and did well against the lesser lights in his rookie campaign, despite frequently skating with poorer linemates (Zyuzin and an injured Warrener). Should he be granted a full-time roster spot and decent PP minutes, I expect Gio to outperform his contract pretty handily (assuming he's re-signed to something below 1M/year).
Miika Kiprusoff:
Top 3 goaltender in the league. Makes 3.33M/season.
David Moss:
Moss was a surprise to make the team last year and even then he managed to distinguish himself well enough to make Chuck Kobasew expendable. As a rookie, he scored at a rate that would have had him at 20 goals for the season had he played the full year. He proved adept at a lot of the "little things" around the rink, making him less of an ES risk than most rooks (doubtlessly owing to the fact that he's a late blooming 24 year old), which is probably the reason he was allowed to stick on the 2nd line with Huselius and Langkow, despite the fact he's not ideally top 6 material. He's decent in the corners in the offensive zone and in front of the net. Overall, he doesn't have an elite skillset, however, which is one of the reasons I expect him to be bumped down the depth chart in October. He isn't particularly fast or agile. His shot is mediocre. He's not going to beat most defenders one on one.
What he can do is chip in around the net and keep his nose clean otherwise. His cap hit is just about as small as it gets, too: $550,000. That means, even if he just manages to keep his head above water at ES, he will meet or exceed his contract value. Anything beyond that is gravy.
A couple of these guys are almost guaranteed to deliver top value for dollar (Langkow, Kipper, Phanuef) while a few of them have question marks (Lombardi, Huselius, Giordano). Should the stars align, the Flames will have a half dozen overachievers, resulting in a roster worth well more than it's 47M+ cap hit in terms of production, likely paving the way for a decent amount of success.
Naturally, The flip side is this will be the last season for the Franchise to take advantage of many of these underpaying deals. Kipper, Phanuef, Langkow and Huselius are all in line for fat raises in the summer of 08, and the team will no doubt lose at least two of those players due to budget constraints (Langkow and Huselius). Sutter has planted the seed for on-going competitiveness this off-season by locking up Regehr and Iginla long-term. However, to my eye this coming year looks to be the best chance for the Flames to be a genuine contender, considering all the latent value currently residing on the roster. Replacing the contributions of Langkow and Huselius while getting no better than market value production from Kirusoff (assuming Sutter get's his signature on an extension as well) and Phaneuf in 08/09 will represent a significant organizational challenge and will no doubt cripple Calgary's chances of contending for the Stanley Cup thereafter.
