With the exception of perhaps one more move to bring in a vet up front (and get rid of a vet on the back-end), the Flames are pretty much set. As such, I've been mulling over my own expectations for the club going into the 07/08 season. First let's deal with some of the individuals:
Damond Langkow/Kristian Huselius:
I put these guys together because they both experienced similar career seasons last year. Langkow's been a consistent 50-60 point getter for ages now, so while his jump up to 77 wasn't a huge one, it was unprecedented. Conversely, Juice's previous career high was in the 40 point range, meaning he skipped a couple of grades in one fell swoop.
This all shrieks "regression to the mean" to me. Huselius' shooting percentage was a very good 19.7% last year, nearly 6% above his previous best. That just doesn't seem sustainable, despite his undeniable puck skills. And while Langkow's SP of 13.4% was pretty much right in line with his career average, he somehow managed to shoot much MORE than usual last season: his 247 shots on net are the most he's posted in his career, a full 25 more than his previous high and nearly 60 shots higher than his previous career average (187).
Let's say they both fall back into their "career norms". Juice shooting at 14% over 170 shots yields about 24 goals. Langkow managing 190 shots at about a 13% shooting accuracy yields roughly 25 goals. That's a 10 and 8 goal reduction, respectively. Since they play together a lot, let's assume each assists on 50% of the other's goals. That's another 4 points gone for Langkow and 5 points gone for Huselius. Altogether, I think it's sensible to assume about a 15 point drop for each guy next year. That would return Langkow back to his usual 60-odd point standard and correct that big hockey stick in Huselius' career-point graph.
There'll likely be some external mitigating factors as well. If Nolan can be a slightly more capable line-mate than, say, Amonte or Moss, he might contribute to each guys assist totals and soften the regression a bit. Of course, there's also the Keenan factor: if Huselius gets dropped from the first unit PP (which is where he really excels), his point totals with further plummet. On the other hand, if Langkow ends up between Iginla and Tanguay at ES he'll be in line for another career year.
Anyways, all things being equal, I expect both guys points totals to drop, relative to last season. They stepped outside of established norms in 06/07, meaning the rubber band is bound to snap back to some degree next year.
Jarome Iginla/Alex Tanguay:
Iginla had a monster season last year where he was amongst the leagues elite in terms of PPG and ESP. Tanguay certainly had something to do with that: he's a proven performer at ES and his presence helped wrench the Flames top-6 forwards more than a few steps towards offensive respectability.
However, last season was hardly perfect for both players. Tanguay struggled during his first 3 weeks as a Flame (2 goals, 5 points in 10 GP) and he never managed to get it going on the PP: his production rate with the man advantage actually lagged behind his 5on5 production efficiency for the first half of the year! So while his 06/07 point total of 81 represents a career high (only 2 higher than previous best of 79), I think it's reasonable to expect as good or better from Tanguay next year. He's all but guaranteed significant ice-time with Jarome Iginla, and it's unlikely he'll go through any more "growing pains". In addition, one can sensibly predict an increase in his PP efficacy: the Flames have a strong cast for the first unit PP (Phaneuf, Iginla, Huselius, etc.) and typically difference makers nearly double their efficiency rates on the PP. Tanguay's PPP/60 rate was a mere 3.82 (21 points in 330 minutes), which is all of 0.54 more than his ESP/60 rate of 3.28 (60 points in 1097 minutes). That's an inexplicably poor ratio and, to my way of thinking, an unsustainable one considering his talent and teammates. Let's say he makes a two point jump in PP efficiency in 07/08 to something like 5.30 PPP/60: 330 PP minutes over the course of the season would mean an extra 10 PP points or so. Assuming Tanguay's ES production remains pretty stable, a 90+ point year for him isn't beyond the realm of possibility.
As for Iginla, he was injured for a ten game stretch in January and never really seemed to regain his form. By no means was he bad (19 points in 14 games in Feb.), but he certainly wasn't as dominant after January as he was prior. His ES differential in particular took the biggest hit: after returning to action on February 2, Iginla was a cumulative -2 for the rest of the regular season. If I remember correctly, his ESP rate dropped during that time (although his PP efficiency improved a bit) and he was getting scored on a lot more...
Does this mean one can expect the same from Jarome next year? More points assuming a full season? On the other hand, Iginla's numbers were pretty close to the career best stats he put up way back in 01/02, so should we instead assume a return to earth? Iggy has proven to be a bit of a yo-yo in the past - he followed up 01/02 with a 35 goal, 67 point performance. In fact, since 2000 his stats line reads like this: 71-96-67-73-67-94. Down-up-down-up.
That pattern doesn't speak well for next year. Course, this roster is probably the best assortment of players Jarome's played with so far in his career. So that means he may be insulated from a big drop by the surrounding talent.
Hmm...lots of conflicting stuff to consider in Iginla's case. Im going to go with "everything cancels out" and he puts up similar raw numbers to last season. I think he'll be hard pressed to replicate that PPG pace, but Im guessing he'll play more than 70 contests. So let's say another 94 points over 80 or so games.
Matthew Lombardi:
Lombardi was one of the best forwards during the Flames early season struggles in October 06. He scored 10 points in the first 10 games and was +7, despite the fact the team was playing on the road and losing. In fact, he was a minus player only once in the first 25 games, a stretch in which he also scored 18 points. He scored another 15 points in 22 games before stepping into quicksand in February. During a 10 game stretch from Jan.30 - Feb. 17, he scored just 4 points and was a -1. He would go on to score only 2 goals and 9 points for the rest of the year (22 games) after that.
So, Conroy was acquired in February, which resulted in Lombardi's average ice time sinking (he twice played less than 8 minutes in March and was scratched outright once) and with it the quality of his teammates and his confidence. The coincidence of the Conroy trade with Lombardi's reduction in effectiveness is a striking one: The Flames got Conroy back on January 29th. Starting January 30th, Lombardi didn't score any points in the next 4 games and he didn't garner more than 15:30 of ice in any of those contests (in contrast to the prior 4 games: 16:30, 19:40, 18:10 and 17:06). In fact, prior to Conroy re-joining the team, Lombardi's ice had dropped below the 15 minute mark only 5 times total, the last occurrence being Nov.25. After Jan.29th, Lombardi played 15 minutes or less 16 times.
The point of all this is: Lombardi played less and played with lesser players once he got bumped from the top 6. And it hurt it him pretty badly. Expectations for Lombo should be mediated by his place in line-up and will therefore depend on where he gets deployed in the roster. Unlike established difference makers who can "play themselves out of" the bottom-six, Lombardi is an all-or-nothing kind of guy. He can be sunk by lesser teammates and he's not going to drive the bus on the bottom-lines all by himself. With some ice and some linemates, Lombardi can be a pretty decent producer: he's scary fast, has a good shot and some deft hands around the net. He's not big, he's doesn't grind in the corners too well and he's definitely not going to beat anyone up. He's wasted among the bottom-six and it's my hope he'll usurp the aging Conroy and land amongst the top half of the roster this coming season.
Assuming that happens, expect a career year from Lombardi. Nothing like a 30+ Huselius-like gain, of course, but maybe in the 50-55 point range. From Oct.5th '06 to January 28th '07, Lombardi was a 0.65 PPG player. If he can keep that up over the entire 07/08 season, he'll score about 53 points. That would represent an encouraging step forward for the young centerman and for the organizational depth chart in general.
Course, if Lombardi wins the lottery and gets placed between Iginla and Tanguay for a majority of the year, expect a bigger jump. Conversely, if he lands amongst the bottom-6, make sure to trade/sell/waive him from your fantasy team post haste.
Dion Phaneuf:
Phaneuf has been pretty consistent during his first 2 years: Great offence, so-so defence. He was sheltered a bunch by Sutter his rookie year and took on middling competition last season after his first month of playing with Regehr didn't go too well.
If Dion can take the next step, he'll be more reliable at ES and will probably garner more minutes. Course, that could end up costing him PP time (though considering Keenan's penchant for riding the big horses hard, I doubt it).
Certain signs suggest this may happen. Phaneuf has 160+ games under his belt and is entering a contract season and you can bet Keenan's going to push him as hard as Sutter (or harder). If he can respond to these pressures, expect his point total to go up a tad and his GA/60 rate to go down. The latter stat is the more significant when it comes to these considerations and is the one to watch as the season goes on.
Team Stuff:
First and foremost, I expect a better penalty kill from the Flames next year. Considering the personnel (particularly the goaltender) this should be, at the very least, a team in the top half the league in terms of PK efficiency. Calgary floundered when down a man last year and somehow managed to be amongst the worst 8 teams in the league. Teams that were superior to the Flames (80.4%) included:
Columbus (81.2%)
Boston (81.7%)
NY Islanders (81.8%)
Florida (82.4%)
Chicago (82.6%)
Philadelphia (84.5%)
That's right...at least 6 terrible teams (4 of which with suspect goaltending) outperformed the Flames on the PK. And I didn't include Carolina (84.6%) or Edmonton (84.6%) because they were actually in the top 10 in the league.
Part of the issue was Kipper's PK SV% . He dropped from a top notch .932 SV% at ES to a very mediocre 0.885 SV% at 4on5. Assuming that stat isn't wholly dependent on team effects, a return to form by Kipper would go a long way to helping the PK out.
Naturally, the surrounding skaters do exert a sizable measure of influence on PK success or failure. There were a number obvious issues that led the Flames lack luster penalty kill:
- Struggles of Stephane Yelle and Marcus Nilson. Two guys who were either injured, or strugged to regain their form after injury last year. Both are highly capable defensive forwards when they're on their games.
- Rhett Warrener's presence on the PK. Ignoring Brad Stuart, Warrener averaged the 2nd most SH minutes (3:20/game) of any Calgary blueliner behind Robyn Regehr (4:13/game). This, despite the fact he was frequently hobbled by chronic injuries that slowed him significantly. Warrener was never the best skater or puck mover even in the prime of life - slowed by pain and restricted by the obstruction crack-down, Rhettsky was frequently detrimental on the ice last year. He had problems keeping up with the play, battling in the corners and, especially, clearing the puck. If the additions of Aucoin and Sarich (and the development of Phaneuf) can reduce Warrener's SH ice-time, Im willing to bet the PK will be all the better for it.
- Robyn Regehr's difficulty acclimating to life without Jordan Leopold. Reggie had issues for the first half of the season, particularly on the PK. He made a number of simple errors during that time frame that had me thinking I had overestimated his abilities. Of course, he was also paired with less-than-capable partners those days as well: first Dion Phaneuf and then the aforementioned Rhett Warrener. He really settled down after Brad Stuart was brought in and was easily the best defender down the stretch. He finished the season with a team leading +27 rating and was far and away the best defenseman at oppressing goals against (1.87 GA/60).
As such, I believe if Regehr is consistently paired with a capable partner the PK will markedly improve.
(The man for the job looks to be Corey Sarich. He led the Lightning in terms of average SH minutes last year and was on of the best on the team in terms of GA/60 rates).
Of course, the most pressing team weakness last season was the abysmal road performance. Everything about the Flames was MUCH WORSE away from the saddledome: power play (20.5% vs 15.6%), penalty kill (82.3% vs. 78.7%), goals for (142 vs. 113) and goals against (91 vs. 130). That's right...the Flames were +51 at home and -17(!) on the road. That's an incredible 68 point differential.
Coaching issues and such aside, the kind of Jekyll and Hyde routine evidenced above is so absurdly lopsided it can't possibly continue into 07/08. Not to that degree. The rules favoring the home team as they do means almost everyone experiences a drop in their stats on the road - but I'm betting you'd be hard pressed to find another club in the league that differed this widely.
With the addition of Keenan, the demoting of Playfair and the jettisoning of dead weight from the bottom-six, I expect the Flames to be at least passable away from the Dome in 07/08. Is a 0.500 road record too much ask from this roster? I don't think so...
Anyways, those are my rather rambling thoughts on the subject(s). Overall, I think all signs point to "improvement"....
Feel free to disagree in the comments.
