Friday, February 26, 2010

The Fragile Sensibilities of Self Important Ninnies

I was going to publish a reaction to the recent IOC "furor" over the Women's Ice Hockey Gold Medal celebration, but SI does it for me:

The Olympic champs were still wearing their gold medals — but they were also holding beers, champagne bottles and stogies, and taking tons of pictures. I cut off my live blog of the game at the medal ceremony, and started a new post on the Molson Party, which is the most authentically cool celebration I’ve seen at these Games.

And to what-ever beuracrats, hypocrites or busy-bodies are put off by the supposed "poor sportsmanship" or *gasp* the shocking evils of an 18 year old drinking champagne...kindly go f*** yourselves.

Christ. Of all the stupid bullshit to worry about.

Thursday, February 25, 2010

On Corsi

This post is directed at a certain audience, but perhaps it'll be useful for others.

Corsi is becoming a bit more understood and mainstream these days, but there remains a lot of folks who are confused by it. This will be my attempt to clarify the stat. What it means and how it's useful in analysis.

What it is

Let's start with a simple definition. "Corsi" is the difference between all shots directed at net for and against at even strength. That is (shots+blocked shots+goals+missed shots FOR - SH+BLK+G+MS AGAINST). The purpose of the stat is to determine possession. It is, in fact, a proxy for "zone time". A positive corsi rate = more offensive zone time. Negative = more defensive zone time.

Here's an analogy that might help. Let's say a hockey game is a tug of war. Corsi is the how far right or left of center the rope is. On an individual level, it's an expression of which players are really pulling the rope. Therefore, if your team has a positive corsi rate, it means they are spending more time in the offensive zone at even stregth. It means they are pulling the rope harder than the opposition.

Why it's useful


In general, two things determine goals for (GF) and goals against (GA) in hockey: volume and frequency. Volume is the amount of shots a team generates and allows. Frequency is how often a team scores or allows goals on those shots. What we're learning in the NHL is that the former is far more repeatable and indicative of skill than the latter. Let's put it another way...

Goals are relatively random events in the game. On any given night, 60-80 pucks may be directed at the net at both ends. Maybe 5-10 goals will be scored. As a result, goals are statistically less powerful because the sample size is small. This means that randomness has a far greater influence. And what we've discovered at the NHL level is that percentages (SH% and SV%) tend to regress to the mean over the long term. As a result, a team that is winning via high frequencies is said to be "riding the percentages" and their success is probably based on randomness or "luck".

Another example. We all know that the chances of a flipped coin landing on heads is 50%. However, it's entirely possible that a coin will land on heads 7 or 8 times in a ten flip sample. This is not indicative of a special coin or special "coin flipping skill". It's variance. As such, we can say with confidence that over, say, 1000 flips, we'll get back down to the 50-50 split.

Volume, or outshooting (corsi) is far more powerful statistically, however, and therefore less skewed by randomness. So, whereas percentages tend to regress to the mean, outshooting is far more stable and therefore indicative of a team's (or players) abilities. The evidence of corsi's value is being investigated by smarter men than me these days, but the evidence continues to pile up. Corsi correlates strongly with scoring chances. It also correlates highly with outscoring (0.65) over the course of the season. From the latter link, JLikens explains that outshooting explains 40% of the variance in EV scoring. Almost half. That's regardless of of things like goaltending ability or the percentage of shots a team has blocked versus what they get on net. It also excludes randomness as we discussed above.

Corsi is a long range stat. A team can outshoot the bad guys in a single game or even a series of games and still lose. The hockey gods can be arbitrary. But, eventually, outshooting teams will win more than they lose. And the more time they spend in the offensive zone, the better they are, the more they'll win.

Evaluating individual players with corsi is a little trickier, because circumstances can elevate or sink skaters, depending. The checking center or shut down defender who starts every shift in his own zone against superstars is bound to have a lousy rate, for example. But that's probably a discussion for another time.

I hope this helped clarify things.

Patrick Thoresen, The Norse Bargain

One guy getting some attention this Olympics is Norway's leading scorer, Patrick Thoresen. The one time Flyer/Oiler appeared in a 100 NHL games, put up marginal results and fled to Europe when no one stepped up to re-sign him.

He's knocked it out of the park over there. This season, he's managed 21 goals and 52 points in 53 games for Ufa of the KHL. He's 7th overall in scoring there.

Of course, maybe he's just one of those guys who can dominate in lower leagues but never make it over the hump in the NHL. Maybe, but if you look at his underlying numbers during his final season in the NHL, there's a suggestion he was already finding his feet on this side of the pond:

Corsi: +3.87
Rel Corsi: +12.8
QUAL COMP: +0.027
ESP/60: 1.15
PDO: 93.2 (!)

Aside from the scoring rate, those are strong advanced stats for a guy who was in his second year in the league. The percentages were also pretty cruel to Thoresen that year and explain why his counting stats were so poor (that and bottom 6 ice time of course).

For further context, consider the fact that Thoresen scored 108 points in 71 games during his final year in the QMJHL. He fled to the SEL after that and managed 17 goals and 36 points in 50 games as a 23 year old. Desjardins rates the SEL at about .59 in his league equivalencies, meaning Thoresen's expected output in the NHL as a 23 year old would have been about 35 points, based on his output in Sweden. That's no homerun, but it's decent just the same.

I don't know what Thoresen's commitments are like in Russia, but if he's willing to give the NHL another shot this off-season, he'd probably cost pennies on the dollar relative to the other guys in the free agent market.

Bourque Extension Coverage

My take on the recent contract here.

M&G conversation on the topic here.

My article back in December on why the Flames need to re-sign Bourque here.

Some final words:

There's no question this is a controversial signing given the 6 year term. There's also no question whatsoever that Bourque is worth the money right now, however, and any claim to the contrary is wrong. Bourque has driven results since he arrived in Calgary. Full stop.

The issue real is the deferral of risk. It actually strikes me as rational decision making. There are uncertainties surrounding Bourque's prospective performance, especially in years 4-6 of the contract. No one really knows where the Flames will be at that time in terms of needs/cap position either. That said, Sutter does know the demands of the club today and going forward into the near future (next season) and has concluded (rightly) that Bourque, at a 3.3M cap hit, makes sense for the club. He's underpaid relative to his current contributions and there's almost no chance the organization could have replaced him via the free agent market this off-season. At least, not anywhere near this price point. So, Sutter trades an increase in future risk for circumstances that are favorable currently.

Flames Scoring Chances, Game 55 versus Edmonton

Scoring Chances for NHL Game Number 20815

TeamPeriodTimeNoteCGYOpponent
EDM116:56 317202228341227404477895v5
CGY116:1616 goal46121634601018343740715v5
EDM17:36EDM goal67202334 1319374071894v5
CGY16:4117 goal34121617211322404477785v5
CGY16:12 47212334451227404477895v5
CGY14:02 36101133341327404143785v5
CGY11:51 34212334451619374067715v5
CGY218:27 57122123341618404167715v5
CGY215:59 317202228341619404143675v5
EDM215:00 46121634601227374071895v5
CGY213:1316 goal46121622341218404477895v5
EDM212:42 321232834451619404143675v5
CGY212:293 goal321232834451216194041435v5
CGY210:53 57102033341018344044775v5
CGY210:22 510112834601618344043445v5
EDM27:22 57101133341018343740715v5
CGY26:00 351217213410344043 5v3
CGY25:49 351217213410344043 5v3
CGY24:49 351217213416194043 5v3
CGY24:4812 goal351217213416194043 5v3
CGY318:15 420222834 1216273740714v5
EDM317:42 412162834601322404143675v5
EDM314:40 46111634601322374071785v5
EDM313:18 67172034 1216273740774v5
CGY310:2212 goal46121634601619374043675v5
CGY35:35 57101133341322374077785v5
CGY34:36 46212334451018344043715v5
CGY34:05 321232834451018344043715v5
CGY32:48 57172022341018374043 5v4


#PlayerEVPPSH
3D. PHANEUF16:56620:19000:0100
4J. BOUWMEESTER17:22731:06003:2210
5M. GIORDANO13:59411:40103:2100
6C. SARICH12:42520:51003:5202
7A. PARDY14:17411:09104:1902
10B. MCGRATTAN9:55410:00000:0000
11F. SJOSTROM9:52320:00000:0000
12J. IGINLA12:23521:10000:0500
16D. BOYD12:30430:52000:2400
17R. BOURQUE10:24211:09106:0001
20C. GLENCROSS10:37211:46105:1212
21O. JOKINEN11:57710:03000:0000
22D. LANGKOW10:34211:09105:0910
23E. NYSTROM13:46611:12002:5001
28R. REGEHR16:47430:27004:4510
33B. PRUST10:07310:00000:0000
34M. KIPRUSOFF45:421462:43109:5012
45J. LUNDMARK12:08510:33000:0000
60M. BACKLUND13:08330:27000:0000


PeriodTotalsEVPP5v3 PPSH5v3 SH
1525100000100
21036300400000
3634210001100
4000000000000
Totals21815610401200


Due to the craziness that followed it, I was unable to get to counting scoring chances for this game previously.

The Flames won handily in all facets. Nice way for Dion to end his time with the Flames I'd say.

Monday, February 22, 2010

Canada Loses to the US - Let the Hand Wringing Begin!

Canada lost to the US in a fashion that has become disturbingly familiar for Flames fans this year - out-shoot, out-chance, lose anyways. Lots of fingers are pointing at Brodeur this morning (and fair enough, he wasn't good), but Flames fans will tell you that even excellent goaltending won't always deliver the "W" at the end.

Us basement-dwelling bloggers who point to the effect of chance on outcomes in the short term (ie; it's significant) have been somewhat vindicated over the last 2 Canada games. The good guys have doubled up on both the shots and scoring chances (at least) and come away with a narrow S/O win and a loss. And that's just the way it goes sometimes folks, now matter how good you are, how good your coaching is or how much "leadership and character" you have. It's what makes hockey interesting and infuriating.

Brodeur struggled last night, sure, but at least two of the American's point shots hit things on their way into the net. They could have easily bounced off a pad or stick and gone wide. At the other end of the ice, the opposite happened for most of the evening. The bounces are capricious. They are unmoved by debates on national character.

Some other observations:

- I long ago abandoned the concept of "chemistry" in hockey. Usually it's just shorthand for "scoring". It describes little more than that and it's predicted by almost nothing. You get chemistry in all of two ways - with the percentages or with good players playing with each other. The former can overcome the latter. As such, I'm not going to tie myself into knots over who should be playing with whom on the basis of "chemistry". Put the guys who are playing well on the ice and the rest will sort itself out.

- Including Pronger and Neidermayer on this team is looking like a mistake. They've both clearly lost a step. I don't know if swapping them out for, say, Bouwmeester and Green would make the team that much better, but there's almost no chance it would hurt them either.

Friday, February 19, 2010

Quote of the Day

Bottom-up thinkers...focus on the complexity of the underlying systems, and resist the urge to over-simplify the situation by focusing too much on the people in charge (or lack thereof).


Via Bottom-up.

Thursday, February 18, 2010

More Personal Stuff

After a year heading the ship over at SBN, I've been recruited to be the managing editor for Flames Nation. As such, the bulk of my Flamescentric thoughts will be found there from now on. I will continue to add my general musings here as well as Flames scoring chances, but almost everything else will appear at my new digs.

Saturday, February 13, 2010

Flames Scoring Chances, Game 62 Versus Anaheim

Scoring Chances for NHL Game Number 20914

TeamPeriodTimeNoteCGYOpponent
CGY118:30 321222628341791011195v5
CGY115:26 5711121834110112734395v5
CGY114:21 32122262834178917195v5
ANA19:32 4611121834110112734395v5
ANA17:46 31215283460122272834505v5
ANA17:35ANA goal31215283460122272834505v5
ANA17:23 31218283460122272834505v5
CGY17:10 3519202334120223450535v5
CGY13:1923 goal461519233418172133535v5
CGY218:44 462122263417101119395v5
CGY217:48 311121828341892027345v5
ANA217:28 35121820341892027345v5
ANA217:27 35121820341892021535v5
CGY217:3812 goal35111218341892027345v5
ANA216:20 4615253460178919205v5
ANA215:17 418202834 18101127344v5
ANA214:51 420232834 18101127344v5
ANA213:47 56182034 18101127344v5
CGY210:28 56202334 1891927334v5
CGY28:31 5612153460113212227285v5
CGY26:0312 goal3111218283419172733345v5
CGY23:28 4611192334110283439535v5
CGY318:55 41112182634122273439 5v4
CGY317:52 352021223417192228 5v4
CGY317:18 51521222834110112734505v5
CGY310:26 461112183419101921285v5
ANA310:01 3111218283418202733345v5
CGY38:27 57212226341781719335v5
CGY36:39 57212534601791920335v5
CGY35:16 46181920341791719395v5
CGY34:49 46181920341791719395v5
ANA34:30 462123263418112733345v5
ANA30:03 341112183489102027345v5


#PlayerEVPPSH
3I. WHITE17:08671:34100:1300
4J. BOUWMEESTER17:46641:33102:2102
5M. GIORDANO20:40722:03101:2611
6C. SARICH15:09730:20001:2611
7A. PARDY15:15300:25000:0000
11N. HAGMAN13:17631:48100:1300
12J. IGINLA15:43682:27100:0000
15N. DAWES13:53330:17000:0000
18M. STAJAN14:06762:27101:2602
19J. MAYERS9:54500:00000:2700
20C. GLENCROSS8:15321:21102:4013
21C. HIGGINS15:38610:49100:5400
22D. LANGKOW15:52501:33100:2300
23E. NYSTROM9:19310:00001:3711
25D. MOSS13:26110:00000:2000
26A. KOTALIK13:35411:58100:0000
28R. REGEHR17:45540:41002:3402
34M. KIPRUSOFF52:0017104:00204:0013
60M. BACKLUND13:19240:44000:0000


PeriodTotalsEVPP5v3 PPSH5v3 SH
1545400000000
2766300001300
3836320000000
4000000000000
Totals2013171020001300


Dominating night for Calgary. Removing Getzlaf from the roster is a big blow for the Ducks.

Tuesday, February 09, 2010

Flames Scoring Chances, Game 60 Versus Ottawa

Scoring Chances for NHL Game Number 20879

TeamPeriodTimeNoteCGYOpponent
CGY118:44 46212226341214172627305v5
CGY118:01 41112182634422243073 5v4
CGY115:03 46162334451214172627305v5
CGY113:06 4521222634911141719305v5
CGY113:01 4521222634911141719305v5
OTT111:44 37161923341830394143455v5
OTT19:29 46212226341214172627305v5
CGY19:11 46212226341214172627305v5
OTT17:54 316192328341830394143455v5
OTT17:53 316192328341830394143455v5
OTT14:21 56161920342225303945735v5
OTT13:30 4616192334418243041435v5
OTT13:23 4616192334418243041435v5
CGY13:1011 goal3111218283449111924305v5
OTT12:48OTT goal4521222634412242627305v5
CGY12:28 4521222634412242627305v5
OTT12:00 4521222634412242627305v5
CGY10:26 4511121834418243041435v5
CGY219:33 3111218283449111924305v5
CGY216:4318 goal31112182834411192430415v5
OTT214:47 57203445601217252630395v5
OTT214:36 316192328341422253045735v5
OTT213:06 46212226341726273039435v5
CGY212:47 46212226341726273039435v5
OTT211:58 4620263460914193041455v5
CGY211:36 5720344560914193041455v5
OTT210:25OTT goal34181923341718253039735v5
OTT210:02 4511121834411122224305v5
OTT29:48 4511121834411122224305v5
OTT25:59 31112182834411122224305v5
OTT23:24OTT goal5720344560914193039415v5
OTT22:05 34222634 1119243045 4v4
CGY21:26 37182134 917243043 4v4
OTT319:20 31112182834411122224305v5
OTT314:56 5720344560917193041455v5
OTT311:26 31112182834411122224305v5
OTT310:16 4621222634917193041455v5
OTT35:18 31112182834412222425305v5
CGY32:57 4511121834411122224305v5
CGY30:21 35111218 411171927304v5


#PlayerEVPPSH
3I. WHITE21:584100:25001:1710
4J. BOUWMEESTER23:329121:35101:3000
5M. GIORDANO18:06680:25000:5810
6C. SARICH15:44470:00000:3900
7A. PARDY12:38240:00000:3900
11N. HAGMAN15:52561:35101:1710
12J. IGINLA16:44561:54100:5910
16D. BOYD8:02170:00000:0000
18M. STAJAN16:37671:35101:5810
19J. MAYERS7:14080:06000:0900
20C. GLENCROSS12:33150:00000:3500
21C. HIGGINS16:50750:25000:4000
22D. LANGKOW16:44660:25001:3400
23E. NYSTROM7:12170:00000:3900
26A. KOTALIK16:35671:35100:1900
28R. REGEHR17:27370:00001:3000
34M. KIPRUSOFF54:3414242:00102:2700
45J. LUNDMARK13:22230:00000:0000
60M. BACKLUND13:40140:00000:0000


PeriodTotalsEVPP5v3 PPSH5v3 SH
1998910000000
251051000000000
3251500001000
4000000000000
Totals1624142410001000


Senators had the reffing and the bounces in their favor, but that's usually what happens when you win the chances battle. Flames got progressively worse as the night wore on, despite the fact they were chasing for the entire second half.

Saturday, February 06, 2010

Flames Scoring Chances, Game 59 Versus Tampa Bay

Scoring Chances for NHL Game Number 20863

TeamPeriodTimeNoteCGYOpponent
TBL118:06 35162034 413143077 4v4
TBL116:15 717232834 69122630914v5
CGY115:46 351112183448131419305v5
TBL113:56 35222634 45303991 4v4
TBL111:21 421222834 69122630914v5
TBL110:03 4192022283445131930775v5
CGY14:47 411121826341214193077 5v4
CGY14:175 goal3516203460511303944 5v4
CGY11:33 3711121834512303944 5v4
CGY11:07 3711121834512283039445v5
CGY213:05 461112183448131417305v5
CGY211:00 5719212234511123039445v5
CGY210:42 4611121834511123039445v5
TBL28:27 341112183459263032915v5
CGY26:58 3162028346048131419305v5
CGY25:10 4611121834617283039775v5
CGY23:45 45192234 69122630914v5
CGY23:20 45212234 69122630914v5
CGY22:55 46202334 69122630914v5
TBL319:01TBL goal4611192234926303277915v5
TBL318:40 4616203460413193032775v5
CGY315:47 3162023283448131419305v5
TBL34:06 5711121834511123039445v5
TBL30:28 462122233459263039915v5
TBL44:36 312182834 512133039 4v4
CGY43:13 611222834 4691430 4v4
TBL43:04TBL goal620222834 49143039 4v4


#PlayerEVPPSH
3I. WHITE18:54441:11200:0900
4J. BOUWMEESTER19:58355:10104:0431
5M. GIORDANO18:31231:41102:0620
6C. SARICH11:34440:00002:3710
7A. PARDY10:46210:27101:3501
11N. HAGMAN14:57634:42200:0600
12J. IGINLA17:20534:42200:0000
16D. BOYD7:35220:53100:0800
17R. BOURQUE0:03000:10000:3901
18M. STAJAN17:40534:42200:1600
19J. MAYERS13:09120:00001:5310
20C. GLENCROSS14:40241:03102:1910
21C. HIGGINS14:33110:00003:0511
22D. LANGKOW17:09250:00002:4321
23E. NYSTROM10:50110:00003:0111
26A. KOTALIK1:55013:01100:0000
28R. REGEHR20:16330:00003:3902
34M. KIPRUSOFF49:089105:45307:0532
60M. BACKLUND10:05111:03100:0000


PeriodTotalsEVPP5v3 PPSH5v3 SH
1552330000200
2815100003000
3141400000000
4121200000000
Totals151291030003200


Flames were walking away with the game until they fell into the "dreaded shell" in the third period. Didn't help that the refs stop calling penalties on T-bay after the Flames scored on the PP, of course.