Thursday, April 29, 2010

Second Round Predictions, 2010

I know, I know...why bother, when I got almost the entire Eastern Conference wrong? Well, because I went 4-4 in the West, you smarmy git (as the British would say).

East

PIT vs MTL

The Canadiens are the worst team left in the playoffs. Their upset of the Capitals was remarkable...in that is was incredibly lucky and little else. Only COL got outshot more in the first round. So unless Halak continues to post a .940 SV%, there's little chance the Habs make it out of the second round, even if the Penguins aren't quite as good as the Capitals.

Pittsburgh in 5

PHI vs BOS

Not a lot to choose from between these two teams, especially when the Flyers supposed weak spot (Brian Boucher) wasn't a weak spot at all in round 1. That said, the Flyers lost Carter and Gagne while the Bruins gained Savard. That likely tips the scales in Boston's favor.

BOS in 7

West

SJS vs DET

Really tough choice here. Flip a coin. I think Detroit might actually be the better team from top-to-bottom, but there's not a lot of separation here. It may just depend on whether who out of Nabakov or Howard is less mediocre. For now, I'll go...

SJS in 6.

CHI vs VAN

The Blackhawks looked mortal in the first couple of games of the Nashville series, but slowly started to take things over as the games progressed. I still think they're the best team in the league (even with Niemi in net) and should be able to take the Canucks down. Again.

CHI in 6.

Wednesday, April 28, 2010

Staples, MacKinnon and Sports Journalism

David Staples has an interesting piece on the changing landscape of sports journalism this morning. Of note is the fact that the beat writer's job was transforming before the advent of the internet and user-generated content:

In response to TV, sports journalists started to spend less time writing about the exact details of the game. Instead, for good and for ill, they focused more on what the athletes and coaches had to say both before and after games. I'd guess that the majority of column inches in newspapers for several decades have been devoted to such musings. It's the rare writer who still produces a well-told, blow-by-blow narrative account of the game, or even makes the attempt.

David goes on to discuss how the wide availability of televised games, slow-motion replays and PVR's has granted increased observational power to the average viewer, powers perhaps superior to the live observer.

The most interesting part of the article may actually be the comment section where veteran Edmonton scribe John MacKinnon makes a case for the beat writer to continue to "show up" for games:

Showing up doesn't just mean being in the press box (where replays are readily available), it means showing up in the locker room after games, at practice on off-days, taking people to lunch (exceedingly rare these days), catching guys coming into the arena pre-game, pre-practice, post-game, calling contacts at home or on cell phones, texting people, whatever keeps you in contact.

It's reading body language in the locker room, catching the locker-room give-and-take, getting a sense of who's close with who, and who is disliked.

It's being there when the coach cusses out an error-prone player at practice, then talking with both of them post-practice

On and on and on.

The reporter's first responsibility is to the story, actually, to getting as close as possible to the truth under often complicated circumstances and on deadline, day after day. It is not necessarily to the consumer.


I sympathize with MacKinnon, who also discusses the compromises the beat reporter with access must sometimes make in order to maintain a relationship with the team. However, Tyler responds in the same comment section and his misgivings on the subject reflect my own.

As far as getting close goes, closeness comes with a price, which a lot of members of the Edmonton sporting press seem happy to ignore while pretending that the closeness is all important. If what getting as close to the subject as possible gets me, as a media consumer, is media guys who are compromised all over the place, pull punches in opinion pieces and stories peppered with stock quotes and obvious observations from the participants, guys who APOLOGIZE after asking an unexpected question, who cares about it?

What we have here is the contrast between journalism in principle versus journalism in practice. Everything MaKinnon says in his comment strikes me as credible...except that, as Tyler says, beat writers rarely farm anything of value from their access these days. When was the last time, for instance, any ink-stained wretch in Calgary produced a hard hitting expose of the Flames supposed locker room issues? A couple of seasons ago, the team was able to mostly conceal the fact that Alex Tanguay had requested a trade and was unhappy with his role on the club. Sure, there were trade rumors during the year - but they were often breathlessly reported, without attribution, by the likes of Pierre McGuire during in-game color commentary. So either the press club in town didn't know about any of this, or were persuaded to keep silent on the matter. Either way, their showing up for each and every game was useless to me, the consumer without access.

More recently, rumors of dressing room discontent ran rampant throughout town. We still have no real idea of the true culprit or the meat of the issue(s). Was Phaneuf roundly hated? Was it Jokinen? Was it conflict that sparked the mid-season rebuild? Sutter and King hinted obtusely at such things during their year-end presser, but there's never been any real explication of the matter. So, again, either the beat guys in town have no idea (and that's very probable. To Sutter, press relations and mushroom farming are basically the same thing) or they "weren't allowed" to share the info. Whatever the case, the truth stays buried and what we're left with is stock quotes, press releases and innuendo.

There's probably still some value to having access - a connected journo can ask a GM or coach if trade rumor X or Y is in any way true or credible for instance (although that's probably fruitless in CGY as well for the reason parenthetically stated above). A sit down interview with a player or prospect can yield worthwhile information, depending on what questions are being asked too.

Beyond those functions, however, I will remain dubious of the value of "showing up and getting close to the story". If there's insider narratives to be had from observing the culture of the dressing and such, prove it. Until then, I'll continue to skip the fish wraps.

Tuesday, April 13, 2010

2010 Playoff Prognostications

Picking winners in the post-season is a fools errand because almost anything can happen in a 7 game series. Of course, that never stops any of us now does it?

East


MTL vs WAS

I regard the Canadiens as one of the weakest clubs in the playoffs this year. Goaltending and their perennially hot PP kept them above the water line, but just barely. They have a terrible shot differential and extremely lackluster forward depth. They suffered through some health issues which likely put a dent in the underlying numbers, but even healthy I can't see them beating the Caps (unless Theodore blows up completely).

Washington in 5.

NJD vs PHI

The Devils were somewhat mediocre after the Olympic break, while the Flyers were somewhat mediocre all year, although a think a large measure of Philadelphia's problems were percentage-based (ie; luck) and the lack of a true starting goalie. So while I think this could have been a good series had PHI been starting, say, Emery, there's little chance that Boucher out-duels Broduer.

NJD in 6.

BOS vs BUF

The Bruins came back down to earth despite the fact that Tuuka Rask became a legit goalie this year. The Sabres, probably the best team not to make the dance last year, deserve to be where they are (although I wouldn't bet on Miller reproducing this season next year). Without Savard in the line-up, I don't give Boston much hope in this one.

BUF in 6.

PIT vs OTT

The Senators don't impress me at all. They rode a very fortunate winning streak to their current position, but have been fairly unimpressive otherwise. Their goaltending is crap, their forward and defensive depth is "meh" and they'll be facing two of the best forwards on the planet in the first round.

No way they advance.

Pittsburgh in 5.

WEST

SJS vs COL

I think both clubs are relatively lucky to be in the position they're in: San Jose to win the division and Colorado to make the playoffs. That said, the Sharks are the better team from tip to stern. Unless the bounces start favoring the Avs again (with extreme prejudice) the Cinderella story ends here.

SJS in 6.

CHI vs NSH

It's remarkable the Predators are in the playoffs at all given their line-up and budget restraints. That said, the Blackhawks are the WC juggernauts (despite their goaltending issues) and I expect them to roll over the Preds in short order.

Chicago in 4.

VCR vs LAK

This could be the most contentious first round match-up. I like aspects of both teams, including the top 6 forward depth for both. However, both also have their holes (Canucks bottom end of the roster, injuries to the blueline...Kings goaltending and medicore defensive depth) so there's no clear winner here. If Luongo can't get back on the horse, the Canucks are in trouble. However, an elite Luongo can also probably be the difference.

Vancouver in 7.

DET vs PHX

The Coyotes won a lot of shoot-outs this year (14!), so their point total is no doubt inflated. That said, they have pretty decent underlying stats across the board so they aren't pretenders like, say, the Ottawa Senators. I think almost any other match-up would have been more favorable for them however. The Red Wings are finally healthy and the percentages have swung back into their favor (after struggling under the weight of the bounces for most of the first half). Datsyuk, Zetterberg and Franzen are still outstanding and there's just no response for that level of skill on the Coyotes side. I'll be cheering for the Desert Dogs in this one, but I wouldn't put money on them.

DET in 6.

Sunday, April 04, 2010

Flames Scoring Chances, Game 79 Versus Chicago

Scoring Chances for NHL Game Number 21176

TeamPeriodTimeNoteCGYOpponent
CGY119:48 3111218283447101931815v5
CHI117:06CHI goal4111218273447314655825v5
CGY110:58 561112183447101931815v5
CGY19:56 561726346027113136 5v4
CHI17:58 11121827283445193181885v5
CHI15:07 3111218283447101931815v5
CGY14:35 4121525273427223136815v5
CGY14:34 4121525273427223136815v5
CHI13:30 423242834 27313233884v5
CHI12:32 523252734 410161931814v5
CHI12:14 523252734 410161931814v5
CHI10:55CHI goal3121724283427223136885v5
CGY215:53 31112182834210193133815v5
CGY213:52 4152425273426314655825v5
CHI211:48 3111218283447101931815v5
CHI210:18 41726273460231333655885v5
CGY28:34 461524253456314655825v5
CHI27:18 418232834 410161931814v5
CGY25:30 451118283427223132885v5
CHI24:51 4111218273447101931815v5
CHI24:29CHI goal3172628346027223136885v5
CGY23:273 goal3172628346056223136885v5
CGY318:43 41524252734222313336885v5
CHI316:29 41923273442210193133815v5
CGY313:53 31117182834211163133825v5
CGY39:44 4122425273447223136885v5
CGY39:12 5617263460222313336465v5
CGY38:41 3121524283447101931815v5
CHI37:30 4111825273456315582885v5
CGY37:11 5611182534231335582885v5
CGY36:29 5617263460211163132335v5
CGY33:46 3121724283447111631325v5
CHI32:47CHI goal3411182534210193133815v5


#PlayerEVPPSH
3I. WHITE19:13650:52000:0000
4J. BOUWMEESTER20:06761:07002:4902
5M. GIORDANO17:43500:50100:5902
6C. SARICH14:30500:10101:4600
11N. HAGMAN17:51671:10000:1300
12J. IGINLA19:27861:10000:0000
15N. DAWES13:34600:00000:0000
17R. BOURQUE15:31530:50100:2600
18M. STAJAN17:44671:26002:0001
19J. MAYERS6:31010:00000:0000
23E. NYSTROM7:15010:00003:0704
24C. CONROY13:18610:00001:3101
25D. MOSS12:58720:00001:2802
26A. KOTALIK16:51320:50100:0000
27S. STAIOS17:43560:58001:5802
28R. REGEHR17:37750:03002:0202
34M. KIPRUSOFF51:4617112:00104:4704
42B. SUTTER5:38010:00000:4900
60M. BACKLUND14:02320:34100:0000


PeriodTotalsEVPP5v3 PPSH5v3 SH
1574410000300
2555400000100
3838300000000
4000000000000
Totals1815171110000400


Calgary with their best effort by this metric in awhile. Of course, they lost the game 4-1. Chasing in the third bumped the chances count in their favor, but they were neck-and-neck with a very good team up until that point anyways. All of the Flames primary difference makers were actually in the black for a change as well.

Saturday, April 03, 2010

Flames Scoring Chances, Game 78 Versus Colorado

Scoring Chances for NHL Game Number 21162

TeamPeriodTimeNoteCGYOpponent
CGY117:59 5615253460910234152885v5
COL114:19 312172834601025263241525v5
CGY112:04 5615242534437414455595v5
CGY110:17 35172634601018394152 5v4
CGY15:52 35121825342227323741 5v4
COL13:47 6111218283449253941445v5
COL12:49 56172634602227374155595v5
COL12:06 31524252834432374144595v5
CGY217:3315 goal56152425342227323741595v5
CGY214:11 56233442 49232641884v5
COL29:54 5611121834416183241445v5
COL21:19 417262734601023263941525v5
CGY317:5017 goal56172634601037415255595v5
COL312:30COL goal311121828341025262739415v5
COL39:49 5611192334927414459885v5
COL36:57 411121827342227374155595v5
COL35:56 315242528341025263941445v5
CGY34:13 31726283460425373941525v5


#PlayerEVPPSH
3I. WHITE16:37143:09200:0000
4J. BOUWMEESTER20:19022:57001:1200
5M. GIORDANO15:17433:02200:4810
6C. SARICH16:10440:59000:4810
11N. HAGMAN17:31051:19000:0000
12J. IGINLA16:12052:52100:0400
15N. DAWES13:45320:19000:0000
17R. BOURQUE15:00232:49100:2600
18M. STAJAN16:07042:52100:0400
19J. MAYERS6:38010:00000:0000
23E. NYSTROM8:09010:00000:5110
24C. CONROY15:19220:19000:3900
25D. MOSS13:07322:52101:0500
26A. KOTALIK14:21222:49100:0000
27S. STAIOS17:47021:52000:0000
28R. REGEHR17:50150:01001:1200
34M. KIPRUSOFF52:005106:00202:0010
42B. SUTTER6:23000:00000:5110
60M. BACKLUND13:28331:49100:0000


PeriodTotalsEVPP5v3 PPSH5v3 SH
1442420000000
2221200001000
3242400000000
4000000000000
Totals81051020001000


The lowest event game of the season featured a lot of shots from outside the scoring areas by both teams, but not much else. The Flames with an appalling 5 ES scoring chances, but win the game thanks to some favorable bounces and outstanding goaltending by Kipper in the third.

Iginla et al with another oh-fer night. Calgary's "first line" is absolutely abysmal right now.