Charting the UFA Insanity

I'll keep this post going through the bonanza tomorrow and maybe the rest of the off-season, depending on where the most interesting deals land. Previously, one had to wait until the actual day of the feeding frenzy to begin the analysis, but the festivities started early this year:

Day Two (July 1) (I've moved today's analysis to the top of the post) -

- WSH Mike Green signs for 5.25M for 5 years. That's a lot of cash for a kid that's only done it once and can't play defense yet. Time will tell if this is misstep or not.

- TSN also has the Langkow deal on their UFA tracker - apparently he's up to 4.5M/year over 4 years. That's a pretty good value contract, assuming Langkow can sustain his level of play. I like.

- Corey Perry, another RFA, cashes in with a 5.35M/year deal. Man Anaheim's going to be tight to the cap this season.

- Word is Edmonton has dealt Raffi Torres for Gilbert Brule. Im not a big Torres fan, but I'd say he's currently the superior player. Brule had some big expectations coming out of Junior, but he might have been totally ruined by the BJ's rushing along his development. He's been a fringe player - at best - since he made the leap. Oilers win this one if Brule somehow finds his footing in the Stinktown. If not, clear loss. For now, it looks to me like the Oilers get smaller and worse at ES (moreso).

- Good news everyone! Don't expect Eric Godard back in Flames colors next year. Now we just have to hope Sutter stays away from other slow-moving pugilists.

- Out of nowhere, Sutter acquires 26 year-old RFA Rene Bourque for a conditional draft pic. Like Greentree, Bourque is a LWer. Unlike Greentree, he's already an established NHLer. I dont know too much about him, but his stats suggest a 3rd line-type. Nystrom just got bumped down the depth chart I'd say.

I'm in favor of this move.

- The Alberta teams are wheeling and dealing today. Kevin Lowe trades Pitkanen to the Hurricanes for Eric Cole. Huge win for the Oil here. Pitkanen was showing signs of looking for a big pay-day as an RFA and his skills are probably already replicated on the Oilers roster now anyways. In return, they get an excellent player who can produce at ES. Cole's only problem is his penchant for getting hurt. Still, a big win for comb-over here.

- Word is TBL have somehow signed Radim Vrbata as well (3 years, 3M/year is the rumor). If you had a career season as a forward last year, T-bay wants you!! The question is, who the hell is going to play defense for this club next year??

- The NHL Network is reporting the Wild have (re-)signed Andrew Brunette (sorry Kyle) and traded for the Preds Marek Zidlicky. decent moves, depending on the costs. Zidlicky is a guy I've had my eyes on for awhile, so Im disappointed Minnesota got a hold of him.

- A couple hours in and all the big fish are still swimming. Mirtle is hearing whispers (via TSN) that Sundin is being offered 10M/year (!!). Sundins a great player, but that's ridiculous.

- The Pens have re-signed Mark Eaton for 2 years, 1M/year. Dirt cheap. There goes one of the guys from my bargain bin.

- Im hearing Kolzig is headed to - who else - Tampa Bay. Hey guys, maybe you didn't get the memo, but...Kolzig isn't very good. And he's 38. Might as well stick with Ramo and Smith.

- What Im actually waiting for today is the Giordano contract announcement. It's been a "done deal" in spirit for awhile now. Time to make it official.

- Looks like Jose Theodore has landed in Washington. Good bet Huet ends up in Colorado then.

- PHX plugs the Ballard hole by nabbing Kurt Sauer. Sauer was amongst the top 3 defenders on COL in terms of QUALCOMP last year and had the best ES +/- of any blueliner (+15). Seems like a good move.

- Here's an interesting question...which potential reprehensible signing would you dislike least, Flames fans:

1.) Darcy Tucker
2.) Todd Bertuzzi (Keenan favorite lets not forget -- puke!)
3.) Todd Fedoruk
4.) Sean Avery

- TSN says the Avs have signed FAILcroft. What in holy hell are they thinking? He's proven to be a hopeless starter and probably couldn't offer anything more than Budaj in the back-up role. Baffling.

- Speak of the Devil, PHX picks up Todd Fedoruk. One of my feared hypotheticals finds a home. Phew.

- More stuff coming down now. Huet signs in CHI of all places, leaving the Avs with the woeful duo of Raycroft and Budaj. Maybe they can broker a deal for the now displaced Bulin Wall. Stillman lands in FLA while PIT scoops up Godard.

- Toronto pays 3M+/year for Jeff Finger...a defender whose first full season came at age 29. And I thought they were getting wise out there.

- TSN reports that the Canucks have submitted an offer sheet to........David Backes!? WTF?

- Another sigh of relief: Darcy Tucker lands in Colorado for 2 years, 4.5M. That's two bullets dodged to today. YAY!

- The Lightning add ANOTHER forward by signing Adam Hall. This is getting ridiculous.

- Things seemed to have slowed down a tad. Lots of rumors about Sundin to Vancouver and Hossa to Edmonton (how would they afford that?), but nothing substantive.

- Is Brad Stuart @ 3.75M for Detroit the best deal of the day? Sauer's reasonable deal might be in the running too.

Worst contracts? Finger, for sure. Green, maybe, depending on if he can replicate his successes next year. Raycroft and Kolzig finding work in the NHL is dubious as well.

- A quote from an unnamed GM on TSN just now: "Im going home...this is the most bizarre free agent market I've ever seen."

- Looks like Soupy is going to CHI. Salary estimates hover around 7M/year (over a long term...think 8+ years). Campbell is NOT that good folks. It's a bad deal if true. Double plus bad, in fact.

- TSN stating someone (not the Flames) is offering Nolan 2M+ a year over 2 years (like the Tucker deal) or so. He played alright against tough competition last year, but his offensive rates were very pedestrian...not to mention the risk of "diminishing returns" for a player nearing the big 4-0.

- Rumor is that Tampa Bay might be shopping Mike Smith (??). That would be baffling and absurd.

- Had to take a break and a bunch of stuff went down while I was away. I think I'll leave an added punditry to tomorrow therefore. Parting shot: that Redden contract is awful.
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- The Circus, aka Tampa-Bay Lightning, made separate deals to acquire the bargaining rights to pending UFA's Ryan Malone, Gary Roberts and Brian Rolston last week. Improbably, those moves are already "bearing fruit":

• Feaster inked Malone to a mind-boggling 7 year, 31.5M contract. That's right, the Lightning have given a retirement contract to a 28 year-old player whose peak season of 51 points came on Evgeni Malkin's wing. Malone's stock climbed thanks to his 27 goals and frequent nose-breaking in the post-season, so many figured he'd be demanding something in the 4.5/5M area. Malone, who has averaged about 40 points as an NHL winger, is going to struggle to justify those dollars and that 7 year term is going to look very silly very quickly.


• Tampa Bay has also locked up the Gary Roberts with what is apparently an incentive-laden contract. Roberts is certainly a warrior - but an old warrior. He spent most of the last season injured or playing on the 4th line. He'd probably be more valuable as a coach than a player.


• Forgetting that they actually need defensemen, the Lightning also grabbed the aforementioned Rolston, but have yet to sign him. The ex-Wild forward is one of the more coveted UFA's this summer, despite being 35, and will probably cost more than Malone (in terms of per year dollars) to ink.

A few thoughts occur to me in light of Tampa Bay's pre-July machinations:

1.) Will other clubs start dealing for pending UFA's in the future? Aside from a few rare instances, trading for negotiating rights a few days before the July first deadline always seemed like a potential something for nothing proposition. If Feaster makes it 3 for 3 will other GM's start to consider it a worthwhile gamble?

2.) Should Rolston sign for a supposed $5M+/year, the Lightning will have about 30M committed to 10 forwards - and just under 15M committed to a blueline featuring Dan Boyle, Paul Ranger and a bunch of shlubs (Kuba, Lukowich, O'Brien, Picard, Lundin). Imbalance much?

3.) To what degree do Koules and Barrie take credit for these moves? It's pretty clear Feaster wasn't the guy who hired Barry Melrose to replace Tortorella. And one would assume Feaster had learned his lesson with big, long-term dollars after the Brad Richards albatross - except now we're looking at the Malone head-scratcher. I think we can guess that the Bolts GM has either had a very hot fire lit under his ass by the new regime, or he's simply been reduced to dancing on the end of strings.

- The Oil moved Jarret Stoll and Matt Green for PP-quarterback Lubomir Visnovsky late yesterday. Technically not really UFA related, but I feel compelled to comment anyways.

Lowe seemed to do well when looking at the guts of this deal: he got a very good player for a couple of not very good players (assuming Stoll doesn't bounce back). On the other hand, Edmonton now has 11M in cap-space invested in Sheldon Souray and Lubo-Viso (The Flames have 10.5M invested in Phaneuf and Regehr by comparison). Both defenders are excellent on the PP and neither are very capable at ES. Last season, Visnovsky faced easier opposition than Jack Johnson and Jon Klemm and still came out on the bad side of the ledger. Also, his new contract stretches to 2012/13 and apparently includes a NTC. That's a lot of dough locked up for a lot of time in two guys that can't take on the bad guy's big guns at even-strength.

Should make for a pretty good PP, I guess. Assuming Souray plays more than 25 games.

- Panthers sign young Rusty Olesz to a 6 year, 18.75M deal (3.125M/year). Management must be high on his potential because he certainly hasn't looked like a $3M player so far. His career high of 30 points in 3 seasons of play and constant injury problems sure make the Lombardi contract (1.817M/year) look pretty damn good. I've been tough on ol' Darryl recently but he certainly deserves credit for that deal.

- Word is coming down from Inside the Flames that Calgary has yet to formally buy-out Warrener (or anyone else for that matter)...with the deadline fast approaching. Not sure what to make of that - are all 3 guys to be buried in Quad Cities this year?

- Mirtle has a good post on the glut of teams that will be looking to spend big bucks this summer. The amount of big spenders (NYC, CLB, VCR, PIT, MIN, CHI, MTL, ATL) and the amounts they have to spend seems to outstrip the amount of worthwhile UFA's in my humble estimation.

Therefore: if Sutter could convince Aucoin to waive his NTC, there would likely be a market for him. An extra 4M would would come in handy: it could be used to re-sign Nolan and Vandermeer or land a Satan type player, for instance. Not to mention the fact that I dont think Aucoin will earn his money this coming season. The best time to get rid of bad value contracts is as soon as possible.

What this also means is it's going to be an effing GONG-SHOW tomorrow, and maybe the rest of the week. Expect someone to sign Wade Redden to some ridiculous contract and expect me to laugh my head off when they do.

- Adding to the Tampa-Bay Cluster-F is Vaclav Prospal, whom I completely forgot about until his announced signing today. No numbers were released, but I doubt he was cheap. That's 3/4 of "negotiating rights deals" locked up by Feaster so far.

Flames and Free Agency

Despite some big holes on the roster (2 top 6 forwards, a top 4 defenseman), Im actually hoping the Flames DONT make a splash in the shallow UFA pool this summer. For several reasons:

- With such a thin crop, the chances of getting a difference maker are slim-to-none. Outside of Hossa and Campbell (and even Campbell is stretching it), there aren't a lot of players that are going to have a deep impact on their new team going forward. In addition, the lack of quality will result in high demand/overvaluation/high price-tags for guys that probably won't be worth it in the long-run (see: Ryan Malone).

- The Flames are positioned to jettison some salary next summer (specifically, Adrian Aucoin's 4M) and may be able to take run at a more worthwhile UFA field then. A big contract to an average player this summer would make that less likely.

- While the ultimate goal is to win the Stanley Cup every year, many teams have to settle for more attainable objectives. Chicago and Phoenix, for instance, will probably be shooting for "just make the play-offs" this season.

Similarly, this should be a year of modest goals for the Calgary Flames. Chances are they won't be an elite team in 08/09 and should be looking at a "build/assess/maintain" strategy. Promote some prospects to the team and let some of the younger guys have a shot as difference makers (Boyd/Lombardi in the top 6, Phaneuf paired with Regehr), for example.

As such, Im hoping for one or two under-the-radar signings of cheaper, support-type players. Guys that can help the kids keep their heads above water but who won't be looking for big-dollar, long-term contracts. Targets should include established players who had bad or near career-worst seasons last year. Those kinds of players typically dont sign for big dollars and almost never sign for too long (since they'd like the chance to earn a larger number in the near future).

Some possibilities:

Michael Ryder - depending on how much interest he garners, Ryder coule be useful to the Flames. He's better than he showed last year and should be in-line to bounce-back, especially if he gets some decent PP time. He isn't that good at ES, but can be an asset if used properly.

Jason Williams - Everyone seems to have forgotten about Williams, even though he's just 27 and was on nearly a PPG pace last season before bowing out due to injury. He can play both center and wing and can quaterback a PP. His major weakness is he's fairly injury prone.

Miro Satan - Might become expensive if teams looking for offense get desperate this summer, though he might also slide under the radar. Satan had his worst season in the NHL last year (16-25-41), largely due to his worst ever shooting percentage (9.4) and lackluster teammates. He's one season removed from scoring 27 goals and is a 4 time 30+ goal scorer. Satan is also only 33, although it seems like he's been around forever. He might also be the best forward that no one is talking about.

Ruslan Fedotenko - Another NY Islander coming off a so-so season (hmmm...I see a pttaern here) Fedotenko isn't going to bring that much offense, but is fairly adept at taking on quality competition and keeping his head above water. He's fast and tenacious and may be a good linemate for Matthew Lombardi.

- Mark Eaton - although the Flames may be pretty much set on the blueline, Eaton could be a cheap but capable plug for that top 4 hole (Regehr, Phaneuf, Sarich -- Aucoin, Giordano). He was badly injured last year, but had been taking on tough competition up until that point (and doing pretty well at it - 1.94 GA/60). Eaton is like Hale in that he won't bring any offense to the table. Unlike Hale, though, he will be able to kill penalties and take on more than the other team's 3rd-liners. Assuming he's fully healed, Eaton could be useful and available for chump-change thanks to his blah counting numbers.

All these guys have warts, but such is the nature of bargain-hunting. I think all of them are worth a shot given the right kind of contract, however.

Feel free to suggest your own potential future Flames in the comments.

Flames Deal Ramholt

Well the Tim Ramholt experiment came to a merciful end today. The former 2nd rounder was dealt to the Philadelphia Flyers for 24-year old LW Kyle Greentree.

I don't know much about Greentree, besides his stats, but it looks like a good swap to me. It had become clear over the last two years that Ramholt wasn't ever going to turn into an NHL-caliber defenseman, so his deletion is no big loss. On the other hand, the Flames added a 6'3" winger to their woefully shallow group - one that scored 24 goals and 48 points in 72 games in the AHL last season. I have no idea if Greentree will ever make the leap, but he should be useful to Quad Cities next year at least.

So long Tim. It's too bad your single NHL shift was such a disaster.

UPDATE - Inside the Flames has a few words from Sutter and Greentree on the deal.

Sutter:

“Kyle has a legitimate opportunity of playing on our team this season and hopefully Tim has a shot with Philadelphia,” said Flames general manager Darryl Sutter in a press release. “This move is a continuation of our work to upgrade up front. On our depth chart, we believe a couple of our young defencemen in the AHL and a couple of our juniors had moved passed Ramholt.”

And Greentree:

“I feel I have more to give. I feel that I can play up there and stay up there. I’m excited for the chance to play for a Canadian team and to be so close to home. This has always been a dream of mine.”

Greentree describes himself “as a big power forward who likes to go to the net and try to use my size as an asset."

I don't know how legitimate a chance Greentree has to actually crack the big roster, but it'll be interesting to see how he fares in the preseason.

Sutter inks four

Sportsnet is reporting the re-signings of Craig Conroy, Eric Nystrom, Curtis McElhinney and Daymon Lankgow. Conspicuously absent: Owen Nolan and Eric Godard (although there's lots of time left).

Nothing surprising here. More analysis when the dollars and terms are released.

UPDATE - Flames have also extended qualifying offers to Brandon Prust, David Van Der Gulik and Adam Pardy. All three of these guys should be fighting to make the big club this year.

That leaves the likes of Ryan Donnally, Derek Couture and Tomi Maki (no doubt upsetting his best and only fan, WI) out in the cold. Couture and Maki played for Omaha last year while Donnally plied his trade in the ECHL. None of them are - or will be - NHL calbier players.

Finally, Lefebvre and Cruickshank also confirm that Rhettro will indeed be bought out. Also:

Morris says Warrener is disappointed his time in Calgary — four seasons — comes to an end in this fashion.

"But in one breath, he's happy he's got his freedom . . . at a time when people are coveting defencemen," Morris said Friday afternoon as he awaited the formal buyout notice. "He still has some play in him. I would expect that there will be opportunities for him.

Warrener strikes me as a great guy and a tough competitor - but it'll shock me if he plays in the NHL this coming season. Besides being painfully slow and terrible with the puck, he's is pretty much always injured. Unless Warrener's willing to up-root himself for a league minimum salary, chances are he'll be facing un-official retirement a la Tony Amonte and Jeff Friesen.

UPDATE II - According to Inside the Flames (these guys rule), Calgary has also qualified Cam Cunning, Andrei Taratuhkin and Tomi Maki. Im pretty surprised about the latter two, given that both are going to be playing overseas next year.

Let the great purge begin!

TSN is reporting that Rhett Warrener, Marcus Nilson and Anders Eriksson have been placed on waivers.

Good news, folks.

I would have preferred to see Primeau on the list rather than Nilson but that's a minor quibble. I assume that at least one of these guys will be bought out (Warrener), one will go to the farm (Eriksson?) and one will be picked up by another club (Nilson?). Warrener's hypothetical buy-out will cost the Flames about 680k, so the savings should my forecasts come to pass would be about (2.35M+1.5M+1M-0.680) 4.17M in cap space. Precious, precious cap space.

So long Rhett. The spirit was willing but the flesh was week. I hope you retire and get another position in the organization.

So long Nilson. You just weren't right after that knee injury, although I think you got a raw deal last year. Hopefully you can contribute elsewhere.

As for you, Bubba...good riddance.

EDIT - Looks like the cap will be 56.7M next year. Let the roster predictions flow!

Get out the big red FAIL stamp...

There's lots of reasons to blog about sports: arrogance, geekdom, too much free time, a wish to argue endlessly with anonymous stangers. Course, there's also the invaluable opportunity to record your thoughts in order to declare "I told you so!" later. As such, a pause in the Tanguay navel gazing to pat myself on the back.

Back when it occurred, I (along with countless others, lets be frank) declared the Raycroft for Rask deal orchestrated by the erstwhile Toronto GM to be a terrible trade. I caught some flack for that analysis in the comments section.

Well, after a couple of seasons of total, ass-suckingly bad goaltending, Raycroft was placed on waivers by the Leafs on Tuesday. Chances are he'll either be bought out or sent to the farm. Either way, I think we can safely say we've seen the last of the former Calder trophy winner in the NHL.

Stylish. SlapShot. Awsome.

Submitted without comment. Puck Daddy found that one.

Tanguay - a few last thoughts

There are some terrific pieces out there on the departure of Alex Tanguay and it's effects on the Flames roster. Im not going to get into that here, as it's obviously been handled elsewhere. Here's whats rattling around in my skull in the aftermath.

- While, in effect, Tanguay was dealt for Cammalleri, the truth of the matter is Tanguay was actually dealt for a 25th overall pick (while Cammalleri was had for the 17th choice). This is an important distinction to keep in mind. Under slightly different circumstances, the Flames could have left the draft with both on the roster, an outcome that would have been much more preferable - particularly considering the fact that Cammalleri is a more apt replacement for the departing Kristian Huselius.

- The trade seems palatable if one considers the constraints under which Sutter was working: a high-priced player coming off a "poor" season with a NTC isn't the easiest piece to deal. When one considers that the Flames moved their 2nd best ES forward for futures and a bit of cap-space, it becomes a little more grim.

- Sutter has been a mix of good and bad since he started managing the Flames in 04. Or, to be more precise, brutal and brilliant. I see the Tanguay trade - or rather the need for Tanguay to be traded - as disturbing because it smacks of bad decisions bleeding into good ones. It's executive scrambling, as it were. Tanguay was a checker on this club last year because the forward ranks were so thin, despite a relatively robust roster budget. His $5M contract became cap-space fodder because that robust budget is bloated with poor value players. This isn't the Senators dealing Havlat because they simply have too many good players to fit under the cap...the Flames, in direct contrast, are in desperate need of top 6 forwards.

No, this is Calgary moving Tanguay because he was crowded out by the suck. Bad decisions are starting to collect and lay idle on this team; and as they pile up and stagnate, their putrescence is beginning to poison the well, drip by corrupting drip. Dealing good money before bad is a poor management, at least in the long-term. Sutter has the summer to complete the scramble and plug the holes. He may still purge the likes of Warrener and co. However, considering the UFA pool depth, the lack of viable prospects in the Flames system and relatively inflexible cap position, it's a good bet the Flames will be a worse club heading into the season this October.

Rest of the draft

2nd round (48th): Mitch Wahl - C - Spokane Chiefs

07/08 - 67GP, 20G 53A 73PTS

Wahl placed second on his club in terms of points during the regular season. Only 4 of goals came on the PP and he was a very healthy +33. From his scouting report:

NHL Central Scouting's Blair MacDonald

"Mitch is a smaller, skilled player with a good skating and playmaking ability. He controls and dishes the puck well, but needs to show more desire to enter into traffic and to battle around the net. He has good puck awareness and is used effectively on the penalty kill."

Spokane Chiefs head coach Bill Peters

"Mitch is starting to round into a complete player. In his draft year, he is 20th in the WHL in scoring, but more impressive to me is he is seventh in the WHL in plus-minus. That means, as a 17-year-old centerman, he is playing against other team's number one lines night in, night out. He is a playmaking center who looks to get his wingers the puck and he has very good on-ice vision and creativity."

Sounds like a fairly well-rounded guy already.

3rd round (78th): Lance Bouma - C - Vancouver Giants

07/08 - 71GP, 12G 23A 35PTS

Another Alberta boy from WHL. And another center. Go figure. Bouma managed just 35 points, good for 8th on his team (two defenseman garnered more points than him). He looks more like a checking forward than anything. From his scouting report:

NHL Central Scouting's Blair MacDonald

"Lance has shown the ability to use his speed from the outside to drive to the net. He plays a strong positional game – up and down his wing and works well in the corners; he is at his best when he plays an aggressive style of game and is finishing his checks. He plays the type of game that can make him a good pro player – keeps it simple and works hard on the forecheck and backcheck. He needs to improve on his offensive game and consistency from game-to-game."

Sounds like a third-round Eric Nystrom. It'd be nice to know who he was playing against at even-strength.

4th Round (108th): Nick Larson - LW - Waterloo

07/08 - 57GP, 19G 19A 38PTS

Big, American winger will be heading to Notre Dame next year. Let's hope he develops into something because the organizations list of potential wingers is rather deplorable. from his scouting report:

"Nick plays an aggressive, physical game and he plays in all situations. He has excellent puck pursuit and he's hard to control in front of the net. He plays on Waterloo's top line and scored consistently down the stretch – he provided the physical game on his line. Overall, I see a lot of potential and upside in this kid."

4th Round (114th): TJ Brodie - D - Saginaw Spirit

07/08 - 68GP, 4G 26A 30PTS

Brodie is a 6', 170 pound defender from the OHL. He was the highest scoring defenseman for the Spirit during the regular season and added another 3 assists in 4 games during the play-offs. I couldn't track down a scouting report for him but judging from his numbers and size, he looks like one o' those "puck-moving" defenders.

5th round - Traded to Montreal in Tanguay deal.

6th round (168th): Ryley Grantham - C - Moose Jaw Warriors

07/08 - 66GP, 9G 10A 19PTS

Another center and, yes, another Western Canadian kid playing in the dub. Grantham looks like a throw-away pick by the Flames scouting staff. He's 2 years older than the majority of his draft cohort (born 1988), but only managed 19 points in the WHL last year. His only notable stat was his 163 PIM. Enforcer for the farm?

7th round (198th): Alexander Deilert - D - Djurgarden U20

The Flames lone international choice comes in the final round with Alex Deilert. The 5'11", 176 pound blueliner has played with Sweden's international U16-U19 teams. Reminds me of the Per Jonsson pick.

Seven choices in total. Mostly big forwards and mostly from the WHL. No surprises here, apart from the lack of wingers chosen.

Introducing Mike Cammalleri

Mike Cammalleri is now a Calgary Flame. Here's what I know about him:

The Good - Fast, agile, with a hard and accurate shot. Effective PP player, who can legitimately play the point (unlike Tanguay). Young, with potential to score 30+ goals every year. Already has an 80 point season under his belt.

The Bad - Small, somewhat soft and tends to get scored on at ES. Bad year last season, due in part to injury.

His ES advanced stats from 07/08:

-0/04 QUALCOMP (only Nagy and Armstrong saw softer competition)
1.91 ESP/60 (pretty pedestrian, but actually better than Kopitar)
2.60 GFON/60 (middling)
3.56 GAON/60 (worst on the team)
-14 ES +/- (only Handzus was worse in terms of forwards)
-0.4 CORSI (meh)

Mike was one of the hottest goal-scorers at the start of last season before being injured. he struggled to regain that form upon returning and ended up battling injury and consistency issues all year.

Cammalleri has one more season left on his 3.35M/contract and it was apparent to Kings management that he would be testing free agency at the conclusion of his contract, thus the impetus to move him.

I dont quite know where Cammalleri lands on the Flames depth chart. Considering the pre-ponderance of centers, I would expect him to move to the LW and play with either Langkow/Iginla or Lombardi/? (Moss?) at ES and get some serious PP time otherwise. He won't be killing penalties and he won't be checking tough competition like Tanguay was with Conroy and Nolan last year.

Im still absorbing the Flames moves and draft picks, so further analysis will be forth-coming. For now, welcome to the Flames Mike!

Draft day news tracker

The annual entry draft has become something of a secondary trade deadline as clubs seek to shed salary and garner picks prior to making their selections. This year I expect there to be some frenetic activity due to the purported depth of talent.

And so, without further ado:

- St. Louis acquires the usurped Chris Mason from Nashville. Mason was the revelation that allowed the Preds to deal Vokoun last summer...a revelation that quickly turned into a regret when he proved incapable of handling the starters job last season. He signed a shiny new $3M/year contract that was starting look like a miserable burden, so it's no surprise he's been dealt. For the Blues, I assume they want Mason to push Legace.

- Toronto acquires Jamal Mayers from the Blues for a 3rd rounder. I always liked Mayers when I've seen him play, so not sure what the justification for this move is from a St. Louis perspective. As for the Leafs, they expunged Kilger and Belak last Feb so maybe they're looking to add some muscle.

- Three other guys I expect to be traded today: Olli Jokinen, Patrick Marleau and Jarret Stoll.

- Last night, Pierre McGuire had the Flames taking Joe Colborne in his mock draft. *puke*

- Dan Ellis has been signed to a two year, 3.5M contract while Ray Emery has been put on waivers (no surprises here). Ellis is a bit of a gamble, a la Chris Mason (ironically) but he did put up stellar numbers last year. Emery, on the other hand, is a pariah and I don't expect anyone to claim him. Chances are he'll be bought out.

- Some news on this supposed "Malkin to the KHL" rumor. I really don't see this happening.

- The Flyers back-up the truck for pending RFA Jeff Carter. I like what I've seen from Carter in the past and I think he'll probably live up to the 5M/year figure in the near future.

Philadelphia is in quite the cap-pickle as a result of this new contract, however. Look for them to dump some contracts (Hartnell or Upshall) and "encourage" Hatcher to retire this summer.

- Well, Sutter's off and running before the first pick drops. He flips the Flames first rounder to LA for Cammelleri. As usual, no one saw it coming. I have no in depth take on the deal yet, as Im too stunned.

- The running rumor now is that Tanguay is going to Montreal for the Habs 25th choice overall. Personally, I hate that move (how is Cammy worth a 17th, but Tangs is worth a 25th?), but it hasn't been made official yet. If true, I hope there's more to that.

- and now, in a stunning move, Florida deals Jokinen to Phoenix for Ballard+Boyton+49th pick!! Im stunned that that's all they could get for Jokinen (Ballards good, but otherwise that's trash).

- Word comes down - Tanguay and the Flames 5th rounder go to Montreal for the Habs 25th pick this year and their 2nd rounder next season.

I think that's awful an swap, but clearly Sutter is dumping salary. Still - ugh - the Flames are a worse club today than they were yesterday.

- NYI deals the 5th overall to the Leafs for their 7th overall. Meh.

- CLB deals the 19th overall and a 3rd rounder for RJ Umberger and a 4th. That's right...Umberger got a higher pick than Tanguay. Ugh.

- The Islanders trade down again, swapping the 7th for the 9th with Nashville. They also get a 2nd or 3rd rounder in the process.

- LA swaps the 12th for Buffalos 13th and their 3rd rounder in 2009. Odd move by Buffalo, unless they were certain LAK were going to take their player (Myers).

- Nashville trades the 15th pick to Ottawa for #18 and a 2009 3rd rounder. Murray also announces the extension of Chris Kelly (4 years, 2M+ per year). Not too shabby.

- Lou Lam deals pick #21 to WAS for 23 and 54. Nice move for both teams, particularly the Caps who had three 2nd rounders.

- The Oil picks Jordan Eberle @ 22. Seems like a decent choice at that point in the draft.

- Jersey moves down again, swapping picks with Minny (23 for 24) and a 3rd rounder.

- And of course, Tedenby goes at 24 to NJ. Fuckfuckfuck.

- Flames take Greg Nemisz at 25. I've heard good things, but am fairly unfamiliar. Apparently big, hard to move and not a very good skater. Add another center to the pile.

- And there goes Ennis at 26. I managed to guess the players that would be drafted around the Flames.

- Philly picks up Eminger from WAS for the 26th pick. The Flyers add to their defense and cap issues.

- Phoenix picks up Anaheims #28 pick for a couple 2nd rounders. Coyotes have been surprisingly aggressive today.

- That's about it for the first round. I'll log in with my thoughts on the Flames and the latter round stuff tomorrow or Sunday.

The draft - a few final things

- ESPN's mock draft has Calgary picking the Regina Pats Jordan Eberle. The Regina native is a center that has put up 70 goals in his first two seasons in the dub, so it's not a bad choice. Here's a little blurb on him:

Jordan Eberle possesses hockey sense and skill that cannot be taught. Both intelligent and creative, he stands head and shoulders above most of the Pats’ forwards and won numerous accolades for his play as a 17-year old. Can make plays out of almost nothing and sees the ice as well as anyone in the WHL.

I skipped over Eberle in my own musings because the Flames have pivots coming out the ass (Langkow, Lomabrdi, Boyd, Backlund) and are in desperate need of skill on the wings at both the NHL and AHL levels. However, if Eberle is still around at 17 and seems like "the best player available", it's not ridiculous to think the Flames will grab him, logjam be damned.

- Sutter has almost never made a major trade at the trade deadline. He has, however, been very active during draft day, twice dealing for major players (Tanguay, Aucoin) and almost always making other minor swaps for futures. With the Flames desperately needing to unload some salary and lacking a 2nd rounder, expect Sutter to try to deal an established NHLer for a pick or two. My guess is, at least one of Eriksson, Primeau or Nilsson will be someone else's property come Sunday. Potential partners include:

- LA: 15 (!) picks means they have futures to spare.
- WAS: The caps are flush with second rounders and could prove amenable to parting with one of them.
- CAR: The Hurricanes have cap room and need NHL defensemen in the worst way - even defensemen as crappy as Eriksson.

- How great is it that the Edmonton Oilers only have 5 picks in this deep draft?? Thank you Kevin Lowe (and Dustin Penner).

Flames Draft Preview

"It's an old line but we want a top six forward. We want a guy who can put up offensive numbers ... We want to take the best player available. We want to take an offensive forward."

So says Flames head Scout Tod Button. In an earlier interview this year, Sutter was explicit in his intentions to pursue forwards in the draft before defensemen or goalies ("we don't need any more goalies"). Ironically, the current draft class seems heavy with defenders: Of the 20 top ranked North American and international skaters (10 NA, 10 IN), almost half are blueliners. So the the Flames are going fishing for forwards in defensemen rich waters...

We can further narrow down the field by looking at the organizations previous habits. As mentioned in the retrospective below, the Flames have made 40 picks with Sutter at the Helm. Here's a Lowetide-like break-down of where those picks have come from:

WHL - 16
OHL - 9
QMJHL - 3
NCAA - 1
BCHL/USHL/USHS/Minn/OPJHL - 6
Swe - 3
Swiss - 1
Fin - 1

Clearly, the CHL dominates the Flames choices (70%), with the WHL unsurprisingly being the clear favorite (40%). Calgary has only made 5 picks outside of North America in 5 years (12.5%), with three of those coming out of Sweden (and none out of Russia).

Flames 2008 draft order:

* 1st Round - 17th Pick
* 2nd Round - None (dealt to LA for Conroy)
* 3rd Round - 78th pick
* 3rd Round - 108th pick
* 4th Round - 114th pick (from Washington, acquired in the Stuart trade)
* 5th Round - 138th pick
* 6th round - 168th pick
* 7th round - 198th pick

Flames have 7 choices this year, so Sutter may be less keen on trading down in the first round to acquire more picks later on. Further, he's been vocal in the media lately about how "picking in the 20's" makes drafting more difficult. Chances are, Sutter hangs onto #17 (unless a very good deal comes along).

So, assuming:

- Sutter keeps his first rounder
- Picks according to habit (Canada, WHL, OHL, QMJHL, SWE)
- Pursues a forward and,
- Pursues a winger over a centerman (the organization is really thin on the wings)

This is who we can reasonably expect the organization to target...

Mikkel Boedeker - LW - OHL

07/08 - 62 GP, 29G 44A 73PTS

From NHL Central Scouting: Although he is 5'11", he plays low to the ice and as a result is a real solid player. This Team Denmark product is a versatile player for the Kitchener Rangers and that is what he is going to be for his NHL team. He quarterbacks the power-play as a forward from the point for the Rangers and does an effective job.

A consensus top 10 pick. It's doubtful he'll fall into Calgary's range.

Tyler Ennis - LW - WHL

07/08 - 70 GP, 43G 48A 91PTS

From NHL Central Scouting: Tyler is a quick, water-bug-type player. He scoots up and down the ice and can turn on a dime. He can drive wide on a defenceman who is unaware or a little slow. Tyler may be one of the best pure offensive players in the entire draft.

Ennis put up big numbers last year, but is rather small (5'8", 170 pounds) which drops his ranking around the late 20's and early 30's. He'll probably be available at 17.

Mattias Tedenby - LW - HV71 (SWE)

07/08 - 23GP, 3G 3A 6PTS

From NHL Central Scouting: Mattias is excellent on every shift. He has outstanding speed, stick work and work ethic. He is small but fearless - he takes hits and always comes back. He creates scoring chances with his outstanding skating and is very difficult to stop when he is at full speed. He has excellent balance and quick, smooth hands, but needs to improve on his defensive awareness.

Again, another small, fast player (5'9", 165 pounds) with offensive upside who might be around when the Flames take the stage. I like phrases such as "fearless", "outstanding skating" and "difficult to stop".

Joe Colborne - LW - AJHL

07/08 - 55GP, 33G 57A 90PTS

From NHL Central Scouting: Very rangy with his stick; he dishes the puck well and has really good on-ice awareness. If he can get his skating a little more energetic, he'll be a big strong player down the middle. When he is at his best he is a strategic player.

Colborne is a huge Western Canadian kid (6'5", 190 pounds) and might just be the odds-on favorite to be a Flames pick. Personally, I dont like him. Kris Chucko has really soured me on picking raw talents who put up nice numbers in second rate leagues. I've also heard things like "soft", "mediocre skating" and "project" associated with this guy. To me, it looks like those nice counting numbers and "projectable frame" are turning him into a draft day jeans model.

Matthew Calvert - LW - WHL

07/08 - 72GP, 24G 40A 64PTS

Calvert is another in a long line of diminutive, offensive LWers in this draft. He scored at nearly a point per game pace as a rookie for Brandon last year. He's generally ranked in the high 20's amongst NA skaters, again partially due to his size (5' 9", 175 pounds). He's more of a 2nd or 3rd round pick, but could be on the Flames radar in the first round if some of their other choices are gone (and since they don't own a 2nd rounder currently).

Jared Staal - RW - OHL

07/08 - 60GP, 21G 28A 49PTS

From NHL Central Scouting: With the great Staal family reputation and the high expectations brought on by his brothers, Jared is coming into his own -- he's just growing into his 'big Staal body', which is very similar to that of his brothers. He comes off the wing with the desire to go to the net.

The reports about the youngest Staal are mixed at best. He put up mediocre numbers in the OHL and tested poorly at the NHL combine recently. It's said he has top-notch skill, but lacks motivation to succeed. As of now, most scouts put him in the 2nd or 3rd round.

I can see Sutter being tempted by Staal's pedigree, however. The Flames might just take a chance on the baby Staal if some of their other targets fall through.

WILD CARD:

Kyle Beach - C - WHL

07/08 - 60 GP, 27G 33A 60PTS

From NHL Central Scouting: One of the top forwards in this year's draft and is probably the most competitive – from the blue line in there is no one that competes like him. He has good scoring skills and a very accurate shot, and from the blue line in, once he gets the puck, he almost owns it.

Beach may fall to the Flames due to injury concerns (concussion problems last year) and rumors of attitude problems. He's ranked all over the board, with some considering him a top 10 choice while others have him in the 20s (or worse). Although he's a center, he hits a lot of Sutters sweet-spots: big (6'3", 203 pounds), mean, highly competitive, born in Western Canada and plays in the WHL. Not to mention "potentially undervalued due to injury", which is a well the club has gone to twice before in the first round (Backlund, Pelech). If Beach is still on the board at 17, it wouldn't surprise me at all to see the Flames call his name.

EDIT - Jean Lefebvre has a nice draft article in the Herald today. Some highlights:

- Sutter told the media mob Monday morning at the Saddledome, "but we won't be in that market. We think on defence, with the guys that we have (including long-term signees Dion Phaneuf and Robyn Regehr) and the kids that we've drafted (most notably Matt Pelech and John Negrin) . . . if it was a saw-off between a defenceman and a forward, we wouldn't take the defenceman. The chances are, if we stayed at 17, we'd take a forward there."

"Just looking back," he said, "the highest we picked was 24th other than my first year (2003) with Dion (Phaneuf). That in itself is significant. Seven spots up and with this being, I think, probably the best draft since Phaneuf's year in terms of the depth of it all. I like that pick. It's really hard to tell who falls there because there are so many good defencemen who'll be in the top 10, and probably three or four centremen, too. It's hard to see how that next group is going to shake out."

The funny thing about Sutter's lamentations on this issue is the fact that he has traded down in the first round more than once: 2007 (Backlund), 2005 (Pelech) and 2004 (Chucko).

- On the team's June work since Sutter became general manager in 2003: "We got Dion at nine (in '03), but I would have liked that draft to be stronger for us." Only three players chosen five years ago -- Tim Ramholt, Cam Cunning and Ryan Donally -- are still with the organization, and none is considered a significant prospect. "After that, I'm quite happy."

- On whether Mikael Backlund, Calgary's top choice a year ago, will play in the NHL this coming season: "Based on skill, he could, But he's 19 years and he'd have to play in our top group. He'll either play in the NHL or he'll play in Sweden.

- If you're into reading between the lines, you may want to consider this Sutter statement: "I think there's a few kids that are in Western Canada who fall to where we are (in the first-round order). Not necessarily in the Western league, but who are from out here that I'm comfortable with."

The prime prospects who best fit that description are Joe Colborne and David Toews.

- On potential changes to the Flames' scouting operations: "We look at it every year. If there's one impact that the (expiry of the) European agreement has is where your scouts are over there. Scandinavia is probably where the base of your staff should be overseas." (translation: more focus in Sweden).

The Draft, the Flames and Sutter

There's been some decent stories in the local media recently relating to the upcoming (and previous) entry drafts. Here's my own humble contribution in that same vein...

The Calgary Franchise is now 5 years removed from the onset of the Darryl Sutter regime. Given that it takes about 5 years to evaluate draft performance, I figure it's a good time to look over the Flames drafting record since Sutter took office.

2003:

9th pick - Dion Phaneuf - 243GP
39th pick - Tim Ramholt - 1 GP
97th pick - Ryan Donally
112th pick - Jamie Tardif
143rd pick - Greg Moore
173rd pick - Tyler Johnson
206th pick - Thomas Bellamere
240th pick - Cam Cunning
270th pick - Kevin Harvey

The inclusion of Dion Phaneuf makes palatable what would otherwise be a disastrous year at the table. Of the 9 players chosen, only two have played in the big league, and that's generously counting Tim Ramholt's single shift. Only Phaneuf, Ramholt, Donnally and Cunning are still Flames property, with Cunning and Ramholt making some contributions at the AHL level for Omaha recently (Donally played for the Las Vegas Wranglers in the ECHL last season). Chances are, none of them will regularly skate for the Flames (or anyone else in the NHL for that matter).

Moore, Tardif and Johnson all plied their trade in the AHL for other franchises last year while guys like Bellamere and Harvey no longer play hockey competitively. Basically, the Flames hit a homerun with the first swing of the bat in 2003 and then proceeded to ground out the rest of the way. What's perhaps most disappointing about their lack of success is the relatively good draft position, with 2003 marking the best position (9th) the organization has enjoyed during Sutter's tenure.

2004:

24th pick - Kris Chucko
70th pick - Brandon Prust - 10 GP
98th pick - Dustin Boyd - 61 GP
118th pick - Aki Seitsonen
121st pick - Kris Hogg
173rd pick - Adam Pardy
182nd pick - Fred Wikner
200th pick - Matt Schneider
213th pick - Jimmy Spratt
279th pick - Adam Cracknell

This was a quantity rather than quality draft. Calgary had 10 picks but only one of them was inside the top 69 choices - and the club wasted it on Kris Chucko. Like the previous draft, most of the guys are AHL (or worse) fodder. The only possible exceptions are Dustin Boyd, who likely has the biggest upside of the bunch (20 goal, 2nd line center sound about right?), and Adam Pardy, who was recently mentioned by some of the muck-e-mucks as a youngster knocking on the door. Prust has also played at the NHL level, but a lot of the reports and stats from the farm indicate his development has basically stalled at "injury call-up". If he ever makes the Flames full-time (large "if"), it's unlikely he'll progress much past 4th line duties. As things stand currently, it looks like the Flames garnered just one NHL player out of 10 choices from this batch.

2005:

26th pick - Matt Pelech
69th pick - Gord Baldwin
74th pick - Dan Ryder
111th pick - JD Watt
128th pick - Kevin Lalande
158th pick - Matt Keetley - 1 GP
179th pick - Brett Sutter
221st pick - Myles Rumsey

At 3 years out, a draft becomes harder to grade simply because all of the guys in question are still young and trying to establish themselves as professional players. None of them have played in the NHL yet (excusing Matt Keetley's cup of coffee). Based on what I've seen and heard, Matt Pelech and the aforementioned Keetley may be the only guys with a shot at cracking the bigs, particularly since Daniel Ryder decided to take his ball and go home last summer. Watt is a shit-disturber in the Downie/Carcillo mold, although he has considerably less actual hockey-skill than those guys. He scored more than 30 goals a couple years ago for Vancouver in the WHL but has done little since, even as an overager on the Rebels/Pats last season. I haven't seen him play much, but his numbers are hardly encouraging. He is, however, one of the kids Sutter signed to a big-league contract, so maybe there's something there.

Brett Sutter, Darryl's son, made the AHL club last year and struggled to keep his head above water. I have no idea if he has NHL potential, although his stats suggest a 4th line/grinder type ceiling should he ever make the leap.

Again, it's hard to say, but there doesn't seem to be much here. I think what I find most surprising about this draft, though, is the org's decision to use 2 of the 8 picks on goalies.

Were I forced to grade this draft right now, I'd have to go with "poor", again. Pelech was an off-the-board pick at the time, a guy who had fallen during his draft year due to injuries. While I applaud Sutter and co. for seeking out undervalued guys at the bottom end of the rotation, the truth of the matter is they didn't do a very good job of it. Currently, there are more than 30 players that were chosen after Pelech that have played in the NHL: some of them have gotten a cup of coffee while others are already making contributions (Matt Niskanen, ME Vlasic, Paul Statsny, Kris Letang, Kris Russel, Jared Boll, Sergei Kostitsyn, Kyle Cumiskey). There's still a lot of time left for Pelech to step up, however.

2006:

26th pick - Leland Irving
87th pick - John Armstrong
89th pick - Aaron Marvin
118th pick - Hugo Carpentier
149th pick - Jusso Puustinen
179th pick - Jordan Fulton
187th pick - Devin DiDiomete
209th pick - Per Johnsson

Two years out and we're basically reading tea leaves at this point. Most of these guys are still kids and are at the tail-end of their junior/college careers. Irving enjoyed a large portion of success at the WHL level and is a lock to make the Omaha squad this upcoming season. His numbers and pedigree suggest NHL upside, but who the hell knows with goalies sometimes.

The rest of the 2006 cohort is a total grab-bag. None are guarantees to make the bigs or even challenge for a job. Jusso Puustinen led his WHL club in scoring this past season, but has since fled back to Finland. The Flames declined to offer him a contract and have lost his rights as a result. DiDiomete, Fulton, Carpentier and Armstrong are all middling talents who will need some combination of a tireless work ethic, favorable circumstances and a big step forward to become NHL players in the distant future. Aaron Marvin is said to have some offensive upside, but if or whether that translates beyond anything more than the HS level remains to be seen.

Grading this draft is obviously difficult, but, as it stands now, it doesn't look like Calgary managed anything more than a single or double with this go-round (depending on how Irving does) - if that. Probably the best Flames fans can hope for from any of these skaters is a "David Moss" type player..and that's 3 to 5 years down the road.

2007:

24th pick - Mikael Backlund
70th pick - John Negrin
116th pick - Keith Aulie
143rd pick - Mickey Renaud
186th pick - CJ Severyn

Like Pelech, Backlund was another player that fell during his draft year due to injury. Sutter originally had the 17th pick, but chose to deal down in exchange for more picks later. He grabbed Backlund with the 24th choice and the early returns on that gamble are, happily, encouraging. Speaking of under-valued, John Negrin was another injury-felled player snagged by the Flames, and he had a whale of year for the Kootney Ice last season. Ironically, the Flames may have hit a couple of doubles in this draft, despite the relatively small number of picks (although it's way too early to say so definitively).

As his tenure as the Flames GM has matured, Sutter has made a habit of:

1.) trading away later picks (2nd, 3rd rounders, etc) for established players (Tanguay, Conroy, Lundmark, Hale) and
2.) Trading down in the first round to re-coup those picks.

The results have been...mixed to date. Of the 40 choices the organization has made under Sutter's direction, only 2 (!) have played more than 60 NHL games (Phaneuf and Boyd), with only perhaps 5 more with a good chance to crack the bigs and contribute at some point in the future (by my own subjective perceptions, at least): Pardy, Pelech, Backlund, Irving and Negrin. The Sutter-helmed Flames knocked one out of the park with their very first pick, but have failed to acquire anything near that quality of player since. In fact, there seems to be a dearth of NHL-caliber players period, let alone any of the star variety.

While the prior regimes (rightly) get some flack for the Flames lack of home-grown talent, the current administration is equally to blame for the clubs dearth of cheap, entry-level players. Of the youngins that skated for the Flames last season (Moss, Boyd, Nystrom, Phaneuf), only two were Sutter picks/under the age of 25, with one of those (Phaneuf) playing the final year of his entry-level deal.

Of impending relevance is the fact that there are precious few youngsters looking to step in and fill some of the (gaping) roster holes this coming September, with only Van Der Gulik (also not a Sutter-era pick), Pardy and maybe Pelech or Prust pressing to be replacement level skaters at the bottom-end of the roster.

Im no expert on prospects and haven't seen most of these guys play, so none of this gospel. In addition, we're still several years away from really learning the true success rates for any of the 2005 drafts or later. However, from where I stand currently and with all the information available to me -- it's probably fair to say Im not bullish on the Flames draft record under Sutter thus far.

Im sure he'll remain the voice of the PPV

The Fan960 has been reporting recently that Roger Millions is being replaced by Peter Loubardias for Sportsnet Flames telecasts next season.

It's kind of shame, really. Millions was a homer and he had his, err, idiosyncrasies but he was our homer. I think the two worst parts of losing Roger, however, may be:

1.) The abolition of the Roger Millions Drinking Game.

2.) Having to hear Loubardias call goals all year ("He sceeeeyoooorres!").

You Gotta Be Jokin(en)

This comes your way via an email from my friend and sometimes blog-contributor, Chunky Moose:

The Vancower Canucks’ offer notwithstanding, it looks like the Flames have a deal in place to bring heralded Finnish centerman, Olli Jokinen, to the Calgary Flames.

In this 5-player deal (Flames 3, Panthers 2), we would send Alex Tanguay and parts heading the other way. Why would Tanguay waive his NTC to go to FLA you ask? Well, apparently #40 does not like living under the regime of Keenan.

If you are concerned about the lack of news regarding the Langkow signing, apparently word from the inside (and all other CBA PhD’s) is that it has to do with tagging room. His contract is unaffordable until July 1 due to this mysterious “tagging room”, but it should be announced on C-day.

I won’t urinate on the post by giving it a [C4] or something ridiculous like that, but the sources are reliable and from what I hear it will be fairly soon.

However seriously you take the rumor (which seems to crop up every six months), it's an interesting talking point for this dull latent period between the play-offs and the draft.

Here's my stab at the hypothetical deal, based on the parameters stated above:

To Flames: Jokinen + Booth (5.25M+0.7M)
To Panthers: Tanguay + Lombardi + Eriksson (5.25M+1.817M+1.5M)

Thoughts?

EDIT - for those of you confused by the "tagging room" stuff re: the stalled Langkow contract, click here.

LATER EDIT - Darren Dreger appeared on some radio stations today reporting that Jokinen "will not be reporting back to Florida this summer". Maybe this thing actually has legs?

EDIT THE THIRD - George Williams of the Miami Herald says no deal for Jokinen has been reached, though he expects the Panthers Captain to be traded at some point this summer:

People I've spoken to within the organization say no trade involving Jokinen is forthcoming, although there is plenty of interest in the 29-year-old centerman.

...That said, I do think the Panthers and Jokinen will probably part ways in the coming weeks. I don't think Olli and JM like each other very much, and if JM was still the coach, Olli would probably have found himself somewhere else.

Via Spector.

Family Circus doesn't have to suck.

As hockey fandom basks in the post-coital glow of the post-season climax, the impetus to post anything has shrunk to almost nothing. That said, I couldn't resist sharing this fun little link, even though it has nothing to do with the avowed purpose of this blog:

The Nietzsche Family Circus pairs a randomized Family Circus cartoon with a randomized Friedrich Nietzsche quote. Refresh the page to see a new comic.

Like Chocolate and Peanut Butter, sometimes the union of seemingly disparate things results in sweet fruit nonetheless. Enjoy.

Another One in the Books

Congratulations to the Detroit Red Wings, the 2007-2008 Stanley Cup Champions. Likely one of the best teams I've ever seen play. Quality from top to bottom, from the players to the front office. Congrats, also, to Nick Lidstrom, the first European captain in league history to lead his team to the Holy Grail, and Henrik Zetterberg for his (deserving) Conn Smythe.

Finally, kudos to the Pittsburgh Penguins, for making it an interesting series and thrilling last couple of games.

And now the off-season foolishness can begin in earnest. Can't wait.

Experience: a first glance

Matt and Tom Benjamin, two of the blogosphere's more cerebral contributors, had a bit of a go at each other recently over the subject of "experience" and it's effect on winning in the NHL.

First, some background. Matt broached the subject a little while ago in response to the youth vs. experience narrative being peddled during the cup finals. To summarize:

Experience is valuable insofar as most NHL players get better at their jobs over their first few seasons, but past that, its value is equal parts marginal and mythical...

The mythical part is rather straightforward. Tomas Holmstrom has been through the wars, but you can count on Sidney Crosby to make better decisions with the puck and create more scoring chances, because he's Sidney Crosby -- he's a better hockey player. Holmstrom's experience probably makes him a bit better player than a 21-year-old with his same size and skill set, but it doesn't make him a better player than Sidney Crosby.

Meaning experience is a pertinent contributor to success inasmuch as it effects the progression and development of a given player. To be explicit: hockey players have a virtual "floor" and "ceiling" in terms of their abilities and output. The range/levels of their floor/ceiling is mainly determined by skill, ie; how good a hockey player they are. Crosby's floor, for example, is well above Wayne Primeau's ceiling, meaning a team of 21 year-old Crosbys is likely to beat up on a team of 27 year-old Primeaus every single time, despite the fact the Primreau club would have the experiential edge.

Of course, a player's abilities (relative to himself) tend to expand as they physically mature and gain at-bats. It's generally accepted wisdom that most players usually reach their ceiling - or peak - around the age of 27/28 (usually after 5 seasons worth of play). The best tend to plateau for awhile, others drop off due to injury, fatigue, wear-and-tear. If Im not misrepresenting him, Matt's point is two-fold:

1.) A players skill, rather than his experience, is the more consequential factor when it comes to performance and success. While a 27 year-old Crosby is superior to a 21 year-old Crosby, the younger version is still probably superior to most other players in the league - experienced or otherwise.

2.) Experience, as it's framed and conceptualized in the MSM's typical narrative, is mythical since it's gains don't actually tend to be additive or useful after a player reaches his peak. For example, play-off games number 100 and 101 probably weren't any more instructive or useful to Chris Chelios than games number 80 and 81. At a certain point, like painting a window black to block out the sun, progressive "layers" of experience become less and less relevant.

Tom's reponse:

Hockey is a game of mistakes. David Staples has started counting errors leading to goals as a new statistic. The number isn't particularly valid, but the salient point is that it is not hard for him - or anyone else - to find mistakes on every scoring play or scoring chance.

As players gain experience, they eliminate mistakes. This - more than anything else - is how players improve. They learn what they can and cannot do at the NHL level. They learn when they can force the play and when patience and the safe play is right. They learn when they can pinch and when they cannot. They are less likely to take stupid penalties.

Even experienced players make mistakes and a creative player like Crosby or Malkin can actually force errors. Therefore there is no such thing as a perfect game. But experienced teams recover quickly and minimize the impact of the inevitable gaffes. Inexperienced teams tend to compound errors.

Tom's point is, I think, technically less principled and more pragmatic on the team-building front: a club with too many kids and rookies is more apt to be error-prone, as a larger portion of the team will be closer to it's "floor" than it's "ceiling". So while skill may be a a greater contributing factor - as in the Crosby vs. Primeau example - the issue is: there is a distribution of skill across players on a team (and the league in general) and the Crosbys and Malkins of the world are outliers, or, exceedingly rare. Therefore, a team with a lot of inexperienced players - players near the onset of their careers - is likely to be worse than the experienced squad since, all things being equal, the average NHLer at 27 is better than the average NHLer at 21.

Anyways, I promised in Tom's comment thread to put together some of the data to see what could be found. Here's what I cobbled together so far:

Experience (regular season games played) and points (07-08) by Team



Graphed


Method:

basically, I went through and summed the cumulative games played (regular season) of every player for each team's roster as a metric for experience. I considered using "age", but that seems like a pale proxy for experience as opposed to actually playing games.

I smoothed the data-set out a bit by excluding goaltenders and paring each roster down to just 23 skaters (roster sizes were variable, depending on trades, call-ups, injuries, etc.). The "23" figure was fairly arbitrary, though it seemed to capture all of the significant contributors while excluding cup-o-coffee guys. Probably anything from 18-22 would have worked as well.

Even though I posited earlier that experience becomes less relevant past a certain threshold, I decided to use cumulative games played as the independent variable because I initially wanted to investigate the prevailing (or "mythical") conception of experience and it's contribution to success. Perhaps, for example, there are benefits to being "veteran" beyond landing on the meaty portion of a player's career arc: dressing room presence, "leadership", respect for and from teammates, etc.

Not that this investigation speaks to that in any meaningful way. As you can see, the data yielded a positive correlation between "total games played" and "regular season points" for the prior year of 0.53. Not perfect, but hardly inconsequential. Unfortunately, as it's set-up now, the analysis probably conflates a lot of the factors we're trying to separate out and doesn't necessarily elucidate any causal relationships. This is more a beginning of the discussion than the conclusion I guess.

A more thorough investigation (by someone more math savvy) would be in order. I have the raw data, which can be be further parsed and correlated by anyone else interested. I may or may not do my own follow-up on the subject...

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There's a famous SNL skit about the Blue Oyster Cult's "Don't Fear the Reaper", featuring Christopher Walken and Will Ferrell. In it, Walken plays producer Bruce Dickinson who "has a fever for the cowbell". No doubt a fair measure of the skit's comedic value comes from the juxtaposition between Ferrel's typical obnoxious flailing and Walken's now iconic flat stare and wooden delivery. However, the underlying joke the skit is predicated upon is Dickinson's (Walken's) manic and nonsensical obsession with the cowbell, which is a relatively inconsequential aspect of the track.

In a way, I think a lot of fans and even coaches or GM's have their own "cowbells": those factors they foreground and elevate above and beyond their true values. Personally, when I played hockey myself, I was under-sized and I survived via speed and agility. Now, the smaller, quicker players are the ones that elicit my sympathies (which likely explains my continued quest to insulate Lombardi from criticism). One of the reasons the above inquiry was interesting to me is I consider "experience" to be one of Darryl Sutter's cowbells: he seems to have a fever for it, even though it's contributions to the tune may be minimal.

Of interest to Flames fans is the fact that Calgary was one of the most experienced clubs in the league last year, in terms of total career games played, but had only middling results. Most notably, Calgary had the fewest number of roster players with less than 410 games played (the equivalent of 5 full seasons of hockey), at 9. An unofficial per-team average for "inexperienced" players (less than 410 games) was about 12 or 13. A lot of teams with a greater number of inexperienced players did better than Calgary last year (though, a lot of teams with inexperienced players also did worse).

I see Sutter's experience fetish as a cowbell* because it seems to override the contribution of skill - the "floor/ceiling" factor - in a lot of cases. As previously discussed, guys like Eriksson, Primeau, Friesen etc. were given higher salaries and preference over younger potential replacement level players despite the fact they wouldn't be getting any better and were pricier. Beyond creating a hostile development environment (as previously discussed), the other problem in light of this discussion is Eriksson et al. sucked, experience or no. Their ceilings were low. The totality of events, that treasure trove of games played, didn't amount to much because, well - they just weren't very good players.

I think - and further explication of this issue may or may not prove this accurate - that Sutter can pound on that cowbell all he wants, but it wont make the track any better without taking into account other, salient factors (like skill-level, cap efficiency, etc).

*(Other Sutter cowbells include: Western Canadian guys, former first round draft picks and former "Sutter" players).