On Dudley and the Byfuglien Trade

What follows is an excerpt from Gare Joyce’s book Future Greats and Heartbreaks featuring a brief profile on Rick Dudley, then an executive with the Chicago Blackhawks. Joyce had spent some time profiling draft prospect Akim Aliu for the Blue Jackets, and Dudley has just told Joyce that he likes what he sees in Aliu...

"I could see that he would. Dudley spends more time in the gym than any NHL executive, and probably more than a lot of NHL players. His arms are as big as Lou Ferrigno’s. Dudley was a hard-rock heart-and-soul forward in his day with the Buffalo Sabres, and an even better lacrosse player. He looks for athletes and athleticism – he’d be anti-Moneyball. Some scouts almost hold pure athleticism against a player – reasoning that what they do matters more than what they might become – in fact, to the complete exclusion of their athleticism. It’s the divide between potential and performance. That’s not to say Dudley doesn’t care how Aliu plays, but it’s Aliu’s athleticism that intrigues him."

That's via Jonathan Willis in April. An oddly prescient passage of Greats and Heartbreaks to excerpt given the events of today. It's one that stuck out to me during my reading as well: it's a perfect illustration of my cowbells shorthand concept. It's also something that renders the Byfuglien deal more sensible, at least from the perspective of the Thrashers new GM. I personally don't like the deal for the Thrashers because I don't rate any of the players they got all that highly. For Dudley though - a man that values "toughness", "build" and other uber-macho aspects of hockey - a package featuring Byfuglien, Eager and Akim Aliu must have been like catnip.

Were I a fan that had suffered through years and years of Waddell's bungling, I'm sure the trade today - and the potential motivation behind it revealed above - wouldn't fill me with fuzzy feelings.

"Clutch", of course, being a totally meaningless term

Simply put, Skinner is a goal-scoring machine and is the best clutch goal scorer in this draft class. When a player scores 50 goals and 25 of them are first goals, insurance goals or game winners, that is the definition of clutch.

Via Sportsnets mock draft.

I'd say that a very high percentage of goals in any given game are "first goals, insurance goals or game winners". Wouldn't you?

Give Sheppard a Chance!

Some minor news causing an odd stir today. The Wild re-signed James Sheppard. I didn't think much of it personally - former first round pick who stuck as a 20 year old but hasn't put up numbers in the big league yet. No big deal - 22 year olds who make the dance straight from junior are guys you re-sign as RFA's as a matter of course.

Except that Wild fans apparently hate the guy. Which is a fairly strong reaction towards what is a depth player making less than 1 million bucks. Especially one that is bound to improve.

What's the source of this animosity? Well, he's not an amazing player, sure...but to cause that kind of reaction he's either terrible, or has been caused to look terrible by either the gods or his coaches.

Turns out it's the latter (and both). He had nominal possession stats this year (-9.42 corsi/60...worst on the team) and a terrible ES scoring rate (0.44 ESP/60) but those things have a lot to do with his circumstances: bad teammates and a team worst PDO (97.9) come to mind. He also had one of the toughest zone starts ratios in the league: 39.7%. That's a tough gig as a 21 year old sophomore, even if you're only playing other scrubs. His offensive stats were further depressed by spending all of 19 seconds per night on the PP.

So while I don't think Minny has a star on their hands, Sheppard probably isn't nearly as bad as last year made him seem. On top of that, he's bound to improve. Most guys haven't even made the dance by his age.

New Design

I changed the blog template, mostly because the old one couldn't seem to accommodate the scoring chance tables properly. This one seems to. Let me know if you have any concerns/improvements in mind.