Friday, July 11, 2008

More anxious mutterings - Where for art thou Adam Oates?

In 05/06, the Calgary Flames ranked 27th in the league in terms of GF with 216. They had the 2nd fewest amount of goals at ES with 108. Kristian Huselius was acquired in December of that year and he had some effect - he scored at a 60 point pace in Flames silks and his team best PP efficacy helped push the Calgary powerplay to 12th in the league by seasons end.

The following summer, Sutter addressed the Flames scoring concerns by dealing Jordon Leopold for Alex Tanguay.

I think it's no coincidence that the club hasn't had any major issues scoring goals since those two acquisitions (besides a curious off PP last season). In 06/07, the Flames ranked 7th in the league in total GF (255) and were in the top 10 in terms of ES scoring (153 - tied with the Detroit Red Wings). Last season, with Tanguay playing a checkers role, Calgary's scoring dipped a bit to 14th in the league (226 GF total). Even with that, the Flames ES prowess was still far superior as compared to the 05/06 benchmark (145 vs 108).

Tanguay and Huselius brought a unique sub-set of skills which had a direct and obvious effect on the clubs potency: excellent on-ice vision and an ability to make pin-point passes in traffic. In short, puck distribution. Tanguay did it better at ES, while Huselius excelled on the PP. Check out the assist rate/type for each player at behindthenet:

First ES production -


(click to enlarge)

Tanguay was the best on the team in terms of 1st assists at 5on5. Huselius was down around 5th (although 2nd behind Iginla in terms of goals/hour, incidentally).

PP production -


(click to enlarge)

There's Juice and Tangs (ha!) right near the top of the assist pile. Keep in mind that both guys had their worst years as Flames in terms of PP efficacy. Tanguay was number one the club last year in both ES and PP first assists, while Huselius ruled the roost in terms of total (first and second helpers) PP assist rates.

I guess my point in all this is that puck distribution is a very vital skill in offensive production. Several of the best offensive players in the game historically (Gretzky) and currently (Thornton, Crosby) were and are primarily assist-men. Their ability to consistently control and move the puck to high percentage scoring areas is key to manufacturing scoring chances (and, thereby, GF). And the Flames have jettisoned the two best players on the team at puck distribution and - with all apologies to Cammalleri and Bertuzzi - haven't replaced them.

During the off-season it's fairly common for fans to set-up hypothetical depth charts and line combinations with the objective of forecasting goal-production for each player based on a couple of factors (line mates, previous performance, wishful thinking, etc.). Example for the coming year:

Bertuzzi (20) - Langow (30) - Iginla (45)
Cammalleri (30) - Lombardi (20) - Boyd (15)

It's a facile exercise but the results seem reasonable, right? That's 160 goals total - more than the entire team scored at ES in 05/06. If the top two lines can manage those numbers, no need to worry, right?

These plug 'n play number forecasts are problematic because the assumptions are overly simplistic. Each player could probably be expected to get those totals in the right environment. The Flames offensive environment has changed drastically this summer due to the expulsion of the clubs best two passing forwards (and best PP player and 2nd best ES player etc). Keep in mind that Jarome Iginla managed just 67 points (33 as ES) in 05/06. His totals rocketed up to 94 (60 ES) and 98 (65 ES) once he started consistently playing with Tanguay and/or Huselius. In short, there's more Hull than Gretzky about this line-up now.

This is all my round-about way of expressing a new, nagging concern: who gets Iginla (or Cammalleri, or...) the puck next year?