"If men define situations as real, they are real in their consequences"
WI Thomas was originally talking about perceptions and their effects on social behavior, but I think the same can be said of the shoot-out in the post lock-out NHL.
In many ways, the shoot-out is not "real" hockey - chance plays a huge role, it happens only rarely, only a tiny sub-set of the team participates, only a small sub-set of hockey skills are tested and it goes away when the real season begins.
However, the shoot-out can have very real consequences, especially in a hotly contested division like the NW. It can mean the difference between placing third in the conference for instance, or perhaps missing the play-offs entirely.
This is an especially relevent topic for the Flames because Calgary has been one of the worst teams in the extra-extra frame since it's inception. Observe:
05/06 -
2W-7L
GF - 6 for 29 (20.7 S%, 26th)
GA - 12 on 26 (53.8 SV%, 26th)
06/07 -
3W-5L
GF - 9 for 29(31 S%, 17th)
GA - 11 on 27 (59.3 SV%, 23rd)
07/08 -
3W-3L
GF - 7 for 18 (38.9 S%, 8th)
GA - 6 on 17 (64.7%, 18th)
Total -
8W-15L (34.8 W%)
GF - 22 for 76 (28.9 S%)
GA - 29 on 70 (58.6 SV%)
What is perhaps heartening here is the steady improvement in both S% and SV%. It's hard to say whether this has to do with improvements in personnel (addition of Huselius) or strategy (practiced more often) or just a rebound back to the mean given that chance has a heavy hand in such small samples.
The bad news for Flames fans is the team lost it's best shooter to free agency this summer. Of the seven shoot-out goals Calgary managed last season, Kristian Huselius scored 4 of them (on just 5 shots). Jarome Iginla scored the rest. Juice's potential replacements in the lineup weren't in the same league as him in 07/08 (Cammalleri - 1/5, Bertuzzi, 1/6). So if Personnel is a strong contributing factor - meaning, if some guys really are better than others at the S/O (and not just luckier) - then the Flames might take a step back.
On the other hand, Kippers S/O SV% has been steadily climbing (in contrast to his actual SV%), meaning he may personally be getting better at stopping penalty shots. Then again, this may be all probabilistic, which suggests that the Kipper/Flames might be in line for further improvement just by virtue of "reversion to the mean".
There's been good posts elsewhere in the blogosphere suggesting that strategy may exert some influence on S/O results, above and beyond mere chance. Back in Sept. 07, the Forechecker wrote about a potential "handedness" effect:
It appears that there is a lefty/righty matchup advantage that coaches should keep in mind when selecting which players they want participating in the shootout. Much like baseball managers fill out their lineup or select pinch-hitters based on whether the pitcher is left- or right-handed, we have a situation in the NHL where matching the shooter's handedness with the goalie's catching glove hand can improve the shooter's chances. Here's a look at accumulated shooting percentages from the 2005-6 and 2006-7 regular season shootout totals, broken down by the shooter vs. goalie handedness:
Goalie L: Goalie R
Shooter L 36.0% 24.8%
Shooter R 29.7% 36.4%
Difference 6.3% 11.6%
For left-handed catching goalies (which are by far the majority), the difference isn't as significant as it is with the righties.
(For those unaware, Kipper is a lefty.)
These findings suggest that shooters have a higher chance of scoring on a like-handed goaltender. A coach should therefore match his shoot-out line-up with the catching glove of the opposing goalie whenever possible.
This summer, Tyler re-investigated the issue in this post:
Through two years, right handed shooting players were shooting 29.7% against left handed catching goalies and 36.4% against right handed catching goalies. Left handed shooting players were shooting 36.0% against left handed catching goalies and just 24.8% against right handed catching goalies...
It’s essentially a reverse platoon advantage from that which exists in baseball. Goalies who catch with their left hand do better against right handed shooters than left handed shooters and goalies who catch with their right hand do better against left handed shooters than right handed shooters. This makes intuitive sense, I think - a right handed shooter coming down on a right handed catching goalie (and a left handed shooter on a left handed catching goalie) have an advantage in that they can go high to the blocker side without having to shoot across their body.
It also doesn’t surprise me that the platoon advantage appears to be most severe for left handed shooters shooting on right handed goalies. Every goalie sees tons of right handed and left handed shots in practice. Not every shooter sees tons of right handed catching goalies though
This is enough to make me wonder, so I looked at last year’s numbers. What do we have? Well there appeared to be no platoon advantage last year with respect to left handed goalies - right handed shooters actually did better against them than left handed shooters did. With right handed goalies though, the effect was tremendous. Right handed shooters shot 33.8% against them, a success rate that falls right in between the 33.1% and 34.7% achieved by left and right handed shooters respectively against left handed catching goalies. Left handers though, got destroyed by right handed catching goalies, succeeding at only an 18.4% clip. (Sample size: ridiculously small.)
Take away message(s): practicing might have some effect, right handed shooters score more often than left handed shooters in general and LH have a very hard time scoring on RH goaltenders.
Take away for Flames fans (and Mike Keenan): load up on RH shooters, especially against RH 'tenders like Garon. Conversely, never put a LH shooter in the top 3 against a RH goalie.
It'll be interesting to see if these results persist through this season and if the LH versus LH advantage that occurred previously re-appears. And while I still think luck exerts a generous amount of influence on S/O results, heeding some of these emerging trends certainly couldn't hurt the Flames going forward into next season. They're going to need all the points they can get.
