Click to enlarge.
Building on yesterdays post, I decided to calculate each forward prospects expected NHL output using Desjardins translation figures.
The kids are ranked from best to worst expected performance, where "league" is the last place the guy in question played, "PPG" is points per game from their most recent season, "ratio" is the difficulty of the league relative to the NHL, "NHL equiv." is the expected PPG and "season PR" is a pro-rated, 82 game point total.
Discussion:
- Players expected results assumes circumstances similar to those in which a player produced actual results in the lower league. Therefore, Daniel Ryder might be reasonably expected to get around 38 points if he made the big team this season, as long as he got ample PP and ES time (assuming he played big minutes during his last year in the OHL). Obviously, Ryder wouldn't be topping 30 points if he played 5 minutes a game with Primeau and Roy.
- Keep age in mind when looking at the chart. Obviously 18 year-olds like Mitch Wahl and Greg Nemisz have many years of development ahead of them, whereas Carsen Germyn does not. Hugo Carpentier doesn't look too far behind those guys either, but his 65 point season as a 19/20 year old last year isn't nearly as compelling as Wahl's 73 point season as a 17/18 year-old, because Wahl has a few steps forward to take in Junior. Carpentier, however, does not - 63 points is the best he can do.
- Also not considered above is a hopefuls development arc. A general trend upwards suggests improvement, ie; building towards making the leap. Flat or declining rates usually mean a kid is at or nearing his peak already.
Chucko, for example, isn't a disappointing prospect only because his expected NHL results are crappy: he's disappointing because he's 22 and his performance has basically been flat for years.
- I included graduates Giordano, Nystrom and Boyd to test the predictive power of this process. As you can see, Giordano's expected and actual rates were very close while Nystrom actually outperformed his expected point total (not really though - again that final shinny game against the Canucks is skewing things. If one removes that, Nystrom drops down to 0.14 PPG pace).
Boyd underperformed his expected number, mainly due to circumstances. He likely got primo ice-time during his 60 point rookie year in the AHL, whereas he spent all his time as a 4th liner with the Flames. The pro-rated 30 point figure is what Boyd could probably have done with better line-mates and more ice-time.
- Backlund, Larson, Seitsonen and Cracknell were excluded because there were no difficulty ratios for their various leagues (Swe-1, USHL, ECHL).
- Of course, this methodology does not predict how often a kid will get scored on in the big leagues, which is probably half the equation. Ryder might be expected to theoretically score 35-40 points in a top 6 role for the Flames this coming season, but chances are he'd give up shots, chances and goals against by the boat-load.
