I've looked at the big club from just about every angle I can think of so far this summer. Perhaps it's time I considered some of the future assets and fringe players that will be skating from the organization this season.
David Van Der Gulik -
A guy I've pimped in this space for awhile. He's managed just over a 0.5 PPG pace in the AHL in checking/PK role the last two years. Charting VDG's progression prior to his professional career is tough because he spent most of his final season at Boston U being injured. He moved from 20 points his first two years, to 18 goals and 31 points in season three before managing 11 goals and 22 points in just 25 games in 05-06. His PPG rate those 4 seasons moved from 0.5 to 0.88 so there's a hint of improvement, despite the injury woes.
As mentioned previously, Van Der Gulik led the Omaha Flames and all AHL rookies in plus/minus in 06-07. He dropped back down to earth last season by this measure, largely because the team as a whole was markedly worse (lost Moss, Boyd, Taratuhkin, Giordano, Regehr and Nystrom), although he was still amongst the clubs leaders.
One of the most frustrating things about following AHL prospects from afar is the total dearth of in-depth stats. Counting numbers are available, but it's basically impossible to know how many minutes a guy is playing per night, or against whom. My impression that VDG is a top-notch penalty killer and shut-down guy has been culled from fan reports, media quotes and sound-bites, so it's possible Im mistaken. Still, the former 7th rounder has consistently out-performed guys like Nystrom, Chucko, Maki, Cunning, Peters and Prust by the counting numbers since he broke into the league.
All that said, this is probably Gulik's last kick at the NHL cat. He's already 25 and is at risk to become one of those lifetime AHL players who's kept around to help break in the kids every year. A lot of things will have to go right for him to even get a sniff at the big league this year, though, given the Flames overly stuffed roster and preponderance of one-way contracts. Not to mention the fact that four of his peers have been promoted ahead of him the last couple of seasons (Boyd, Moss, Nystrom and Prust) even though a couple of them put up lesser results. That seems to signal he's a "low priority" prospect in the organizations eyes and he will have to knock some asses out of the seats to get any kind promotional consideration.
Adam Pardy -
After an excellent training camp last September in which he appeared to be head and shoulders above many of the franchises other defensive prospects, Pardy went on to become one of the farms top defensemen. He's been mentioned as being close to "NHL ready" by Ryan McGill and has shown a decent development arc during his pro career. He played 41 games in the ECHL in 05/06, before making the AHL full time the next season and garnering 8 points in 70 games. Last year, Pardy was forced up the depth chart with the deletions of Richie Regehr and Mark Giordano and he responded with 5 goals and 18 points in 65 games.
Pardy will likely be on the top pairing again this season with Matt Pelech, unless one of the free-floating vets on the big squad gets sent down (Eriksson/Warrener). Even then, it'll be good news if Pardy can take another step in the right direction.
Daniel Ryder -
The Flames prodigal son. I considered Ryder one of the organizations top prospects along with Boyd and Taratuhkin a few years ago and was fairly disappointed when he washed out after just 5 AHL games last year. For a team lacking legitimate offensive youngsters, Ryder's apparent defection was a significant blow to the club's depth chart.
After taking a year off to...do whatever he needed to do, Daniel has decided to return. He's lost a season of development and it remains to be seen how committed he is to hockey after his hiatus, but it's still good news for Flame fans.
Ryder had himself an outstanding Junior career. He scored a boatload of points, was voted one of the leagues best penalty killers and face-off men, won the "Wayne Gretzky 99 award" as a play-off MVP in 05-06 (where he scored 15 goals and 31 points in 19 games) and twice went to the Memorial cup. Safe to say, no Flames prospect in recent memory has had anywhere near the kind of impressive resume Ryder now boasts.
A lot of curious eyes will be watching the younger Ryder to see what kind of steps he can take this time around. He wont be pressing for a big league job this year, but a solid season may indicate he's back on track.
Kris Chucko -
I've never liked this guy as a prospect and he's done little to sway me. His stats beyond one good year in the BCHL are worse than mediocre and he's failed to make any kind of impact the last couple seasons on the farm. I've seen Chucko live a couple of times and have never been impressed with any part of his game - from the physical tools down to the mental aspects. He skates awkwardly, can't seem to stick handle and doesn't have a nose for the net. There's nothing about him that is notable or compelling.
This is a swing year for Chucko. His development has been flat in the AHL and unless he takes a sizable step forward, he'll likely be passed-by for good by other kids. Were I a betting man, I'd say he puts up another 15 goal, 30 or so point performance and sinks into the morass ever after.
Matt Pelech -
By all accounts, a player that developed by leaps and bounds during his rookie year and one who could press to be a NHLer sooner rather than later. Being a Regehr-esque defender, his performance isn't really captured by the stats, so I have to take this stuff on faith for now.
Pelech is a big guy at 6'4", 220 pounds and is rumored to be both relatively mobile and hard hitting. He's not going to score a lot of points, but that's secondary if he can develop into shut-down stalwart type. Likely tabbed by the organization as the top defensive prospect, there's a chance he could make the leap this year or next. It will be interesting to see how long he lasts this pre-season and whether he can continue to make gains on the farm.
Ryan Wilson -
A free agent signing by Sutter this summer, I'd never heard of Wilson before the deal was announced. I was pleasantly surprised to discover he was a big-time point getter in his Junior days, scoring 60+ points in each of his last 3 years (twice topping 70 points). Those are some serious numbers for a defenseman.
Of course, the kid was undrafted and obviously comes with some warts. Word is he is a very awkward skater and has some decision-making issues, especially in his own end:
The areas of Wilson’s game that most need work are skating and defense. He was caught scrambling in his own end far too often, and lacks the recovery speed to conceal his mistakes. A hard worker and on-ice leader, if Wilson could clean up his defensive zone coverage, and work on his skating stride he would be a very solid prospect.
Wilson is a no-risk acquisition. The Flames have zero real offensive prospects on the back-end, so the 21 year-old will probably be handed the keys to the QC power-play. At worst, his weaknesses overwhelm him and we never hear from him again. At best, the minor club has a PP quarterback who could potentially become a 3rd pairing, special teams kind of guy down the road. Good news for fans (and Wilson) is the Flames have been pretty good at identifying undrafted defensive talent since Sutter took the reigns (although they haven't been very good at developing it).
Matt Keeltey/Leland Irving -
The battle to become Kipper's heir apparent begins this October in Quad Cities.
Keetley put up decent stats during his WHL career. He won a memorial cup with the Medicine Hat Tigers his last year in the Dub, then managed some not-too-bad numbers in his rookie debut last year (10-8-1, 2.33 GAA 0.912 SV%).
Irving had the better Junior career stats-wise, but took a very notable step backwards his last season in the league. I'm not sure if this was due to internal or external factors. Even with that, Irving was in the top 10 in terms of WHL goaltenders, meaning he didn't fall off a ledge and land into the land of the mediocre.
With Krahn gone and McElhinney (probably) shuttled upwards, the way is clear for Keetley and Irving to duke it out mano-a-mano. I assume the two will be deployed as a duo unless one proves to be obviously better than the other. I'm not even going to try to predict who will come out the victor, although Irving has the better pedigree.
That's my look at the possibles. Excluded were Lundmark (AHL fodder), Greentree and Backlund (discussed elsewhere), Taratuhkin (gone, never coming back), the newly drafted who remain in Junior and the various indistinguishables that clutter every team's minor ranks. What I have here are the guys I think are approaching a transition phase of their young career or are within spitting distance of making the bigs. Feel free to add your own comments or impressions.
