Thursday, August 28, 2008

I think it's called PRE-cognition

So one day after I condemn Ottawa for dicking around with the Meszaros negotiations, the guy goes and signs a big, fat offer sheet (allegedly):

"I think Mez is a potentially good young defenseman who had a bit of an off-year this past year, and we've asked their camp to entertain that in what we're trying to do with him," Murray said. "I think we've made more than a fair offer and put ourselves in a position where he could come here and, with some help, we think he can be a top player.

"We need their camp to help us in that area as well. I've tried to get that message across, but to this point, we haven't gotten there."

The Ottawa Sun is reporting Meszaros was looking for a deal in the $4.5 million per year range while Ottawa had countered with an offer of $3.5 million per.


Murray should have heeded my warning:

News Flash guys...you have destroyed any leverage you might have had in negotiations. Meszaros has you over a barrel and I'm sure his agent knows it. From the angle out west, it looks like you need him more than he needs you. I would suggest paying him whatever he wants (short of ridiculous Phaneuf money) or dealing him for some sort of return forth-with.

Heh. Fortunes told and futures revealed! Please have your credit card ready when you call...

H/T Mirtle

UPDATE - there's some question of what Meszaros might be worth, particularly to the team he'll no doubt be leaving soon. Murray suggests above that Mez had an "off-year". Some Sens fans seem to agree. Here's what the stats say:

9g-27a-36pts

QUAL COMP: 0.00
ESP: 0.80
GFON/60: 2.88
GAON/60: 2.69
Corsi: +1.6

Meszaros saw slightly better competition than Redden, scored at a similar rate and allowed 0.37 less goals against per hour. What's more, he was more effective than the $6.5M Man on the PP as well, scoring 3.78 PPP/60 to Redden's 3.12. Further, Meszaros was the bigger "difference maker" with the man advantage: the team scored at a rate of 7.03 goals per hour with Mez on the ice, but only 6.49 with him off the ice (a difference of 0.54). In contrast, the Sens actually improved without Redden, managing 7.11 goals/60 with him on the bench but just 6.25 when he was manning the blueline (-0.86).

Let's not forget that Meszaros is just 22 years-old and several years away from reaching his ceiling. Redden, after a couple years of tangible decline, is probably on the wrong side of the career curve.

The kid has scored more than 30 points in each of his three seasons in the league. He leapt directly from the junior leagues in Slovakia into the Sens top 4. He's no shut-down guy yet, but that really looks like a fairly valuable asset to me and a potential very good to elite player in the future. Whoever gave him the offer-sheet may be onto something, even at what seems like an over-pay of $5M plus.

The Sens? I think they'll let the guy walk. Im not so sure that's the right move, however.