Monday, August 11, 2008

Numbers

Numbers: sports fans love 'em. We debate the intangibles, but numbers provide the fulcrums for our arguments. Our carefully thought out comparisons and prescriptions for trade strategems and lineup changes are all at least partially based on the numbers, the data, the line, the truth.

I wanted to throw out some of the common milestones that hockey players strive for, some of the common measures, that we, as fans use to contemplate the fates of our favorites and their progress or decline. We can't wait for the games to happen, we want to predict, nay, interdict by yelling at the blow dried talking heads on TV or by furiously typing into the internet darkness, that we know the answers and its in the numbers!

Anyway some of the numbers:


Individual/Season

20 goals: Basically the standard expected of a top 6 forward, very good year for a defenceman, very good year for a rookie

30 goals: Solid year. Demarcation to be considered a 'scorer'

40 goals: All star level. These guys get or will get north of 6 million/year.

50 goals: Award level. Only 7 guys have gotten to 50 since the lockout.

100 points: This achievement used to be just below the 50 goal hurdle, but in the new NHL 100 point seasons are roughly on par with 50 goals, usually reserved for the league's elite.

80 points: Or maybe 82 points; a point a game. I think this is basically taking over from the old 100 point season, as the entry level to be considered a 'star', as the dead puck era lowers scoring totals. Usually the best player on a team approaches this mark, the sign of high accomplishment.

goalies

40 wins: Watered down a bit, because of the new OT and SO rules? Probably. I think a bigger influence is the salary cap encouraging one goalie to play 70+ games. Still a great year. Maybe call it the Brodeur line?

Goals against average used to be the goalie stat when I started watching the game, I think, now though, its pretty widely accepted that GAA is more of a team defense number and the more goalie-centric stat is Save Percentage.

.900 SV% This used to be a great save percentage, but as the Dead Puck Era deepened and equipment, coaching, and talent improved, .900 has become the floor for an NHL goalie, not the ceiling. If you had a .900 save percentage in 07/08 you would have placed 38th in the league. I think the new goalie number is .920, but who knows, this number could still be evolving.

Individual/Career

500 goals: Still the gold standard for a career. Only 41 players have reached this milestone. Or think of it this way; of the thousands of guys who've played in the NHL over the last century, you could fit all the 500 goal scorers on a greyhound bus. I explained here why I think this group isn't going to grow quickly anytime soon.

1000 points: The sound of that really speaks to the accomplishment, a thousand of anything is a lot. About 70 players have reached this number, I'd say thats probably the top 1 or 2 % of players who've ever played.

300 wins: I always thought of this record as analagous to 300 wins by a pitcher, but with the OT and SO I think 300 wins for a goalie will eventually be replaced by 400 wins as the career touchstone.

games played

1 game: The dream of everyone who laced up a pair of skates. One game in the show: you made it!

400 games: 5 years of effort, a good solid career. I think this number is still used to determine the size of an NHL pension.

1000 games: A nice round number, if not particularly that exclusive anymore, with expansion and escalation of salaries, longer careers were possible and desirable. I think 1200 games played (about 15 years) will eventually become a more important marker.


Team Numbers

.500 record: Used to get you into the playoffs, thanks Gary

100% If you add the PK rate and the PP rate together you'll get a number that's close to 100. The good teams are usually above and bad ones below. I've heard Keenan mention it, so I presume teams track it, but I've never seen it 'officially' collated by the NHL.

The 'new' numbers?

Gabe Desjardins and some of the blogoshpere's brightest minds like tyler, vic, chris and a lot of other guys I don't mean to slight by not mentioning them here are really expanding a hockey fan's knowledge by examining other kinds of numbers and looking for meaningful statistics that are more useful in determining a player's value. These efforts are maturing, but I confess I don't really have a handle on any really memorable number/milestones like the ones above. Maybe some readers can pitch in.

For example, I think Even Strength Points per 60 minutes is the most common of these new stats but what is the ESP/60 standard?

The numbers above are the nice round numbers, the lines on the ruler so to speak, but there's not a ton of romance to them, what are the hockey numbers that rival baseball's '61' or '755' ? Eclectic numbers that are memorable all on their own. I'll open that up for everyone to comment on, but some of the ones that seem to stick with me:

21 seconds: 3 goals by billy mosienko
801 career goals by Howe
50 goals in 50 games by Richard, and now a standard for greatness
39 games to get to 50 by Gretzky, shattering Richard's mark

What are everyone's favorite Hockey numbers?