With the exception of perhaps one more move to bring in a vet up front (and get rid of a vet on the back-end), the Flames are pretty much set. As such, I've been mulling over my own expectations for the club going into the 07/08 season. First let's deal with some of the individuals:
Damond Langkow/Kristian Huselius:
I put these guys together because they both experienced similar career seasons last year. Langkow's been a consistent 50-60 point getter for ages now, so while his jump up to 77 wasn't a huge one, it was unprecedented. Conversely, Juice's previous career high was in the 40 point range, meaning he skipped a couple of grades in one fell swoop.
This all shrieks "regression to the mean" to me. Huselius' shooting percentage was a very good 19.7% last year, nearly 6% above his previous best. That just doesn't seem sustainable, despite his undeniable puck skills. And while Langkow's SP of 13.4% was pretty much right in line with his career average, he somehow managed to shoot much MORE than usual last season: his 247 shots on net are the most he's posted in his career, a full 25 more than his previous high and nearly 60 shots higher than his previous career average (187).
Let's say they both fall back into their "career norms". Juice shooting at 14% over 170 shots yields about 24 goals. Langkow managing 190 shots at about a 13% shooting accuracy yields roughly 25 goals. That's a 10 and 8 goal reduction, respectively. Since they play together a lot, let's assume each assists on 50% of the other's goals. That's another 4 points gone for Langkow and 5 points gone for Huselius. Altogether, I think it's sensible to assume about a 15 point drop for each guy next year. That would return Langkow back to his usual 60-odd point standard and correct that big hockey stick in Huselius' career-point graph.
There'll likely be some external mitigating factors as well. If Nolan can be a slightly more capable line-mate than, say, Amonte or Moss, he might contribute to each guys assist totals and soften the regression a bit. Of course, there's also the Keenan factor: if Huselius gets dropped from the first unit PP (which is where he really excels), his point totals with further plummet. On the other hand, if Langkow ends up between Iginla and Tanguay at ES he'll be in line for another career year.
Anyways, all things being equal, I expect both guys points totals to drop, relative to last season. They stepped outside of established norms in 06/07, meaning the rubber band is bound to snap back to some degree next year.
Jarome Iginla/Alex Tanguay:
Iginla had a monster season last year where he was amongst the leagues elite in terms of PPG and ESP. Tanguay certainly had something to do with that: he's a proven performer at ES and his presence helped wrench the Flames top-6 forwards more than a few steps towards offensive respectability.
However, last season was hardly perfect for both players. Tanguay struggled during his first 3 weeks as a Flame (2 goals, 5 points in 10 GP) and he never managed to get it going on the PP: his production rate with the man advantage actually lagged behind his 5on5 production efficiency for the first half of the year! So while his 06/07 point total of 81 represents a career high (only 2 higher than previous best of 79), I think it's reasonable to expect as good or better from Tanguay next year. He's all but guaranteed significant ice-time with Jarome Iginla, and it's unlikely he'll go through any more "growing pains". In addition, one can sensibly predict an increase in his PP efficacy: the Flames have a strong cast for the first unit PP (Phaneuf, Iginla, Huselius, etc.) and typically difference makers nearly double their efficiency rates on the PP. Tanguay's PPP/60 rate was a mere 3.82 (21 points in 330 minutes), which is all of 0.54 more than his ESP/60 rate of 3.28 (60 points in 1097 minutes). That's an inexplicably poor ratio and, to my way of thinking, an unsustainable one considering his talent and teammates. Let's say he makes a two point jump in PP efficiency in 07/08 to something like 5.30 PPP/60: 330 PP minutes over the course of the season would mean an extra 10 PP points or so. Assuming Tanguay's ES production remains pretty stable, a 90+ point year for him isn't beyond the realm of possibility.
As for Iginla, he was injured for a ten game stretch in January and never really seemed to regain his form. By no means was he bad (19 points in 14 games in Feb.), but he certainly wasn't as dominant after January as he was prior. His ES differential in particular took the biggest hit: after returning to action on February 2, Iginla was a cumulative -2 for the rest of the regular season. If I remember correctly, his ESP rate dropped during that time (although his PP efficiency improved a bit) and he was getting scored on a lot more...
Does this mean one can expect the same from Jarome next year? More points assuming a full season? On the other hand, Iginla's numbers were pretty close to the career best stats he put up way back in 01/02, so should we instead assume a return to earth? Iggy has proven to be a bit of a yo-yo in the past - he followed up 01/02 with a 35 goal, 67 point performance. In fact, since 2000 his stats line reads like this: 71-96-67-73-67-94. Down-up-down-up.
That pattern doesn't speak well for next year. Course, this roster is probably the best assortment of players Jarome's played with so far in his career. So that means he may be insulated from a big drop by the surrounding talent.
Hmm...lots of conflicting stuff to consider in Iginla's case. Im going to go with "everything cancels out" and he puts up similar raw numbers to last season. I think he'll be hard pressed to replicate that PPG pace, but Im guessing he'll play more than 70 contests. So let's say another 94 points over 80 or so games.
Matthew Lombardi:
Lombardi was one of the best forwards during the Flames early season struggles in October 06. He scored 10 points in the first 10 games and was +7, despite the fact the team was playing on the road and losing. In fact, he was a minus player only once in the first 25 games, a stretch in which he also scored 18 points. He scored another 15 points in 22 games before stepping into quicksand in February. During a 10 game stretch from Jan.30 - Feb. 17, he scored just 4 points and was a -1. He would go on to score only 2 goals and 9 points for the rest of the year (22 games) after that.
So, Conroy was acquired in February, which resulted in Lombardi's average ice time sinking (he twice played less than 8 minutes in March and was scratched outright once) and with it the quality of his teammates and his confidence. The coincidence of the Conroy trade with Lombardi's reduction in effectiveness is a striking one: The Flames got Conroy back on January 29th. Starting January 30th, Lombardi didn't score any points in the next 4 games and he didn't garner more than 15:30 of ice in any of those contests (in contrast to the prior 4 games: 16:30, 19:40, 18:10 and 17:06). In fact, prior to Conroy re-joining the team, Lombardi's ice had dropped below the 15 minute mark only 5 times total, the last occurrence being Nov.25. After Jan.29th, Lombardi played 15 minutes or less 16 times.
The point of all this is: Lombardi played less and played with lesser players once he got bumped from the top 6. And it hurt it him pretty badly. Expectations for Lombo should be mediated by his place in line-up and will therefore depend on where he gets deployed in the roster. Unlike established difference makers who can "play themselves out of" the bottom-six, Lombardi is an all-or-nothing kind of guy. He can be sunk by lesser teammates and he's not going to drive the bus on the bottom-lines all by himself. With some ice and some linemates, Lombardi can be a pretty decent producer: he's scary fast, has a good shot and some deft hands around the net. He's not big, he's doesn't grind in the corners too well and he's definitely not going to beat anyone up. He's wasted among the bottom-six and it's my hope he'll usurp the aging Conroy and land amongst the top half of the roster this coming season.
Assuming that happens, expect a career year from Lombardi. Nothing like a 30+ Huselius-like gain, of course, but maybe in the 50-55 point range. From Oct.5th '06 to January 28th '07, Lombardi was a 0.65 PPG player. If he can keep that up over the entire 07/08 season, he'll score about 53 points. That would represent an encouraging step forward for the young centerman and for the organizational depth chart in general.
Course, if Lombardi wins the lottery and gets placed between Iginla and Tanguay for a majority of the year, expect a bigger jump. Conversely, if he lands amongst the bottom-6, make sure to trade/sell/waive him from your fantasy team post haste.
Dion Phaneuf:
Phaneuf has been pretty consistent during his first 2 years: Great offence, so-so defence. He was sheltered a bunch by Sutter his rookie year and took on middling competition last season after his first month of playing with Regehr didn't go too well.
If Dion can take the next step, he'll be more reliable at ES and will probably garner more minutes. Course, that could end up costing him PP time (though considering Keenan's penchant for riding the big horses hard, I doubt it).
Certain signs suggest this may happen. Phaneuf has 160+ games under his belt and is entering a contract season and you can bet Keenan's going to push him as hard as Sutter (or harder). If he can respond to these pressures, expect his point total to go up a tad and his GA/60 rate to go down. The latter stat is the more significant when it comes to these considerations and is the one to watch as the season goes on.
Team Stuff:
First and foremost, I expect a better penalty kill from the Flames next year. Considering the personnel (particularly the goaltender) this should be, at the very least, a team in the top half the league in terms of PK efficiency. Calgary floundered when down a man last year and somehow managed to be amongst the worst 8 teams in the league. Teams that were superior to the Flames (80.4%) included:
Columbus (81.2%)
Boston (81.7%)
NY Islanders (81.8%)
Florida (82.4%)
Chicago (82.6%)
Philadelphia (84.5%)
That's right...at least 6 terrible teams (4 of which with suspect goaltending) outperformed the Flames on the PK. And I didn't include Carolina (84.6%) or Edmonton (84.6%) because they were actually in the top 10 in the league.
Part of the issue was Kipper's PK SV% . He dropped from a top notch .932 SV% at ES to a very mediocre 0.885 SV% at 4on5. Assuming that stat isn't wholly dependent on team effects, a return to form by Kipper would go a long way to helping the PK out.
Naturally, the surrounding skaters do exert a sizable measure of influence on PK success or failure. There were a number obvious issues that led the Flames lack luster penalty kill:
- Struggles of Stephane Yelle and Marcus Nilson. Two guys who were either injured, or strugged to regain their form after injury last year. Both are highly capable defensive forwards when they're on their games.
- Rhett Warrener's presence on the PK. Ignoring Brad Stuart, Warrener averaged the 2nd most SH minutes (3:20/game) of any Calgary blueliner behind Robyn Regehr (4:13/game). This, despite the fact he was frequently hobbled by chronic injuries that slowed him significantly. Warrener was never the best skater or puck mover even in the prime of life - slowed by pain and restricted by the obstruction crack-down, Rhettsky was frequently detrimental on the ice last year. He had problems keeping up with the play, battling in the corners and, especially, clearing the puck. If the additions of Aucoin and Sarich (and the development of Phaneuf) can reduce Warrener's SH ice-time, Im willing to bet the PK will be all the better for it.
- Robyn Regehr's difficulty acclimating to life without Jordan Leopold. Reggie had issues for the first half of the season, particularly on the PK. He made a number of simple errors during that time frame that had me thinking I had overestimated his abilities. Of course, he was also paired with less-than-capable partners those days as well: first Dion Phaneuf and then the aforementioned Rhett Warrener. He really settled down after Brad Stuart was brought in and was easily the best defender down the stretch. He finished the season with a team leading +27 rating and was far and away the best defenseman at oppressing goals against (1.87 GA/60).
As such, I believe if Regehr is consistently paired with a capable partner the PK will markedly improve.
(The man for the job looks to be Corey Sarich. He led the Lightning in terms of average SH minutes last year and was on of the best on the team in terms of GA/60 rates).
Of course, the most pressing team weakness last season was the abysmal road performance. Everything about the Flames was MUCH WORSE away from the saddledome: power play (20.5% vs 15.6%), penalty kill (82.3% vs. 78.7%), goals for (142 vs. 113) and goals against (91 vs. 130). That's right...the Flames were +51 at home and -17(!) on the road. That's an incredible 68 point differential.
Coaching issues and such aside, the kind of Jekyll and Hyde routine evidenced above is so absurdly lopsided it can't possibly continue into 07/08. Not to that degree. The rules favoring the home team as they do means almost everyone experiences a drop in their stats on the road - but I'm betting you'd be hard pressed to find another club in the league that differed this widely.
With the addition of Keenan, the demoting of Playfair and the jettisoning of dead weight from the bottom-six, I expect the Flames to be at least passable away from the Dome in 07/08. Is a 0.500 road record too much ask from this roster? I don't think so...
Anyways, those are my rather rambling thoughts on the subject(s). Overall, I think all signs point to "improvement"....
Feel free to disagree in the comments.
Wednesday, August 15, 2007
Monday, August 13, 2007
Fun With Keyword Analysis
To escape the oppressive nothing that's going on in hockey right now I took a virtual stroll through the Site Meter stats...
Among other things, I learned that the blogs title acts as a bit of siren to a tiny fraction of anonymous perverts that travel Ye Olde Intraweb. To those horny few that stumble upon this site by accident...I'm sorry, but I can't help you in your quest for "strapon fanatics", "fanatics sex", "hole sex" (Is there any other kind?) and "straight glory holes in Edmonton".
For info on the latter subject, perhaps click the "covered in oil" link at right...
Among other things, I learned that the blogs title acts as a bit of siren to a tiny fraction of anonymous perverts that travel Ye Olde Intraweb. To those horny few that stumble upon this site by accident...I'm sorry, but I can't help you in your quest for "strapon fanatics", "fanatics sex", "hole sex" (Is there any other kind?) and "straight glory holes in Edmonton".
For info on the latter subject, perhaps click the "covered in oil" link at right...
Friday, August 10, 2007
On Draft Picks
Newly formed fears of the offer-sheet specter have given rise to questions regarding the true value of draft picks. What's a 1st round pick really worth anyways? What are the chances a team is going to actually get a future NHLer?
Here's how I decided to tackle the question...
First, I collected the data from the first 3 rounds from each entry draft starting in 1990 and ending in 2000. I figured that would be a generous sample size and it would yield players that are basically set on their career paths. Some guys from 2001 and upwards are still establishing themselves in the league and it would likely skew the results if I were to include those years.
I wanted to look at things from a pure, basic probabilistic model: like randomly choosing cards from a deck. I defined a "desired result" a little differently for every position...
For defencemen, I considered a "hit" to be a player that managed to play 160 games or more at the NHL level. That's it. I thought of including further parameters, such as production stats, but ran the risk of needlessly excluding useful players since the value of defencemen isn't tpyically captured in counting numbers like goals and assists.
For forwards, I used the same 160 GP line in the sand and added a minimum 0.30 career PPG pace parameter. Basically, I wanted to cull the Rico Fata-type players that manage to stick around long enough as journeymen (Fata played 230 games), but never really make any kind of impact to the unfortunate teams that get stuck with them.
For goalies, I dropped the "games played" requirement down to 100 and stuck with that. This seemed to seperate the actual players from the busts well enough .
Granted, the boundaries are somewhat arbitrary: I could have chosen 100 GP and a career pace of 0.50 PPG for forwards and gotten different results. However, I think the 160 GP is a fair minimum - it's about 2 seasons of work for a skater. If a guy couldn't stick around for at least 2 years of work in the league, it's fair to say he wasn't much of a player. Also, the 0.30 PPG rate managed to capture most of the effective forwards over the decade, even so-called "defensive specialists", while excluding the Rico Fata's and Tyler Wright's of the world. I think it's intuitive and reasonable to expect a forward to have some sort of offensive impact over a career. Fair to say, your Franchise hasn't gained much if it drafts Shawn Antoski (183GP, 3G, 5A, 8P).
Goaltending is a different matter altogether. Stats are very team dependent (and even "era" dependent) meaning I couldn't well rely on any kind of GAA or SV% line in the sand to cull the wheat from the chaffe. Since it's so singular and important a position, I figured any goalie that could play at least 100 games in the league could likely be considered an NHL caliber player.
I also added a subjective measure to the analysis by counting the number of players I personally recognized as "significant contributors" (ie stars and superstars). Sure there's probably an element of bias, but it gives at least some idea of the chances of hitting a "home-run".
The results:
(click to enlarge)
Round 1 -
From 1990 to 2000, there were 282 players chosen in the first round: 89 defencemen, 170 forwards and 22 goalies. Of the 282 players, 163 proved to be "contributors" at the NHL as defined by the criterion above. Sixty-four were defenders, 88 were forwards and 11 were goalies.
163/282 = 59% gross success rate across 11 first rounds. That's not too shabby.
Of the 163 contributors, 63 were "stars" by my personal estimation. That's a 22% success rate in terms of the total players chosen and a 39% chance you get a big-time difference maker as opposed to just Joe-Schmo NHLer.
Round 2 -
There were 302 players selected in the 2nd round during the decade in question. 104 , 175 and 24 of defencemen, forwards and goalies, respectively. As would be expected, the success rate declined significantly as compared to round 1: 74 players went on to become NHL players (only 25 of them stars).
74/302 = 24.5% chance of garnering a useful player from the second round. The probability of grabbing a star is a mere 8%.
Round 3 -
The difference between the second and third rounds wasn't as drastic. From 1990 to 2000, 288 players were chosen in round 3, 85 of which were defenders, 176 forwards and another 27 goaltenders. Eighteen blueliners went on to be players, as well as 32 forwards and just 5 goalies, for a total of 55 contributors.
55/288 = 19% chance of drafting an NHLer in the 3rd round. Twenty-four of the 55 were big time contributors by my count, making it an 8.3% chance of getting a front-liner (or top two defender, etc) when choosing in the 50's and 60's.
Admittedly, not the best of odds.
All Picks Aren't Created Equal
Of course, having the first choice overall isn't the same as having the 25th choice overall. Clearly, as the draft progresses the talent is whittled down. To generate more specific probabilities, I parsed the data into Top 5 picks, top 10 picks and top 15 picks.
Not surprisingly, Choosing in the top 5 meant a 98% chance of yielding an NHL player . Of the 55 players picked, only 3 failed to become NHL regulars (Alex Volchkov, Pavel Brendl and Jason Bosignore). Twenty-eight of the 52 went on to become stars (51%).
A top 10 choice was only slightly worse. 82 of the 110 players became contributors (75%) and 35 of them became stars (31%). The probability of getting an NHLer within the top 15 dropped down to 68% (112 of 165) with a 27% chance of grabbing a star (45/112).
Course, sample size becomes an issue here, but the general trend is hard to ignore: A top 5 pick seems to all but ensure a future NHL player.
The benefits of choosing near the top of the rotation dissipate beyond the first round, however. I gathered together the first 5 picks from the various 2nd rounds and discovered that only 17 of the 55 players in question became contributors (31%) and 5 became stars (9%), which pretty closely mirrors the general 2nd round probabilities. That suggests to me that future quality players are more or less randomly distributed amongst the turds after round 1, and organizational factors (quality of scouting, developmental system) are probably more important than draft position.
Issues
- Clearly this investigation is neither air-tight, nor exhaustive. I don't have the will or the mathematical chops to put this data through a more rigorous (and valid) analysis.
- Keep in mind that draft position changed as the league expanded. A 2nd round pick in 1991 was a first round pick in 1999.
- As mentioned, the "minimum requirements" for a player to be considered an NHLer, and therefore of future value (a "contributor") were pretty arbitrary. There's probably a more valid method of determining cut-off points within the data set itself, but I think the qualitatively intuitive parameters I chose work well enough for an initial inquiry like this one.
- In the future, a larger representative sample size, including equal round lengths (1-30, 31-61, etc) might smooth out some wrinkles.
- Treating the draft as a purely probabilistic event isn't very accurate. GM's don't just choose names out of hat (although the Flames Franchise probably would have done BETTER during the 90's had they done that). Quality of an organization's scouting staff and development system no doubt have an effect on a given team's success rate.
- Draft quality varies by year. Some summers yield numerous high quality NHLers (1997), while others are less fecund (1996). The depth of a given draft will no doubt effect success rates.
Conclusions
Assuming the limitations of my investigation don't render it completely worthless, there did seem to be some interesting observable trends. A first rounder looks to be slightly better than a coin flip overall, with a top 5 choice representing an almost sure-fire future player. The reduction in "talent density" in the 2nd and 3rd rounds as compared to the first is considerable, with the basic 3rd rounder representing roughly a 19% chance of choosing a contributor at any position.
Based on this info, the best strategy would seem to be gathering as many draft picks as possible in order to increase your chances of a "hit", or alternatively, banishing single picks beyond the first round for established NHLers. I think the percentages suggest that a lone 3rd (or even 2nd) rounder on it's own doesn't seem to have a great deal of utility.
EDIT - For anyone who wants to play with this stuff themselves, I've published the raw data at google spreadsheets here.
Here's how I decided to tackle the question...
First, I collected the data from the first 3 rounds from each entry draft starting in 1990 and ending in 2000. I figured that would be a generous sample size and it would yield players that are basically set on their career paths. Some guys from 2001 and upwards are still establishing themselves in the league and it would likely skew the results if I were to include those years.
I wanted to look at things from a pure, basic probabilistic model: like randomly choosing cards from a deck. I defined a "desired result" a little differently for every position...
For defencemen, I considered a "hit" to be a player that managed to play 160 games or more at the NHL level. That's it. I thought of including further parameters, such as production stats, but ran the risk of needlessly excluding useful players since the value of defencemen isn't tpyically captured in counting numbers like goals and assists.
For forwards, I used the same 160 GP line in the sand and added a minimum 0.30 career PPG pace parameter. Basically, I wanted to cull the Rico Fata-type players that manage to stick around long enough as journeymen (Fata played 230 games), but never really make any kind of impact to the unfortunate teams that get stuck with them.
For goalies, I dropped the "games played" requirement down to 100 and stuck with that. This seemed to seperate the actual players from the busts well enough .
Granted, the boundaries are somewhat arbitrary: I could have chosen 100 GP and a career pace of 0.50 PPG for forwards and gotten different results. However, I think the 160 GP is a fair minimum - it's about 2 seasons of work for a skater. If a guy couldn't stick around for at least 2 years of work in the league, it's fair to say he wasn't much of a player. Also, the 0.30 PPG rate managed to capture most of the effective forwards over the decade, even so-called "defensive specialists", while excluding the Rico Fata's and Tyler Wright's of the world. I think it's intuitive and reasonable to expect a forward to have some sort of offensive impact over a career. Fair to say, your Franchise hasn't gained much if it drafts Shawn Antoski (183GP, 3G, 5A, 8P).
Goaltending is a different matter altogether. Stats are very team dependent (and even "era" dependent) meaning I couldn't well rely on any kind of GAA or SV% line in the sand to cull the wheat from the chaffe. Since it's so singular and important a position, I figured any goalie that could play at least 100 games in the league could likely be considered an NHL caliber player.
I also added a subjective measure to the analysis by counting the number of players I personally recognized as "significant contributors" (ie stars and superstars). Sure there's probably an element of bias, but it gives at least some idea of the chances of hitting a "home-run".
The results:
(click to enlarge)From 1990 to 2000, there were 282 players chosen in the first round: 89 defencemen, 170 forwards and 22 goalies. Of the 282 players, 163 proved to be "contributors" at the NHL as defined by the criterion above. Sixty-four were defenders, 88 were forwards and 11 were goalies.
163/282 = 59% gross success rate across 11 first rounds. That's not too shabby.
Of the 163 contributors, 63 were "stars" by my personal estimation. That's a 22% success rate in terms of the total players chosen and a 39% chance you get a big-time difference maker as opposed to just Joe-Schmo NHLer.
Round 2 -
There were 302 players selected in the 2nd round during the decade in question. 104 , 175 and 24 of defencemen, forwards and goalies, respectively. As would be expected, the success rate declined significantly as compared to round 1: 74 players went on to become NHL players (only 25 of them stars).
74/302 = 24.5% chance of garnering a useful player from the second round. The probability of grabbing a star is a mere 8%.
Round 3 -
The difference between the second and third rounds wasn't as drastic. From 1990 to 2000, 288 players were chosen in round 3, 85 of which were defenders, 176 forwards and another 27 goaltenders. Eighteen blueliners went on to be players, as well as 32 forwards and just 5 goalies, for a total of 55 contributors.
55/288 = 19% chance of drafting an NHLer in the 3rd round. Twenty-four of the 55 were big time contributors by my count, making it an 8.3% chance of getting a front-liner (or top two defender, etc) when choosing in the 50's and 60's.
Admittedly, not the best of odds.
All Picks Aren't Created Equal
Of course, having the first choice overall isn't the same as having the 25th choice overall. Clearly, as the draft progresses the talent is whittled down. To generate more specific probabilities, I parsed the data into Top 5 picks, top 10 picks and top 15 picks.
Not surprisingly, Choosing in the top 5 meant a 98% chance of yielding an NHL player . Of the 55 players picked, only 3 failed to become NHL regulars (Alex Volchkov, Pavel Brendl and Jason Bosignore). Twenty-eight of the 52 went on to become stars (51%).
A top 10 choice was only slightly worse. 82 of the 110 players became contributors (75%) and 35 of them became stars (31%). The probability of getting an NHLer within the top 15 dropped down to 68% (112 of 165) with a 27% chance of grabbing a star (45/112).
Course, sample size becomes an issue here, but the general trend is hard to ignore: A top 5 pick seems to all but ensure a future NHL player.
The benefits of choosing near the top of the rotation dissipate beyond the first round, however. I gathered together the first 5 picks from the various 2nd rounds and discovered that only 17 of the 55 players in question became contributors (31%) and 5 became stars (9%), which pretty closely mirrors the general 2nd round probabilities. That suggests to me that future quality players are more or less randomly distributed amongst the turds after round 1, and organizational factors (quality of scouting, developmental system) are probably more important than draft position.
Issues
- Clearly this investigation is neither air-tight, nor exhaustive. I don't have the will or the mathematical chops to put this data through a more rigorous (and valid) analysis.
- Keep in mind that draft position changed as the league expanded. A 2nd round pick in 1991 was a first round pick in 1999.
- As mentioned, the "minimum requirements" for a player to be considered an NHLer, and therefore of future value (a "contributor") were pretty arbitrary. There's probably a more valid method of determining cut-off points within the data set itself, but I think the qualitatively intuitive parameters I chose work well enough for an initial inquiry like this one.
- In the future, a larger representative sample size, including equal round lengths (1-30, 31-61, etc) might smooth out some wrinkles.
- Treating the draft as a purely probabilistic event isn't very accurate. GM's don't just choose names out of hat (although the Flames Franchise probably would have done BETTER during the 90's had they done that). Quality of an organization's scouting staff and development system no doubt have an effect on a given team's success rate.
- Draft quality varies by year. Some summers yield numerous high quality NHLers (1997), while others are less fecund (1996). The depth of a given draft will no doubt effect success rates.
Conclusions
Assuming the limitations of my investigation don't render it completely worthless, there did seem to be some interesting observable trends. A first rounder looks to be slightly better than a coin flip overall, with a top 5 choice representing an almost sure-fire future player. The reduction in "talent density" in the 2nd and 3rd rounds as compared to the first is considerable, with the basic 3rd rounder representing roughly a 19% chance of choosing a contributor at any position.
Based on this info, the best strategy would seem to be gathering as many draft picks as possible in order to increase your chances of a "hit", or alternatively, banishing single picks beyond the first round for established NHLers. I think the percentages suggest that a lone 3rd (or even 2nd) rounder on it's own doesn't seem to have a great deal of utility.
EDIT - For anyone who wants to play with this stuff themselves, I've published the raw data at google spreadsheets here.
Tuesday, August 07, 2007
Sex Sells
Just because I don't think this is getting enough attention (and also because there's not a lot else worth talking about out there at the moment) I thought I'd swipe this provocative little poster from A2Y:
Seems there was some general dissatisfaction amongst Detroit fans when it came to their ill-advised "Fire on Ice" marketing campaign. Apparently IwoCPO has been soliciting readers and such for more viable alternatives.
Mission accomplished.
Seems there was some general dissatisfaction amongst Detroit fans when it came to their ill-advised "Fire on Ice" marketing campaign. Apparently IwoCPO has been soliciting readers and such for more viable alternatives.
Mission accomplished.
Bargain Hunting
In a capped league one of the keys to success is garnering value for dollars spent. This recent Lowetide post on the 05/06 Oilers club inspired me to take a look at the current Flames roster with an eye to predicting the potential high value players for the upcoming season.
Matthew Lombardi:
Prior to all this RFA craziness instituted by a desperate man up north, Sutter managed to ink Lombo to a shiny, new 3 year deal worth an average of 1.87M per year. In light of some of the contracts handed out to Matthew's cohorts this summer (Penner - 4.3M, Parise - 3.125M, Scott Hartnell - 4.2M) the deal is a relative bargain. As such, the probability that Lombardi will deliver a high results to dollar ratio is a good one: given the current market, even if he treads water this season and duplicates his 06/07 performance (20G, 46 points), he will deliver "full value" for his cap number.
Should Lombardi take a step or two forward, he will considerably outperform his contract. And it's probably not unreasonable to expect a break-out season from the fourth year pro either: he's 25 and on the crest of his peak years. He's a season removed from breaking the 20 goal barrier and is poised to once and for all break into the Flames top-6 forwards, which is a relatively strong set of point producers. He's got experience and a decent supporting cast. He proved himself capable of skating with the big boys during his successful stint in the World Championships. All signs point to "yes", as the magic 8-ball would say.
Kristian Huselius:
His 1.4M/year deal is absurd. Mike Ribeiro makes more than that. So does Steve Rucchin, Chris Gratton and Brett McLean. At this price point, Keenan would have to bench Juice for the half the season to drain his contract of value.
Huselius is coming off a break-out season of his own (34 goals, 77 points). He and Langkow drove the results on the 2nd unit and they even excelled as the top dogs with Tanguay while Iginla was injured in January. If there hadn't been a rotating tie-rack of less than capable RWers on that 2nd line all year (Kobasew, Amonte, Moss), Huselius would likely have been at least a PPG player.
That's a mighty fine production/dollar rate, particularly considering the current market. Heading into 07/08, The "Keenan risk" remains as does the potential for Juice to regress back to the mean a little, but I wouldn't bet against another 60+ point campaign for the chinless magician. He's consistently put up good to great results on the PP since becoming a Flame, and Calgary should have a top 10 unit again next season if a couple of things go right.
Damond Langkow:
The 30 year old pivot has managed 50 or more points for 7 straight seasons, including the career-best numbers he put up last year (33G, 77P). His GF/GA +/- rate at ES was the best of any regular forward on the team (+1.49 G/60), resulting in an impressive +23 stat in 06/07 as well.
Langkow is the undisputed #1 center on the Flames depth chart. He has consistently put up good (or better) results, even on crappy teams: during his 3 years in the desert, Langs managed 68 goals, 166 points and a cumulative +42 rating in 243 GP for the Coyotes. So while his contract isn't in the bargain basement like Lombardi's and Juice's, comparatively he's a much smaller risk to produce just middling results next year. Another step in the same footprint would represent high value.
Dion Phaneuf:
This will be the last season of his rookie capped salary. Phaneuf has already delivered outstanding results relative to his pay-scale the last two seasons and hopefully the Flames will see more of the same (or better) this year. Dion has led the Flames d-corps in minutes played for two straight years, and has been amongst the best in other categories as well: PP production, goals (by defencemen), hits and blocked shots. He scored 99 points in his first 161 games, a PPG rate over and above many young forwards (0.614), let alone rearguards.
If Phaneuf can step into a top 4 role and consistently suppress scoring as well as he promotes it in 07/08, he will significantly galvanize the Flames back-end and further outperform his cap hit (0.785). There's no question he will again be Calgary's #1 PP option on the blueline and likely the ice-time leader thanks to his 4+ minutes of PP time a game. He'll therefore produce nice looking counting numbers again, which is all you can reasonably ask out of those kinds of dollars. Course, should he take a step forward and start excelling against tougher opponents at ES, Phaneuf will represent the best value on the team (and the league?).
Mark Giordano:
I've beat the drum for Giordano in this space for awhile now. I thought he was excellent during his limited time in Calgary last year. He's quick and has great offensive instincts. I love his first pass and ability to read and react to a play, especially off the rush. His shot isn't hard, but it's laser-beam accurate. He scored two goals in a game in his home town of Toronto last year, the second of which was a ballsy, cut-out-of-the-corner move that half the forward roster would be hard pressed to execute.
That said, he has the expected deficiencies of a young, inexperienced player: he battles with inconsistency at times and struggles against the tougher opponents. There's no question that Giordano should be sheltered from the big boys, but his (expected - he's yet to sign a new contract) low price point makes it hard to complain too loudly. He put up decent scoring rates at ES and the PP last season and did well against the lesser lights in his rookie campaign, despite frequently skating with poorer linemates (Zyuzin and an injured Warrener). Should he be granted a full-time roster spot and decent PP minutes, I expect Gio to outperform his contract pretty handily (assuming he's re-signed to something below 1M/year).
Miika Kiprusoff:
Top 3 goaltender in the league. Makes 3.33M/season.
David Moss:
Moss was a surprise to make the team last year and even then he managed to distinguish himself well enough to make Chuck Kobasew expendable. As a rookie, he scored at a rate that would have had him at 20 goals for the season had he played the full year. He proved adept at a lot of the "little things" around the rink, making him less of an ES risk than most rooks (doubtlessly owing to the fact that he's a late blooming 24 year old), which is probably the reason he was allowed to stick on the 2nd line with Huselius and Langkow, despite the fact he's not ideally top 6 material. He's decent in the corners in the offensive zone and in front of the net. Overall, he doesn't have an elite skillset, however, which is one of the reasons I expect him to be bumped down the depth chart in October. He isn't particularly fast or agile. His shot is mediocre. He's not going to beat most defenders one on one.
What he can do is chip in around the net and keep his nose clean otherwise. His cap hit is just about as small as it gets, too: $550,000. That means, even if he just manages to keep his head above water at ES, he will meet or exceed his contract value. Anything beyond that is gravy.
A couple of these guys are almost guaranteed to deliver top value for dollar (Langkow, Kipper, Phanuef) while a few of them have question marks (Lombardi, Huselius, Giordano). Should the stars align, the Flames will have a half dozen overachievers, resulting in a roster worth well more than it's 47M+ cap hit in terms of production, likely paving the way for a decent amount of success.
Naturally, The flip side is this will be the last season for the Franchise to take advantage of many of these underpaying deals. Kipper, Phanuef, Langkow and Huselius are all in line for fat raises in the summer of 08, and the team will no doubt lose at least two of those players due to budget constraints (Langkow and Huselius). Sutter has planted the seed for on-going competitiveness this off-season by locking up Regehr and Iginla long-term. However, to my eye this coming year looks to be the best chance for the Flames to be a genuine contender, considering all the latent value currently residing on the roster. Replacing the contributions of Langkow and Huselius while getting no better than market value production from Kirusoff (assuming Sutter get's his signature on an extension as well) and Phaneuf in 08/09 will represent a significant organizational challenge and will no doubt cripple Calgary's chances of contending for the Stanley Cup thereafter.
Matthew Lombardi:
Prior to all this RFA craziness instituted by a desperate man up north, Sutter managed to ink Lombo to a shiny, new 3 year deal worth an average of 1.87M per year. In light of some of the contracts handed out to Matthew's cohorts this summer (Penner - 4.3M, Parise - 3.125M, Scott Hartnell - 4.2M) the deal is a relative bargain. As such, the probability that Lombardi will deliver a high results to dollar ratio is a good one: given the current market, even if he treads water this season and duplicates his 06/07 performance (20G, 46 points), he will deliver "full value" for his cap number.
Should Lombardi take a step or two forward, he will considerably outperform his contract. And it's probably not unreasonable to expect a break-out season from the fourth year pro either: he's 25 and on the crest of his peak years. He's a season removed from breaking the 20 goal barrier and is poised to once and for all break into the Flames top-6 forwards, which is a relatively strong set of point producers. He's got experience and a decent supporting cast. He proved himself capable of skating with the big boys during his successful stint in the World Championships. All signs point to "yes", as the magic 8-ball would say.
Kristian Huselius:
His 1.4M/year deal is absurd. Mike Ribeiro makes more than that. So does Steve Rucchin, Chris Gratton and Brett McLean. At this price point, Keenan would have to bench Juice for the half the season to drain his contract of value.
Huselius is coming off a break-out season of his own (34 goals, 77 points). He and Langkow drove the results on the 2nd unit and they even excelled as the top dogs with Tanguay while Iginla was injured in January. If there hadn't been a rotating tie-rack of less than capable RWers on that 2nd line all year (Kobasew, Amonte, Moss), Huselius would likely have been at least a PPG player.
That's a mighty fine production/dollar rate, particularly considering the current market. Heading into 07/08, The "Keenan risk" remains as does the potential for Juice to regress back to the mean a little, but I wouldn't bet against another 60+ point campaign for the chinless magician. He's consistently put up good to great results on the PP since becoming a Flame, and Calgary should have a top 10 unit again next season if a couple of things go right.
Damond Langkow:
The 30 year old pivot has managed 50 or more points for 7 straight seasons, including the career-best numbers he put up last year (33G, 77P). His GF/GA +/- rate at ES was the best of any regular forward on the team (+1.49 G/60), resulting in an impressive +23 stat in 06/07 as well.
Langkow is the undisputed #1 center on the Flames depth chart. He has consistently put up good (or better) results, even on crappy teams: during his 3 years in the desert, Langs managed 68 goals, 166 points and a cumulative +42 rating in 243 GP for the Coyotes. So while his contract isn't in the bargain basement like Lombardi's and Juice's, comparatively he's a much smaller risk to produce just middling results next year. Another step in the same footprint would represent high value.
Dion Phaneuf:
This will be the last season of his rookie capped salary. Phaneuf has already delivered outstanding results relative to his pay-scale the last two seasons and hopefully the Flames will see more of the same (or better) this year. Dion has led the Flames d-corps in minutes played for two straight years, and has been amongst the best in other categories as well: PP production, goals (by defencemen), hits and blocked shots. He scored 99 points in his first 161 games, a PPG rate over and above many young forwards (0.614), let alone rearguards.
If Phaneuf can step into a top 4 role and consistently suppress scoring as well as he promotes it in 07/08, he will significantly galvanize the Flames back-end and further outperform his cap hit (0.785). There's no question he will again be Calgary's #1 PP option on the blueline and likely the ice-time leader thanks to his 4+ minutes of PP time a game. He'll therefore produce nice looking counting numbers again, which is all you can reasonably ask out of those kinds of dollars. Course, should he take a step forward and start excelling against tougher opponents at ES, Phaneuf will represent the best value on the team (and the league?).
Mark Giordano:
I've beat the drum for Giordano in this space for awhile now. I thought he was excellent during his limited time in Calgary last year. He's quick and has great offensive instincts. I love his first pass and ability to read and react to a play, especially off the rush. His shot isn't hard, but it's laser-beam accurate. He scored two goals in a game in his home town of Toronto last year, the second of which was a ballsy, cut-out-of-the-corner move that half the forward roster would be hard pressed to execute.
That said, he has the expected deficiencies of a young, inexperienced player: he battles with inconsistency at times and struggles against the tougher opponents. There's no question that Giordano should be sheltered from the big boys, but his (expected - he's yet to sign a new contract) low price point makes it hard to complain too loudly. He put up decent scoring rates at ES and the PP last season and did well against the lesser lights in his rookie campaign, despite frequently skating with poorer linemates (Zyuzin and an injured Warrener). Should he be granted a full-time roster spot and decent PP minutes, I expect Gio to outperform his contract pretty handily (assuming he's re-signed to something below 1M/year).
Miika Kiprusoff:
Top 3 goaltender in the league. Makes 3.33M/season.
David Moss:
Moss was a surprise to make the team last year and even then he managed to distinguish himself well enough to make Chuck Kobasew expendable. As a rookie, he scored at a rate that would have had him at 20 goals for the season had he played the full year. He proved adept at a lot of the "little things" around the rink, making him less of an ES risk than most rooks (doubtlessly owing to the fact that he's a late blooming 24 year old), which is probably the reason he was allowed to stick on the 2nd line with Huselius and Langkow, despite the fact he's not ideally top 6 material. He's decent in the corners in the offensive zone and in front of the net. Overall, he doesn't have an elite skillset, however, which is one of the reasons I expect him to be bumped down the depth chart in October. He isn't particularly fast or agile. His shot is mediocre. He's not going to beat most defenders one on one.
What he can do is chip in around the net and keep his nose clean otherwise. His cap hit is just about as small as it gets, too: $550,000. That means, even if he just manages to keep his head above water at ES, he will meet or exceed his contract value. Anything beyond that is gravy.
A couple of these guys are almost guaranteed to deliver top value for dollar (Langkow, Kipper, Phanuef) while a few of them have question marks (Lombardi, Huselius, Giordano). Should the stars align, the Flames will have a half dozen overachievers, resulting in a roster worth well more than it's 47M+ cap hit in terms of production, likely paving the way for a decent amount of success.
Naturally, The flip side is this will be the last season for the Franchise to take advantage of many of these underpaying deals. Kipper, Phanuef, Langkow and Huselius are all in line for fat raises in the summer of 08, and the team will no doubt lose at least two of those players due to budget constraints (Langkow and Huselius). Sutter has planted the seed for on-going competitiveness this off-season by locking up Regehr and Iginla long-term. However, to my eye this coming year looks to be the best chance for the Flames to be a genuine contender, considering all the latent value currently residing on the roster. Replacing the contributions of Langkow and Huselius while getting no better than market value production from Kirusoff (assuming Sutter get's his signature on an extension as well) and Phaneuf in 08/09 will represent a significant organizational challenge and will no doubt cripple Calgary's chances of contending for the Stanley Cup thereafter.
Thursday, August 02, 2007
Happy Dustin Penner Day!
It's now 12:30 with no word from Brian Burke. CHED in Edmonton is saying there is no matching offer from Anaheim and Dustin Penner is now an Edmonton Oiler.
The highest paid Edmonton Oiler at that.
For the second time this summer, I get to say "YAY!!" to a Kevin Lowe acquisition.
A Glance Back in Time
Five years ago, prior to Darryl Sutter taking the organizational reins, the Flames roster looked something like this:
Gelinas - Conroy - Iginla
Lowry - Drury - Clark
Saprykin - Yelle - Donovan
Begin - Nichol - Sloan
(Berube, Kobasew)
Regehr - Leopold
Lydman - Gauthier
Ference - Boughner
(Montador, Buzek)
Turek
McLennan
(Sabourin)
That year, the Flames somehow managed to have four 20+ goals scorers: Iginla (35), Conroy (22), Drury (23) and Gelinas (21). Only Iginla broke the 60 point barrier (67).
Toni Lydman led the defense in scoring with 6 goals and 26 points. A young Robyn Regehr and rookie Jordan Leopold were just starting to form a decent top pairing duo on the back-end, but weren't quite ready for prime time. Chuck Kobasew was a rookie who saw action in 23 contests: mainly because the roster was so desperate for some kind of scoring ability. The goaltending was just alright, and not good enough to hold together such a patch-work line-up. As you can plainly see, there was little depth and a lot of "role players" and flat-out prayers.
That club managed 75 points during the regular season and missed the play-offs by a touch down or so. They had a -42 GD and terrible special teams.
Of course, Sutter went about remaking the team in 03/04, acquiring Kipper, Nieminen, Nilson, Simon, McAmmond, Reinprecht and Warrener and dropping some dead weight (he'd also added Ference and Donovan during his brief stint in the org the year before if memory serves). The rest is history. Granted, that team couldn't seem to score either, but the firming up of the roster was a step in the right direction.
With exclusion of the odd miscalculation here and there (Rhino and Sauve for Boucher and Leclerc, Amonte/Friesen signings, Lydman for 3rd rounder, the Playfair thing) the Franchise has been in an upward swing ever since. And now, 5 seasons later, as the Oilers prepare to welcome their newest overpriced, ill-advised addition, I can't help but sit back and think 'Thank God for Sutter".
Gelinas - Conroy - Iginla
Lowry - Drury - Clark
Saprykin - Yelle - Donovan
Begin - Nichol - Sloan
(Berube, Kobasew)
Regehr - Leopold
Lydman - Gauthier
Ference - Boughner
(Montador, Buzek)
Turek
McLennan
(Sabourin)
That year, the Flames somehow managed to have four 20+ goals scorers: Iginla (35), Conroy (22), Drury (23) and Gelinas (21). Only Iginla broke the 60 point barrier (67).
Toni Lydman led the defense in scoring with 6 goals and 26 points. A young Robyn Regehr and rookie Jordan Leopold were just starting to form a decent top pairing duo on the back-end, but weren't quite ready for prime time. Chuck Kobasew was a rookie who saw action in 23 contests: mainly because the roster was so desperate for some kind of scoring ability. The goaltending was just alright, and not good enough to hold together such a patch-work line-up. As you can plainly see, there was little depth and a lot of "role players" and flat-out prayers.
That club managed 75 points during the regular season and missed the play-offs by a touch down or so. They had a -42 GD and terrible special teams.
Of course, Sutter went about remaking the team in 03/04, acquiring Kipper, Nieminen, Nilson, Simon, McAmmond, Reinprecht and Warrener and dropping some dead weight (he'd also added Ference and Donovan during his brief stint in the org the year before if memory serves). The rest is history. Granted, that team couldn't seem to score either, but the firming up of the roster was a step in the right direction.
With exclusion of the odd miscalculation here and there (Rhino and Sauve for Boucher and Leclerc, Amonte/Friesen signings, Lydman for 3rd rounder, the Playfair thing) the Franchise has been in an upward swing ever since. And now, 5 seasons later, as the Oilers prepare to welcome their newest overpriced, ill-advised addition, I can't help but sit back and think 'Thank God for Sutter".
Tuesday, July 31, 2007
By the way...
...While Soundwave is on vacation, I've been given the (temporary) responsibility of updating nhlnumbers.com. I'm eager, but fairly clueless, so please bear with me if the site isn't updated as rapidly as usual.
But...But...But...I was the Unrestricted One!
I bet you Dainius Zubrus is probably wondering how it came to be that Dustin Penner will be making more than him for the next 5 years...
Edited to clean up my sentence structure and to include my half-assed pictorial accompaniment.
Monday, July 30, 2007
Counting Question Marks
As any GM would tell you, the fewer question marks you have on the roster, the better. When building a team you want to assuage risk of failure by compounding as few "big ifs" as possible. For example, take a look at the Phoenix Coyotes and count all the IFs that team will need to go well in order to make the play-offs.
In a way, it's like playing the lottery: hitting one or two numbers is more probable than hitting all six.
Of course, no roster is perfect. Every line-up has it's share of uncertainty. Is the hot-shot rookie going to experience a sophomore slump? How many games will the injury prone Slovak miss? Will the reclamation veteran turn out to be Jeff Friesen or Dan Cleary? Can Rhett Warrener actually play defense any more?
With that in mind, I've compiled a list of the Flames big 'IFs' (in order from biggest to smallest) leading into next season with the hope of perhaps partially illuminating the club's chances of success (or risk of failure).
IF Adrian Aucoin is still a legit top 4 defender...
Aucoin was a horse during his time on the Island. He literally led the league in icetime for awhile. If that was the Adrian Aucoin the Flames were getting, he wouldn't be on this list.
But there's a reason Aucoin was had for the Andrei Zyuzin (probably the worst player on the back-end for Calgary last year): he was terrible in Chicago. Aucoin basically stepped into an elevator shaft as soon as he put on the Blackhawk jersey and cashed his big salary. He played in NY for 3 years, averaging 78 games, 38 points a season and a cumulative +/- rating of +47. And it's not like the Islanders were juggernauts back then either. As a Blackhawk, though, Aucoin never lived up to expectations. He was hurt for most of the 05/06 season, playing just 33 games and managing 6 points and a -13 rating.
And he was somehow worse last year. According to Desjardins, Aucoin was behind the likes of Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook in terms of facing quality opposition in 06/07. In fact, he saw some of the easiest competiton on the club and still struggled to be effective: in 774 ES minutes, he was 19 ticks to the red. He was the worst defenseman on the team in terms of GA/60 (3.56). Hell, even Cullimore did better than that, and he was recently accepted by the Canadiens as a consequence of the Samsonov salary dump (accepted and bought out, may I add).
Now, clearly there's some contextual effects here. The Blackhawks are a pretty bad team and Aucoin was battling knee issues throughout his Windy City tenure. However, it's really hard to ignore the fact that the Flames are banking on a guy who has SUCKED TOTAL ASS the last 2 seasons to adequately fill a top 4 roll on the team. I guess the Aucoin thing wouldn't be such a big gamble had he been carrying the mail at some point during his time in Chicago. But that never happened. I guess the good news for Flames fans is: he's done it before. With flying colors. The bad news is, he hasn't done it recently.
Im not sure betting on a sudden return to form, even when surrounded by a superior squad, is a good one. Aucoin has claimed in interviews his injuries are past him, but one can't rightly imagine a hockey player being totally honest with the new teams press on such a matter: "My knee? Still hurts like hell. I'll be lucky if I can hit 50 games this year. But, yeah, I hope I can contribute positively, blah blah blah..."
IF Owen Nolan has some gas in the tank...
Sutter has liked Nolan since coaching him in San Jose. He tried to get him at the deadline last February, but Nolan asked the Coyotes Franchise not to be traded due to some family issues.
The danger here might be the clouding of what Nolan is with what he used to be. The former #1 draft pick has twice scored 40+ goals, and 7 times topped the 20 goal mark. However, age and injuries have slowed Nolan considerably over the years. He took the lock-out and the entire 05/06 season off to rest his ailing knees. The 76 games he played last year represented the most he'd managed in a single season since 2000.
As a result, Nolan hasn't been an offensive force for nearly a decade. His last 40 goal year was in that same 99/00 season, when he played 78 contests. Since then, his totals have steadily declined: 24 goals, 23 goals, 22, 7 (in just 14 games), 19 and 16 from 01 to 07, respectively.
It's somewhat difficult to project Nolan's effectiveness based on his season with the Coyotes, however. He was their 2nd leading scorer, even though his point total was nothing to write home about. (16 goals, 40 points). His -2 isn't too bad considering the quality of competition he faced and the gawd awful squad surrounding him. His production rates were pretty pedestrian (1.81 ESP/60 and 3.58 PPP/60), but, again, we're talking about the Coyotes here.
He had what I'd call a "respectable" season in the desert. He wasn't a huge difference maker, but he wasn't a reason the team was losing either. Which is encouraging to a degree because that's about all the Flames will need from him on the 2nd line this season. Not to do the heavy lifting (guys like Juice and Langkow will do that) but not to become a leaden anchor either (*cough* Tony Amonte *cough*). This is assuming, of course, that Nolan plays a majority of the season, which is still in question given his injury-riddled history.
If Nolan succumbs to age and either doesn't play much or well, the Flames will have a big gaping hole on the right side of their roster (again). Conversely, if he can replicate his performance from last year, the Flames will be a leg up on what they had there last year (Kobasew/Amonte/Moss).
IF Lombardi can become a legit top 6 forward...
I like the Flames organizational depth at center. After Langkow, Lombo, Yelle, Conroy and Primeau, Calgary has promising young guys like Taratukhin, Boyd and Ryder waiting in the wings.
The problem is, most of the kids are a few years away from contributing in the bigs and the team needs a top 2 centerman NOW. Yelle, Conroy and Primeau just can't cut it in an offensive role. Langkow is a very capable two-way guy who's always good for 60 or so points.
That leaves Lombardi to fill the gap. He took some steps last year and looked to be blossoming into a legitimate threat until he faltered down the stretch. Part of that had to do with the manner in which he was employed after Conroy was acquired, but it's not like he gave Playfair much reason to promote him into the top 6 in March or April either.
That said, Lombardi did certainly look like a player during certain segments of the season. And he ripped it up at the World Championships. Myself, I'm convinced Lombo is a capable top 6 player and will flourish given the right circumstances.
Perhaps the biggest X factor here is how the Keenan/Lombardi dynamic unfolds: an early season slump and new-asshole tearing might just sink the affable young man's season.
IF huselius can kick ass again...
Had Keenan not been hired, I wouldn't have even brought this up. Juice's big season might look like an outlier, but anyone who watched him play last year knows he was often driving the results, rather than being a passenger or simply party to favorable circumstances. He produced at a 60+ point pace his first season in Flames colors, and that was on a team that simply couldn't score at ES. He's been money on the PP the past two years, both times pacing the flames in terms of PPP/60 rates. he played some decent competition (not best, not worst) at ES last year and pretty much destroyed, even though he's more of a PP kinda guy.
With apologies to Langkow, I think Juice drives the bus on the 2nd line, offensively speaking. Calgary has two difference makers at ES on the first line (Iginla and Tanguay), but a productive Huselius in the top 6 gives the Flames a vital two-pronged attack (and more dangerous PP).
The question becomes whether Huselius can be that guy again now that Keenan's in town. I expect a slight regression in terms of points for Juice this year (his shooting percentage of 19.7% was pretty high. If he falls back down to, say, his prior best of 14%, you can expect 10 less goals from him) simply because that's usually what happens when you best your prior career high by 30+ points. Something in the 10 point range wouldn't be too harmful to the team, particularly if guys like Nolan and Lombo step up (uh-oh...a confluence of IFs).
There is, obviously, the possibility that Keenan and Huselius won't get along again and the latter will get thrown under the bus, resulting in a plummet back down to his pre-Calgary numbers. That would be bad news for his hockey team, because they really don't have anyone behind Juice that can play minutes at ES and on the PP and produce at all. There isn't even a farm hand with promising enough numbers to project into that role.
Expect Juice to be a trade deadline casualty should the unthinkable happen. He's entering the last year of his contract anyways, so if he and Keenan simply can't play nice, he'll have to be shipped for someone who can get the job done on the 2nd line under iron Mike. I think we lose Huselius one way or the other by the end of next year (which is a shame because Im a big fan), but it would be quite beneficial if he could outperform his small contract for just one more season.
IF the bottom 6 can perform...
last year, the Flames bottom 6 forwards stunk. A third line should usually be one of 2 things: a shut-down line or a trio of soft Comp eaters (see: Anaheim OR Buffalo). The Flames had neither. The bottom six was littered with dead weight (Friesen, McCarty, Amonte, Lundmark) and underperformers (Yelle, Nilson) resulting in two de facto 4th lines. The highly exploitable bottom half of the roster is part of the reason the Flames were so bad on the road: Friesen et al. just couldn't keep up when they had to face the big guns.
This year, the Flames need a competent compliment of supporting players. Yelle and Conroy have been considered for the Selke in the past, so there's hope. Nilson, who is a decent checking forward at 100%, has supposedly fully recovered from his injury woes. Moss and Primeau should be able to at least come out even against other 4 liners, if not better. To my eye, the bottom 6 looks much improved over last season. The lynch-pin may be Yelle's play and where Conroy lands in the line-up: if Conny gets the automatic "play with Jarome card" (leaving Lombo swimming around uselessly on the 3rd line) or if Yelle fails to regain his defensive form, Calgary will likely struggle to keep the opposition's scorers in check away from the Dome again.
I've stated before I think this is a better team than last year. A lot of my punching bags have moved on (Amonte, Friesen, Ference) and I like some of the additions (Tanguay, Sarich) and the development of the key pieces (Iginla, Lombardi, Regehr, Phaneuf). But, as you can see, the roster isn't without its coin flips. If a couple (particularly the BIG ones like Aucoin and Nolan) land on heads, the team will roll along fine. On the other hand, should Sutter come up snake eyes on most of his big gambles, it's unlikely the Flames will experience any large measure of success.
In a way, it's like playing the lottery: hitting one or two numbers is more probable than hitting all six.
Of course, no roster is perfect. Every line-up has it's share of uncertainty. Is the hot-shot rookie going to experience a sophomore slump? How many games will the injury prone Slovak miss? Will the reclamation veteran turn out to be Jeff Friesen or Dan Cleary? Can Rhett Warrener actually play defense any more?
With that in mind, I've compiled a list of the Flames big 'IFs' (in order from biggest to smallest) leading into next season with the hope of perhaps partially illuminating the club's chances of success (or risk of failure).
IF Adrian Aucoin is still a legit top 4 defender...
Aucoin was a horse during his time on the Island. He literally led the league in icetime for awhile. If that was the Adrian Aucoin the Flames were getting, he wouldn't be on this list.
But there's a reason Aucoin was had for the Andrei Zyuzin (probably the worst player on the back-end for Calgary last year): he was terrible in Chicago. Aucoin basically stepped into an elevator shaft as soon as he put on the Blackhawk jersey and cashed his big salary. He played in NY for 3 years, averaging 78 games, 38 points a season and a cumulative +/- rating of +47. And it's not like the Islanders were juggernauts back then either. As a Blackhawk, though, Aucoin never lived up to expectations. He was hurt for most of the 05/06 season, playing just 33 games and managing 6 points and a -13 rating.
And he was somehow worse last year. According to Desjardins, Aucoin was behind the likes of Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook in terms of facing quality opposition in 06/07. In fact, he saw some of the easiest competiton on the club and still struggled to be effective: in 774 ES minutes, he was 19 ticks to the red. He was the worst defenseman on the team in terms of GA/60 (3.56). Hell, even Cullimore did better than that, and he was recently accepted by the Canadiens as a consequence of the Samsonov salary dump (accepted and bought out, may I add).
Now, clearly there's some contextual effects here. The Blackhawks are a pretty bad team and Aucoin was battling knee issues throughout his Windy City tenure. However, it's really hard to ignore the fact that the Flames are banking on a guy who has SUCKED TOTAL ASS the last 2 seasons to adequately fill a top 4 roll on the team. I guess the Aucoin thing wouldn't be such a big gamble had he been carrying the mail at some point during his time in Chicago. But that never happened. I guess the good news for Flames fans is: he's done it before. With flying colors. The bad news is, he hasn't done it recently.
Im not sure betting on a sudden return to form, even when surrounded by a superior squad, is a good one. Aucoin has claimed in interviews his injuries are past him, but one can't rightly imagine a hockey player being totally honest with the new teams press on such a matter: "My knee? Still hurts like hell. I'll be lucky if I can hit 50 games this year. But, yeah, I hope I can contribute positively, blah blah blah..."
IF Owen Nolan has some gas in the tank...
Sutter has liked Nolan since coaching him in San Jose. He tried to get him at the deadline last February, but Nolan asked the Coyotes Franchise not to be traded due to some family issues.
The danger here might be the clouding of what Nolan is with what he used to be. The former #1 draft pick has twice scored 40+ goals, and 7 times topped the 20 goal mark. However, age and injuries have slowed Nolan considerably over the years. He took the lock-out and the entire 05/06 season off to rest his ailing knees. The 76 games he played last year represented the most he'd managed in a single season since 2000.
As a result, Nolan hasn't been an offensive force for nearly a decade. His last 40 goal year was in that same 99/00 season, when he played 78 contests. Since then, his totals have steadily declined: 24 goals, 23 goals, 22, 7 (in just 14 games), 19 and 16 from 01 to 07, respectively.
It's somewhat difficult to project Nolan's effectiveness based on his season with the Coyotes, however. He was their 2nd leading scorer, even though his point total was nothing to write home about. (16 goals, 40 points). His -2 isn't too bad considering the quality of competition he faced and the gawd awful squad surrounding him. His production rates were pretty pedestrian (1.81 ESP/60 and 3.58 PPP/60), but, again, we're talking about the Coyotes here.
He had what I'd call a "respectable" season in the desert. He wasn't a huge difference maker, but he wasn't a reason the team was losing either. Which is encouraging to a degree because that's about all the Flames will need from him on the 2nd line this season. Not to do the heavy lifting (guys like Juice and Langkow will do that) but not to become a leaden anchor either (*cough* Tony Amonte *cough*). This is assuming, of course, that Nolan plays a majority of the season, which is still in question given his injury-riddled history.
If Nolan succumbs to age and either doesn't play much or well, the Flames will have a big gaping hole on the right side of their roster (again). Conversely, if he can replicate his performance from last year, the Flames will be a leg up on what they had there last year (Kobasew/Amonte/Moss).
IF Lombardi can become a legit top 6 forward...
I like the Flames organizational depth at center. After Langkow, Lombo, Yelle, Conroy and Primeau, Calgary has promising young guys like Taratukhin, Boyd and Ryder waiting in the wings.
The problem is, most of the kids are a few years away from contributing in the bigs and the team needs a top 2 centerman NOW. Yelle, Conroy and Primeau just can't cut it in an offensive role. Langkow is a very capable two-way guy who's always good for 60 or so points.
That leaves Lombardi to fill the gap. He took some steps last year and looked to be blossoming into a legitimate threat until he faltered down the stretch. Part of that had to do with the manner in which he was employed after Conroy was acquired, but it's not like he gave Playfair much reason to promote him into the top 6 in March or April either.
That said, Lombardi did certainly look like a player during certain segments of the season. And he ripped it up at the World Championships. Myself, I'm convinced Lombo is a capable top 6 player and will flourish given the right circumstances.
Perhaps the biggest X factor here is how the Keenan/Lombardi dynamic unfolds: an early season slump and new-asshole tearing might just sink the affable young man's season.
IF huselius can kick ass again...
Had Keenan not been hired, I wouldn't have even brought this up. Juice's big season might look like an outlier, but anyone who watched him play last year knows he was often driving the results, rather than being a passenger or simply party to favorable circumstances. He produced at a 60+ point pace his first season in Flames colors, and that was on a team that simply couldn't score at ES. He's been money on the PP the past two years, both times pacing the flames in terms of PPP/60 rates. he played some decent competition (not best, not worst) at ES last year and pretty much destroyed, even though he's more of a PP kinda guy.
With apologies to Langkow, I think Juice drives the bus on the 2nd line, offensively speaking. Calgary has two difference makers at ES on the first line (Iginla and Tanguay), but a productive Huselius in the top 6 gives the Flames a vital two-pronged attack (and more dangerous PP).
The question becomes whether Huselius can be that guy again now that Keenan's in town. I expect a slight regression in terms of points for Juice this year (his shooting percentage of 19.7% was pretty high. If he falls back down to, say, his prior best of 14%, you can expect 10 less goals from him) simply because that's usually what happens when you best your prior career high by 30+ points. Something in the 10 point range wouldn't be too harmful to the team, particularly if guys like Nolan and Lombo step up (uh-oh...a confluence of IFs).
There is, obviously, the possibility that Keenan and Huselius won't get along again and the latter will get thrown under the bus, resulting in a plummet back down to his pre-Calgary numbers. That would be bad news for his hockey team, because they really don't have anyone behind Juice that can play minutes at ES and on the PP and produce at all. There isn't even a farm hand with promising enough numbers to project into that role.
Expect Juice to be a trade deadline casualty should the unthinkable happen. He's entering the last year of his contract anyways, so if he and Keenan simply can't play nice, he'll have to be shipped for someone who can get the job done on the 2nd line under iron Mike. I think we lose Huselius one way or the other by the end of next year (which is a shame because Im a big fan), but it would be quite beneficial if he could outperform his small contract for just one more season.
IF the bottom 6 can perform...
last year, the Flames bottom 6 forwards stunk. A third line should usually be one of 2 things: a shut-down line or a trio of soft Comp eaters (see: Anaheim OR Buffalo). The Flames had neither. The bottom six was littered with dead weight (Friesen, McCarty, Amonte, Lundmark) and underperformers (Yelle, Nilson) resulting in two de facto 4th lines. The highly exploitable bottom half of the roster is part of the reason the Flames were so bad on the road: Friesen et al. just couldn't keep up when they had to face the big guns.
This year, the Flames need a competent compliment of supporting players. Yelle and Conroy have been considered for the Selke in the past, so there's hope. Nilson, who is a decent checking forward at 100%, has supposedly fully recovered from his injury woes. Moss and Primeau should be able to at least come out even against other 4 liners, if not better. To my eye, the bottom 6 looks much improved over last season. The lynch-pin may be Yelle's play and where Conroy lands in the line-up: if Conny gets the automatic "play with Jarome card" (leaving Lombo swimming around uselessly on the 3rd line) or if Yelle fails to regain his defensive form, Calgary will likely struggle to keep the opposition's scorers in check away from the Dome again.
I've stated before I think this is a better team than last year. A lot of my punching bags have moved on (Amonte, Friesen, Ference) and I like some of the additions (Tanguay, Sarich) and the development of the key pieces (Iginla, Lombardi, Regehr, Phaneuf). But, as you can see, the roster isn't without its coin flips. If a couple (particularly the BIG ones like Aucoin and Nolan) land on heads, the team will roll along fine. On the other hand, should Sutter come up snake eyes on most of his big gambles, it's unlikely the Flames will experience any large measure of success.
Saturday, July 28, 2007
I Don't Get it.
Apparently feeling jealous over all the attention Kevin Lowe is receiving lately, Bob Gainey has offered much maligned (and really ineffective) veteran Patrice Brisebois a contract for next season.
That's right, Patrice Brisebois. The guy who was basically run out of Montreal in the first place (and a player who most Avs fans are thanking the heavens is now off their roster and payroll).
Brisebois is 36 now and very much on the downslope of his career. Last season he was a sheltered, bottom-pairing defender for the Avs and was still in the red at ES. That is, before he was forced to sit out the rest of the season due to back surgery. A lot of people just figured Brisebois would retire this year.
And he still might. To Gainey's credit, the contract is a relatively small one ($700,000 for one year), not a lot of monetary incentive to a millionaire. And I can't fathom why Patrice want to play there again - it basically rained boos in Montreal whenever he touched the puck.
I still can't decipher Gainey's thinking on this move, however. Brisebois isn't going to help the Canadiens win, whatever his price. He can't even cut it on the bottom-pairing anymore. Might as well promote a rookie or sign, say, David tanabe for a touch more money. It's not like Montreal is pressed up against the cap or anything.
Hmm. Clearly Gainey didn't watch Tony Amonte struggle his way through the season with the Flames last year...
That's right, Patrice Brisebois. The guy who was basically run out of Montreal in the first place (and a player who most Avs fans are thanking the heavens is now off their roster and payroll).
Brisebois is 36 now and very much on the downslope of his career. Last season he was a sheltered, bottom-pairing defender for the Avs and was still in the red at ES. That is, before he was forced to sit out the rest of the season due to back surgery. A lot of people just figured Brisebois would retire this year.
And he still might. To Gainey's credit, the contract is a relatively small one ($700,000 for one year), not a lot of monetary incentive to a millionaire. And I can't fathom why Patrice want to play there again - it basically rained boos in Montreal whenever he touched the puck.
I still can't decipher Gainey's thinking on this move, however. Brisebois isn't going to help the Canadiens win, whatever his price. He can't even cut it on the bottom-pairing anymore. Might as well promote a rookie or sign, say, David tanabe for a touch more money. It's not like Montreal is pressed up against the cap or anything.
Hmm. Clearly Gainey didn't watch Tony Amonte struggle his way through the season with the Flames last year...
Friday, July 27, 2007
From Prince to Pauper
This is Robin Williams in Danny DeVito's unheralded comedy "Death to Smoochy".In the film, Williams plays "Rainbow Randolph", a pitiable child's show host who experiences a fall from grace due to a series of comical errors.
Here's a brief plot synopsis for those of who haven't seen the movie:
At the onset of the picture, Randolph is the undisputed king of children's entertainment. His is the top rated show of it's kind and Randolph is considered the genius of the industry. That is, until he is caught accepting bribes in an undercover sting operation. Randolph is subsequently fired and humiliated, resulting in a dizzying spiral of degredation that includes various, ill-advised, anger-filled, hair-brained schemes designed to de-throne the usurper of his lost position (Edward Norton's "Smoochy").
In the wake of the Penner offer sheet, the parallels between Lowe and Randolph seem uncanny. Not just the "fall from grace" part, or the desperate, ill-fated attempts to regain lost glory. But also the sheer, vehement hatred their antics have inspired in others.
There's a particular scene from the film that's been playing over and over in my head since yesterday. In it, Randolph is being led to a police car and swarmed by the parasitic media after one of his venomous character attacks on Smoochy has been uncovered. In the middle of the scrum, one reporter manages to deliver this jab: "How does it feel to be the most hated man in America?"
(To which, Williams quickly replies in one of the film's outtakes, "Im sure OJ still has a slight lead!")
How 'bout it Kevin? how does it feel to be the most hated man in the NHL?
I have to be clear, Im not talking from a purely GM/NHL managment perspective here (though Im certain Lowe doesn't have many friends besides Gretzky and Sather left in the NHL's upper offices).
Lowe has managed to convert many of his most ardent followers into his most outspoken critics in a very short period of time. Less than 24 months ago he would have been afforded a hero's welcome by the whole of the "Oilogospehre" and general Oilers fanship. Now, Im guessing the likes of Tyler (Mudcrutch), Lowetide, Kyle, and Chris! and co. from Covered in Oil would have to seriously question whether to brake or not if they see Kevin crossing the road.
Not that they're without justification. The Edmonton team that went to the Stanley Cup finals in 2006 has been clumsily dismantled and destroyed through an accumulation of blunders. Let's review:
- The trading of Pronger for magic beans
- The signing of support players to inflated contracts (Horcoff, Pisani, etc.)
- The unwillingness or inability to fill Prongers void on the blueline.
- The unwilllingness to re-up local hero and best forward on the team, Ryan Smyth.
- The inability to turn an embarrassment of riches at the draft into immediate help.
- The failed Nylander signing at Ryan Smyth's price point.
- The signing of Souray to a long, expensive contract.
- The Vanek and Penner offer-sheets. The first was doomed to fail and the second may well be doomed to succeed.
Lowe now has a bottom-feeder team on his hands, one that offers little to no incentive for UFA's to sign there (aside from overpayment). The desperate gambit to pry a 45 point RFA out of Anaheim, at the expense of 3 draft picks and more than $4M/season, looks to be the last straw for many Oiler fans. There are a few blindly loyal Lowe supporters clamouring to spin this move as potentially positive, but to many others (and to most outsiders) this completely reeks of panic and desperation.
Penner is big body, sure, and he scored an impressive 29 goals in his first full season. He also played under very favorable circumstances last year: excellent team, good linemates and soft opposition. And yet his head wasn't above water at ES. His counting numbers are, perhaps, encouraging, but so were Lupul's before he became an Oiler. Further, as almost any attentive hockey fan can attest, one decent season a star does not make. Does anyone remember that Joe Juneau scored 102 points in his rookie year?
Penner is a gamble. A big gamble. He's got a single, merely decent year on a good team under his belt. He doesn't have a Vanek-like ceiling, clearly. At best, I'd suggest he's a competent Soft Comp Eater at ES, and that's on a good team that has the depth to shelter him.
Edmonton is not a good team. They aren't good without him and they aren't much better with him.
Sure, Penner has an impressive physical frame (which is often cited by the few apologists I've observed around the web), but so does Wayne Primeau. A big body is neither necessary nor sufficient to succeed in the NHL. Forty-five points and a -2 rating from a 245 pounder is no more valuable than 45 points and a -2 rating from an 180 pounder. Matthew Lombardi, who is roughly the same age as Penner, scored 20 goals and 46 points and was +10 last year on a lesser team. He also likely faced competition that was at least equal, if not tougher, than Penner did. Would those few fans defending the offer-sheet as savvy feel the same way if Lowe were pursuing Lombo? Does $21M and the first 3 draft picks in 2008 for Matthew Lombardi sound ridiculous? And so it should.
It's a terrible and expensive gamble. It doesn't measurably improve the team and it costs a bundle in terms of real dollars, cap space and future assets. Penner has yet to prove that he can be a difference maker at the NHL level. He doesn't have the history or the pedigree that suggests he could ever live up to the price the Oilers are apparently willing to pay for him (and just about everyone, it seems, besides Ryan Smyth).
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Regardless of Burke's prior claims that he'd match any offer tendered to Penner, one has to think Brian's going to accept the cap space and futures and run with them. It just makes too much sense. He has guys like Todd Bertuzzi and youngster Bobby Ryan to fill Penner's absence. He'd also have issues shoehorning Penner's new 1000% raise into his cap budget, especially if Niedermayer doesn't retire. And he hasn't signed Selanne (or a Selanne replacement) yet. By not matching the offer, he loses 40-50 points of 2nd line production, but gains valuable breathing space and 3 swings of the bat in a deep draft next year. The Ducks have maturing youngsters in Perry, Getzlaf and Ryan. I can't see how losing Penner could possibly represent a grevious blow to their roster.
No, I don't think Burke is going to bail Lowe out of this one. And when Penner is struggling to a 40 point, -15 season at the $4.3M price point, I honestly wonder if Lowe will be given the opportunity to fix yet another misstep.
I doubt it.
Thursday, July 26, 2007
Lowe at it Again...?
There's some tentative reports that the Oilers have offered RFA Dustin Penner a $21M/5 year deal. If this gambit should prove successful, Edmonton will have to forfeit their 1st, 2nd and 3rd round picks in 2008.
Were I Brian Burke, I'd take the draft picks and run. Penner is a nice player, but I'm not sure he's worth the money the Oilers are offering. not to mention those are going to be some decently placed picks in a strong draft year.
As for the Oilers, well, Penner would certainly improve the team, but not to any large degree. $4M and 3 quality picks is a high price to pay for that kind of player. I still think they'd be better served pursuing effective yet unwanted guys like Mike Johnson that could be had for relatively cheap, but what do I know?
Update - TSN running the story now.
Reactions -
Covered in Oil
Battle of California, which includes this clever little doozy from Sleek:
I dunno--this kind of reminds me of Joffrey Lupul: Brian Burke gets easy-minute production from an underpaid player, then allows Kevin Lowe to turn an underpaid Duck into an overpaid Oiler?
and Mudcrutch's response:
I've closed the door to my office and started to drink.
Mike Chen deduces that:
Kevin Lowe is a mole planted by the NHLPA to artificially drive up costs.
Lowetide:
As bad as it felt to lose the SCF, or endure Pronger being dealt, or even to watch Ryan Smyth crying at the airport, this takes the cake. Kevin Lowe has mortgaged the future in his search for mediocrity.
If you love average, you'll love the Oilers.
Were I Brian Burke, I'd take the draft picks and run. Penner is a nice player, but I'm not sure he's worth the money the Oilers are offering. not to mention those are going to be some decently placed picks in a strong draft year.
As for the Oilers, well, Penner would certainly improve the team, but not to any large degree. $4M and 3 quality picks is a high price to pay for that kind of player. I still think they'd be better served pursuing effective yet unwanted guys like Mike Johnson that could be had for relatively cheap, but what do I know?
Update - TSN running the story now.
Reactions -
Covered in Oil
Battle of California, which includes this clever little doozy from Sleek:
I dunno--this kind of reminds me of Joffrey Lupul: Brian Burke gets easy-minute production from an underpaid player, then allows Kevin Lowe to turn an underpaid Duck into an overpaid Oiler?
and Mudcrutch's response:
I've closed the door to my office and started to drink.
Mike Chen deduces that:
Kevin Lowe is a mole planted by the NHLPA to artificially drive up costs.
Lowetide:
As bad as it felt to lose the SCF, or endure Pronger being dealt, or even to watch Ryan Smyth crying at the airport, this takes the cake. Kevin Lowe has mortgaged the future in his search for mediocrity.
If you love average, you'll love the Oilers.
Of What Remains
If you peruse the names remaining on the UFA list, there aren't a lot of surprises. Guys like Niinimaa, Ozonlinsh, Brisebois, Belfour and yes, Tony Amonte, have probably worn out their welcome in the NHL.
There is the odd headscratcher here and there, however. Danny Markov was a pretty effective player for the Detroit Red Wings last year. David Tanabe is never going to win a Norris trophy, sure, but he's relatively young, cheap and is a better option than most rookies. While the fact that Linden the old and Lindros the injured remain unemployed isn't overly strange, I find it hard to believe that no one has stepped up to take a chance on the likes of Mike Johnson, Martin Gelinas or even Peter Forsberg (as big a question mark as he is). Gelinas and Johnson are cheap veterans that can provide checking and the odd goal against decent competition. Johnson was a guy I thought the Flames might pursue to fill a gap on the right side, but pretty much any team could probably use him (particularly our rivals to the North).
Overall, I think I consider Markov the biggest surprise. He played some tough competition for the Wings last season and the team's goals for (50) and goals against (27) with him on the ice were fantastic. The resultant on +/-/60 rate for Markov was a very decent 1.42 (positive 1.42 goals for every 60 minutes played) with the obvious caveat that he played on a very strong club in a very weak division. He had a rough play-offs (18 GP, 0-0-0, -2) which may explain the Red Wings reluctance to bring him back, but one has to think with the dearth of quality defenders out there that some middle tier or bottom feeder team would take a run at him. Clubs like Phoenix, Edmonton, Pittsburgh and Washington could use someone of Markov's caliber to solidify their top 4.
I guess I don't know anything for certain. Perhaps Markov has fielded offers from half the teams in the NHL and is just waiting for a big, Souray-like pay-day. Or perhaps he has his sights set on playing for one particular Franchise, like Brad Stuart, and is still trying to hammer out a favorable deal with them. Or maybe someone back in Mother Russia is calling him.
While those are possiblities, it seems on the face of things that Markov was swept aside during the initial UFA feeding frenzy and has been left to drift with the tide.
There is the odd headscratcher here and there, however. Danny Markov was a pretty effective player for the Detroit Red Wings last year. David Tanabe is never going to win a Norris trophy, sure, but he's relatively young, cheap and is a better option than most rookies. While the fact that Linden the old and Lindros the injured remain unemployed isn't overly strange, I find it hard to believe that no one has stepped up to take a chance on the likes of Mike Johnson, Martin Gelinas or even Peter Forsberg (as big a question mark as he is). Gelinas and Johnson are cheap veterans that can provide checking and the odd goal against decent competition. Johnson was a guy I thought the Flames might pursue to fill a gap on the right side, but pretty much any team could probably use him (particularly our rivals to the North).
Overall, I think I consider Markov the biggest surprise. He played some tough competition for the Wings last season and the team's goals for (50) and goals against (27) with him on the ice were fantastic. The resultant on +/-/60 rate for Markov was a very decent 1.42 (positive 1.42 goals for every 60 minutes played) with the obvious caveat that he played on a very strong club in a very weak division. He had a rough play-offs (18 GP, 0-0-0, -2) which may explain the Red Wings reluctance to bring him back, but one has to think with the dearth of quality defenders out there that some middle tier or bottom feeder team would take a run at him. Clubs like Phoenix, Edmonton, Pittsburgh and Washington could use someone of Markov's caliber to solidify their top 4.
I guess I don't know anything for certain. Perhaps Markov has fielded offers from half the teams in the NHL and is just waiting for a big, Souray-like pay-day. Or perhaps he has his sights set on playing for one particular Franchise, like Brad Stuart, and is still trying to hammer out a favorable deal with them. Or maybe someone back in Mother Russia is calling him.
While those are possiblities, it seems on the face of things that Markov was swept aside during the initial UFA feeding frenzy and has been left to drift with the tide.
Tuesday, July 24, 2007
Metamorph
So I've made a couple of changes round these parts. I upgraded the blogger template so that I could add the "starred items" from my google reader on the right hand side. Basically it allows me to share some of the notable posts I come across in the hockey blogosphere.
In addition, I've dumped the white text on black background look. I liked it, personally, but heard it was tough on a lot of people's eyes. Thus the more neutral color scheme. We plan on adding Soundwave's great "Five Hole Fanatics" title bar in due time, so fret not.
Comments and suggestions are welcome.
In addition, I've dumped the white text on black background look. I liked it, personally, but heard it was tough on a lot of people's eyes. Thus the more neutral color scheme. We plan on adding Soundwave's great "Five Hole Fanatics" title bar in due time, so fret not.
Comments and suggestions are welcome.
Darkhorse in the SE
Has anyone else noticed that Martin might be building a contender in Florida? The Panthers missed the post-season by only 6 points last year and they suffered the highest number of OT losses in the Eastern conference (16), likely due to their terrible goaltending. As such, their goal differential was in the red (-10) but nominally better than the three teams directly above them in the standings (Toronto, Montreal and Carolina).
So obviously the addition of Tomas Vokoun will go a long way to deleting some goals against and adding wins. Vokoun has hovered around the .920 SV% mark the last two seasons (albeit on a better team in the Western Conference). Even if he drops down to the .910 SV% level, that'll be a 0.008 (0.8%) improvement above and beyond what Belfour offered last year, and a .022 improvement over Auld. Point eight percent doesn't sound like a lot, but equates to 5 less goals against over the 1550 shots Belfour faced in 06/07. Add to the fact that the 2.2% increase in SV% from Auld to Vokoun over 729 shots equates to 16 less goals against and you have a team with a few more wins in their procket thanks to goaltending alone.
Course, Martin has also quietly gone about improving his team in other ways as well this summer. He's added under the radar guys like Radek Dvorak, Richard Zednik and Brett McLean, all of whom are relatively effective vets that should solidify the Panthers bottom six forwards. He also inked Cory Murphy, the undersized puck moving Canadian who, until the recent World Championships, toiled in obscurity in the Finnish Elite League. In addition, Martin re-signed one of the leagues best kept secrets, Joszef Stumpel, to a very reasonable contract (2.25M for 2 years). Stumpel scored 23 goals last year, and 25 points on the PP in just 231 minutes of play. That's a 6.49 PPP/60 rate of production, among some of the best in the league. He wasn't much of a threat at ES (1.91 ESP/60), but for 20 goals and a high level of efficacy on the PP, one can do much worse for $2.25M.
The true quality assets, however, are the Panthers impressive young players. Olli Jokinen cracked the 90 point barrier for the first time in his career last year, and managed an impresive 3.00 ESP/60 rating. At 28 years old, he's entering his prime years and looks to be poised to join the ranks of the NHL's notable Big Guns. In addition, the Panthers boast the likes of Nathan Horton and Stephen Weiss up front as well as Jay Bouwmeester, Bryan Allen, Mike Van Ryn and Noah Welch on the blueline. Bouwmeester in particular took a few more steps towards becoming the elite defender his natural skills suggest: He faced the toughest competition on the team, played in front of some brutal goaltending on a losing club and still managed a +23 rating. He also scored 12 goals and 42 points, the former being a large improvement over his previous best of 5. A career year for the young rising star is no doubt in order next season.
Bryan Allen, the last vestige of the Luongo trade, played a lot at ES and SH last season and wasn't under water. He's only 26 and looks to be rounding into a capable top 4 defender. At least they got something out of that deal.
There's also Noah Welch, the big, promising prospect the Panthers acquired from the Penguins in return for Gary Roberts at the deadline last year, and he looks to be ready to contribute at the NHL level. He's 24 and has some decent AHL numbers behind him. Rounding out a capable top 6 defense corps is Ruslan Salei and Mike Van Ryn. Salei is a vet who struggled last year, but will likely fare better with a lighter work load and improved goaltending behind him. Van Ryn is a PP point producer who can eat up some minutes at ES without hurting the team too badly. With Van Ryn, Murphy and Bouwmeester manning the points, the Panthers have some decent weapons on the back-end with the man advantage.
Course, one also has to consider that Florida plays in the SE conference, still one of the worst in the league. Atlanta was condemned as the weakest division champion going into the play-offs last season and they quickly proved the pundits right by being unceremoniously swept aside by the Rangers. Waddell has done little more than re-arrange deck chairs this summer by adding Eric Perrin, Todd White and Ken Klee. Klee is a wily vet, but isn't a differece maker here. They lost Tkachuk to free agency and surrendered a young, blossoming prospect in Braydon Coburn to the Flyers for Alexei Zhitnik at the deadline. They are still in desperate need of some top 6 talent, especially someone to feed Kovalchuk when Hossa isn't doing it on the PP.
Yup. The stars will have to align for the Thrashers to take the SE again.
The Hurricanes are a decent team with mediocre defensive depth and only average goaltending. If Cam Ward struggles again, they may well end up outside the play-off picture for the second straight year. Washington is building something, but they aren't there yet. The Caps still lack depth at almost every position and will be cannon fodder for the NHL's better teams against next year. The Lightning will probably make the post-season on the backs of their elite 3 again next year (that's how good they are), but I don't see them running away with the division thanks to their lackluster blueline depth, wince-worthy bottom six forwards and their goaltending, which has been an issue in Tampa since the Bulin Wall fell.
Anyways, it looks to me like Panthers are the strongest team in the division, at least on paper at this point. They easily have one of the top 2 goalies, the best blueline and the potential to score some goals, especially if Jokinen, Weiss and Horton continue to improve. I don't think they'll be challenging the Ottawa Senators of the world for the Eastern Conference, but are probably play-off bound for the first time in awhile assuming nothing much changes in the South East between now and then.
So obviously the addition of Tomas Vokoun will go a long way to deleting some goals against and adding wins. Vokoun has hovered around the .920 SV% mark the last two seasons (albeit on a better team in the Western Conference). Even if he drops down to the .910 SV% level, that'll be a 0.008 (0.8%) improvement above and beyond what Belfour offered last year, and a .022 improvement over Auld. Point eight percent doesn't sound like a lot, but equates to 5 less goals against over the 1550 shots Belfour faced in 06/07. Add to the fact that the 2.2% increase in SV% from Auld to Vokoun over 729 shots equates to 16 less goals against and you have a team with a few more wins in their procket thanks to goaltending alone.
Course, Martin has also quietly gone about improving his team in other ways as well this summer. He's added under the radar guys like Radek Dvorak, Richard Zednik and Brett McLean, all of whom are relatively effective vets that should solidify the Panthers bottom six forwards. He also inked Cory Murphy, the undersized puck moving Canadian who, until the recent World Championships, toiled in obscurity in the Finnish Elite League. In addition, Martin re-signed one of the leagues best kept secrets, Joszef Stumpel, to a very reasonable contract (2.25M for 2 years). Stumpel scored 23 goals last year, and 25 points on the PP in just 231 minutes of play. That's a 6.49 PPP/60 rate of production, among some of the best in the league. He wasn't much of a threat at ES (1.91 ESP/60), but for 20 goals and a high level of efficacy on the PP, one can do much worse for $2.25M.
The true quality assets, however, are the Panthers impressive young players. Olli Jokinen cracked the 90 point barrier for the first time in his career last year, and managed an impresive 3.00 ESP/60 rating. At 28 years old, he's entering his prime years and looks to be poised to join the ranks of the NHL's notable Big Guns. In addition, the Panthers boast the likes of Nathan Horton and Stephen Weiss up front as well as Jay Bouwmeester, Bryan Allen, Mike Van Ryn and Noah Welch on the blueline. Bouwmeester in particular took a few more steps towards becoming the elite defender his natural skills suggest: He faced the toughest competition on the team, played in front of some brutal goaltending on a losing club and still managed a +23 rating. He also scored 12 goals and 42 points, the former being a large improvement over his previous best of 5. A career year for the young rising star is no doubt in order next season.
Bryan Allen, the last vestige of the Luongo trade, played a lot at ES and SH last season and wasn't under water. He's only 26 and looks to be rounding into a capable top 4 defender. At least they got something out of that deal.
There's also Noah Welch, the big, promising prospect the Panthers acquired from the Penguins in return for Gary Roberts at the deadline last year, and he looks to be ready to contribute at the NHL level. He's 24 and has some decent AHL numbers behind him. Rounding out a capable top 6 defense corps is Ruslan Salei and Mike Van Ryn. Salei is a vet who struggled last year, but will likely fare better with a lighter work load and improved goaltending behind him. Van Ryn is a PP point producer who can eat up some minutes at ES without hurting the team too badly. With Van Ryn, Murphy and Bouwmeester manning the points, the Panthers have some decent weapons on the back-end with the man advantage.
Course, one also has to consider that Florida plays in the SE conference, still one of the worst in the league. Atlanta was condemned as the weakest division champion going into the play-offs last season and they quickly proved the pundits right by being unceremoniously swept aside by the Rangers. Waddell has done little more than re-arrange deck chairs this summer by adding Eric Perrin, Todd White and Ken Klee. Klee is a wily vet, but isn't a differece maker here. They lost Tkachuk to free agency and surrendered a young, blossoming prospect in Braydon Coburn to the Flyers for Alexei Zhitnik at the deadline. They are still in desperate need of some top 6 talent, especially someone to feed Kovalchuk when Hossa isn't doing it on the PP.
Yup. The stars will have to align for the Thrashers to take the SE again.
The Hurricanes are a decent team with mediocre defensive depth and only average goaltending. If Cam Ward struggles again, they may well end up outside the play-off picture for the second straight year. Washington is building something, but they aren't there yet. The Caps still lack depth at almost every position and will be cannon fodder for the NHL's better teams against next year. The Lightning will probably make the post-season on the backs of their elite 3 again next year (that's how good they are), but I don't see them running away with the division thanks to their lackluster blueline depth, wince-worthy bottom six forwards and their goaltending, which has been an issue in Tampa since the Bulin Wall fell.
Anyways, it looks to me like Panthers are the strongest team in the division, at least on paper at this point. They easily have one of the top 2 goalies, the best blueline and the potential to score some goals, especially if Jokinen, Weiss and Horton continue to improve. I don't think they'll be challenging the Ottawa Senators of the world for the Eastern Conference, but are probably play-off bound for the first time in awhile assuming nothing much changes in the South East between now and then.
Monday, July 23, 2007
Transaction Tracker
For those of you curious about just what, preciesly, the Flames have been up to this summer, the official website has up a handy little tracker.
Included are trades, major and minor league signings, the draft and notable accomplishments by Flames players and prospects.
Included are trades, major and minor league signings, the draft and notable accomplishments by Flames players and prospects.
Yeah. I'm Bored Too.
During my days as a penniless University student, I took a particular interest in the social sciences: sociology, psychology, etc. One of the more interesting such courses was "deviant sociology". For whatever reason, one lesson that has endured the inevitable memory decay was "hierarchical prostitute typology". According to the prevailing studies at the time, there are several species of hooker: street walker, bar hooker, escort. The first represents the "lowest" form of Professional, while the final is the apex position of the industry.
With this in mind and to combat the summer doldrums, I figured I'd construct a "player typology" (more to clarify my own assumptions when talking about the sport going forward than to compare players to prostitutes)...
*ahem*
Even-Stevens:
This is the bare-minimum you want from an NHL player on your roster: the guy who plays some minutes and doesn't end up costing the team goals, who gets as many as he gives up in the long-run. Typically a bottom six forward who plays 8 to 12 minutes a game, mostly at even strength against other guys like him and maybe a bit on the PK, depending on circumstances. Like the "street walker" type above, this is usually the onset and cessation point for NHL careers: rookies, sophomores and fading vets (as well as the odd enforcer) overwhelmingly populate this category.
Even-Stevens are usually looked upon for secondary and tertiary contributions: puck possession, physicality, "high energy shifts" etc. Offensive production is a bonus. An ideal Even-Steven shift is 40 seconds or so of offensive-zone cycling, punctuated by a loud body-check or two. You almost never want to see them caged in their own end, particularly by the opposition's better players (the Soft Comp Eaters and the Big Guns) because they lack either the skill or the defensive acumen to properly avert disaster. Need to be sheltered, therefore, and are usually exposed on the road. Cheapest forwards on the roster.
Flames of this type: Primeau, Moss, Nilson
The Quellers:
The Anaheim Ducks trio of Sammy Pahlsson, Travis Moen and Rob Niedermayer are the archetypal Queller line: they consistently and successfully suppress the scoring of the opposition's Big Guns. These guys are the 15-18 minute/game players, with most of it played at ES or on the PK. Selke trophy candidates live here. Quellers aren't the most offensively gifted players, but usually score enough so that they up evens or better at ES. Adept Quellers are valuable and in short supply. Some teams eschew this type altogether, owing to a lack of qualified personnel (Chicago Blackhawks) or an abundance of Soft Comp Eaters (Buffalo Sabres). Sometimes an Even-Steven can become a Queller, depending on the quality of his work ethic and teammates. See: Travis Moen.
Flames of this type: Yelle, Nilson, Conroy (?)
The Soft Comp Eaters:
Top sixers that can't excel against the Big Guns or the Quellers, but tend to put up good counting numbers against other Soft Compers or Even-Stevens. Another landing place for up-and-coming youngsters and fading stars. Need decent linemates and minutes to produce. Fifteen - 20 minute per nighters, with time on the first or 2nd unit powerplay. Productive SCE's can have inflated +/- values on good teams, thanks to consistently outscoring their outmatched opposition. Thomas Vanek was Buffalo's big Soft Comp Eater last year. May graduate to become a Big Gun.
Flames of this type: Huselius, Lombardi, Langkow
Big Guns:
The offensive stars and superstars of the team. The guys who put up good to elite ES production rates whoever they're matched against. A minimum of 18 minutes per night, with first unit PP time. The Ottawa Senators line of Heatley - Spezza - Alfredsson might be the best Big Guns trio in the league, for example. Often a club will have only one or two of these guys (and sometimes none at all), so Big Guns are occasionally mixed with other types, such as Soft Comp Eaters or a particularly rambunctious Even-Steven, depth dependent of course. Big Guns are the difference makers that typically have to be grown in-house or snagged for big dough from the UFA market (although sometimes an idiot will trade you, say, Joe Thornton for bits). The "high-class escorts" of the NHL, so to speak.
Flames of this type: Iginla, Tanguay
Of course, players don't often neatly fit into these categories. There are a lot of "tweener" guys like Marcus Nilson, who can be either a Queller or Even-Steven, depending on the circumstances. Meditating factors such as quality of coaching and roster depth can also have an effect on where a player ends up and whether he excels at that position.
When concocting the above, some of the Flames issues from last season came into clearer focus for me. While Calgary's Big Guns and Soft Comp Eaters seemed to flourish last year, the team was definitely lacking in quality players of the other types: Sutter's reclamation projects of Tony Amonte and Jeff Friesen, for instance, proved to be ineffective and relatively expensive Even-Stevens (both of whom ended up in the red). I think both were expected to be, at least, decent Soft Comp Eaters, but neither could keep his head above water at ES and neither could produce on the PP. Friesen started to look like a decent PKer by the end of the year, but he was so useless otherwise it wasn't enough to justify his place on the roster (or help the team win). Amonte's failure to adequately fill in on the Langkow/Huselius line paved the way for Moss' promotion to the top-6, although I tend to consider him an Even-Steven under ideal circumstances.
In addition, potential Quellers like Yelle and Nilson struggled for a sizable portion of the season. Yelle saw some decent competition, but was scored on (25 ES GA) as much as he scored (26 ES GF). His GA/60 rate came out to 2.53, which put him inside the bottom six for the Flames, effectively making him an Even-Steven rather than a Queller.
Nilson struggled to recover from knee-issues that slowed him significantly. He saw time on both the 3rd and 4th line in only 629 minutes of action. He promoted scoring a tad more than he allowed it (23 GF vs 17 GA), but wasn't facing the Big Guns all year. Thirteenth forward Byron Ritchie also ended up even (19 GF, 18 GA), partially owing to his sudden burst of offensive efficacy during Iginla's absence in January. Still, he proved to be a more effective Even-Steven than either Amonte or Friesen.
Craig Conroy is another puzzle going into next season. He put up decent stats with Iginla and Tanguay (though I contend it would be hard not to). He's on the bad side of 35 and seems to have slowed a tad in my eyes. Conroy's still a decent enough skater, just can't react and process the play fast enough to be a consistent top-6 contributer. He could likely be a decent enough compliment on a Queller line, although he might get more ice with the Big Guns if Keenan gives Lombardi the Playfair treatment come October.
Speaking of, it was the manner in which Playfair utilized Lombardi last season that spoke to one of his deficiencies as a head coach: Lombo is a classic Soft Comp Eater. He beats up on 3rd pairing defensemen, particularly when he uses his speed off the rush, but tends to struggle against the Ohlunds and Lidstroms of the world. He's not going to break through really tough checking, but has the ability to bury scoring chances and thread sneaky passes down low if given enough room and time. As proof of this, please refer to his performance during the recent World Championship tourny.
Of course, post-Conroy acquisition, Lombo was frequently stuck among the Even-Stevens on the Flames, many of whom, as I've discussed, weren't all that effective at even that level of play. Lombardi isn't a good enough checker to be a Queller and his value is significantly diminished by lesser linemates and smaller ice times. Im convinced he could excel if deployed appropriately and am hoping he gets adequate opportunity among the top 6 to prove me right this coming year.
Calgary's roster going forward looks to have a decent compliment of all 4 forward types: two Big Guns in Tanguay and Iginla, several quality Soft Comp Eaters in Lombardi, Huselius, Langkow (who is versatile enough to play with the Quellers or the Big Guns if you ask me) and, hopefully, Owen Nolan. Yelle, Nilson and Conroy all look like Queller material to me, particularly Yelle who, when healthy and effective, is an elite shot-blocker and penalty killer. A combination of Godard, Moss, Primeau and a rookie (Taratukhin?) will fill out the Even-Steven category.
Current Forward Depth Chart:
Tanguay - Langkow - Iginla -> Big Guns
Huselus - Lombardi - Nolan -> Soft Comp Munchers
Nilson - Yelle - Conroy (C/RW) -> Quellers
Primeau (C/LW) - Taratukhin (C/LW) -> Moss - Even-Stevens
(Godard)
Gone are Amonte, Friesen, Kobasew, Ritchie and Lundmark. I think, given the additions and deletions, that the above looks like the stronger roster. The Keenan factor is an unknown variable going into the year, so I can't say whether he'll employ the players in the roles I've defined above. Perhaps he'll toss Huselius back in the doghouse and promote Primeau. Maybe he'll harangue Lombardi into pre-mature obsolescence. Im confident that Tanguay and Iginla and too establihed to be bucked from their Big Gun status, although some messageboarders claim Tanguay will be one of the guys targeted by Iron Mike. I don't see it personally: as Matt says, all Tanguay does is score points. He's put up elite ES rates for a couple years now and was one of the harder working guys down the stretch for the club last April.
I think the Huselius issue is a concern, as an effective Juice gives the Flames a two-pronged attack and a particularly dangerous Soft Comp Eating second line. A deflated Huselius, who was the Flames best forward with the man advantage last year as well, impairs the production of a linemate like Langkow and puts undue pressure on the Big Guns. Calgary has one more year with Kristian and it would be great if he could outperform his contract again before leaving. Course, he might come cheaply in '09 if Keenan ruins him. But then, why would we want to keep him?
With this in mind and to combat the summer doldrums, I figured I'd construct a "player typology" (more to clarify my own assumptions when talking about the sport going forward than to compare players to prostitutes)...
*ahem*
Even-Stevens:
This is the bare-minimum you want from an NHL player on your roster: the guy who plays some minutes and doesn't end up costing the team goals, who gets as many as he gives up in the long-run. Typically a bottom six forward who plays 8 to 12 minutes a game, mostly at even strength against other guys like him and maybe a bit on the PK, depending on circumstances. Like the "street walker" type above, this is usually the onset and cessation point for NHL careers: rookies, sophomores and fading vets (as well as the odd enforcer) overwhelmingly populate this category.
Even-Stevens are usually looked upon for secondary and tertiary contributions: puck possession, physicality, "high energy shifts" etc. Offensive production is a bonus. An ideal Even-Steven shift is 40 seconds or so of offensive-zone cycling, punctuated by a loud body-check or two. You almost never want to see them caged in their own end, particularly by the opposition's better players (the Soft Comp Eaters and the Big Guns) because they lack either the skill or the defensive acumen to properly avert disaster. Need to be sheltered, therefore, and are usually exposed on the road. Cheapest forwards on the roster.
Flames of this type: Primeau, Moss, Nilson
The Quellers:
The Anaheim Ducks trio of Sammy Pahlsson, Travis Moen and Rob Niedermayer are the archetypal Queller line: they consistently and successfully suppress the scoring of the opposition's Big Guns. These guys are the 15-18 minute/game players, with most of it played at ES or on the PK. Selke trophy candidates live here. Quellers aren't the most offensively gifted players, but usually score enough so that they up evens or better at ES. Adept Quellers are valuable and in short supply. Some teams eschew this type altogether, owing to a lack of qualified personnel (Chicago Blackhawks) or an abundance of Soft Comp Eaters (Buffalo Sabres). Sometimes an Even-Steven can become a Queller, depending on the quality of his work ethic and teammates. See: Travis Moen.
Flames of this type: Yelle, Nilson, Conroy (?)
The Soft Comp Eaters:
Top sixers that can't excel against the Big Guns or the Quellers, but tend to put up good counting numbers against other Soft Compers or Even-Stevens. Another landing place for up-and-coming youngsters and fading stars. Need decent linemates and minutes to produce. Fifteen - 20 minute per nighters, with time on the first or 2nd unit powerplay. Productive SCE's can have inflated +/- values on good teams, thanks to consistently outscoring their outmatched opposition. Thomas Vanek was Buffalo's big Soft Comp Eater last year. May graduate to become a Big Gun.
Flames of this type: Huselius, Lombardi, Langkow
Big Guns:
The offensive stars and superstars of the team. The guys who put up good to elite ES production rates whoever they're matched against. A minimum of 18 minutes per night, with first unit PP time. The Ottawa Senators line of Heatley - Spezza - Alfredsson might be the best Big Guns trio in the league, for example. Often a club will have only one or two of these guys (and sometimes none at all), so Big Guns are occasionally mixed with other types, such as Soft Comp Eaters or a particularly rambunctious Even-Steven, depth dependent of course. Big Guns are the difference makers that typically have to be grown in-house or snagged for big dough from the UFA market (although sometimes an idiot will trade you, say, Joe Thornton for bits). The "high-class escorts" of the NHL, so to speak.
Flames of this type: Iginla, Tanguay
Of course, players don't often neatly fit into these categories. There are a lot of "tweener" guys like Marcus Nilson, who can be either a Queller or Even-Steven, depending on the circumstances. Meditating factors such as quality of coaching and roster depth can also have an effect on where a player ends up and whether he excels at that position.
When concocting the above, some of the Flames issues from last season came into clearer focus for me. While Calgary's Big Guns and Soft Comp Eaters seemed to flourish last year, the team was definitely lacking in quality players of the other types: Sutter's reclamation projects of Tony Amonte and Jeff Friesen, for instance, proved to be ineffective and relatively expensive Even-Stevens (both of whom ended up in the red). I think both were expected to be, at least, decent Soft Comp Eaters, but neither could keep his head above water at ES and neither could produce on the PP. Friesen started to look like a decent PKer by the end of the year, but he was so useless otherwise it wasn't enough to justify his place on the roster (or help the team win). Amonte's failure to adequately fill in on the Langkow/Huselius line paved the way for Moss' promotion to the top-6, although I tend to consider him an Even-Steven under ideal circumstances.
In addition, potential Quellers like Yelle and Nilson struggled for a sizable portion of the season. Yelle saw some decent competition, but was scored on (25 ES GA) as much as he scored (26 ES GF). His GA/60 rate came out to 2.53, which put him inside the bottom six for the Flames, effectively making him an Even-Steven rather than a Queller.
Nilson struggled to recover from knee-issues that slowed him significantly. He saw time on both the 3rd and 4th line in only 629 minutes of action. He promoted scoring a tad more than he allowed it (23 GF vs 17 GA), but wasn't facing the Big Guns all year. Thirteenth forward Byron Ritchie also ended up even (19 GF, 18 GA), partially owing to his sudden burst of offensive efficacy during Iginla's absence in January. Still, he proved to be a more effective Even-Steven than either Amonte or Friesen.
Craig Conroy is another puzzle going into next season. He put up decent stats with Iginla and Tanguay (though I contend it would be hard not to). He's on the bad side of 35 and seems to have slowed a tad in my eyes. Conroy's still a decent enough skater, just can't react and process the play fast enough to be a consistent top-6 contributer. He could likely be a decent enough compliment on a Queller line, although he might get more ice with the Big Guns if Keenan gives Lombardi the Playfair treatment come October.
Speaking of, it was the manner in which Playfair utilized Lombardi last season that spoke to one of his deficiencies as a head coach: Lombo is a classic Soft Comp Eater. He beats up on 3rd pairing defensemen, particularly when he uses his speed off the rush, but tends to struggle against the Ohlunds and Lidstroms of the world. He's not going to break through really tough checking, but has the ability to bury scoring chances and thread sneaky passes down low if given enough room and time. As proof of this, please refer to his performance during the recent World Championship tourny.
Of course, post-Conroy acquisition, Lombo was frequently stuck among the Even-Stevens on the Flames, many of whom, as I've discussed, weren't all that effective at even that level of play. Lombardi isn't a good enough checker to be a Queller and his value is significantly diminished by lesser linemates and smaller ice times. Im convinced he could excel if deployed appropriately and am hoping he gets adequate opportunity among the top 6 to prove me right this coming year.
Calgary's roster going forward looks to have a decent compliment of all 4 forward types: two Big Guns in Tanguay and Iginla, several quality Soft Comp Eaters in Lombardi, Huselius, Langkow (who is versatile enough to play with the Quellers or the Big Guns if you ask me) and, hopefully, Owen Nolan. Yelle, Nilson and Conroy all look like Queller material to me, particularly Yelle who, when healthy and effective, is an elite shot-blocker and penalty killer. A combination of Godard, Moss, Primeau and a rookie (Taratukhin?) will fill out the Even-Steven category.
Current Forward Depth Chart:
Tanguay - Langkow - Iginla -> Big Guns
Huselus - Lombardi - Nolan -> Soft Comp Munchers
Nilson - Yelle - Conroy (C/RW) -> Quellers
Primeau (C/LW) - Taratukhin (C/LW) -> Moss - Even-Stevens
(Godard)
Gone are Amonte, Friesen, Kobasew, Ritchie and Lundmark. I think, given the additions and deletions, that the above looks like the stronger roster. The Keenan factor is an unknown variable going into the year, so I can't say whether he'll employ the players in the roles I've defined above. Perhaps he'll toss Huselius back in the doghouse and promote Primeau. Maybe he'll harangue Lombardi into pre-mature obsolescence. Im confident that Tanguay and Iginla and too establihed to be bucked from their Big Gun status, although some messageboarders claim Tanguay will be one of the guys targeted by Iron Mike. I don't see it personally: as Matt says, all Tanguay does is score points. He's put up elite ES rates for a couple years now and was one of the harder working guys down the stretch for the club last April.
I think the Huselius issue is a concern, as an effective Juice gives the Flames a two-pronged attack and a particularly dangerous Soft Comp Eating second line. A deflated Huselius, who was the Flames best forward with the man advantage last year as well, impairs the production of a linemate like Langkow and puts undue pressure on the Big Guns. Calgary has one more year with Kristian and it would be great if he could outperform his contract again before leaving. Course, he might come cheaply in '09 if Keenan ruins him. But then, why would we want to keep him?
Monday, July 16, 2007
What's going on in the Desert?
Try this: ask all your hockey friends who they think will be the worst team in the NHL next season...
Invariably you'll find the answer to be "the Phoenix Coyotes".
I feel for their few, long-suffering fans, I really do. The Franchise seemed to take a step in the right direction this summer when they axed Mike Barnett. But since then, they've released some players, put Nick Boynton on waivers and signed Mike York. That's it as far as I know.
That leaves the Coyotes with 8 signed NHL-caliber forwards (inluding the likes of Freddy Sjostrom, Mike Zigomanis and Kevyn Adams), 4 NHL caliber defensemen (including the aforementioned Boynton) and a starting goaltender named Mikael Tellqvist. To my knowledge, they haven't even re-signed Keith Ballard yet, one of their few highly valuable young assets (now there's a guy worth tendering an offer sheet to).
Ugly. At least Oilers fans will be able to look down their noses at someone this upcoming season. With apologies to Shane Doan, if something quite drastic doesn't happen between now and October, Phoenix will be hard pressed to win 20 games all year. As it stands, they have a 140 goal roster with a sub-0.900SV% goaltender. Not a winning formula. Hell, they need to spend another $10M+ just to get to the salary cap basement.
With the latter point in mind, I think Tony Amonte's career might find a stay of execution this summer - simply because the Coyotes have to fill their roster with some contracts. Maybe Friesen too.
On that note, here's Mirtles big UFA "who's left" list. What other unwanted pariahs will make their way down south this summer? Yashin? Niinimaa? Auld? Stefan?
What a hideous patch-work quilt that roster's going to end up being. Gretzky coaching this group next year will be akin to Michaelangelo sculpting marble with a carrot and a wet paper bag.
The future is grim for this organization Im afraid. Perhaps a chance at drafting Tavares is all Coyotes fans have to look forward to...
Friday, July 13, 2007
44 Reasons for Oilers Fans to Rejoice
With the recent announcement that the Oil have finally managed to attract a hockey player with a heart beat to play with their team, I think that it's prudent to speculate on some of the finer details of the contract...
Firstly, it should be known that while Lowe stated that he would overpay all FA's that came to his city, it should also be noted that he's trying to sell the city by telling players that they are only obligated to play road games. This is an attempt to limit any time spent in the city at all. I also believe that he is trying to set up partnerships with rival teams to allow newly signed free agents to practise in other cities as well. Each FA that signs with Edmonton will be given a life-sized cardboard cut out to serve as their doppleganger for press conferences, and post-game interviews conducted in Edmonton before or after home games. Intelligence of dialogue is expected to be the same.
Secondly, with the signing of Souray, the Oilers have offered royalties to Souray for each fan that will change their name-bars on the back of their Pronger and Niinimaa to Souray. They will also pay double royalties for those who change the 9 on their Smyth jerseys to a 4, and also change the name bar. It has been suggested that this will add another $2-3 million in bonuses for Souray at $1-2 per jersey (read: Edmonton Formal Wear) changed.
You see? Things are looking up.
Great job Mr. Lowe, we knew you could do it.
Firstly, it should be known that while Lowe stated that he would overpay all FA's that came to his city, it should also be noted that he's trying to sell the city by telling players that they are only obligated to play road games. This is an attempt to limit any time spent in the city at all. I also believe that he is trying to set up partnerships with rival teams to allow newly signed free agents to practise in other cities as well. Each FA that signs with Edmonton will be given a life-sized cardboard cut out to serve as their doppleganger for press conferences, and post-game interviews conducted in Edmonton before or after home games. Intelligence of dialogue is expected to be the same.
Secondly, with the signing of Souray, the Oilers have offered royalties to Souray for each fan that will change their name-bars on the back of their Pronger and Niinimaa to Souray. They will also pay double royalties for those who change the 9 on their Smyth jerseys to a 4, and also change the name bar. It has been suggested that this will add another $2-3 million in bonuses for Souray at $1-2 per jersey (read: Edmonton Formal Wear) changed.
You see? Things are looking up.
Great job Mr. Lowe, we knew you could do it.
Yay!
The Oilers got Sheldon Souray? For 5M+? For 5 seasons?
I think Lowe has become my 2nd favorite GM this off-season.
I think Lowe has become my 2nd favorite GM this off-season.
Tuesday, July 10, 2007
Ripples
In the wake of Lowe's desperate bid to pry Vanek out of Buffalo (and to stay the executioners hand), the Pittsburgh Penguins decided to sign Sidney Crosby to a 5 year, $45M contract extension.
I think it would polite and appropriate if Sid sent Lowe a thank-you card.
EDIT - Apparently Ovechkin agrees with me:
"I think Pittsburgh wasted no time offering Crosby the deal because of what Edmonton did trying to sign a restricted free agent. Any Canadian team (and not only Canadian) could have offered great terms to Crosby in the future. And who knows if the Penguins could have matched it. But now Sindey is staying in Pittsburgh, and will stay there beyond 2013, in my opinion."
I think it would polite and appropriate if Sid sent Lowe a thank-you card.
EDIT - Apparently Ovechkin agrees with me:
"I think Pittsburgh wasted no time offering Crosby the deal because of what Edmonton did trying to sign a restricted free agent. Any Canadian team (and not only Canadian) could have offered great terms to Crosby in the future. And who knows if the Penguins could have matched it. But now Sindey is staying in Pittsburgh, and will stay there beyond 2013, in my opinion."
Friday, July 06, 2007
Desperate Times, Desperate Measures...UPDATED
Let me get this straight. Thomas Vanek...for $50 million...over seven years. Has Lowe lost his effing mind?
If the Oilers succeed in this desperate gambit to snatch Vanek from the Sabres, not only will it cost them four first round draft picks (!!), but also the good-will of GM's around the league. The price-tag is incredibly inflationary for a kid like Vanek AND RFA's are "unofficially" out of bounds.
Ignoring the gentlemen's rules governing RFA offer-sheets, this is a bad, bad move by Lowe. Vanek's counting numbers are really impressive from last year, but probably inflated from playing on the Buffalo Sabres: largely because Vanek skated on a 3rd line that saw some of the softest minutes available, while guys like Briere and Drury took on the tougher competition (thus his +40 rating). Vanek may well turn into a superstar some day - but until he proves himself as such, paying him a whopping 7M+/season turns him into a liability. Not to mention, of course, the 4 first rounders this will cost - 4 potential future impact players down the tubes.
Expect the Sabres to grudgingly match the offer. I would hope they do if I were an Oiler fan at least.
And I thought it couldn't get any stranger up there. Wow.
UPDATE - The Sabres have matched the offer. Does Lowe move onto Parise now?
If the Oilers succeed in this desperate gambit to snatch Vanek from the Sabres, not only will it cost them four first round draft picks (!!), but also the good-will of GM's around the league. The price-tag is incredibly inflationary for a kid like Vanek AND RFA's are "unofficially" out of bounds.
Ignoring the gentlemen's rules governing RFA offer-sheets, this is a bad, bad move by Lowe. Vanek's counting numbers are really impressive from last year, but probably inflated from playing on the Buffalo Sabres: largely because Vanek skated on a 3rd line that saw some of the softest minutes available, while guys like Briere and Drury took on the tougher competition (thus his +40 rating). Vanek may well turn into a superstar some day - but until he proves himself as such, paying him a whopping 7M+/season turns him into a liability. Not to mention, of course, the 4 first rounders this will cost - 4 potential future impact players down the tubes.
Expect the Sabres to grudgingly match the offer. I would hope they do if I were an Oiler fan at least.
And I thought it couldn't get any stranger up there. Wow.
UPDATE - The Sabres have matched the offer. Does Lowe move onto Parise now?
Thursday, July 05, 2007
Anders Again
Surprisingly, the Flames have signed Anders Eriksson for the second time. He was Flames property a couple of seasons ago, but never suited up for the club. The contract is apparently a two-year deal (no dollar figure released).
Eriksson is likely a Zyuzin replacement. With the sigining, the Flames now have 8 NHL caliber defensemen:
Hale
Warrener
Giordano
Eriksson
Phaneuf
Aucoin
Regehr
Sarich
By my count that's at least one too many, unless someone's going to spend a majority of the season in Quad Cities. If that turns out to be Gio I think I'll start mailing Anthrax powder and letter-bombs to Flames management and kicking strangers in the throat.
On the other hand, this could signal the end of Rhett Warrener in the Flaming C. He is clearly overpaid for his contributions and has become replaceable by other, cheaper options. He's been a Sutter favorite from day one, so it's hard to picture him being dealt. Perhaps retirement is in order?
As for Eriksson, he ended up being the BJ's blueline leader in terms of both points (23 assists) and plus/minus last season (+12). He was also top four among Columbus defenders in terms ES ice/game (14:30) and SH ice/game (2:52), so it's not like the Flames signed another Andrea Susan (seemingly). Whatever minutes he was getting, soft or hard, brief or long, +12 on that terrible team is kind of impressive. It'll be interesting to see where he falls on the depth chart come October.
Eriksson is likely a Zyuzin replacement. With the sigining, the Flames now have 8 NHL caliber defensemen:
Hale
Warrener
Giordano
Eriksson
Phaneuf
Aucoin
Regehr
Sarich
By my count that's at least one too many, unless someone's going to spend a majority of the season in Quad Cities. If that turns out to be Gio I think I'll start mailing Anthrax powder and letter-bombs to Flames management and kicking strangers in the throat.
On the other hand, this could signal the end of Rhett Warrener in the Flaming C. He is clearly overpaid for his contributions and has become replaceable by other, cheaper options. He's been a Sutter favorite from day one, so it's hard to picture him being dealt. Perhaps retirement is in order?
As for Eriksson, he ended up being the BJ's blueline leader in terms of both points (23 assists) and plus/minus last season (+12). He was also top four among Columbus defenders in terms ES ice/game (14:30) and SH ice/game (2:52), so it's not like the Flames signed another Andrea Susan (seemingly). Whatever minutes he was getting, soft or hard, brief or long, +12 on that terrible team is kind of impressive. It'll be interesting to see where he falls on the depth chart come October.
The Circus Comes to Town
"We got more gongs than the break-dancing robot that caught on fire".
The fiasco up in Edmonton has reached epic, and embarrassingly public proportions with Lowe's most recent confessions to the media.
"We spent a lot of time at this. Our inability to attract guys. What is it? The city? Me? What's the statement?"
Not to kick a wounded man when he's down but, yes Kevin, it's you. You've almost singlehandedly torn a storied franchise down to the level of a third-rate after-thought organization. Your brethren are suddenly the Phoenix Coyotes and Columbus Blue Jackets of the world.
Some Stars seek escape, others are needlessly spurned. Departing players are thrown under the bus in the media. Grandiose moves are promised and back-up goaltenders are signed in their wake. It's all become a shit-show during a shit-storm.
To me, Lowe's quotes in the Jones piece read like a spurned teen aged girls tearful "he-said, she-said" account:
"He said he really liked me. I thought we were falling in love, maybe. But then I saw him with Jenny Flynt at the mall and...*sniffle* they were all, like, laughing and holding hands and whatever. Why would he do that? Is it something I did?"
As Matt says, loser talk. And it's pretty damn pathetic.
Course, as a Flames fan, I extract a measure of morbid glee from all the failure and anguish emanating from up north (for the latter, look here, here , here, and here). However, I've also experienced a twinge of empathy for the enemy through the last 6 months of their Job-like tribulations. Sure, I enjoy watching the Oilers lose and suck - but not quite like this. It doesn't feel right; unfair even. And the Edmonton fans, as much as I wish them continued misery, are passionate and knowledgeable and they don't deserve the pain wrought upon them by an incompetent and emasculated management.
So long, Kevin. We can all plainly see it's a comb-over.
The fiasco up in Edmonton has reached epic, and embarrassingly public proportions with Lowe's most recent confessions to the media.
"We spent a lot of time at this. Our inability to attract guys. What is it? The city? Me? What's the statement?"
Not to kick a wounded man when he's down but, yes Kevin, it's you. You've almost singlehandedly torn a storied franchise down to the level of a third-rate after-thought organization. Your brethren are suddenly the Phoenix Coyotes and Columbus Blue Jackets of the world.
Some Stars seek escape, others are needlessly spurned. Departing players are thrown under the bus in the media. Grandiose moves are promised and back-up goaltenders are signed in their wake. It's all become a shit-show during a shit-storm.
To me, Lowe's quotes in the Jones piece read like a spurned teen aged girls tearful "he-said, she-said" account:
"He said he really liked me. I thought we were falling in love, maybe. But then I saw him with Jenny Flynt at the mall and...*sniffle* they were all, like, laughing and holding hands and whatever. Why would he do that? Is it something I did?"
As Matt says, loser talk. And it's pretty damn pathetic.
Course, as a Flames fan, I extract a measure of morbid glee from all the failure and anguish emanating from up north (for the latter, look here, here , here, and here). However, I've also experienced a twinge of empathy for the enemy through the last 6 months of their Job-like tribulations. Sure, I enjoy watching the Oilers lose and suck - but not quite like this. It doesn't feel right; unfair even. And the Edmonton fans, as much as I wish them continued misery, are passionate and knowledgeable and they don't deserve the pain wrought upon them by an incompetent and emasculated management.
So long, Kevin. We can all plainly see it's a comb-over.
Tuesday, July 03, 2007
Done and Done
Lots to talk about today. Sarich, Regehr and Nolan, oh my!Let's start at the beginning. Sutter obviously knows more about Sarich than I do. Not only did he target him on the first day of free agency but immediately offered him a 5 year deal to boot.
I haven't seen much of Sarich over the last couple of years, so all I really know about him comes from the stats: He led all Tampa Bay defenders in terms of SH ice-time and, according to Desjardins, he faced the toughest competition of any regular Lightning skater as well. And while his -6 rating might look unimpressive, keep in mind he played in front of some pretty shoddy goaltending all season. The fact that the Lightning were a -18 in terms of ES goal differential means his -6 is less of an indictment than it would initially seem. For comparison purposes, Cory Sarich faced stiff competition all season, scored a mere 15 points and was 6 points underwater. Converesly, Dan Boyle scored 20 goals and 63 points, faced softer competition, and was a -5.
I find the stats encouraging. Sarich will likely be paired with Regehr in a shut-down role. The Flames will be a stronger ES team than the Lightning were, mostly due to their vastly superior goaltending. Expect him to get 20+ minutes a night and his +/- rating to be very different (that is, much higher) by the end of next season. The length and amount of his contract don't bother me (though the Flames certainly aren't getting a bargain, to be sure), but his age and potential to compliment Regehr for years to come renders this a pretty decent pick-up in my estimation.
Probably the best bit of news to come out of the Flames camp is the (yet to be officially confirmed) Robyn Regehr and Jarome Iginla extensions. If true, both are at discounts relative to what each player could get on the open market and both are therefore valuable assets to the organization going forward. Heck I was high-five, kiss-the-girlfriend ecstatic upon hearing about the purported Reggie signing yesterday. I thought the big guy struggled a bit last season, partially due to the carousel of partners he had to endure, and even then he managed an eye-bulging +27 mark while facing the stiffest competition on the team. And he's just entering his prime. $4M/year? Regher is easily a 5M defender right now despite his mediocre offensive numbers, and probably one of the premier "defensive defensemen" in the league. I consider the rumored "no movement clause" included in the deal to be a boon to the Flames rather than a potential hinderance. Make no mistake...this is no Bryan McCabe albatross we're talking about: barring an improbable drop-off in his play, this contract will just look better and better moving forward.
Iginla re-upping for $7M/year is so obviously advantageous that little else needs to be said. He's a pay-to-max type superstar who could likely command $9M-10M on the open market. I can't imagine how galling it must be for Edmonton fans to watch Sutter getting business done with the Flames core pieces.
The Owen Nolan acquisition is more ambiguous, unfortunately. He was second on a terrible Coyotes team last year in terms of points with 46 (ouch) and he did play 76 games, which is somewhat encouraging.
It's hard to tell if Nolan, at 35, will be another Selanne or Amonte. The former returned from a debilitating knee-injury as an older player and re-discovered his game. The latter experienced a plummet in his skills that was so steep, he'll likely be forced to retire this summer at the age of 36, thanks to a lack of interest in his services.
It's probable that Nolan will land somewhere in the middle, which is fine with me. His contract length (1 year) and height (2M max) aren't debilitating, so the risk is a minor one. If he plays 70+ games and improves on Amonte's 30 odd points, I'll be happy. The UFA winger crop wasn't terribly impressive this year, so I think the Nolan "stop-gap" measure is a better move than committing big, long-term dollars to a guy who likely won't be worth it far beyond this season. While signing someone like Ryan Smyth would have been sexier, the resultant contract would have proven troublesome to the organization's budget after this year.
Overall thus far, good stuff. We're 3 days into July and Sutter is basically finished. The last bit of business remaining would be a Kiprusoff extension. As a result, I have a sinking feeling this is going to be a pretty boring summer from a Flames perspective. Hopefully Lowe's desperate antics up in Edmonton will afford me a belly-laugh now and then.
Sunday, July 01, 2007
Sarich a Flame?
According to local radio, the Flames have (probably) signed UFA Cory Sarich. Sutter has a presser scheduled for 2:00pm to make the announcement. Salary is apparently in the 3.5M/year range, though no one is quite sure yet.
I think Sarich is a decent find, although I think the proposed dollar figure is a little high. He did a lot of heavy lifting for the Lightning last year and should be able to slide into the Flames top 4.
More talk and analysis re: Sarich after confirmation...
I think Sarich is a decent find, although I think the proposed dollar figure is a little high. He did a lot of heavy lifting for the Lightning last year and should be able to slide into the Flames top 4.
More talk and analysis re: Sarich after confirmation...
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