Monday, October 31, 2005

October Report Card

The Flames began this season with high hopes and expectations swollen by last season's play-off run (and newly acquired critical acclaim). One goal shy of the cup + offseason acquisitions including Hamrlik, Amonte, McCarty and Langkow seemed to signal a revolution in Flames fortunes. Finally fans of the once beleaguered franchise could anticipate each game with delight rather than trepidation (and, often, apathy born of repeated failure)...

Unfortunately all of that promise and hype was not borne out by the October version of the Calgary Flames. A number of factors could be blamed for Calgary's 4-7-2 start, including (but not limited to):

- 13 Players were inactive during the lock-out.
- Wealth of new players in the line-up (Wiemer, McCarty, Phaneuf, Hamrlik, Ritchie, Amonte, Langkow, and recently, Marchment).
- Loss of players to trade/free agency and injury (Conroy, Saprykin, Gauthier, Gelinas, Nieminen, Regehr, Lombardi).
- 9 of 13 games on the road, including 3 opposition home openers to start the season.
- Iginla's typical slow start.
- Acclimation to new NHL rules plus rigid enforement of obstruction.

Of course, some of these issues are realities for the other teams in the NHL that are not struggling right now...new faces+new rules have not harmed the 11-1 Detroit Red Wings, for instance.

Whatever the cause for the Flames slow start, be it lack of chemistry or just a plain, old-fashioned slump, this past month's misfortunes have set-up November as a potential "make-or-break" month, given that Calgary will enjoy 10 home games coming up (as opposed to October's 3). If the Flames can't put together an above .500 string over the course of November, they may dig a hole too deep to recover from come April.

That said, here's some general grading of the Flames so far:

Defense - Hamrlik, Phaneuf, Warrener, Ference, Montador, Marchment, Regehr (IR)...(B-)

This grade would probably be higher if:
- The team didn't lose outrageously to Minnesota, Detroit and Colorado in the first 4 games.
- Ference and Montador actually played NHL caliber defense.
- Regehr wasn't injured.

That said, Calgary's defense has been very solid recently. Even without Regehr and frequent brain cramps from the likes of Ference, Calgary has been holding their opponents to 2 goals and under more often than not. Over the first 13 games, Calgary has allowed 39 GA, an average of 3 per game. Keep in mind that this stat is grossly skewed by the Flames first few embarassing losses to the Wild (6GA), the Wings (6GA) and the Avs (7GA). Even with those horrible efforts, the Flames sit 14th overall in GA and continue to climb the rankings in this department. With the addition of Regher and continued solid play of Kiprusoff, the Flames should have more than adequate defense for November and beyond.

Offense - Amonte, Iginla, Langkow, Kobasew, Reinprecht, Lombardi (IR), Donovan, etc...(D).

Offense was the main culprit in the Flames most recent string of futility. With some goal scoring, the Flames could have pulled out victories in San Jose, Phoenix (twice) and Dallas (twice). As a symptom of the team's offensive woes, Calgary is (I think) the only club in the league that has failed to score more than 3 goals in a game. Currently, only Columbus and Washington have scored less goals than the Flames and both teams have played less games.

This puzzling ineptitude can't be explained by a lack of personnel...Iginla, Amonte and Langkow are all proven 20+ goal scorers (40+ in Iginla's case). Calgary also has a healthy Reinprecht, Kobasew teetering on the brink of a break-out (thanks to his AHL performance last year) as well as 10-15 goal-getters in Donovan, Simon and McCarty. Toss in the additions of Hamrlik and Phaneuf on the point (not to mention the potential of Leopold) and the Flames should be (technically) at least a middle-of-the-pack offensive squad.

What, how and why are all questions right now. Iginla has a 6 game point streak and goals in three straight games, at least. However:
- Amonte has disappointed thus far with only 3 goals. Ditto for Langkow.
- Jordan Leopold, he of the team leading defenseman points from last season, hasn't garnered a goal or assist in 13 games (despite frequently leading the team in minutes played).
- Secondary scoring from players like Donovan and Nilson is non-existant. One goal between them.
- Players with significant 1st and 2nd line minutes aren't contributing regularly (Simon 2 goals, Rhino 2 goals, Kobasew 5 points)...heck, Andrew Ference, our 6th d-man, has more points (6) than any of the 3 forwards mentioned there. Simply not acceptable.

By all indications, Calgary is ready to turn the corner in this department. Judging by the last few games, the Flames are generating chances and just not converting on them when they occur. Also, it is hard to imagine that the assorted combined talent on this team, lead by a surging Iginla, can possibly struggle to this degree for much longer. There are too many good players and too much coaching ability to allow for this power-outtage to continue. While I hardly expect Calgary to lead the league in GF by the end of the season, it's not too much to ask or expect this team to be in the top 16 in the league. If November doesn't change the Flame's offensive fortunes, expect a trade for a creative center or left winger by months end...

Goaltending - Kiprusoff, Sauve...(B+)

Aside from the opening road-trip, excellent. Kipper has lowered his GAA to 2.81 and has been the reason for a number of Calgary's few victories. Sauve has only played once, but was apparently strong in his single appearance, even though he lost. Not an area of concern and certainly not the reason for Calgary's current record.

What lies ahead for the Flames? 10 home games, a return of the Stalwart Robyn Regehr and a desperate need to score some goals and win some games. Should November transpire in similar fashion to October, the Flames faithful will not have to strain to hear the mocking laughter echoing out of Vancouver...which is hardly anything I care to imagine right now...

(Calgary stats and such pilfered from here.)