The GM says the toughest calls he'll have to make this summer aren't necessarily tied to a list of unrestricted free agents that includes Kristian Huselius, Owen Nolan, Stephane Yelle, Jim Vandermeer, David Hale and Curtis Joseph.
"Those aren't the tough decisions," said Sutter. "It's the guys already under contract who aren't earning what they're making. There's a number of those guys that, based on their careers, they're third- and fourth-line guys. Well, every one of our forwards in Quad Cities (the Flames' top farm club) can play on our third and fourth lines."
- Calgary Herald via Matt.
The Black Hole
During the slow summer months last off-season I put together a player typology post that detailed the four basic kinds of forwards available in the NHL: the Big guns, the soft comp eaters, the quellers and the even-stevens. I neglected to include a fifth, rather prevalent type: the lead weights. It is this latter kind of player that dominated the bottom of the Flames roster this year. And it's those guys Sutter is implicating above.
As such, allow me to present the black hole: Wayne Primeau, Marcus Nilson, Eric Godard, Stephane Yelle, Matthew Lombardi, David Moss, Mark Smith, Eric Nystrom and Dustin Boyd all took turns at the end of the rotation. Five of those players were gross liabilities at even-strength (Primeau, Godard, Smith, Nystrom, Boyd) to varying degrees and three of the remaining four players couldn't score with a two-four of gin at the prom (Nilson, Yelle, Moss). Matthew Lombardi was the only player of the 9 (!) mentioned that managed more than 10 goals or 30 points. He spent a lot of time skating with Primeau, Yelle, Nystrom and Boyd so his underlying numbers took a beating.
Most teams in the NHL have a couple players they have to hide at ES. They are your scrappers (Godard), your projects (Nystrom) and your raw rookies (Boyd). Ideally, a club has 3 or less of these guys in the line-up at any one time. Any more, and sheltering them becomes a significant chore.
There were many times during the regular season that the Flames had all five of the lead weights listed above (Primeau et al) dressed at the same time. Moss was injured a lot and Nilson spent most of the season as Keenan's pressbox punching bag, meaning one of Yelle or Lombardi was often tasked with trying to keep the shaky raft (sporting a couple of leaks and 5 anchors) afloat.
The result? Two de facto "4th lines", each with no chance of out-scoring the opposition and with little chance of playing them to evens.
The lack of an effective third unit was felt at the top of the roster as well, particularly by the Tanguay/Conroy/Nolan combination. The Flames "2nd line" was given the unenviable assignment of shutting down the other team's big guns WHILE providing some secondary offense behind the Iggy line. Tanguay et al. faced the toughest competition on the team with the obvious effect being a dampening of their offensive stats. And Conroy/Nolan are hardly scoring wizards in the first place.
When your secondary scoring unit is also your shut-down unit because everyone else below them can't be trusted to do either well -- you're in trouble. That the Flames were slightly above average this year in terms of ES scoring (145 GF, 12th) has everything to do with Jarome Iginla (65 ESP, 3rd, only Flame in the top 30) and Dion Phaneuf (26 ES points, 6th among defensemen) and concurrently suggests how good the team could have been with a few more competent supporting pieces.
Chasing Leopold
Only a few short seasons ago the Flames blueline was considered one of the best in the league. Think back to 05-06. Leopold, Regehr, Ference, Warrener, Phaneuf and Hamrlik were the top 6 defenders that year. Richie Regehr and Mark Giordano each got a cup of coffee that year as well.
This season? Regehr, Sarich, Phaneuf, Eriksson, Aucoin, Hale and Warrener (and Vandermeer) was the blueline squadron, with half of them doing favorable impressions of the key-stone cops on most nights. All for a bigger price-tag, naturally.
The defense was arguably the weakest part of the club this year. Like the forwards, the bottom of the rotation was littered with guys that either couldn't outplay the opposition no matter how soft it was (Warrener, Hale, Eriksson) or were poor value (Aucoin) or both (Warrener, Eriksson). And, like the forwards, there were many nights when the difference makers (Regehr, Phaneuf, Sarich) couldn't make up for their lackluster brethren.
The back-end's degradation since the onset of his tenure here is probably the strongest indictment of Sutter's management up till now. What was once young, effective and cheap has become older, ineffective and expensive.
Part of that has to do with the premium put on defenders since the lock-out. Ed Jovonovski is scheduled to make $6.5M next year for example. The escalating salary cap and high demand for blueliners likely ensured an inexorable increase in costs for that category of player.
Of course, the problem isn't that the Flames defense corps is high-priced relative to itself two seasons ago. Rather, the problem lies in the fact that it's expensive when compared to other clubs in the league right now; all of whom were/are subject to the same market forces as Calgary. Only 7 clubs had pricier bluelines than the Flames this season (Tor, Ana, Bos, Det, Edm, Mtl, Phi) and that was due almost entirely to Phaneuf playing under an entry level contract. With his and Regehr's raises kicking in next season (up to 6.5M and 4M respectively), the team is scheduled to have the heaviest back-end, cash and cap wise, in the entire NHL come September. Keep in mind, The approximate cap-value (21.95M) as it stands right now does not include replacements for Hale or Vandermeer , both of whom are set to become free agents July 1.
That figure would be forgivable if the defense had the performance and results to match it's big price tag. But, as immobile and bad with the puck as they were this year, there's a very real chance they'll be even worse next season: Eriksson, Aucoin and Warrener are all good bets to take a step or two backwards. Regehr and Sarich are probably at their ceilings now. Only Phaneuf has room and opportunity for real improvement. While there's talk in the media of coaxing Mark Giordano back into the fold and re-signing Vandermeer, their additions will only be beneficial if they occur in concert with a couple of deletions (Im looking at you Rhett and Bubba). The back-end not only has to get better in terms of skill and results going forward, it simultaneously has to get more efficient (ie: cheaper) as well. That's a fairly tall order, and one potentially beyond Sutter if we're to judge him based on his past efforts. When I consider the task at hand it invariably conjures that classic Bullwinkle line:
"Hey Rocky! Watch me pull a rabbit outta my hat!"
The Decline
I recently identified the three great tragedies of the Flames middling results from the last couple of seasons:
- Wasting back-to-back MVP type performances from Iginla.
- Frittering away Phaneuf's high value entry-level contract.
- Frittering away Kipper's high value median-level contract.
The final point may be the most tragic considering Kipper's downward trend since becoming a Flame: his yearly averaged SV% has steadily decreased since 03-04, culminating in this seasons throughly average .906 number. Whereas Phaneuf and Iginla will continue to deliver value for their contracts, Kipper is poised to become another expensive, un-tradable anchor should his slide into mediocrity continue. His just-okay results this year were a significant contributor to the teams just-okay results. If the unflappable Fin doesn't experience a bit of renaissance in 08-09, it may not matter what else Sutter does this summer - his team will be doomed to remain at the edges of play-off contention.
Wednesday, April 30, 2008
Monday, April 28, 2008
Flames Season Review - Part One.
I've decided to separate the season review into a couple of parts. This first post is centered on explicating the general processes that informed the Flames year, largely from the management perspective. In the second part, I'll concentrate on the particular manifestations of managements efforts in the Flames roster.
The best way to start off may be to establish that the 07-08 Calgary Flames weren't a bad team. They contended for the NW title for awhile in mid-season. They scored a couple more goals than they gave up. And they made the play-offs despite playing in a tough division and competitive conference.
The best way to continue may be to be to acknowledge that the 07-08 Calgary Flames weren't a good team either. They had the second worst GD of any WC play-off squad. They didn't even have average special teams. And they squeaked into the play-offs by the hairs of their chiny-chin-chin.
One of Darryl Sutter's favorite hobbies when granting interviews is to glibly dismiss the bleating of the press or fanbase as short-sighted or ill-informed. This year, as the club stumbled down the stretch and the possibility of missing the play-offs loomed large in March, Sutter answered the faithful's anxiety by peddling "parity": the team's tenuous grasp on a play-off position was attributed to the league's increasingly large middle class.
It's seems a legitimate argument on the face of it. Thanks to three-point games and the salary cap's influence on the concentration of talent, the difference between the "haves" and "have nots" has indeed been eroded since the lock-out. For exmaple, the Minnesota Wild won the NW Division with 98 points this year. The Canucks, who were a mere 10 points back, placed last. The difference between the two teams goal differentials was 7.
Even with that in mind, When I first heard the Sutter interview in March his claim struck me as a bit of ass-covering sophistry. "Okay is not okay" was one of his famous lines from the previous off-season. "Okay is simply inevitable" seemed to be the new Franchise motto come the end the regular season, however.
I guess the question is: is just okay...okay? Should fans and pundits be adjusting their expectations for the Flames given the landscape of the "new NHL"?
Bull-shit I say. I have a few weeks between me and that Sutter interview and it still strikes me as utter bullshit. The increased parity in the league hasn't eliminated elite teams; it doesn't ensure mediocrity across the board, nor does it explain the Flames second straight season as first-round fodder. The Calgary Flames have elite players at every level of their roster. Iginla, Tanguay, Regehr, Phaneuf, Kiprusoff. Two of those guys are top 10 forwards in terms of ES production, another 2 are top 10 defensemen (albeit in different ways) and Kipper is two years removed from a Vezina trophy. This isn't the foundation of a middling squad. This is a talent core Sutter has gone to pains to lock-up long-term, and for good reason - most GMs would kill for it.
Let's look at it another way. The Nashville Predators, who finished in 8th place, just behind Calgary, sold off a bunch of their difference makers last year. They dealt their #1 goalie, their #1 defensemen, a couple of younger pieces (Hartnell, Upshall) and lost Forsberg and Kariya in the summer. Due to ownership and budgetary concerns, the free agent signings and roster expenses were scaled back. Nashville ended up with a $36M team - a full 12M less than Sutter's roster. They muddled along with Dan Ellis and Chris Mason in net. Dan Hamhuis was their #1 defenseman and Shea Weber was injured half the year. Jason Arnott and JP Dumont were two thirds of their #1 line (not exactly beasts at taking on the tough competition) and Mike Sullivan didn't play a game thanks to his back issues...
Nashville ended the season with 3 less points than the Flames, and 1 less win. The team's goal differentials were virtually identical (+1, +2). Granted, the Predators played in the relatively weaker Central Division...but they also had less difference makers at key positions, a vastly cheaper roster and more injuries to significant pieces.
To my eye, the issue isn't simply "achieving a moderate level of success" that can be reasonably expected of most teams. The Flames aren't most teams. More accurately, they don't have to be. They don't have the budgetary concerns of a Nashville or Phoenix. They have an enviable core of talent - arguably superior than a number of clubs that sit above them in the standings (and are still playing in the post-season). The apparent "win-now" attitude of Sutter and management the last two seasons was not ill-advised given the quality of core players on hand. Ill-executed, perhaps. But sensible considering where guys like Kipper, Iginla, Regehr and Tanguay were (are) in their careers.
Ironically, it's been Sutter's flavor of "go for it" that has sunk the team into mediocrity since 03/04, and painted the franchise into the cap-strapped corner it's in now. His tendency to fill roster spots with known commodities - ex-Sutterites and veterans - has bloated the roster's budget and bled the team of cheap talent. As Darryl has gone about locking up key pieces to long-terms deals and exponentially more expensive contract extensions, he's also surrounded them with slowing vets (Nilson, Yelle, Primeau, Eriksson, Aucoin, Amonte) and dubious reclamation projects (Zyuzin, Friesen), many of whom for multi-year, multi-million dollar deals. The results, both this season and last, were two-fold:
- A cap inefficient roster - At various points this year, the Flames had Rhett Warrener (2.35M), Marcus Nilson (1M), Wayne Primeau (1.4M) and Anders Eriksson (1.5M) sitting in the press-box as healthy scratches. That's 6.25M (or difference-maker money) worth of dead-weight on any given night.And I didn't include 4M worth of Adrian Aucoin playing in the 3rd pairing, or guys like Smith (400k) or Godard (400k) skating around pointlessly. All of the bad money listed in the first sentence carries forward to next season, by the way.
- A relatively hostile development environment - The preponderance of million dollar vets makes for a crowded roster. Rookies and prospects not named "Dion Phaneuf" need some at bats to establish themselves as NHL caliber players. They require roster spots and time on the ice to develop. Spot duty on the 4th line with Godard or banishment to the press-box after a rough game - if you make the team at all of course - doesn't cut it. Mark Giordano outplayed a couple of vets (Zyuzin, Hale...Warrener arguably) last season on an already crowded blueline, despite being an undrafted freshman. Sutter, naturally, responded by offering him a nominal two-way deal and then signing useless tit Anders Eriksson to a one-way, multi-year, multi-million dollar contract in a sudden fit of "my cock is bigger than yours" when Gio understandably balked. Getting a fringe player like Eriksson for that long and for that kind of cash is questionable management on it's own. Losing a cheap, young, relatively effective replacement level player as a result is that much worse.
Even if the kids aren't any better than the incumbent vets initially, they have the advantages of being cheaper and potentially improving. Mark Giordano at 800k > Eriksson at 1.5M, even if their performance levels are comparable for the season, due in part to the cap-savings and in part to the potential development and progression of the youngster going forward. Eriksson at 1.5M and 30+ years old is, at best, a diminishing asset. You pay for the experience but the BEST he can do is play up to the value of his contract. Rookies are riskier in terms of the range and variance of their performance, but the gamble is accompanied by the attendant reward of a guy out-performing his salary. Which is gold in a capped environment.
I've heard arguments that Sutter has been constrained by the Flames rather lackluster collection of young talent during his reign. To some degree, that's true. Calgary's prospect cupboard was pretty bare when Sutter ascended to office in 04. He's spent time gathering draft picks and establishing a capable farm system the last 4 or 5 years. And good on him. But the fact that the Flames don't have a lot of sure-fire NHLers makes the loss of guys like Giordano and Taratukhin that much more egregious since the basic tenants of any given marketplace are: low supply/high demand. As such, if you don't have a great deal of high quality prospects, you should probably protect and covet the ones you DO have. Insisting your lone NHL ready defensive prospect agree to a two-way deal, for example, is a silly hill to die on.
Of course, suppressing the kids hasn't been Sutter's lone folly. That would be forgivable if he was loading up on good value vets in the kids stead. But he hasn't done that either. I think part of the reason Owen Nolan has been so favorably received this year is because he looked positively herculean when compared to many of Sutter's other recent acquisitions (Amonte, Friesen, Eriksson, Zyuzin, McCarty, Eriksson, Aucoin, Primeau, Lundmark, Boucher, Leclerc). Look at that list again. That's a whole lot of SUCK that's passed through here the last couple of years and a great deal of it wasn't (isn't) cheap. In the same time frame, the Flames have lost guys like Commodore, Lydman, Reinprecht, Kobasew, Ference, Gelinas, Donovan and the aforementioned defectors (Gio, Taratukhin) for little or nothing. And none of them are or were prohibitively expensive (Lydman and Gelinas are the priciest at about 2.8M each).
Sutter has done a great job of identifying and locking up the core big boys during his time here. Alternatively, he's done a fairly terrible job of identifying and installing good-value guys at the roster's edges. Which is why the results have been so average the last few years. There's been a couple decent contracts (Huselius @ 1.4, Lombardi @ 1.817 and Langkow @ 2.4), but not enough to overcome the sheer volume of bad-value guys. It's why the organization is at the precipice of it's most difficult and contentious off-season in Sutter's time here: a lot of the good value contracts go away and a lot of the dead-weight needs to be purged. The former is a guarantee to happen. The latter will require a small miracle.
The best way to start off may be to establish that the 07-08 Calgary Flames weren't a bad team. They contended for the NW title for awhile in mid-season. They scored a couple more goals than they gave up. And they made the play-offs despite playing in a tough division and competitive conference.
The best way to continue may be to be to acknowledge that the 07-08 Calgary Flames weren't a good team either. They had the second worst GD of any WC play-off squad. They didn't even have average special teams. And they squeaked into the play-offs by the hairs of their chiny-chin-chin.
One of Darryl Sutter's favorite hobbies when granting interviews is to glibly dismiss the bleating of the press or fanbase as short-sighted or ill-informed. This year, as the club stumbled down the stretch and the possibility of missing the play-offs loomed large in March, Sutter answered the faithful's anxiety by peddling "parity": the team's tenuous grasp on a play-off position was attributed to the league's increasingly large middle class.
It's seems a legitimate argument on the face of it. Thanks to three-point games and the salary cap's influence on the concentration of talent, the difference between the "haves" and "have nots" has indeed been eroded since the lock-out. For exmaple, the Minnesota Wild won the NW Division with 98 points this year. The Canucks, who were a mere 10 points back, placed last. The difference between the two teams goal differentials was 7.
Even with that in mind, When I first heard the Sutter interview in March his claim struck me as a bit of ass-covering sophistry. "Okay is not okay" was one of his famous lines from the previous off-season. "Okay is simply inevitable" seemed to be the new Franchise motto come the end the regular season, however.
I guess the question is: is just okay...okay? Should fans and pundits be adjusting their expectations for the Flames given the landscape of the "new NHL"?
Bull-shit I say. I have a few weeks between me and that Sutter interview and it still strikes me as utter bullshit. The increased parity in the league hasn't eliminated elite teams; it doesn't ensure mediocrity across the board, nor does it explain the Flames second straight season as first-round fodder. The Calgary Flames have elite players at every level of their roster. Iginla, Tanguay, Regehr, Phaneuf, Kiprusoff. Two of those guys are top 10 forwards in terms of ES production, another 2 are top 10 defensemen (albeit in different ways) and Kipper is two years removed from a Vezina trophy. This isn't the foundation of a middling squad. This is a talent core Sutter has gone to pains to lock-up long-term, and for good reason - most GMs would kill for it.
Let's look at it another way. The Nashville Predators, who finished in 8th place, just behind Calgary, sold off a bunch of their difference makers last year. They dealt their #1 goalie, their #1 defensemen, a couple of younger pieces (Hartnell, Upshall) and lost Forsberg and Kariya in the summer. Due to ownership and budgetary concerns, the free agent signings and roster expenses were scaled back. Nashville ended up with a $36M team - a full 12M less than Sutter's roster. They muddled along with Dan Ellis and Chris Mason in net. Dan Hamhuis was their #1 defenseman and Shea Weber was injured half the year. Jason Arnott and JP Dumont were two thirds of their #1 line (not exactly beasts at taking on the tough competition) and Mike Sullivan didn't play a game thanks to his back issues...
Nashville ended the season with 3 less points than the Flames, and 1 less win. The team's goal differentials were virtually identical (+1, +2). Granted, the Predators played in the relatively weaker Central Division...but they also had less difference makers at key positions, a vastly cheaper roster and more injuries to significant pieces.
To my eye, the issue isn't simply "achieving a moderate level of success" that can be reasonably expected of most teams. The Flames aren't most teams. More accurately, they don't have to be. They don't have the budgetary concerns of a Nashville or Phoenix. They have an enviable core of talent - arguably superior than a number of clubs that sit above them in the standings (and are still playing in the post-season). The apparent "win-now" attitude of Sutter and management the last two seasons was not ill-advised given the quality of core players on hand. Ill-executed, perhaps. But sensible considering where guys like Kipper, Iginla, Regehr and Tanguay were (are) in their careers.
Ironically, it's been Sutter's flavor of "go for it" that has sunk the team into mediocrity since 03/04, and painted the franchise into the cap-strapped corner it's in now. His tendency to fill roster spots with known commodities - ex-Sutterites and veterans - has bloated the roster's budget and bled the team of cheap talent. As Darryl has gone about locking up key pieces to long-terms deals and exponentially more expensive contract extensions, he's also surrounded them with slowing vets (Nilson, Yelle, Primeau, Eriksson, Aucoin, Amonte) and dubious reclamation projects (Zyuzin, Friesen), many of whom for multi-year, multi-million dollar deals. The results, both this season and last, were two-fold:
- A cap inefficient roster - At various points this year, the Flames had Rhett Warrener (2.35M), Marcus Nilson (1M), Wayne Primeau (1.4M) and Anders Eriksson (1.5M) sitting in the press-box as healthy scratches. That's 6.25M (or difference-maker money) worth of dead-weight on any given night.And I didn't include 4M worth of Adrian Aucoin playing in the 3rd pairing, or guys like Smith (400k) or Godard (400k) skating around pointlessly. All of the bad money listed in the first sentence carries forward to next season, by the way.
- A relatively hostile development environment - The preponderance of million dollar vets makes for a crowded roster. Rookies and prospects not named "Dion Phaneuf" need some at bats to establish themselves as NHL caliber players. They require roster spots and time on the ice to develop. Spot duty on the 4th line with Godard or banishment to the press-box after a rough game - if you make the team at all of course - doesn't cut it. Mark Giordano outplayed a couple of vets (Zyuzin, Hale...Warrener arguably) last season on an already crowded blueline, despite being an undrafted freshman. Sutter, naturally, responded by offering him a nominal two-way deal and then signing useless tit Anders Eriksson to a one-way, multi-year, multi-million dollar contract in a sudden fit of "my cock is bigger than yours" when Gio understandably balked. Getting a fringe player like Eriksson for that long and for that kind of cash is questionable management on it's own. Losing a cheap, young, relatively effective replacement level player as a result is that much worse.
Even if the kids aren't any better than the incumbent vets initially, they have the advantages of being cheaper and potentially improving. Mark Giordano at 800k > Eriksson at 1.5M, even if their performance levels are comparable for the season, due in part to the cap-savings and in part to the potential development and progression of the youngster going forward. Eriksson at 1.5M and 30+ years old is, at best, a diminishing asset. You pay for the experience but the BEST he can do is play up to the value of his contract. Rookies are riskier in terms of the range and variance of their performance, but the gamble is accompanied by the attendant reward of a guy out-performing his salary. Which is gold in a capped environment.
I've heard arguments that Sutter has been constrained by the Flames rather lackluster collection of young talent during his reign. To some degree, that's true. Calgary's prospect cupboard was pretty bare when Sutter ascended to office in 04. He's spent time gathering draft picks and establishing a capable farm system the last 4 or 5 years. And good on him. But the fact that the Flames don't have a lot of sure-fire NHLers makes the loss of guys like Giordano and Taratukhin that much more egregious since the basic tenants of any given marketplace are: low supply/high demand. As such, if you don't have a great deal of high quality prospects, you should probably protect and covet the ones you DO have. Insisting your lone NHL ready defensive prospect agree to a two-way deal, for example, is a silly hill to die on.
Of course, suppressing the kids hasn't been Sutter's lone folly. That would be forgivable if he was loading up on good value vets in the kids stead. But he hasn't done that either. I think part of the reason Owen Nolan has been so favorably received this year is because he looked positively herculean when compared to many of Sutter's other recent acquisitions (Amonte, Friesen, Eriksson, Zyuzin, McCarty, Eriksson, Aucoin, Primeau, Lundmark, Boucher, Leclerc). Look at that list again. That's a whole lot of SUCK that's passed through here the last couple of years and a great deal of it wasn't (isn't) cheap. In the same time frame, the Flames have lost guys like Commodore, Lydman, Reinprecht, Kobasew, Ference, Gelinas, Donovan and the aforementioned defectors (Gio, Taratukhin) for little or nothing. And none of them are or were prohibitively expensive (Lydman and Gelinas are the priciest at about 2.8M each).
Sutter has done a great job of identifying and locking up the core big boys during his time here. Alternatively, he's done a fairly terrible job of identifying and installing good-value guys at the roster's edges. Which is why the results have been so average the last few years. There's been a couple decent contracts (Huselius @ 1.4, Lombardi @ 1.817 and Langkow @ 2.4), but not enough to overcome the sheer volume of bad-value guys. It's why the organization is at the precipice of it's most difficult and contentious off-season in Sutter's time here: a lot of the good value contracts go away and a lot of the dead-weight needs to be purged. The former is a guarantee to happen. The latter will require a small miracle.
Wednesday, April 23, 2008
Saving the Worst for Last
It was fun while it lasted, wasn't it? Right up until that final performance I guess.
Appropriately, all the problems that made the Flames an average team during the regular season were in full view last night. The immobile defense corps. The poor puck-distribution. The bad transition game. The lack of any kind of offensive push with Iginla off the ice. Mediocre goaltending. Losing the special teams battle. A veritable rogues gallery of the team's warts.
But first, let's get this out of the way: the Sharks played an absolute whale of game yesterday. They pressured the Flame's lumbering defense whenever they had the puck and turned the neutral zone into The Nightmarish Place of Inevitable Turn-overs. After SJS took the lead in the 2nd period, they executed a nearly perfect defensive game, excepting Primeau's fluke goal. They were, by far, the better team last night and deserve to move on. Full credit to them.
And now back to your regularly scheduled bitching --
Everything the Flames did well to stretch the series to a seventh game seemingly went out the window last night. The team's glaring weaknesses (*ahem* Eriksson) finally overwhelmed whatever ineffable force was holding them at bay the last couple of games. I think that goes back to Matt's screed on consistency in sports in general (and hockey in particular): Flames were good enough to bring it sometimes, but not all the time. In short, and to be perfectly glib about it - talent will out. And it finally did last night. Which is why we play 7 games I guess.
Probably a lot is going to be made of Keenan yanking Kipper after the 4th goal. From my perspective, the loss was a foregone conclusion at that point and it wouldn't have mattered what Keenan did from then on. His options were pretty limited - pull Kipper, call a time-out - and neither was going to make much of an impact. The team was being out-shot 3:1 at that point in the game and the Franchise goalie had allowed 4 goals mid-way through the second period. The Fat Lady was in costume and already warming up by the time Kipper sat down.
For what it's worth, I think Keenan did as much as can be expected with this roster. I certainly didn't agree with all of his moves this year - Godard in the line-up, Eriksson in the top 4, beating up on Juice down the stretch - but at least he managed to evoke something more than the limp whimper we saw from the club last April. I did like Keenan's active bench management during the series although there were times he even out-smarted himself. What Im getting at I guess is: I dont think Keenan was part of the problem like Nervous Jimmy was last year. I wouldn't be against Iron Mike returning as the Flames coach next year.
I'm going to hold off on the season's postmortem for now. Allow for some time to mourn. There's a lot to go over, but also a lot of time to go over it. I'll let the Furies rest for now.
Tuesday, April 22, 2008
Game 7 Preview - serious this time
It's down to a coin-flip. As noted over at Inside the Flames recently, this has been the most evenly matched series in the first round. Through the first six games, both teams have scored the same amount of goals, won the same amount of games, have had the same GD in their victories. Hell, the Flames and Sharks both have 9 GF at ES and 4GF at 5on4!
Perfectly symmetrical. Like boxing your reflection. And considering where I was before the series began, I couldn't really ask for much more than this -- an even chance to advance.
Calgary played a near perfect game on Sunday. They limited the Sharks chances, out-shot and out-hit them and stayed out of the penalty box. It would have been nice to see Alex Tanguay bury that golden opportunity in the first period so he shake that monkey he's been carrying the last week or so. Alas...
Wasn't it nice to have a functional fourth line (for the first time in recent memory) last game? My anonymous phone threats and letter bombs obviously got through to Keenan and he sat Godard in favor of a 7-d rotation. The resultant "enegry" line of Primeau, Moss and Nystrom was generally effective: they didn't spend inordinate amounts of time trapped in their own zone and actually generated some havoc for the Sharks at the other end. Hell, there was even a scoring chance or two squeezed in there, which is pure gravy when it comes to the bottom of the roster. Particularly the bottom of the Flames roster.
An ancillary benefit of playing all 12 forwards was a more even distribution of ice-time across the forwards ranks - Moss, Nyzerman and Primeau all played between 8 and 10 minutes - meaning a less beat-up and worn out Jarome Iginla for tonight's contest. Good news for certain.
The development of a reliable support cast is an encouraging one for me since I tend to take the view that the game and series isn't going to be won by the big guns so much as lost by the secondary players (if that makes any sense). The Flames have some elite talent up front, in the net and even on the back-end. Regehr, Iginla and Kipper are pretty much guaranteed to perform. It's the Eriksson's, Primeaus, Yelles and Aucoins that worry me as a Flames fan. It's the questionable Hale pass or another bad Bubba pinch that may end up making the difference, especially in such a hotly contested and evenly matched series.
The Sharks have ballers too: Thornton, Marleau, Clowe (!?), Nabokov, but they also have similar "issues": Brian Campbell seems to think the spin-o-rama is the best play by default at almost any place on the ice or time in the game. Milan Michalek is so snake bitten he's probably been soliciting teammates to suck out the poison during the intermissions...and Jody Shelly, well...he would lose to Eric Godard in a foot-race (not that Eric would win. They would both somehow lose simultaneously).
So while San Jose fans may be in search of a hero, chances are they'll just be cheering for one less screw-up. Just as I will.
Line-up notes:
I can't imagine Keenan changing anything after the victory on Sunday. Expect Godard and Boyd to sit, with Vandermeer taking spot duty up front and on the back-end. No doubt Wilson will try to get Thornton away from Iginla and Regehr this evening, likely through some crafty double-shifting type shenanigans. I said it above, but it bears repeating...if the Flames support guys can weather that storm and keep the galactic F-ups to a minimum, I like their chances in this game.
Prediction - yeah right.
GO FLAMES!
Perfectly symmetrical. Like boxing your reflection. And considering where I was before the series began, I couldn't really ask for much more than this -- an even chance to advance.
Calgary played a near perfect game on Sunday. They limited the Sharks chances, out-shot and out-hit them and stayed out of the penalty box. It would have been nice to see Alex Tanguay bury that golden opportunity in the first period so he shake that monkey he's been carrying the last week or so. Alas...
Wasn't it nice to have a functional fourth line (for the first time in recent memory) last game? My anonymous phone threats and letter bombs obviously got through to Keenan and he sat Godard in favor of a 7-d rotation. The resultant "enegry" line of Primeau, Moss and Nystrom was generally effective: they didn't spend inordinate amounts of time trapped in their own zone and actually generated some havoc for the Sharks at the other end. Hell, there was even a scoring chance or two squeezed in there, which is pure gravy when it comes to the bottom of the roster. Particularly the bottom of the Flames roster.
An ancillary benefit of playing all 12 forwards was a more even distribution of ice-time across the forwards ranks - Moss, Nyzerman and Primeau all played between 8 and 10 minutes - meaning a less beat-up and worn out Jarome Iginla for tonight's contest. Good news for certain.
The development of a reliable support cast is an encouraging one for me since I tend to take the view that the game and series isn't going to be won by the big guns so much as lost by the secondary players (if that makes any sense). The Flames have some elite talent up front, in the net and even on the back-end. Regehr, Iginla and Kipper are pretty much guaranteed to perform. It's the Eriksson's, Primeaus, Yelles and Aucoins that worry me as a Flames fan. It's the questionable Hale pass or another bad Bubba pinch that may end up making the difference, especially in such a hotly contested and evenly matched series.
The Sharks have ballers too: Thornton, Marleau, Clowe (!?), Nabokov, but they also have similar "issues": Brian Campbell seems to think the spin-o-rama is the best play by default at almost any place on the ice or time in the game. Milan Michalek is so snake bitten he's probably been soliciting teammates to suck out the poison during the intermissions...and Jody Shelly, well...he would lose to Eric Godard in a foot-race (not that Eric would win. They would both somehow lose simultaneously).
So while San Jose fans may be in search of a hero, chances are they'll just be cheering for one less screw-up. Just as I will.
Line-up notes:
I can't imagine Keenan changing anything after the victory on Sunday. Expect Godard and Boyd to sit, with Vandermeer taking spot duty up front and on the back-end. No doubt Wilson will try to get Thornton away from Iginla and Regehr this evening, likely through some crafty double-shifting type shenanigans. I said it above, but it bears repeating...if the Flames support guys can weather that storm and keep the galactic F-ups to a minimum, I like their chances in this game.
Prediction - yeah right.
GO FLAMES!
It's Now or Never. Tonights the Night. Etc.
Inspired by some of the coverage I've heard, seen and read in the MSM recently, I offer you my Say Nothing game 7 preview. Enjoy!
It's been a tough, hard-fought series so far. The Sharks started out by making the most of their chances and winning the battles in the hard areas of the ice. They seemed to have the momentum after their victories in game 2 and game 5 as their much maligned difference makers showed some of the heart and leadership that many have claimed has been missing in years past.
The Flames intangibles and play-off experience have helped them make a series of it, though. Some of the support players have stepped to the fore while Jarome Iginla has shown everyone why he wears the C on his jersey. It's been clear as day that Calgary has wanted it more recently, particular in the game 6 victory.
I think if the boys come out tonight and give 110% they stand a good chance of silencing the critics and advancing to the second round. If all 20 guys can play for the symbol on the front and not the name on the back, they will able to take the home crowd out of the equation and win bragging rights at the end of the day.
However, if the Flames fail to bring it tonight, then it is what is - a tough loss to a superior opponent. Whatever happens, though, Im sure we can all agree afterward: the better team won.
It's been a tough, hard-fought series so far. The Sharks started out by making the most of their chances and winning the battles in the hard areas of the ice. They seemed to have the momentum after their victories in game 2 and game 5 as their much maligned difference makers showed some of the heart and leadership that many have claimed has been missing in years past.
The Flames intangibles and play-off experience have helped them make a series of it, though. Some of the support players have stepped to the fore while Jarome Iginla has shown everyone why he wears the C on his jersey. It's been clear as day that Calgary has wanted it more recently, particular in the game 6 victory.
I think if the boys come out tonight and give 110% they stand a good chance of silencing the critics and advancing to the second round. If all 20 guys can play for the symbol on the front and not the name on the back, they will able to take the home crowd out of the equation and win bragging rights at the end of the day.
However, if the Flames fail to bring it tonight, then it is what is - a tough loss to a superior opponent. Whatever happens, though, Im sure we can all agree afterward: the better team won.
Sunday, April 20, 2008
Game Six Preview - The End?
Even if tonight proves to be the last game of the season for the Flames, I've been relatively impressed with the boys performance in this series. They've matched one of the best teams in the league step-for-step and every single game has been close and hard-fought. It's certainly a far-cry from the limp, embarrassing performance they put in against the Wings last year and provides a modicum of hope heading into the off-season.
Course, my pseudo-eulogy could prove to be a bit pre-mature. Calgary may have lost the last game but they probably out-chanced the Sharks and were the better team on the ice aside from a few (but crucial) brain cramps. They have a good chance to win this game - and potentially the series - if they can keep it up.
Some of the Flames difference makers have been full value the last few nights. Jarome Iginla has proven to be the best player on both teams so far and his continued excellence may push the Flames over the top in the end. Dion Phaneuf has had some hiccups in his own end, but is still one of the league leaders in terms of scoring from the back-end and looks 500X times better than he has in the play-offs previously. After a rough first game, Robyn Regehr and Cory Sarich have been bloody fierce in their own end of the ice. And Matthew Lombardi, while still pointless, continues to be a significant presence in the defensive zone and on the PP. He's also generated a number of quality chances in the Sharks end and his 0 in the P column is more due to Nabokov or the offensive ineptitude of his line-mates than his own failings.
Since this may be my last chance to this, here's what I'd do if I were Keenan tonight:
Forwards:
Tanguay-Conroy-Iginla
Match this trio with the Thornton line. Sub in Lombardi if Conroy continues to struggle. We've seen previously that Iginla/Tanguay can out-play Thornton et al at ES. Keenan should therefore exploit this match-up on home ice.
Huselius-Langkow-Nolan
Play these guys against softer competition as much as possible. I still think Juice can do damage if managed properly.
Yelle-Conroy/Lombardi-Moss
Match them against Marleau's line at ES, depending on where he lands in the Sharks roster (ie: away from Thorton). Their mandate should be to spend as much time in the offensive zone as possible and limit chances against.
Nilson-Boyd-Primeau
Sit Nystrom and Godard, who are craters at ES, and sub in Boyd who can at least do something in the offensive end and on the PP. Reserve them for the soft underbelly and occassionally replace Iginla for Primeau. Boyd+Iggy against the Sharks 4th line might yield some quality chances now and then. Otherwise the regular trio including Nilson and Primeau shouldn't be as big a liability as the previous Godard-led combination(s).
Defensemen:
Sarich-Regehr
DUH!
Phaneuf-Vandermeer
Ideally, Vandy isn't top-4 guy and he had a rough night in game 5, but h still seems to be the best option to skate with Dion.
Aucoin-Hale
Aucoin has looked pretty awful lately. His lack of speed and agility have been gleefully exploited by some of the Sharks speedier players. Hale was sat in favor of Eriksson last game, but I still prefer him to the bumbling boobery of Bubba.
Feel free to add your own combos in the comments.
Prediction - a nerve-wracking OT ending.
Go Flames!
Course, my pseudo-eulogy could prove to be a bit pre-mature. Calgary may have lost the last game but they probably out-chanced the Sharks and were the better team on the ice aside from a few (but crucial) brain cramps. They have a good chance to win this game - and potentially the series - if they can keep it up.
Some of the Flames difference makers have been full value the last few nights. Jarome Iginla has proven to be the best player on both teams so far and his continued excellence may push the Flames over the top in the end. Dion Phaneuf has had some hiccups in his own end, but is still one of the league leaders in terms of scoring from the back-end and looks 500X times better than he has in the play-offs previously. After a rough first game, Robyn Regehr and Cory Sarich have been bloody fierce in their own end of the ice. And Matthew Lombardi, while still pointless, continues to be a significant presence in the defensive zone and on the PP. He's also generated a number of quality chances in the Sharks end and his 0 in the P column is more due to Nabokov or the offensive ineptitude of his line-mates than his own failings.
Since this may be my last chance to this, here's what I'd do if I were Keenan tonight:
Forwards:
Tanguay-Conroy-Iginla
Match this trio with the Thornton line. Sub in Lombardi if Conroy continues to struggle. We've seen previously that Iginla/Tanguay can out-play Thornton et al at ES. Keenan should therefore exploit this match-up on home ice.
Huselius-Langkow-Nolan
Play these guys against softer competition as much as possible. I still think Juice can do damage if managed properly.
Yelle-Conroy/Lombardi-Moss
Match them against Marleau's line at ES, depending on where he lands in the Sharks roster (ie: away from Thorton). Their mandate should be to spend as much time in the offensive zone as possible and limit chances against.
Nilson-Boyd-Primeau
Sit Nystrom and Godard, who are craters at ES, and sub in Boyd who can at least do something in the offensive end and on the PP. Reserve them for the soft underbelly and occassionally replace Iginla for Primeau. Boyd+Iggy against the Sharks 4th line might yield some quality chances now and then. Otherwise the regular trio including Nilson and Primeau shouldn't be as big a liability as the previous Godard-led combination(s).
Defensemen:
Sarich-Regehr
DUH!
Phaneuf-Vandermeer
Ideally, Vandy isn't top-4 guy and he had a rough night in game 5, but h still seems to be the best option to skate with Dion.
Aucoin-Hale
Aucoin has looked pretty awful lately. His lack of speed and agility have been gleefully exploited by some of the Sharks speedier players. Hale was sat in favor of Eriksson last game, but I still prefer him to the bumbling boobery of Bubba.
Feel free to add your own combos in the comments.
Prediction - a nerve-wracking OT ending.
Go Flames!
Thursday, April 17, 2008
Game 5 Preview - I've discovered a use for enforcers
The Calgary Flames got 10 shots on net in game 4. Ten. That's 5 less than the previous franchise low for a play-off game. Of course, they also managed to put 13 pucks wide and have another 15 blocked. That means Nabby was forced to make a play on less than one third (10/38) of the total shots the Flames directed at the net. In contrast, the Sharks got 32 of a possible 57 shots on Kipper (56%), thus the giant discrepancy.
Perhaps what's most galling is the shot count isn't indicative of the play. San Jose certainly took over at the end of the third, but the Flames had a fair share of opportunities themselves - The Conroy 2on1, the Iggy-Juice-Langkow 3on1, 4 different PPs. Here's the problem, though: the Flames generated just a single shot from those 3 scenarios. One! Normally you're doing something wrong if you only get a lone GOAL from a couple of odd-man breaks and 4 PP chances...to say nothing of managing just a shot on net. Ugh!
Anyways, it should go without saying that the Flames can't pull the same shit tonight. Look fellas - shoot it at Nabokov's chest if you have to. At least make him make a save, even if it's an easy one.
Tell you what, let's set-up a simple punishment system: If a forward like Conroy, for instance, shoots it wide (and out of zone) on a 2on1 again (or in the slot, at the top of the circle, etc.), I say let Godard get two free shots at his exposed scrotum during the intermission. That should act as ample deterrent for Connie and crew and at least make Eric* somewhat useful for a change.
*(this rule should NOT apply to Godard himself as it tends to be difficult to convince a man to punch himself in the sack. Also, the fact that Godard is in the offensive end and taking any sort of shot at all should be celebrated and rewarded).
Prediction - The Godard deterrent works. Flames take some shots - and score. Calgary 3, Sharks 2. Iginla, Huselius and Nolan for Calgary. The irrepressible Ryan Clowe (X2) for San Jose.
PS - Vic Ferrari offers some actual analysis, confirming my annoyance re: Keenan getting away from the Conroy/Tanguay/Iginla vs. Thornton match-up that seemed to work so well in game 3.
Perhaps what's most galling is the shot count isn't indicative of the play. San Jose certainly took over at the end of the third, but the Flames had a fair share of opportunities themselves - The Conroy 2on1, the Iggy-Juice-Langkow 3on1, 4 different PPs. Here's the problem, though: the Flames generated just a single shot from those 3 scenarios. One! Normally you're doing something wrong if you only get a lone GOAL from a couple of odd-man breaks and 4 PP chances...to say nothing of managing just a shot on net. Ugh!
Anyways, it should go without saying that the Flames can't pull the same shit tonight. Look fellas - shoot it at Nabokov's chest if you have to. At least make him make a save, even if it's an easy one.
Tell you what, let's set-up a simple punishment system: If a forward like Conroy, for instance, shoots it wide (and out of zone) on a 2on1 again (or in the slot, at the top of the circle, etc.), I say let Godard get two free shots at his exposed scrotum during the intermission. That should act as ample deterrent for Connie and crew and at least make Eric* somewhat useful for a change.
*(this rule should NOT apply to Godard himself as it tends to be difficult to convince a man to punch himself in the sack. Also, the fact that Godard is in the offensive end and taking any sort of shot at all should be celebrated and rewarded).
Prediction - The Godard deterrent works. Flames take some shots - and score. Calgary 3, Sharks 2. Iginla, Huselius and Nolan for Calgary. The irrepressible Ryan Clowe (X2) for San Jose.
PS - Vic Ferrari offers some actual analysis, confirming my annoyance re: Keenan getting away from the Conroy/Tanguay/Iginla vs. Thornton match-up that seemed to work so well in game 3.
Wednesday, April 16, 2008
Post Failure this 'n that
New, prevailing strategy for both clubs going forward: avoid scoring the first goal of the game. Seriously.
Apparently both teams play better trying to catch-up than in the lead. Everything the Flames did well from the middle of the first period of game 3 to the middle of the first period in game 4 evaporated once they got themselves a lead. The opposite was true of the Sharks.
Playing real hockey when behind the proverbial 8-ball has been a bit of theme for the Flames this year. They staged a number of improbable comebacks, starting with that one against Minnesota earlier in the year (eerily similar to game 3 - go down by 3 in the first, look completely out of it, and then storm back), as well as another 3 goal reversal against the Coyotes. It seems extreme adversity is Calgary's X factor - the catalyst to ignite the mysterious alchemy that is "team chemistry".
Course, this could all be selection bias on my part. There were a number of games this year that the Flames fell behind early and just continued to suck until the game was over. Still, to me, the best hockey that Calgary has played this year has seemingly ALWAYS been while playing catch-up. If there was some way to convert that kind of urgency and passion into an 'all the time' thing, we'd be in business.
Alas.
Bitching points:
- The difference makers up front almost completely disappeared last night. That includes Iginla, and at both ends of the ice. Tanguay, Huselius, Langkow - the few chances they did manage to generate, they flubbed. When 2 separate 3on1's yield a single shot on net, there's something wrong.
The PP was always weak and ineffectual as a result.
- Why did Keenan break up the Iginla-Tanguay-Conroy unit that was so effective against Thornton in the 3rd game in favor of the Conroy-Nolan-Tanguay trio?
- Dion Phaneuf needs to get his head out of his ass - at least when it comes his defensive zone play. Not all the goals that the Sharks have scored with on him can be attributed to his failings, but a fair number of them can. He's still losing coverage and seems to have trouble making decisions with the puck in traffic down low.
- Here's my obligatory officiating rant: the Sharks get away with entirely too much "subtle" interference. They are one of the most proficient teams I've seen this year at setting up picks in both ends of the rink. Sometimes it's a guy who's "skating lane" happens to cut in front of the opposition just enough to get in the way, and sometimes it's out-right stopping right in front of pursuing Flames players. There was one egregious example from last night that leaps to mind: the Sharks shot it into the Flames end. Marleau, Thornton and (I believe) Phaneuf chase it down. Marleau gets ahead of Phaneuf, and, several feet from the puck, stops up completely and leans backwards into him, completely impeding Phaneuf's progress. Thornton then collects the puck without incident. This occurred directly in front of the ref.
Im certainly not holding this issue up as the primary reason the Flames lost. It isn't. But it sure is damn well annoying to watch all night.
- Stephane Yelle drove me NUTS from the second period onwards. He failed at everything he did, repeatedly. He was useless on the forecheck and he lost every board battle or puck race I saw him engage in. There were several instances where he couldn't even shoot the puck in properly. Unless Lombardi had the puck on his stick last night, that unit (including Primuea) was an absolute lost cause. Yelle epitomized the "sit back and contain" mind-set that seemed to effect the whole team once they were in the lead (to me at least).
- Eric Godard has played about 12 minutes over the course of 4 games, including 1:22 last night. He's managed to get one roughing minor. He makes the 4th line a huge liability whenever he steps foot on the ice. Why not dress Moss, who is a vastly superior hockey player, or even Boyd, who could at least add something to the powerplay now and then? Are we really so certain the Sharks would suddenly start beating up on Kipper or Iginla if Godard watched a game from the pressbox?
I just dont get it.
Anyways, I should conclude by giving San Jose some credit for their victory: they played a nearly flawless road game (aside from a couple of odd-man rushes) and their penalty killing was outstanding. That the Flames ended the game with a franchise low 10 shots on goal had as much to do with the Sharks clogging the shooting lanes and deflecting passes as it did with Calgary scorers flubbing chances and playing passively.
Kudos. Now we're down to a best of 3. Score the first goal of game 5 at your own peril...
Apparently both teams play better trying to catch-up than in the lead. Everything the Flames did well from the middle of the first period of game 3 to the middle of the first period in game 4 evaporated once they got themselves a lead. The opposite was true of the Sharks.
Playing real hockey when behind the proverbial 8-ball has been a bit of theme for the Flames this year. They staged a number of improbable comebacks, starting with that one against Minnesota earlier in the year (eerily similar to game 3 - go down by 3 in the first, look completely out of it, and then storm back), as well as another 3 goal reversal against the Coyotes. It seems extreme adversity is Calgary's X factor - the catalyst to ignite the mysterious alchemy that is "team chemistry".
Course, this could all be selection bias on my part. There were a number of games this year that the Flames fell behind early and just continued to suck until the game was over. Still, to me, the best hockey that Calgary has played this year has seemingly ALWAYS been while playing catch-up. If there was some way to convert that kind of urgency and passion into an 'all the time' thing, we'd be in business.
Alas.
Bitching points:
- The difference makers up front almost completely disappeared last night. That includes Iginla, and at both ends of the ice. Tanguay, Huselius, Langkow - the few chances they did manage to generate, they flubbed. When 2 separate 3on1's yield a single shot on net, there's something wrong.
The PP was always weak and ineffectual as a result.
- Why did Keenan break up the Iginla-Tanguay-Conroy unit that was so effective against Thornton in the 3rd game in favor of the Conroy-Nolan-Tanguay trio?
- Dion Phaneuf needs to get his head out of his ass - at least when it comes his defensive zone play. Not all the goals that the Sharks have scored with on him can be attributed to his failings, but a fair number of them can. He's still losing coverage and seems to have trouble making decisions with the puck in traffic down low.
- Here's my obligatory officiating rant: the Sharks get away with entirely too much "subtle" interference. They are one of the most proficient teams I've seen this year at setting up picks in both ends of the rink. Sometimes it's a guy who's "skating lane" happens to cut in front of the opposition just enough to get in the way, and sometimes it's out-right stopping right in front of pursuing Flames players. There was one egregious example from last night that leaps to mind: the Sharks shot it into the Flames end. Marleau, Thornton and (I believe) Phaneuf chase it down. Marleau gets ahead of Phaneuf, and, several feet from the puck, stops up completely and leans backwards into him, completely impeding Phaneuf's progress. Thornton then collects the puck without incident. This occurred directly in front of the ref.
Im certainly not holding this issue up as the primary reason the Flames lost. It isn't. But it sure is damn well annoying to watch all night.
- Stephane Yelle drove me NUTS from the second period onwards. He failed at everything he did, repeatedly. He was useless on the forecheck and he lost every board battle or puck race I saw him engage in. There were several instances where he couldn't even shoot the puck in properly. Unless Lombardi had the puck on his stick last night, that unit (including Primuea) was an absolute lost cause. Yelle epitomized the "sit back and contain" mind-set that seemed to effect the whole team once they were in the lead (to me at least).
- Eric Godard has played about 12 minutes over the course of 4 games, including 1:22 last night. He's managed to get one roughing minor. He makes the 4th line a huge liability whenever he steps foot on the ice. Why not dress Moss, who is a vastly superior hockey player, or even Boyd, who could at least add something to the powerplay now and then? Are we really so certain the Sharks would suddenly start beating up on Kipper or Iginla if Godard watched a game from the pressbox?
I just dont get it.
Anyways, I should conclude by giving San Jose some credit for their victory: they played a nearly flawless road game (aside from a couple of odd-man rushes) and their penalty killing was outstanding. That the Flames ended the game with a franchise low 10 shots on goal had as much to do with the Sharks clogging the shooting lanes and deflecting passes as it did with Calgary scorers flubbing chances and playing passively.
Kudos. Now we're down to a best of 3. Score the first goal of game 5 at your own peril...
Tuesday, April 15, 2008
Flames/Sharks Game 4 Preview
It seems silly to be really nervous about tonights contest in light of the improbable come-back euphoria of the previous game (and the cringing and whinging coming from the Sharks camp), but that's certainly how I feel.
Why? Because, speaking quite technically, the Sharks proved themselves to be a better team than the Flames during the regular season. They are still the favorites to take this series. And they've just had 2 days of the entire hockey world, including their owns fans, questioning their man-hood after their spiritual de-pantsing in game 3.
In short, the Sharks are going to be a pissed-off and highly motivated adversary for the Flames tonight. I have no doubt they'll be looking to score on every rush and to put every red sweater through the boards at every possible opportunity.
The CLICHE keys to victory for Calgary: Weather the initial storm (perhaps better than they did last game) and stay disciplined in the face of the Sharks aggression. There'll doubtless be a lot of high-hits, slew-foots, pushing after the whistle and Jody Shelley's dirty looks. If Calgary is drawn into a special teams battle or goaded into repeating the debacle 2nd period from game 2, they'll most certainly lose this one.
Line-up stuff: I assume Craig Conroy will play with Tanguay and Iginla again, mainly because Keenan seems to be favoring the power on power strategy. And why not? Iginla et al. beat the hell out of Thornton's crew after about the 10 minute mark of the first period on Sunday - and that was with Tanguay constantly passing off pucks in prime scoring position. Another good game from these guys, meaning a point or two as well as the erasure of Thornton at ES, might just push the Flames one step closer to finishing off this upset.
Prediction - Flames win, 4-3 in OT. Iginla, Lombardi, Nolan and Huselius (GWG) for the Calgary. Clowe, Griere and Rissmiller for the San Jose.
Go Flames!
Why? Because, speaking quite technically, the Sharks proved themselves to be a better team than the Flames during the regular season. They are still the favorites to take this series. And they've just had 2 days of the entire hockey world, including their owns fans, questioning their man-hood after their spiritual de-pantsing in game 3.
In short, the Sharks are going to be a pissed-off and highly motivated adversary for the Flames tonight. I have no doubt they'll be looking to score on every rush and to put every red sweater through the boards at every possible opportunity.
The CLICHE keys to victory for Calgary: Weather the initial storm (perhaps better than they did last game) and stay disciplined in the face of the Sharks aggression. There'll doubtless be a lot of high-hits, slew-foots, pushing after the whistle and Jody Shelley's dirty looks. If Calgary is drawn into a special teams battle or goaded into repeating the debacle 2nd period from game 2, they'll most certainly lose this one.
Line-up stuff: I assume Craig Conroy will play with Tanguay and Iginla again, mainly because Keenan seems to be favoring the power on power strategy. And why not? Iginla et al. beat the hell out of Thornton's crew after about the 10 minute mark of the first period on Sunday - and that was with Tanguay constantly passing off pucks in prime scoring position. Another good game from these guys, meaning a point or two as well as the erasure of Thornton at ES, might just push the Flames one step closer to finishing off this upset.
Prediction - Flames win, 4-3 in OT. Iginla, Lombardi, Nolan and Huselius (GWG) for the Calgary. Clowe, Griere and Rissmiller for the San Jose.
Go Flames!
Sunday, April 13, 2008
Game 3 Preview
Coming out of the Shark tank with a split is probably the best the Flames could hope for going into the San Jose. I've been pleasantly surprised by the level of "try" in Calgary's game so far: the first couple of performances far outstripped the efforts we saw from this club just a year ago. Unlike the Playfair-led squad, there's actually some hope that the Flames can win the series this time around. There's been good performances from guys besides Kiprusoff and the balance of shots and chances at ES are close to even.
That said, there are obviously things to be worried about for Flames fans. The PP has looked pretty crappy outside of the lone Phaneuf goal and a couple of other weaknesses that were in evidence all year (discipline, transition game) have been obvious and glaring, particularly in the recent loss. In addition, the Sharks have managed to grossly out-shoot Calgary in each game so far...a trend the Flames should look to curb, if not eradicate entirely, if they want to get this thing to 7 games or beyond.
I haven't even mentioned the fact that the Sharks were one of the best road teams in the league during the regular season. A loud - and red - crowd will likely do it's best to swing the advantage to the Flames favor tonight, plus Keenan will now have the luxury of targeting some of the Sharks lesser lights tonight. Iron Mike's extremely pro-active bench management through the first couple of contests suggests he'll have some tricks up his sleeve this evening, which is something I guess.
Line-up notes: According to inside the Flames, it looks like Conroy will be back up with Jarome and Tanguay, with Langkow centering the 2nd line and Lombo back down with Primeau and Yelle. I can't say why, since I thought Conroy struggled relative to Lombardi and Langkow the last little while. Course, this all depends on how Keenan plans to use each line and whether these combinations will stick for entire night (I doubt it).
No word on the defense pairings, so I guess we can assume no change for now. It wouldn't surprise me, though, to see Eriksson back beside Phaneuf given Vandermeer's rough night last game. I guess we'll have to wait and see.
Prediction - Iginla takes this one over and the Flames win a close one. Calgary 3 (Iggy X2, Nolan) San Jose 2 (Michalek, Roenick).
Go Flames!
That said, there are obviously things to be worried about for Flames fans. The PP has looked pretty crappy outside of the lone Phaneuf goal and a couple of other weaknesses that were in evidence all year (discipline, transition game) have been obvious and glaring, particularly in the recent loss. In addition, the Sharks have managed to grossly out-shoot Calgary in each game so far...a trend the Flames should look to curb, if not eradicate entirely, if they want to get this thing to 7 games or beyond.
I haven't even mentioned the fact that the Sharks were one of the best road teams in the league during the regular season. A loud - and red - crowd will likely do it's best to swing the advantage to the Flames favor tonight, plus Keenan will now have the luxury of targeting some of the Sharks lesser lights tonight. Iron Mike's extremely pro-active bench management through the first couple of contests suggests he'll have some tricks up his sleeve this evening, which is something I guess.
Line-up notes: According to inside the Flames, it looks like Conroy will be back up with Jarome and Tanguay, with Langkow centering the 2nd line and Lombo back down with Primeau and Yelle. I can't say why, since I thought Conroy struggled relative to Lombardi and Langkow the last little while. Course, this all depends on how Keenan plans to use each line and whether these combinations will stick for entire night (I doubt it).
No word on the defense pairings, so I guess we can assume no change for now. It wouldn't surprise me, though, to see Eriksson back beside Phaneuf given Vandermeer's rough night last game. I guess we'll have to wait and see.
Prediction - Iginla takes this one over and the Flames win a close one. Calgary 3 (Iggy X2, Nolan) San Jose 2 (Michalek, Roenick).
Go Flames!
Friday, April 11, 2008
Game 2 Postgame
Im going to ignore the penalty parade in the 2nd period. It'll be covered elsewhere extensively for the next 3 days. Let's just say, some of the calls were borderline at best, but the Flames didn't do themselves any favors - and leave it at that.
Despite the loss and shot disparity, there were things to like about the Flames play: the 2nd period and 3rd period, for instance (aside from the putrid powerplays), and I think Calgary got the better quality chances at ES. Kipper looks as dialed in as ever and guys like Moss, Lombardi and Nolan showed that game one wasn't a fluke.
Now the stuff I didn't like -
- Jim Vandermeer. Awful, awful game by his guy. Sarich bounces back with a fine effort and then Vandy goes in the toilet. He made a number of ill-advised passes in the defensive zone and had problems handling and managing the puck all night. That was the first clear glimpse Flames fans have had of the Vandermeer that was traded out of Chicago for a goon and the Vandermeer that was basically jeered out of Philadelphia near the deadline.
It seems the ghost of Zyuzin's past has decided to possess one Calgary defender a night for the first round...
- Calgary's most damaging habit, besides taking penalty after ill-advised penalty last night, was giving-up the puck in and around their own blueline. Time after time after time, a Flames player would come within three feet of exiting their end only to give up the puck. That just kills the transition game and leads to increased time in the bad end of the ice. If the Flames are going to give this series an honest run, this terrible tendency has to get the heave-ho.
Despite the loss and shot disparity, there were things to like about the Flames play: the 2nd period and 3rd period, for instance (aside from the putrid powerplays), and I think Calgary got the better quality chances at ES. Kipper looks as dialed in as ever and guys like Moss, Lombardi and Nolan showed that game one wasn't a fluke.
Now the stuff I didn't like -
- Jim Vandermeer. Awful, awful game by his guy. Sarich bounces back with a fine effort and then Vandy goes in the toilet. He made a number of ill-advised passes in the defensive zone and had problems handling and managing the puck all night. That was the first clear glimpse Flames fans have had of the Vandermeer that was traded out of Chicago for a goon and the Vandermeer that was basically jeered out of Philadelphia near the deadline.
It seems the ghost of Zyuzin's past has decided to possess one Calgary defender a night for the first round...
- Calgary's most damaging habit, besides taking penalty after ill-advised penalty last night, was giving-up the puck in and around their own blueline. Time after time after time, a Flames player would come within three feet of exiting their end only to give up the puck. That just kills the transition game and leads to increased time in the bad end of the ice. If the Flames are going to give this series an honest run, this terrible tendency has to get the heave-ho.
Thursday, April 10, 2008
Postgame/Pregame
Huzzah! I think last night went about as well as can be expected, even granting the mountain of shots the Flames surrendered. Kipper outplayed Nabby, Iggy outplayed Thornton and the support players were pretty damn solid from top to bottom. Delete the Sarich mind-cramps (first goal against, first penalty against, break-away against in the 3rd) and the game probably in't as close as it ended up. Here are my impressions, in no particular order:
- Last night made obvious the differences between Playfair and Keenan as coaches. Iron Mike ran one of the most active benches I've ever seen, inserting Iginla at various times, switching up combinations and match-ups. Playfair, on the other hand, always looked overmatched and impotent on the road last season, particularly in the post-season. Nervous Jimmy got served his lunch by Babcock last April while Keenan may have out-coached Wilson last night.
- Is anyone else bamboozled by the Eriksson situation? How can a guy either be a healthy scratch or a top 4 defenseman? Why would Keenan scratch Hale through to the end the year...and then mysteriously re-insert him when it mattered the most (at Eriksson's expense). Don't get me wrong, I agree with the move...I just don't understand what determined it. Perhaps the sequence where Burrows made an ass of Eriksson in the final game of the regular season (one-on-one, mvoing into the Flames zone. Burrows makes a nifty little move to the right, Eriksson responds by stumbling over his own feet and out of the way entirely. Miikka saves the ensuing break-away) was a tipping point?
- I thought Tanguay's play was just so-so last night. He looked nervous to me, similar to his first month as a Flame last season. He forced a lot of offensive plays that weren't there, particularly at the blueline. His passes were a bit off and he never seemed really sure of himself. While he wasn't bad, he surely wasn't the difference maker he can be.
- Speaking of shoddy performances, the worst Flame on the ice was probably Cory Sarich. Marleau turned him into a pylon on the first goal against and then he was caught running around shortly thereafter and took the first Flames penalty of the night (which isn't too surprising). Then again in the third, he ran down a puck along the Sharks blueline that Regehr was already pursuing...which resulted in a collision between the two Calgary players and a Joe Thorton break-away (that Kipper thankfully turned aside).
Is it too early to be disappointed by the Sarich signing? I mean, he does go through periods of being pretty damn effective, but when he's off, he's way off. And because of the quality of competition he faces, it usually has pretty grave repercussions for the Flames when he struggles.
Sarich is big and strong, hits hard and typically has good positioning. However, he's also somewhat inconsistent, bad with the puck, not very mobile and useless as far as offense is concerned. He ended up in the red at ES this year and is the worst player on the team in terms of taking and drawing penalties. Not the best value* for 3.6M/year.
*(On a related note - Jordan Leopold was a healthy scratch for Avs last night. What I wouldn't give to have him back on the Flames and with Regehr @ 1.5M/year, even with his injury concerns...)
- One of the reasons Calgary won last night was the relatively "loose" reffing. There were chippy calls missed on both sides of the ledger which works fine the Flames. As mentioned here and elsewhere, ES is where it's at for Calgary in this series - if the reffing remains true to the standard set last night, the Flames have a much better chance of victory.
- San Jose got ton of shots last night, which wasn't unexpected, but the count was somewhat inflated by a whole bunch of perimeter shots:
According to the ESPN chart, 14 of san Jose's 39 shots came from top of the face-off circle or farther. The Flames had 7 of those in comparison.
This isn't to say the Sharks didn't outchance the Flames (they did) or that Kipper wasn't great (he was), but the difference in quality opportunities was probably closer than the shot clock suggests.
- Peter Mahr mentioned this morning that the Flames have three times made long runs in the play-offs when Calgary has experience a freak snow-storm in April. That's about the only positive I can take from the foot of slushy white stuff currently clogging the city's streets.
- Tonight, the Flames have a chance to take a nice lead in the series (although I'd be pretty happy with the split myself), and get one step closer to making me and my dour predictions look foolish. That's humble pie I'd gladly eat, however.
Go Flames!
- Last night made obvious the differences between Playfair and Keenan as coaches. Iron Mike ran one of the most active benches I've ever seen, inserting Iginla at various times, switching up combinations and match-ups. Playfair, on the other hand, always looked overmatched and impotent on the road last season, particularly in the post-season. Nervous Jimmy got served his lunch by Babcock last April while Keenan may have out-coached Wilson last night.
- Is anyone else bamboozled by the Eriksson situation? How can a guy either be a healthy scratch or a top 4 defenseman? Why would Keenan scratch Hale through to the end the year...and then mysteriously re-insert him when it mattered the most (at Eriksson's expense). Don't get me wrong, I agree with the move...I just don't understand what determined it. Perhaps the sequence where Burrows made an ass of Eriksson in the final game of the regular season (one-on-one, mvoing into the Flames zone. Burrows makes a nifty little move to the right, Eriksson responds by stumbling over his own feet and out of the way entirely. Miikka saves the ensuing break-away) was a tipping point?
- I thought Tanguay's play was just so-so last night. He looked nervous to me, similar to his first month as a Flame last season. He forced a lot of offensive plays that weren't there, particularly at the blueline. His passes were a bit off and he never seemed really sure of himself. While he wasn't bad, he surely wasn't the difference maker he can be.
- Speaking of shoddy performances, the worst Flame on the ice was probably Cory Sarich. Marleau turned him into a pylon on the first goal against and then he was caught running around shortly thereafter and took the first Flames penalty of the night (which isn't too surprising). Then again in the third, he ran down a puck along the Sharks blueline that Regehr was already pursuing...which resulted in a collision between the two Calgary players and a Joe Thorton break-away (that Kipper thankfully turned aside).
Is it too early to be disappointed by the Sarich signing? I mean, he does go through periods of being pretty damn effective, but when he's off, he's way off. And because of the quality of competition he faces, it usually has pretty grave repercussions for the Flames when he struggles.
Sarich is big and strong, hits hard and typically has good positioning. However, he's also somewhat inconsistent, bad with the puck, not very mobile and useless as far as offense is concerned. He ended up in the red at ES this year and is the worst player on the team in terms of taking and drawing penalties. Not the best value* for 3.6M/year.
*(On a related note - Jordan Leopold was a healthy scratch for Avs last night. What I wouldn't give to have him back on the Flames and with Regehr @ 1.5M/year, even with his injury concerns...)
- One of the reasons Calgary won last night was the relatively "loose" reffing. There were chippy calls missed on both sides of the ledger which works fine the Flames. As mentioned here and elsewhere, ES is where it's at for Calgary in this series - if the reffing remains true to the standard set last night, the Flames have a much better chance of victory.
- San Jose got ton of shots last night, which wasn't unexpected, but the count was somewhat inflated by a whole bunch of perimeter shots:
According to the ESPN chart, 14 of san Jose's 39 shots came from top of the face-off circle or farther. The Flames had 7 of those in comparison.
This isn't to say the Sharks didn't outchance the Flames (they did) or that Kipper wasn't great (he was), but the difference in quality opportunities was probably closer than the shot clock suggests.
- Peter Mahr mentioned this morning that the Flames have three times made long runs in the play-offs when Calgary has experience a freak snow-storm in April. That's about the only positive I can take from the foot of slushy white stuff currently clogging the city's streets.
- Tonight, the Flames have a chance to take a nice lead in the series (although I'd be pretty happy with the split myself), and get one step closer to making me and my dour predictions look foolish. That's humble pie I'd gladly eat, however.
Go Flames!
Wednesday, April 09, 2008
Flames in San Jose - Game 1 Preview
It's the most wonderful time of year for a hockey fan (whose team has made the play-offs. Sorry Edmonton boosters). Infected with post-season excitement and inspired by Matt's optimism, here's some reasons I think the Flame could potentially take this series:
I like Jarome Iginla -
His 50 goals and 98 points were best in the Western Conference. Better than Datsyuk and Thornton, both of whom played on better squads with arguably better line-mates. He's an elite forward, top-notch Captain and proven play-off performer.
More to the point, I like Jarome more than Joe Thornton, the Sharks primary difference maker. I picked jumbo Joe in the first round of a play-off pool a couple years ago and as a result was motivated to watch him intently as the post-season progressed. I was left...unimpressed, to say the least. Unless the puck was deep in the offensive zone and the Sharks were on the PP, Joe was an underwhelming presence. He lolly-gagged around his own end and managed to look...bored I guess is the best way to describe it, more often than not. He wasn't overly urgent or physical and he caused way more turn-overs than goals with his low-percentage passes down low.
I like Miikka Kiprusoff -
I was tough on old Kipper this year, but he really started to get it together down the stretch. In fact, he was probably the primary reason the Flames won some games in February and March. If Kipper can be the man he was at the end of this season - and in the play-offs last year - he gives Calgary a legitimate chance to steal a couple of games.
I like Dion Phaneuf and Robyn Regehr -
Phaneuf took a few steps forward this year and is a legit Norris Candidate to some. His defensive game has improved and he's more than just a "big shot" on the point on the other end of the ice. He's the Flames best hitter, skater and passer from the back-end and he has a lot to prove this year considering his struggles in play-offs past.
Regehr, on the hand, isn't much of a threat to score. He is, however, still the best shut-down option on the team and gets the job done better than anyone else on the club in the defensive zone. If Reggies can avoid "Vancouver nights" and consistently suppress Joe Thornton's scoring levels, Calgary's probabilities for success improve greatly.
I like the improvement of the supporting players -
Lombardi, Yelle, Nilson and Primeau have all looked like guys that can actually contribute over the last 4 weeks or so, a change primarily spear-headed by Lombo. The fast-skating center really looks like he's taken the next step after flailing around in a rather tough situation for much of the season. He led all Calgary forwards in ice-time more than once in March despite rarely playing on the PP and has consistently been a threat to score or draw penalties over the last quarter of the season.
Fun Lombardi fact - he was a minus player in only 2 of his final 23 games. He had 3 goals and 6 points in the last 9 games of the year as well.
Tonight -
Lots of questions. Does Conroy go back with Nolan and Tanguay? Do they take on Thornton et al? Where does Lombardi play if so (probably with Primeau and Yelle I guess). Also, I noticed Eriksson with Aucoin in the third pairing during the last match against the Canucks - here's hoping Keenan sticks with that pairing so Wilson can't feast on a Phaneuf/Eriksson duo all night long.
Good news out of San Jose is that Christian Ehrhoff is injured and unavailable for game 1. the Sharks resultant top 4 is Campbell-Murray and McLaren-Rivet. Not terrible, but hardly fearsome. If Calgary can stay out of the box and get Jarome out as much as possible, he should be able to do some damage against those pairings.
Prediction - Not even gonna dare.
Go Flames!
Sharks perspectives here, here and here.
Tuesday, April 08, 2008
New and Old Predictions
Well, it's the end of the year and time to compare the actual results to what my hubritic prophecies in October. Let's take a look:
Wester Conference - predictions:
Detroit
San Jose
Colorado
Anaheim
Nashville
Calgary
Vancouver
Dallas
--------
Minnesota
LA
St. Louis
Edmonton
Columbus
Chicago
Phoenix
So I got 7 of the 8 play-off teams right and was damn close for Colorado and Calgary. The lower seeds got ugly, mainly because I failed to predict Edmonton's 15+ extra time victories, Phoenix being gifted Bryzer half way through the season and the extent to which LA would stink.
Eastern Conference Predictions:
Ottawa
NYR
Florida
Pittsburgh
Buffalo
NJD
Atlanta
Toronto
--------
Tampa Bay
Carolina
Philadelphia
Montreal
Boston
NYI
Washington
Whew boy is that ever ugly. Florida AND Atlanta to make the post-season? What was I thinking? I dont think I got a single one of these right.
With my gross incompetence in the field of prognostication in mind, here are my first-round expectations:
West -
DET VS. NSH
The Preds are the cheapest roster to make the play-offs this year, coming in at just over $35M. They overcame a lot of adversity this year (ownership squabbles, selling off of big contracts in the off-season, Chris Mason taking a giant step backwards) and it's a minor miracle that they made the dance at all.
Detroit, on the other hand, were far and away the best team in the league in just about every conceivable way. Their only vulnerability may be goaltending - but it's one shared by Nashville. And yes, I know Dan Ellis has one of the best SV% in the league...but, given his limited experience and the relatively small sample size, I dont buy it.
Red Wings in 5
SJS VS. CGY
See my thoughts below. Flames have a lot of big guns, but a lot of major weaknesses as well. Their faults line-up quite nicely with the Sharks srengths...if you're a SJS fan. Unless Kipper becomes godlike and the Flames suddenly discover the discipline that eluded them all year, this one goes to San Jose.
Sharks in 6
MIN VS. COL
This is a tough series to call. Minnesota ended up being the "better" team over the course of the year, but the Avs added a lot of major pieces at the deadline and suffered from a ton of injuries throughout the season. Smyth, Sakic, Statsny, Forsberg and Foote make this a very different squad than the one that competed most nights up until March or so.
The Wild have nice players in Burns and Gaborik and a lot of muscle, but I can't see them competing in a 7 game series against the Avs superior depth. If Theodore can be as good as Backstom, which isn't a ludicrous claim at this point, Colorado takes this one.
Avalanche in 7.
DAL VS. ANA
Dallas was one of the best teams in the league before the Brad Richards induced nose-dive. Of course, they were also one of the luckiest teams in the league up until then in my estimation. In contrast, Anaheim went the other way after the addition of guys like Selanne and Niedermayer mid-season, though they still can't seem to score much.
Hmm...let's see...Turco, Ribeiro and no-Zubov versus Giguere, Selanne and Niedermayer/Pronger. No contest.
Ducks in 5
East -
MON VS. BOS
Montreal isn't a great ES team still, but their PP remains formidable (somehow). Boston, on the other hand, is the only play-off bound team to have a negative GD. I wouldn't bet on the Habs making hay against the stiffer competition in the later rounds...but I also wouldn't bet on Boston beating any play-off team in any series. Assuming Carey Price is as cool in the post-season as he was previously, Montreal should take this one.
Canadiens in 5.
PIT VS. OTT
What the hell happened to the Sens? They stepped right in an elevator shaft after their hot start and have been worse than mediocre since. On the other hand, the Penguins proved they were for real by excelling despite long-term injuries to Sidney Crosby and MA Fleury. The mis-match from last year's first round has flip-flopped completely.
Penguins in 6.
WSH VS. PHI
The Capitals are my sleeper pick this year. Since Boudreau took over, they've been on something like a 107 point pace - and they only just picked up a competent starting goaltender at the trade deadline. They have far and away the best player on the planet currently and a couple of nice complimentary pieces (Backstrom, Federov, Laich, Semin, Green, Poti).
As for the Flyers...I dont have much faith in them. They were routinely out-shot and out-played this season, but survived thanks to some remarkable (and probably unsustainable) performances from guys like Richards, Lupul and Biron. With Briere being a crater at ES and the club lacking Simon Gagne, I dont see Philly making it too far.
Capitals in 7.
NJD VS. NYR
This is the toughest series to call for me. Both teams have stellar goaltending and neither of scores all that much. The Rangers have the better forward roster on paper, but have been afflicted with one of the worst team-wide shooting percentages all season. For their part, the Devils are excellent defensively, as usual, but their blueline quality and depth leaves a lot to be desired (again, on paper).
I think this one comes down to bounces and injuries, so Im going to go with pure gut feel.
Rangers in 7.
Wester Conference - predictions:
Detroit
San Jose
Colorado
Anaheim
Nashville
Calgary
Vancouver
Dallas
--------
Minnesota
LA
St. Louis
Edmonton
Columbus
Chicago
Phoenix
So I got 7 of the 8 play-off teams right and was damn close for Colorado and Calgary. The lower seeds got ugly, mainly because I failed to predict Edmonton's 15+ extra time victories, Phoenix being gifted Bryzer half way through the season and the extent to which LA would stink.
Eastern Conference Predictions:
Ottawa
NYR
Florida
Pittsburgh
Buffalo
NJD
Atlanta
Toronto
--------
Tampa Bay
Carolina
Philadelphia
Montreal
Boston
NYI
Washington
Whew boy is that ever ugly. Florida AND Atlanta to make the post-season? What was I thinking? I dont think I got a single one of these right.
With my gross incompetence in the field of prognostication in mind, here are my first-round expectations:
West -
DET VS. NSH
The Preds are the cheapest roster to make the play-offs this year, coming in at just over $35M. They overcame a lot of adversity this year (ownership squabbles, selling off of big contracts in the off-season, Chris Mason taking a giant step backwards) and it's a minor miracle that they made the dance at all.
Detroit, on the other hand, were far and away the best team in the league in just about every conceivable way. Their only vulnerability may be goaltending - but it's one shared by Nashville. And yes, I know Dan Ellis has one of the best SV% in the league...but, given his limited experience and the relatively small sample size, I dont buy it.
Red Wings in 5
SJS VS. CGY
See my thoughts below. Flames have a lot of big guns, but a lot of major weaknesses as well. Their faults line-up quite nicely with the Sharks srengths...if you're a SJS fan. Unless Kipper becomes godlike and the Flames suddenly discover the discipline that eluded them all year, this one goes to San Jose.
Sharks in 6
MIN VS. COL
This is a tough series to call. Minnesota ended up being the "better" team over the course of the year, but the Avs added a lot of major pieces at the deadline and suffered from a ton of injuries throughout the season. Smyth, Sakic, Statsny, Forsberg and Foote make this a very different squad than the one that competed most nights up until March or so.
The Wild have nice players in Burns and Gaborik and a lot of muscle, but I can't see them competing in a 7 game series against the Avs superior depth. If Theodore can be as good as Backstom, which isn't a ludicrous claim at this point, Colorado takes this one.
Avalanche in 7.
DAL VS. ANA
Dallas was one of the best teams in the league before the Brad Richards induced nose-dive. Of course, they were also one of the luckiest teams in the league up until then in my estimation. In contrast, Anaheim went the other way after the addition of guys like Selanne and Niedermayer mid-season, though they still can't seem to score much.
Hmm...let's see...Turco, Ribeiro and no-Zubov versus Giguere, Selanne and Niedermayer/Pronger. No contest.
Ducks in 5
East -
MON VS. BOS
Montreal isn't a great ES team still, but their PP remains formidable (somehow). Boston, on the other hand, is the only play-off bound team to have a negative GD. I wouldn't bet on the Habs making hay against the stiffer competition in the later rounds...but I also wouldn't bet on Boston beating any play-off team in any series. Assuming Carey Price is as cool in the post-season as he was previously, Montreal should take this one.
Canadiens in 5.
PIT VS. OTT
What the hell happened to the Sens? They stepped right in an elevator shaft after their hot start and have been worse than mediocre since. On the other hand, the Penguins proved they were for real by excelling despite long-term injuries to Sidney Crosby and MA Fleury. The mis-match from last year's first round has flip-flopped completely.
Penguins in 6.
WSH VS. PHI
The Capitals are my sleeper pick this year. Since Boudreau took over, they've been on something like a 107 point pace - and they only just picked up a competent starting goaltender at the trade deadline. They have far and away the best player on the planet currently and a couple of nice complimentary pieces (Backstrom, Federov, Laich, Semin, Green, Poti).
As for the Flyers...I dont have much faith in them. They were routinely out-shot and out-played this season, but survived thanks to some remarkable (and probably unsustainable) performances from guys like Richards, Lupul and Biron. With Briere being a crater at ES and the club lacking Simon Gagne, I dont see Philly making it too far.
Capitals in 7.
NJD VS. NYR
This is the toughest series to call for me. Both teams have stellar goaltending and neither of scores all that much. The Rangers have the better forward roster on paper, but have been afflicted with one of the worst team-wide shooting percentages all season. For their part, the Devils are excellent defensively, as usual, but their blueline quality and depth leaves a lot to be desired (again, on paper).
I think this one comes down to bounces and injuries, so Im going to go with pure gut feel.
Rangers in 7.
Monday, April 07, 2008
First Round Preview
I was solicited by Pensblog to provide a play-off preview for the Flames/Sharks series. Im too lazy to do it twice, so here's what Im sending to the boys in Pittsburgh:
Calgary Flames versus San Jose Sharks
This is a mis-match of Biblical proportions. Pure David versus Goliath. Except rather than wielding a stone and a sling-shot, David (Calgary) is instead armed with little more than an attitude and a rapidly melting blob of cherry jello.
Qualitatively speaking, the Sharks are a bigger, faster and younger team than the Flames. They have a less physical but more mobile defense that lacks a big-time difference maker like Phaneuf, but is far more solid from 1 to 6 than Calgary's hodge-podge back-end. While a couple of San Jose's forwards had relatively disappointing regular seasons (Marleau, Cheechoo), one has to admit their depth and quality up-front also exceeds that of the Flame's, who have a few big guns and a lot of dead-weight otherwise.
Quantitatively speaking, the Sharks are a superior team in terms of just about every metric you can think of: they have the best PK in the league (85.8%) and the 8th best PP (18.8%). They also have the 2nd best GD (goal differential) in the Western Conference (+29). In contrast, the Flames special teams both lurk near the bottom third of the NHL (PP - 16.8% - 20th, PK - 81.4% - 20th) and they have the second lowest GD of all the play-off bound teams (+2), ahead of only the Boston Bruins. It's worth noting that Calgary had a negative GD until the 7-1 shellacking of a demoralized Vancouver Canuck squad in the final game of the year...
Just to add to the ill-tidings, San Jose was objectively the best team around by a fair margin during the final quarter of the season: they gathered 38 of a possible 42 points and scored 25 more goals than they gave up. On the other hand, Calgary limped it's way into the post-season, garnering 26 points out of a possible 42, with a median +5 GD, despite what many would call a decidedly soft schedule down the stretch.
Is there any good news?
It's considered sacrilege in some corners of sports fandom to speak ill of your chosen squad. So, for those who favor *Cheerleader!* flavored sentiment, here's my best effort at putting a silver lining on this rather dark cloud.
Just about the only measure that sees the Flames come out on top is GF - Calgary scored 7 more goals than the San Jose this season. Although the Sharks were a better PP team, the difference is made up by Calgary's superior ES (even-strength) prowess: Flames were actually the 12th best team at scoring 5on5 this year (145) while the Sharks weren't quite so adept, managing just 131 ES goals (20th). The difference between ES goals for and goals against for each team was actually quite similar (+9 for the Sharks, +10 for the Flames) again with a slight edge going to Calgary.
Clearly, the Flames primary strategy going into round one should be to take as few penalties as possible. The more time the teams spend at 5on5, the better Calgary's chances of success.
Aside from that, Flames fans can only hope that their team can fashion another Cinderella run similar to their march to the finals in 03-04. While the team managed just middling results during the regular season, Calgary does have a number of difference makers that are capable of single-handedly dominating games and snatching victories from the jaws of defeat: Jarome Iginla (50 goals, 98 points, top scorer in the Western Conference), Dion Phaneuf (17 goals, 60 points, potential Norris candidate) and Miikka Kiprusoff (lack luster stats, but probably the best Flame over the final 20 or 30 games). In fact, all three were major reasons why Calgary ended up winning the season series versus the Sharks this year* (3-1). So there's at least some possibility of success if one or more of these guys gets hot.
*(the wet blanket fact - Calgary played played all their games against the Sharks before San Jose's big run in the final quarter of the season.)
Conclusion
There's hope, but it's slim hope at best. The Sharks enter the play-offs as probably the hottest team in the league and one the juggernauts of the Western Conference. The Flames, for their part, enter the post-season quietly and through the back door; their chances of victory resting on the small possibility the Goliath they face is allergic to cherry jello.
Calgary Flames versus San Jose Sharks
This is a mis-match of Biblical proportions. Pure David versus Goliath. Except rather than wielding a stone and a sling-shot, David (Calgary) is instead armed with little more than an attitude and a rapidly melting blob of cherry jello.
Qualitatively speaking, the Sharks are a bigger, faster and younger team than the Flames. They have a less physical but more mobile defense that lacks a big-time difference maker like Phaneuf, but is far more solid from 1 to 6 than Calgary's hodge-podge back-end. While a couple of San Jose's forwards had relatively disappointing regular seasons (Marleau, Cheechoo), one has to admit their depth and quality up-front also exceeds that of the Flame's, who have a few big guns and a lot of dead-weight otherwise.
Quantitatively speaking, the Sharks are a superior team in terms of just about every metric you can think of: they have the best PK in the league (85.8%) and the 8th best PP (18.8%). They also have the 2nd best GD (goal differential) in the Western Conference (+29). In contrast, the Flames special teams both lurk near the bottom third of the NHL (PP - 16.8% - 20th, PK - 81.4% - 20th) and they have the second lowest GD of all the play-off bound teams (+2), ahead of only the Boston Bruins. It's worth noting that Calgary had a negative GD until the 7-1 shellacking of a demoralized Vancouver Canuck squad in the final game of the year...
Just to add to the ill-tidings, San Jose was objectively the best team around by a fair margin during the final quarter of the season: they gathered 38 of a possible 42 points and scored 25 more goals than they gave up. On the other hand, Calgary limped it's way into the post-season, garnering 26 points out of a possible 42, with a median +5 GD, despite what many would call a decidedly soft schedule down the stretch.
Is there any good news?
It's considered sacrilege in some corners of sports fandom to speak ill of your chosen squad. So, for those who favor *Cheerleader!* flavored sentiment, here's my best effort at putting a silver lining on this rather dark cloud.
Just about the only measure that sees the Flames come out on top is GF - Calgary scored 7 more goals than the San Jose this season. Although the Sharks were a better PP team, the difference is made up by Calgary's superior ES (even-strength) prowess: Flames were actually the 12th best team at scoring 5on5 this year (145) while the Sharks weren't quite so adept, managing just 131 ES goals (20th). The difference between ES goals for and goals against for each team was actually quite similar (+9 for the Sharks, +10 for the Flames) again with a slight edge going to Calgary.
Clearly, the Flames primary strategy going into round one should be to take as few penalties as possible. The more time the teams spend at 5on5, the better Calgary's chances of success.
Aside from that, Flames fans can only hope that their team can fashion another Cinderella run similar to their march to the finals in 03-04. While the team managed just middling results during the regular season, Calgary does have a number of difference makers that are capable of single-handedly dominating games and snatching victories from the jaws of defeat: Jarome Iginla (50 goals, 98 points, top scorer in the Western Conference), Dion Phaneuf (17 goals, 60 points, potential Norris candidate) and Miikka Kiprusoff (lack luster stats, but probably the best Flame over the final 20 or 30 games). In fact, all three were major reasons why Calgary ended up winning the season series versus the Sharks this year* (3-1). So there's at least some possibility of success if one or more of these guys gets hot.
*(the wet blanket fact - Calgary played played all their games against the Sharks before San Jose's big run in the final quarter of the season.)
Conclusion
There's hope, but it's slim hope at best. The Sharks enter the play-offs as probably the hottest team in the league and one the juggernauts of the Western Conference. The Flames, for their part, enter the post-season quietly and through the back door; their chances of victory resting on the small possibility the Goliath they face is allergic to cherry jello.
Sunday, April 06, 2008
Saturday, April 05, 2008
Flames @ Canucks - final game of the season
To be quite honest, I dont much care about the outcome tonight. I'd like to see Jarome get his 50th and a win is always preferable, but really...meh.
A victory does mean less of chance of meeting SJS in the first round, which is a sensible goal. So there's that.
Line-up notes - Yelle is out after that Boogaard hit and it wouldn't surprise me to see Conroy resting up for the post-season. If a win was totally meaningless, I'd expect guys like Phaneuf and Iginla to be sitting out too, but with the 2 points still counting for something, Im guessing that all the big guns (as well as Kipper) will be dressed tonight.
Also, word is Bingo Bango will get the start for Vancouver tonight. I can't possibly fathom why, beyond perhaps trying to salvage some pride by defeating a hated rival. Seems pretty silly to me, considering the heavy burden Roberto's had to carry this year, but that's just me.
Prediction - One point in extra time. Jarome DOES get his 50th.
Update - Inside the Flames says it's Joseph tonight:
"We talked it over as a staff and we decided to put Curtis in the net," said head coach Mike Keenan. "It'd be good for Curtis to play because you never know what's going to happen in the future and to help him stay ready. I think that's important for us."
That's nice and all, but Im guessing it has more to do with avoiding fatigue/injury to Kipper than "keeping Curtis sharp."
Go Flames.
A victory does mean less of chance of meeting SJS in the first round, which is a sensible goal. So there's that.
Line-up notes - Yelle is out after that Boogaard hit and it wouldn't surprise me to see Conroy resting up for the post-season. If a win was totally meaningless, I'd expect guys like Phaneuf and Iginla to be sitting out too, but with the 2 points still counting for something, Im guessing that all the big guns (as well as Kipper) will be dressed tonight.
Also, word is Bingo Bango will get the start for Vancouver tonight. I can't possibly fathom why, beyond perhaps trying to salvage some pride by defeating a hated rival. Seems pretty silly to me, considering the heavy burden Roberto's had to carry this year, but that's just me.
Prediction - One point in extra time. Jarome DOES get his 50th.
Update - Inside the Flames says it's Joseph tonight:
"We talked it over as a staff and we decided to put Curtis in the net," said head coach Mike Keenan. "It'd be good for Curtis to play because you never know what's going to happen in the future and to help him stay ready. I think that's important for us."
That's nice and all, but Im guessing it has more to do with avoiding fatigue/injury to Kipper than "keeping Curtis sharp."
Go Flames.
Thursday, April 03, 2008
Flames and Wild - Liveblog the second
Let's get ready to rrrrrumble (or fumble)!
Calgary won their last game, but I gotta say it looked more like fortune than ability. A great Kipper and 3 fortuitous bounces eliminated the Oilers from play-off eligibility. It'll take more than that to claim the victory tonight I think.
20:00 - The Langkow line starts out against the Wild's checking line (Radiovojewkkwjsndfalks, Villieux...)
Anyone ever wonder why they tell you the name of the linesmen at the start of the game?
18:30 - The two forth lines face each and Dustin Boyd draws a hooking penalty. PP Calgary.
18:00 - GOAL! Langkow bangs home a rebound in the slot, staking the Flames to the early lead.
16:00 - Two straight shifts of Flames pressure punctuated by a couple of great chances for the Yelle line (Yelle/Primeau/Moss). Of course, they can't convert. The 4th lines meet again and this time Boyd is penalized for a high stick. PP Wild.
15:00 - Regehr and Sarich get chasing the puck on the PK and lose a man in front of the net. Bad, bad read, particularly by Regehr who was the second man in the corner. Fedoruk capitalizes and it's tied up.
Not a good start for a shut-down pair that has looked really, really mortal recently (thinking of the Vancouver loss here).
14:00 - Wild shoot the puck in and it hits Eriksson in the back. The puck drops at his feet and the Radivojevic grabs it and goes in alone. Luckily he's stopped by Kipper in close.
12:00 - Yelle draws a tripping penalty and the Flames go on their 2nd PP.
30 seconds in and the best chance goes to the Wild's Koivu who almost makes Aucoin look silly during a rush.
The Lombardi line comes out and generates some chances. The ref loses sight of the puck during a goalmouth scramble and prematurely blows the whistle killing the play. The Lombo unit has looked good so far.
The Iginla line gets the last 30 second of the PP and does nothing with it.
8:00 - Looks like Lemaire has targeted the Lombardi line and is sending Gaborik/Demitra out against them (perhaps more due to the presence of Juice than Nolan or Matthew). Nothing has come of it yet.
6:00 - Huselius and a Wild defender fall during a puck race into the corner and the zebras whistle Juice for "holding". Sigh. PP Wild.
Anders Eriksson is out there, even though he should not be killing penalties. It stuns me that Keenan hasn't figured this out yet. Jim Vandermeer has looked more capable in this regard since we acquired him.
Wild get a chance or two but dont pot one.
3:30 - The Iginla line has done sweet FA at ES so far and will need to be much better if Flames want to win this one.
3:00 - Vandermeer misses the puck in the neutral zone, resulting in a 2on1. Wild get a good shot but fail to get the rebound, thankfully.
1:30 - Phaneuf destroys Vellieux with an open ice hit, resulting in a penalty to Dion and a fight with Brent Burns. It turns into quite the spirited affair with both players getting good shots in.
Even though Shultz took an extra shot at Phaneuf after the play AND Burns jumped in to start the fight (uuuhhh...instigator??), the only extra 2 minutes goes to Dion for "interference". Ridiculous. PP wild.
Tanguay and Lombardi generate a 2on1 in the waning seconds, but Alex passes the puck into his skates. Period ends 1-1.
So-so period. First half was better than the 2nd from a Flames perspective. I'd say the balance of chances went to the Wild, thanks mainly to their 3-1 PP advantage.
There was a sequence near the end of the first that perfectly reflected the major problems the Flames have on the back-end:
Minnesota shoots the puck in and goes off to change. Regehr gathers the puck around the half boards and sends it over to Sarich. The pass is sort of weak and bouncing and Sarich mishandles it. It drifts towards the boards and now there's a lone forechecker bearing down on him. Cory kind of panics and shoots the puck through the forechecker's legs, back towards Regehr. Of course, the puck is 2 feet in front of Reggie, so he fumbles to get control of it. At this point, the Wild have completed their change and coming at the Flames at full speed.
So we go from what should have been a routine 1-2 pass into the neutral zone (ie; an easy break-out) to a clumsy exchange that causes the Flames to lose possession. This type of stuff seems to happen with the Flames A LOT.
20:00 - Course, Flames start on the PK. Lombardi+Nolan have been the new 1st PK unit so far.
19:00 - Wild get a hooking penalty, but Boyd lifts the puck over the glass in his own end. 4 on 4 is the result.
18:00 - Gabbers slashes Vandermeer's stick in half...and Vandermeer gets the penalty! In fact, Vandermeer had the puck...but goes off slashing anyways. WTF!!
4on3 for the Wild.
Flames get caught on a bad change and the Wild get a glorious chance on a 3on1. Kipper slides across and makes an astonishing pad stop on Gaborik.
Flames kill the penalties and we're back to 5on5. Iginla line gets the shift after the PK.
14:00 - Boogaard slashes the stick out of Yelle's hands in the offensive zone........no call.
It's going to be "one of those nights" I fear.
13:00 - Anders Eriksson over-commits towards the boards during a Wild rush into the Flames zone (as he so often does. See Edmonton's first goal last game) and ends up getting beat and taking a hooking penalty. Another Minny PP.
Lombardi and Tanguay with some stellar PKing. PP ends without incident.
10:00 - Iginla and Huselius get a 2on1 thanks to a decent pass by Vandermeer. Jarome blasts it wide, which is something he's done way too much the last 2 games.
8:30 - Fedoruk gets a partial break thanks to a bad read the poor skating of Adrian Aucoin. Kipper stymies him though.
That's right. Fedoruk is as fast - or faster - than Aucoin.
5:30 - Flames are hanging on at this point in the period. Two straight icings.
5:00 - Gaborik gets the puck alone in front but is stopped from getting a shot by a diving Lombardi. Great play.
4:00 - Eriksson with an ill-advised pinch leads to a near odd-man break. Luckily the shot goes wide.
God Eriksson sucks.
2:30 - Adrian Aucoin shoots the puck into a block for the 20th time tonight, nearly leading to break-away for Minnesota. Kipper comes way out and clears the puck before the Wild player can get there.
Also...Aucoin has been brutal tonight.
Not a very good period for Calgary, although that was assisted by the, uh..."curious" officiating. While the Flames have more shots, the Wild have clearly had the better scoring chances. On the bright side, Kipper has been stellar and the game is tied going into the 3rd.
On the not so bright side, the Flames big guns have been pretty ineffective so far. The Iggy line had maybe 2 ES shifts that generated anything resembling scoring chances. Jarome looks locked into one of those phases where he can't seem to get shots on net or fight through the traffic like he can when he's on a roll.
John Garrett talking about the Flames, saying "when the Flames have their offense going, you see Dion Phaneuf jumping into the play...CORY SARICH jumping into the play..."
Cory Sarich? Really John? Im going to have to assume that you were on the spot and just throwing a name out there. not only does Sarich never, ever, EVER jump into the play, he'd be useless if he ever did.
Apparently, Washington won AGAIN tonight 4-1. Ovechkin with another two goals, giving him an astounding 65 on the year. That about wraps up the Hart for him I'd say, if there was any doubt left. If they make it into the post-season, Im going to declare the Caps my "Eastern" team.
In other good news, Sens beating the crap out the Leafs 8-2.
20:00 - The Iginla line starts the third and get a good chance...but fail to even geta shot on net (Tanguay passes it off, as he tends to do).
We're told Yelle has left the game due to a Boogaard hit.
19:00 - Aucoin gets beat - again - in the neutral zone and this time Gaborik makes the Flames play.
Aucoin has been the worst Flame on the ice tonight. He turns what should be a routine play in the neutral zone into a break-away for the most dangerous adversary on the ice.
18:00 - Alex Tangya sets up Jarome at the side of the net, but, predictaby at this point, Iginla can't bury the chance.
The Wild take a holding penalty shortly thereafter and the Flames go on the PP. Go to hope for something here, cuz the Wild are going to be stifling at ES.
Both Flame units generate quality chances, but can't score. Encouraging, but ultimately useless.
15:00 - Gaborik stuffs a puck in during a scramble, but the goal is initially waved off (whistle went first?). Going upstairs to check, though.
Honestly, that looks like a goal to me.
Wow...Flames get a huge break and the original call stands. Hopefully they can take advantage and tie the game up.
14:00 - For the 3rd time this game, Tanguay passes the puck off in a prime scoring area, resulting in an opportunity lost. Rough game for Alex.
Iginla and crew look unsually slow tonight to my eye. Is that just me?
Looks like the Preds are ahead of the Blues 3-2 in the third. No help there.
10:00 - Lomabrdi goes end-to-end with an impressive individual effort, but can't make anything of it. He and Phaneuf seem to be the only two that can gain the zone with the puck on their stick.
9:30 - Cory "Minor" Sarich almost gets beaten by Rolston but ends up giving him the ol' can-opener and takes what seems like his 500th penalty this year. PP Wild, their 6th of the game.
Flames will have about 7 minutes to tie it up...assuming they kill this one off. Sorry folks, I dont have a good feeling about this game.
7:00 - Annnd...with Eriksson and Phaneuf killing the penalty, Gaborik rifles home a shot from the slot. You can pretty much stick a fork into this one I'd say.
5:30 - With the Flames looking to get back into it, the Wild are the ones getting the chances. Rolston fires one just wide from the top of the circles. Flames ice the puck shortly thereafter.
5:00 - The Iginla line keeps getting stifled at the offensive blueline. Minny is all over Jarome and he looks impotent and frustrated.
2:00 - Flames lack of a transition game and the Wild's trap is completely nullifying any potential attack.
Calgary can't even get out of their own end at this point. This baby's over.
0:00 - Gabbers had a chance at the open net, but missed. Wild win nonetheless.
Minnesota wins their first division banner. Calgary never really had a chance to win this one: aside from the first 10 minutes, they were pretty consistently the 2nd best team on the ice. Gaborik vastly outplayed Iginla in this big game, with the help of some very poor performances from the Flames back-end - notably Adrian Aucoin, who looks more and more like a big, fat $4M anchor for next year.
Flames now have the unenviable task of a.) trying to clinch a play-off spot in vancouver on Saturday and b.) potentially facing SJS or DET in the play-offs. Very, very poor result for Calgary tonight.
Now we are forced to cheer for an Edmonton win over the Nucks.
Go Oil!
Calgary won their last game, but I gotta say it looked more like fortune than ability. A great Kipper and 3 fortuitous bounces eliminated the Oilers from play-off eligibility. It'll take more than that to claim the victory tonight I think.
FIRST PERIOD
20:00 - The Langkow line starts out against the Wild's checking line (Radiovojewkkwjsndfalks, Villieux...)
Anyone ever wonder why they tell you the name of the linesmen at the start of the game?
18:30 - The two forth lines face each and Dustin Boyd draws a hooking penalty. PP Calgary.
18:00 - GOAL! Langkow bangs home a rebound in the slot, staking the Flames to the early lead.
16:00 - Two straight shifts of Flames pressure punctuated by a couple of great chances for the Yelle line (Yelle/Primeau/Moss). Of course, they can't convert. The 4th lines meet again and this time Boyd is penalized for a high stick. PP Wild.
15:00 - Regehr and Sarich get chasing the puck on the PK and lose a man in front of the net. Bad, bad read, particularly by Regehr who was the second man in the corner. Fedoruk capitalizes and it's tied up.
Not a good start for a shut-down pair that has looked really, really mortal recently (thinking of the Vancouver loss here).
14:00 - Wild shoot the puck in and it hits Eriksson in the back. The puck drops at his feet and the Radivojevic grabs it and goes in alone. Luckily he's stopped by Kipper in close.
12:00 - Yelle draws a tripping penalty and the Flames go on their 2nd PP.
30 seconds in and the best chance goes to the Wild's Koivu who almost makes Aucoin look silly during a rush.
The Lombardi line comes out and generates some chances. The ref loses sight of the puck during a goalmouth scramble and prematurely blows the whistle killing the play. The Lombo unit has looked good so far.
The Iginla line gets the last 30 second of the PP and does nothing with it.
8:00 - Looks like Lemaire has targeted the Lombardi line and is sending Gaborik/Demitra out against them (perhaps more due to the presence of Juice than Nolan or Matthew). Nothing has come of it yet.
6:00 - Huselius and a Wild defender fall during a puck race into the corner and the zebras whistle Juice for "holding". Sigh. PP Wild.
Anders Eriksson is out there, even though he should not be killing penalties. It stuns me that Keenan hasn't figured this out yet. Jim Vandermeer has looked more capable in this regard since we acquired him.
Wild get a chance or two but dont pot one.
3:30 - The Iginla line has done sweet FA at ES so far and will need to be much better if Flames want to win this one.
3:00 - Vandermeer misses the puck in the neutral zone, resulting in a 2on1. Wild get a good shot but fail to get the rebound, thankfully.
1:30 - Phaneuf destroys Vellieux with an open ice hit, resulting in a penalty to Dion and a fight with Brent Burns. It turns into quite the spirited affair with both players getting good shots in.
Even though Shultz took an extra shot at Phaneuf after the play AND Burns jumped in to start the fight (uuuhhh...instigator??), the only extra 2 minutes goes to Dion for "interference". Ridiculous. PP wild.
Tanguay and Lombardi generate a 2on1 in the waning seconds, but Alex passes the puck into his skates. Period ends 1-1.
So-so period. First half was better than the 2nd from a Flames perspective. I'd say the balance of chances went to the Wild, thanks mainly to their 3-1 PP advantage.
There was a sequence near the end of the first that perfectly reflected the major problems the Flames have on the back-end:
Minnesota shoots the puck in and goes off to change. Regehr gathers the puck around the half boards and sends it over to Sarich. The pass is sort of weak and bouncing and Sarich mishandles it. It drifts towards the boards and now there's a lone forechecker bearing down on him. Cory kind of panics and shoots the puck through the forechecker's legs, back towards Regehr. Of course, the puck is 2 feet in front of Reggie, so he fumbles to get control of it. At this point, the Wild have completed their change and coming at the Flames at full speed.
So we go from what should have been a routine 1-2 pass into the neutral zone (ie; an easy break-out) to a clumsy exchange that causes the Flames to lose possession. This type of stuff seems to happen with the Flames A LOT.
2ND PERIOD
20:00 - Course, Flames start on the PK. Lombardi+Nolan have been the new 1st PK unit so far.
19:00 - Wild get a hooking penalty, but Boyd lifts the puck over the glass in his own end. 4 on 4 is the result.
18:00 - Gabbers slashes Vandermeer's stick in half...and Vandermeer gets the penalty! In fact, Vandermeer had the puck...but goes off slashing anyways. WTF!!
4on3 for the Wild.
Flames get caught on a bad change and the Wild get a glorious chance on a 3on1. Kipper slides across and makes an astonishing pad stop on Gaborik.
Flames kill the penalties and we're back to 5on5. Iginla line gets the shift after the PK.
14:00 - Boogaard slashes the stick out of Yelle's hands in the offensive zone........no call.
It's going to be "one of those nights" I fear.
13:00 - Anders Eriksson over-commits towards the boards during a Wild rush into the Flames zone (as he so often does. See Edmonton's first goal last game) and ends up getting beat and taking a hooking penalty. Another Minny PP.
Lombardi and Tanguay with some stellar PKing. PP ends without incident.
10:00 - Iginla and Huselius get a 2on1 thanks to a decent pass by Vandermeer. Jarome blasts it wide, which is something he's done way too much the last 2 games.
8:30 - Fedoruk gets a partial break thanks to a bad read the poor skating of Adrian Aucoin. Kipper stymies him though.
That's right. Fedoruk is as fast - or faster - than Aucoin.
5:30 - Flames are hanging on at this point in the period. Two straight icings.
5:00 - Gaborik gets the puck alone in front but is stopped from getting a shot by a diving Lombardi. Great play.
4:00 - Eriksson with an ill-advised pinch leads to a near odd-man break. Luckily the shot goes wide.
God Eriksson sucks.
2:30 - Adrian Aucoin shoots the puck into a block for the 20th time tonight, nearly leading to break-away for Minnesota. Kipper comes way out and clears the puck before the Wild player can get there.
Also...Aucoin has been brutal tonight.
Not a very good period for Calgary, although that was assisted by the, uh..."curious" officiating. While the Flames have more shots, the Wild have clearly had the better scoring chances. On the bright side, Kipper has been stellar and the game is tied going into the 3rd.
On the not so bright side, the Flames big guns have been pretty ineffective so far. The Iggy line had maybe 2 ES shifts that generated anything resembling scoring chances. Jarome looks locked into one of those phases where he can't seem to get shots on net or fight through the traffic like he can when he's on a roll.
John Garrett talking about the Flames, saying "when the Flames have their offense going, you see Dion Phaneuf jumping into the play...CORY SARICH jumping into the play..."
Cory Sarich? Really John? Im going to have to assume that you were on the spot and just throwing a name out there. not only does Sarich never, ever, EVER jump into the play, he'd be useless if he ever did.
Apparently, Washington won AGAIN tonight 4-1. Ovechkin with another two goals, giving him an astounding 65 on the year. That about wraps up the Hart for him I'd say, if there was any doubt left. If they make it into the post-season, Im going to declare the Caps my "Eastern" team.
In other good news, Sens beating the crap out the Leafs 8-2.
3RD PERIOD
20:00 - The Iginla line starts the third and get a good chance...but fail to even geta shot on net (Tanguay passes it off, as he tends to do).
We're told Yelle has left the game due to a Boogaard hit.
19:00 - Aucoin gets beat - again - in the neutral zone and this time Gaborik makes the Flames play.
Aucoin has been the worst Flame on the ice tonight. He turns what should be a routine play in the neutral zone into a break-away for the most dangerous adversary on the ice.
18:00 - Alex Tangya sets up Jarome at the side of the net, but, predictaby at this point, Iginla can't bury the chance.
The Wild take a holding penalty shortly thereafter and the Flames go on the PP. Go to hope for something here, cuz the Wild are going to be stifling at ES.
Both Flame units generate quality chances, but can't score. Encouraging, but ultimately useless.
15:00 - Gaborik stuffs a puck in during a scramble, but the goal is initially waved off (whistle went first?). Going upstairs to check, though.
Honestly, that looks like a goal to me.
Wow...Flames get a huge break and the original call stands. Hopefully they can take advantage and tie the game up.
14:00 - For the 3rd time this game, Tanguay passes the puck off in a prime scoring area, resulting in an opportunity lost. Rough game for Alex.
Iginla and crew look unsually slow tonight to my eye. Is that just me?
Looks like the Preds are ahead of the Blues 3-2 in the third. No help there.
10:00 - Lomabrdi goes end-to-end with an impressive individual effort, but can't make anything of it. He and Phaneuf seem to be the only two that can gain the zone with the puck on their stick.
9:30 - Cory "Minor" Sarich almost gets beaten by Rolston but ends up giving him the ol' can-opener and takes what seems like his 500th penalty this year. PP Wild, their 6th of the game.
Flames will have about 7 minutes to tie it up...assuming they kill this one off. Sorry folks, I dont have a good feeling about this game.
7:00 - Annnd...with Eriksson and Phaneuf killing the penalty, Gaborik rifles home a shot from the slot. You can pretty much stick a fork into this one I'd say.
5:30 - With the Flames looking to get back into it, the Wild are the ones getting the chances. Rolston fires one just wide from the top of the circles. Flames ice the puck shortly thereafter.
5:00 - The Iginla line keeps getting stifled at the offensive blueline. Minny is all over Jarome and he looks impotent and frustrated.
2:00 - Flames lack of a transition game and the Wild's trap is completely nullifying any potential attack.
Calgary can't even get out of their own end at this point. This baby's over.
0:00 - Gabbers had a chance at the open net, but missed. Wild win nonetheless.
Minnesota wins their first division banner. Calgary never really had a chance to win this one: aside from the first 10 minutes, they were pretty consistently the 2nd best team on the ice. Gaborik vastly outplayed Iginla in this big game, with the help of some very poor performances from the Flames back-end - notably Adrian Aucoin, who looks more and more like a big, fat $4M anchor for next year.
Flames now have the unenviable task of a.) trying to clinch a play-off spot in vancouver on Saturday and b.) potentially facing SJS or DET in the play-offs. Very, very poor result for Calgary tonight.
Now we are forced to cheer for an Edmonton win over the Nucks.
Go Oil!
Flames in Minny pregame
Lots to throw against the wall in this post.
Let's get the rumor-mongering out of the way. According to this guy, the Flames have extended Daymond Langkow with a 4 year, $20M contract that includes the dreaded NTC.
Assuming this is true (pretty big assumption at this point - I mean, why is the Edmonton journal breaking this story?), my gut reaction is: too much and the NTC is a bad idea. With the added 5M, the Flames climb to about 50M in cap space committed to next year...with Huselius, Nolan, Conroy, Yelle and Hale all needing the re-signed or replaced. Sutter either has some grandly cheap, good-value players under his sleeve (doubtful) or he's planning to trim a lot of the fat in the off-season if this report proves accurate.
Anyways, on to tonight. Flames face the Wild in Minnesota in what is the first actual must win game since the final match against Detroit last April. If you've been following any of the Flames links on the right, you'd know it's possible for the boys to place anywhere from 3rd to 9th in the conference and that their most likely first round opponent right now is the San Jose Sharks (ugh). A victory tonight makes winning the NW a bit more probable, thereby making a meeting with the formidable Sharks in the first round a little less so.
On the flip side, a loss this evening would not only cement the Flames into "7th or worse" territory and ensure them a visit to either San Jose or Detroit to start the post-season, it would also bring them one step closer to falling out of the play-off picture entirely. The prospect of playing the Canucks for the 8th and final position on Saturday is...unpleasant to say the least, particularly in light of the recent 6-2 debacle.
So yeah...the "must win!" cliche isn't hyperbolic in this instance (how big is that terrible loss to the Atlanta Thrashers a few weeks back looking right now?).
I guess the good news is: the Flames and Jarome Iginla pwn! the Wild this year. There probably isn't a better adversary for Calgary to be facing in these circumstances this season. Minnesota is the only team in the NW the Flames have a winning record against and Iggy's best career numbers come against the unfortunate Minnesotans. So, you know...there's that.
Line-up notes: nothing deifnitive so far. I assume Conroy is still injured and Godard will be in to face Boogaard and Eriksson will again be fouling things up beside Phaneuf (double ugh).
Less certain is where Lombardi lands tonight. The Juice-Lombo-Nolan trio was the best forward unit last game in my not-so-humble opinion, so Im hoping Keenan keeps them intact. As a quick aside, has anyone else noticed the apparent chemistry between Lombardi and Nolan whenever they've played together this year? Is that just me?
Im considering liveblogging the game this evening. Partially because of it's enormous importance and partially because the first/last liveblog (also versus the Wild) went so well (in terms of the game's outcome). Seems ripe territory for either vainglorious celebrating or bitter, expletive-filled lamentations. Entertaining either way I figure.
Prediction - Flames lose just to make this end of the road an even bigger shitstorm than it is already (also, Jarome gets his 50th).
Prove me wrong Calgary! Prove me wrong.
Let's get the rumor-mongering out of the way. According to this guy, the Flames have extended Daymond Langkow with a 4 year, $20M contract that includes the dreaded NTC.
Assuming this is true (pretty big assumption at this point - I mean, why is the Edmonton journal breaking this story?), my gut reaction is: too much and the NTC is a bad idea. With the added 5M, the Flames climb to about 50M in cap space committed to next year...with Huselius, Nolan, Conroy, Yelle and Hale all needing the re-signed or replaced. Sutter either has some grandly cheap, good-value players under his sleeve (doubtful) or he's planning to trim a lot of the fat in the off-season if this report proves accurate.
Anyways, on to tonight. Flames face the Wild in Minnesota in what is the first actual must win game since the final match against Detroit last April. If you've been following any of the Flames links on the right, you'd know it's possible for the boys to place anywhere from 3rd to 9th in the conference and that their most likely first round opponent right now is the San Jose Sharks (ugh). A victory tonight makes winning the NW a bit more probable, thereby making a meeting with the formidable Sharks in the first round a little less so.
On the flip side, a loss this evening would not only cement the Flames into "7th or worse" territory and ensure them a visit to either San Jose or Detroit to start the post-season, it would also bring them one step closer to falling out of the play-off picture entirely. The prospect of playing the Canucks for the 8th and final position on Saturday is...unpleasant to say the least, particularly in light of the recent 6-2 debacle.
So yeah...the "must win!" cliche isn't hyperbolic in this instance (how big is that terrible loss to the Atlanta Thrashers a few weeks back looking right now?).
I guess the good news is: the Flames and Jarome Iginla pwn! the Wild this year. There probably isn't a better adversary for Calgary to be facing in these circumstances this season. Minnesota is the only team in the NW the Flames have a winning record against and Iggy's best career numbers come against the unfortunate Minnesotans. So, you know...there's that.
Line-up notes: nothing deifnitive so far. I assume Conroy is still injured and Godard will be in to face Boogaard and Eriksson will again be fouling things up beside Phaneuf (double ugh).
Less certain is where Lombardi lands tonight. The Juice-Lombo-Nolan trio was the best forward unit last game in my not-so-humble opinion, so Im hoping Keenan keeps them intact. As a quick aside, has anyone else noticed the apparent chemistry between Lombardi and Nolan whenever they've played together this year? Is that just me?
Im considering liveblogging the game this evening. Partially because of it's enormous importance and partially because the first/last liveblog (also versus the Wild) went so well (in terms of the game's outcome). Seems ripe territory for either vainglorious celebrating or bitter, expletive-filled lamentations. Entertaining either way I figure.
Prediction - Flames lose just to make this end of the road an even bigger shitstorm than it is already (also, Jarome gets his 50th).
Prove me wrong Calgary! Prove me wrong.
Upon winners and their efforts
A little (NSFW) food for thought from Sean Connery for the Flames heading into tonight:
Tuesday, April 01, 2008
Last of the BoA
Last April around this time, the Flames had a golden opportunity to claim a play-off spot by beating a woeful Oilers club, which they squandered. Instead, Edmonton ended up with their only regulation win in the last 30 games of the season (if I recall correctly).
Calgary backed into a post-season berth anyways thanks to an Avalanche loss to the Preds, but the defeat to Greasers was a harbinger of things to come.
And here we are again, one year later. The NW division crown is pretty much beyond the Flames reach and all that's left now is a mad scramble to ensure some sort of play-off appearance. And Edmonton is once again the obstacle, although this time they are one of the hottest teams in the league rather than a weak sister. Hardly ideal circumstances.
Calgary's obvious objective now is to avoid placing 7th or 8th in the conference: sixth means seeing Minnesota in the first round instead of SJS or DET, thereby increasing the chances of a first round victory (or least a 7 game series) significantly. It's becoming ever clearer, from the shitty special teams to the negative GD to the recent swoon, that the Flames would be mere cannon fodder before juggernauts like the Sharks or the Wings in April. Against the Wild, at least, Calgary has a fighting chance to make things interesting.
Bitching points:
- I've raised this issue a couple times this year, but it bears re-examination after the Canucks game: why is Eric Godard in the line-up? He's a huge liability any time he takes the ice. He can't score, pass or skate and, guess what...HE DOESN'T ABLY DETER PESTS. All season, agitators like Burrows, Kesler and Ott have run amok with impunity:
Mike Keenan is a little ticked that Jarome Iginla and Dion Phaneuf allowes themselves to get sucked in by Canucks pests Alexandre Burrows and Ryan Kesler, among others, on Sunday. The way the coach puts it, he doesn't want to see his stars go into the box with players "not of equal value."
That from Inside the Flames. And Keenan's right, of couse. Except he should be questioning the value of the "enforcer" that he dresses on a nightly basis. An "enforcer" that does little more than occasionally fight other useless goons and gets pinned in his own end of the rink for long periods of time. Honestly, WTF is the point? Particularly when facing clubs like Vancouver who don't even possess a heavyweight of their own?
Baffling.
- Craig Conroy is likely a scratch tonight, thanks to an "upper-body" injury sustained against the 'Nucks. And that may not be such a bad thing. Before he got hurt, Conroy was playing terribly: his last 10 games, Connie mananged just 6 shots on net, 2 points and a -3 rating. His performance against the Oil on HNIC was especially appalling; he spent the entire evening giving the puck away in the defensive zone and singlehandedly killing offensive zone cycles. Also, Lombardi has stepped up and scored 2 goals in the last two games, in part thanks to increased ice-time in the top 6.
- Speaking of slumps, check out Owen Nolan's: his last goal came against LA on February 15th (21 games) and he has all of 1 assist in his last 7 matches.
With Huselius getting the stink eye and guys like Conroy and Nolan showing their age, it's no wonder the offense has totally dried up recently.
- Can we officially declare Sunday Night the worst game of the season for Robyn Regehr? He was on for 5 of the Canucks 6 goals, two of those coming from Vancouver's 4th line. In addition, Naslund's last-minute tying marker in the first period was a direct result of Reggie's boobery: he failed to intercept a stretch-pass in the neutral zone, resulting in a Vancouver 2on1, and then failed to take Naslund out of the play after the initial shot on net. I guess the good news is, there's NO WAY Regehr plays like that again any time soon.
Anyways, Prediction time - The Flames will finally pull one out of the fire. 3-2 Calgary. Iginla, Lombardi and Primeau for Calgary. Cogliano and Gilbert for the Oil.
Go Flames.
Update - Matt ABLY elucidates why Godard should be a healthy scratch in his pregame post.
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